A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

All the hype, and anticipation of Casas being at 1B in a Red Sox uniform is here. Everyone wanted Raffy resigned, and he was. Most were giddy over the Yoshida signing. What’s not to like?

 

Giddy when? People got excited when he played well during the WBC. Before then, he was still a big unknown that we hadn't seen.

[moonslav59]

Giddy when? People got excited when he played well during the WBC. Before then, he was still a big unknown that we hadn't seen.

 

I remember most questioning the signing and the high price tag.

 

A few said it looked like a good signing.

 

Revisionist history on display, again.

 

Here is the first page of the Yoshida thread. Totally full of "giddiness."

[notin]

With all due respect to all of you, Henry did not spend $300M NOT to have Devers at 3B for the Sox. Stop it!!!!!!!

 

Actually in the negotiations the Sox initial offer was reportedly close to what the Braves offered Matt Olson because the Sox felt that was a good positional comparison. So I think they did spend that much money with the plan of eventually moving him off third.

 

If you ask me (which no one does), the perfect time to move Devers is when there is a readily available defensive replacement handy. I won’t name any names. Let’s just call him Chatt Mapman…

[moonslav59]

Actually in the negotiations the Sox initial offer was reportedly close to what the Braves offered Matt Olson because the Sox felt that was a good positional comparison. So I think they did spend that much money with the plan of eventually moving him off third.

 

If you ask me (which no one does), the perfect time to move Devers is when there is a readily available defensive replacement handy. I won’t name any names. Let’s just call him Chatt Mapman…

 

I keep wondering why one of the 60 SSs we've drafted can't play 3B.

[notin]

I keep wondering why one of the 60 SSs we've drafted can't play 3B.

 

Some of the A ball guys will move around eventually. But Matt Lugo has been playing 3b. I believe Cutter Coffey is as well…

[moonslav59]

Some of the A ball guys will move around eventually. But Matt Lugo has been playing 3b. I believe Cutter Coffey is as well…

 

We could play Urias at 3B.

[notin]

We could play Urias at 3B.

 

I would wager Devers over Urias…

[moonslav59]

I would wager Devers over Urias…

 

Of course.

 

We are not moving Devers to 1B, even if we did not have Casas at 1B. It's less than a 1% chance, but that won't stop me from voicing my opinion.

 

I'm not sure how good Urias is at 3B, of if Reyes is for real and can be a FT 2Bman in 2024. Lots of ifs. Too many.

 

I do wonder about maybe 2025:

 

3B: Story

SS: Mayer

2B: Urias/Reyes/Yorke

1B: Devers/Casas

DH: Casas/Yoshida

LF: Yoshida/Duran/Refsnyder

[Maxbialystock]

Of course.

 

We are not moving Devers to 1B, even if we did not have Casas at 1B. It's less than a 1% chance, but that won't stop me from voicing my opinion.

 

I'm not sure how good Urias is at 3B, of if Reyes is for real and can be a FT 2Bman in 2024. Lots of ifs. Too many.

 

I do wonder about maybe 2025:

 

3B: Story

SS: Mayer

2B: Urias/Reyes/Yorke

1B: Devers/Casas

DH: Casas/Yoshida

LF: Yoshida/Duran/Refsnyder

 

I think this is a silly discussion about finding a third baseman because historically, especially during the JH era, the Sox have always preferred hitters over fielders at just about every position. Devers is far from a disaster at 3b if DWAR (-0.3) means anything at all.

 

Devers' DWAR in 2018 was -0.9, but he started every freaking game in the postseason because he could hit and because he is not a disaster at 3b.

 

Same goes for Bogey, an adequate fielder, but an excellent hitter. Casas's DWAR right now is -0.9 but we all love him because his OPS is over .800.

 

Story in just 8 games has a solid DWAR of +0.3, and some of us hate him because he hasn't starting hitting yet. His OPS is .518. He is not, repeat, not winning freaking games for the Sox with his defense.

[Maxbialystock]

I keep wondering why one of the 60 SSs we've drafted can't play 3B.

 

Simple. As I've already explained, if you can't hit for the Sox, you can't play for them. If any on those 60 freaking SS's can hit at an OPS .877 clip in the majors, maybe he could replace Devers at 3b.

[Nick]

I think this is a silly discussion about finding a third baseman because historically, especially during the JH era, the Sox have always preferred hitters over fielders at just about every position. Devers is far from a disaster at 3b if DWAR (-0.3) means anything at all.

 

Devers' DWAR in 2018 was -0.9, but he started every freaking game in the postseason because he could hit and because he is not a disaster at 3b.

 

Same goes for Bogey, an adequate fielder, but an excellent hitter. Casas's DWAR right now is -0.9 but we all love him because his OPS is over .800.

 

Story in just 8 games has a solid DWAR of +0.3, and some of us hate him because he hasn't starting hitting yet. His OPS is .518. He is not, repeat, not winning freaking games for the Sox with his defense.

Yep...you are absolutely correct

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Of course.

 

We are not moving Devers to 1B, even if we did not have Casas at 1B. It's less than a 1% chance, but that won't stop me from voicing my opinion.

 

I'm not sure how good Urias is at 3B, of if Reyes is for real and can be a FT 2Bman in 2024. Lots of ifs. Too many.

 

I do wonder about maybe 2025:

 

3B: Story

SS: Mayer

2B: Urias/Reyes/Yorke

1B: Devers/Casas

DH: Casas/Yoshida

LF: Yoshida/Duran/Refsnyder

 

The only names on this list that may be good bets in Boston are Devers and Casas. I know others will still be under contract, but may be moved by then if somebody new is running things.

 

Mayer seems like a favorite for Fenway right now, but two factors may be put his status in doubt: 1. a possible major blockbuster trade by a new regime totally overhauling this franchise; 2. the surplus and development of "60" shortstop prospects drafted or signed in the Bloom Era, making anyone expendable...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yep...you are absolutely correct

 

"Story in just 8 games has a solid DWAR of +0.3, and some of us hate him because he hasn't starting hitting yet. His OPS is .518. He is not, repeat, not winning freaking games for the Sox with his defense."

 

That was a great line, summing up fandom...

[Bellhorn04]

"Story in just 8 games has a solid DWAR of +0.3, and some of us hate him because he hasn't starting hitting yet. His OPS is .518. He is not, repeat, not winning freaking games for the Sox with his defense."

 

That was a great line, summing up fandom...

 

As SPLINTER noted in the game thread, we don't have anyone who can both hit and field.

 

Does this sound like the start of a country song?

 

Our hitters can't field

And our fielders can't hit

[Bellhorn04]

Here is an interesting comp on August 20th:

 

Tax Budget 2023: (source: cots)

 

$256M DD's Phillies

67-57

 

$217M Bloom's Sox

66-58

 

Could be an interesting storyline for winter banter.

 

FanGraphs chances to make playoffs on August 23:

 

Phillies 87.7%

Red Sox 7.8%

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs chances to make playoffs on August 23:

 

Phillies 87.7%

Red Sox 7.8%

 

Wonder what the odds would be, if we switched divisions. (and schedules.)

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs chances to make playoffs on August 23:

 

Phillies 87.7%

Red Sox 7.8%

 

Red Sox should move to Nashville and get in a worse division.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox should move to Nashville and get in a worse division.

 

Wonder what the odds would be, if we switched divisions and or schedules.

[Bellhorn04]

Wonder what the odds would be, if we switched divisions. (and schedules.)

 

This kind of inequity has been going on forever.

 

The front office is supposed to take these things into account. The fact that the Sox are in a tough division was one more reason to make a better effort this offseason. They chose not to. Should we give them a pass for that?

[Old Red]

Red Sox should move to Nashville and get in a worse division.

 

The Red Sox have been in the same division since divisions came in play. When they’ve been good enough they’ve got into postseason, and when they haven’t been good enough they have sat home, and watched. To be the best you have to beat the best. Changing divisions just to have a better chance at advancing sounds like a loser to me.

[Bellhorn04]

Is complaining about unequal divisions kind of like being a...crybaby?

[Old Red]

Is complaining about unequal divisions kind of like being a...crybaby?

 

Good one! I hadn’t thought of that, but I would say that qualifies. I heard the same cry last year too.

[Nick]

Abreu went 2-3 with a double, replacing ejected Verdugo.

[notin]

Is complaining about unequal divisions kind of like being a...crybaby?

 

Is not taking them into account realistic?

 

I mean, if we look at W-L records, is Philly that much better than Boston that it explains the 80% difference in postseason likelihood?

 

The reality of the situation is since Dombrowski took over Philadelphia, the two teams have nearly identical W-L records. But one you call a success and the other a failure. And then you refute the clear and obvious reason why. Or are you just simply that much more dazzled that Philly has one more win over 2+ years?

[moonslav59]

This kind of inequity has been going on forever.

 

The front office is supposed to take these things into account. The fact that the Sox are in a tough division was one more reason to make a better effort this offseason. They chose not to. Should we give them a pass for that?

 

Nobody gets a pass, but it is clear what their top priority is and has been since we failed to make any big prospect trades or big signings from 2019's extensions to Sale & Bogey to the Story signing in March 2022. That was 3 years of squat, followed by 2 more years of a con game- pretending we were trying to build a top contender.

[moonslav59]

Is complaining about unequal divisions kind of like being a...crybaby?

 

Yess, if it was complaining, which I have done in the past.

 

I merely wondered what the odds would be, this time.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As SPLINTER noted in the game thread, we don't have anyone who can both hit and field.

 

Does this sound like the start of a country song?

 

Our hitters can't field

And our fielders can't hit

 

Our starters go short

Bullpen turns to...

 

Cold beer and guns in my pick-up truck!

[Bellhorn04]

Is not taking them into account realistic?

 

I mean, if we look at W-L records, is Philly that much better than Boston that it explains the 80% difference in postseason likelihood?

 

The reality of the situation is since Dombrowski took over Philadelphia, the two teams have nearly identical W-L records. But one you call a success and the other a failure. And then you refute the clear and obvious reason why. Or are you just simply that much more dazzled that Philly has one more win over 2+ years?

 

Nonsense, I didn't say any of this. You don't read other people's posts carefully at all. I have HIGHLIGHTED the luck factor.

 

But if we're going to fall back on the "tough division" excuse for not making playoffs and we're going to use that to pronounce Bloom's work a success, I'd say that's pretty pathetic.

[moonslav59]

Nonsense, I didn't say any of this, you're just reading your own biases into it. I have clearly stated that luck is a factor.

 

But if we're going to fall back on the "tough division" excuse for not making playoffs and we're going to use that to pronounce Bloom's work a success, I'd say that's pretty pathetic.

 

Who is saying Bloom's building of a MLB roster a success?

 

I don't think it is "pathetic" to say our ML roster might be as good as or better than Philly's or some other teams with slightly better records, who happen to play in easier divisions and or have easier or much easier schedules.

 

Yes, Bloom's job is to build a better team than at least 3 other ALE teams, in order to have a real shot at the playoffs. He's done it once in 3 years, and I'm not counting 2020. He has not been a success, in this way, but one can easily argue, he has built 2 or maybe 3 teams (2021 and 2023 and maybe '22) that were pretty good and might have made the playoffs by merely being placed in another division, I don't see that as "bad luck." Bad luck, to me, is having more injuries than other teams from players not viewed as injury prone, of getting bad calls by umps, or the sun was in Verdugo's eyes- that kind of thing.

 

One can argue we have not been as good or better than Philly, Minnesota, the Cubs or several other teams, despite not being "successful."

 

I brought up the DD- Bloom comp a couple days ago to show how similar the teams have been, but how wildly differently they are viewed due to a situation totally out of anybody on the Sox control. It's not excuse making. It's not proclaiming Bloom is a success. On 26 man roster construction, he has not been that. I have yet to hear one person say that, but there is a legion of posters who pretend there is a posse of posters who think Bloom shits gold bars.

[Old Red]

Nobody gets a pass, but it is clear what their top priority is and has been since we failed to make any big prospect trades or big signings from 2019's extensions to Sale & Bogey to the Story signing in March 2022. That was 3 years of squat, followed by 2 more years of a con game- pretending we were trying to build a top contender.

 

Did I not hear right when Bloom was doing his Awesome speech during the booing at the meet, and greet this past offseason. Did Bloom say when he took over the club the club the club was getting older, and would be going over a cliff, or did he say since I took over I’m going to take the Red Sox over a cliff?