A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

Does defensive metrics account for the damage done by a throwing error versus a fielding error?

 

Kike's bad throw allowed "2 base' error that led to giving up a run on the same play. It seems to me THAT error is worse than a fielding error.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

Where did you get the idea this team is in any way comparable to the 2004,2007,2013, or 2018 team?

 

In addition to better pitching and hitting—and bigger payrolls relative to other teams those years—they did not have three SS’s on the IL.

 

Also, Bogaert’s DWAR in 2018 was -1.0, near the bottom for MLB SS’s. Story’s was much higher. That’s the guy the Sox should have pursued if they wanted a good defensive SS who could also hit.

[Maxbialystock]

Does defensive metrics account for the damage done by a throwing error versus a fielding error?

 

Kike's bad throw allowed "2 base' error that led to giving up a run on the same play. It seems to me THAT error is worse than a fielding error.

 

OMG, talk about piling on. My rejoinder is that the single most disastrous play last night, by far, was Devers swing at a pitch well below the strike zone and tapping it back to the pitcher for an easy-peasy GIDP, pitcher to catcher to 1b with no run scoring after the Sox had the bases loaded with no one out.

[notin]

They both have a defined roster, a starting rotation, a starting lineup and a bullpen. Oh, and all of the members of the roster are paid to play baseball. They also wear uniforms and have bats, gloves and hats.

 

You sure they have bats?

[Old Red]

And we can call him Pablo Reyes, the replacementiest replacement player of all time…

 

Kike is on the bench tonight with Pablo at SS. Casas at DH, and Turner at 1B.

[notin]

OMG, talk about piling on. My rejoinder is that the single most disastrous play last night, by far, was Devers swing at a pitch well below the strike zone and tapping it back to the pitcher for an easy-peasy GIDP, pitcher to catcher to 1b with no run scoring after the Sox had the bases loaded with no one out.

 

The Sox committed 2 errors on run scoring plays, including the eventual game winner. On the other side, the only reason the game went to the tenth was that spectacular home-run-robbing grab by Nolan Jones in the 8th.

 

The Sox got out-gloved…

[notin]

Kike is on the bench tonight with Pablo at SS. Casas at DH, and Turner at 1B.

 

Sox are 5 games over .500 when Kike is not the SS…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Where did you get the idea this team is in any way comparable to the 2004,2007,2013, or 2018 team?

 

In addition to better pitching and hitting—and bigger payrolls relative to other teams those years—they did not have three SS’s on the IL.

 

It wasn't my idea. A poster claimed that Red Sox world champs of the recent past didn't really care much about shortstop defense, so I looked up their dWAR, and thought I'd share that they were all positive defenders with the board.

[mvp 78]

Sox are 5 games over .500 when Kike is not the SS…

 

Thanks, Cora.

[Dipre]

You sure they have bats?

 

With holes in 'em.

[Maxbialystock]

The Sox committed 2 errors on run scoring plays, including the eventual game winner. On the other side, the only reason the game went to the tenth was that spectacular home-run-robbing grab by Nolan Jones in the 8th.

 

The Sox got out-gloved…

 

Agree. But Devers bad swing at a bad pitch was still the most damaging play by the Sox last night.

[moonslav59]

They both have a defined roster, a starting rotation, a starting lineup and a bullpen. Oh, and all of the members of the roster are paid to play baseball. They also wear uniforms and have bats, gloves and hats.

 

LOL, they were all breathing, too!

[moonslav59]

The Sox committed 2 errors on run scoring plays, including the eventual game winner. On the other side, the only reason the game went to the tenth was that spectacular home-run-robbing grab by Nolan Jones in the 8th.

 

The Sox got out-gloved…

 

The Yanks took away a near homer from Devers, a couple games earlier.

 

It's not just our poor D that is hurting, it is other teams' plus D.

 

The chasm is enormous.

 

One big and valid criticism of Bloom is that his strategies seem to be all over the map. He trades Renfroe to improve the D and (Cora) refuses to play Dugo in RF, despite the disaster it became. Then, he trades for Pham, moves Dugo to RF and suddenly, Dugo is fine in RF.

 

I'm waiting for him (and Cora) to wake up on no Kike at SS, this year.

 

This year, I do think the plan was to improve SS defense, but it backfired. The idea was Casas would be much better than the Dalbec/Franchy calamity of 2022. It hasn't been much of an improvement. The OF was a punt on 3rd down, for defense. Had Duvall played LF, maybe it would not be horrific, and the miracle advance by Duran on D, made it not as bad as we might have expected. 2B was a know drop off, as Story moved to SS, but Kike/Arroyo are not bad at 2B. The catcher tandem has not met defensive expectations, although it was hard to know what to expect, there.

[vegasbob]

Saw video of him just throwing from 120' yesterday at Fenway.

 

It was Story himself who said, in effect, maybe DH'ing in July, SS not until August but he is waiting for his body to speak to him. Chang's spoke to him and in Mandarin or whatever he speaks, said YU, the hamate surgery is not healed. Sit down for another week , then rehab again, meaning to me July 1 or later.

[moonslav59]

Sox are 5 games over .500 when Kike is not the SS…

 

A playoff contender!

[Nick]

OMG, talk about piling on. My rejoinder is that the single most disastrous play last night, by far, was Devers swing at a pitch well below the strike zone and tapping it back to the pitcher for an easy-peasy GIDP, pitcher to catcher to 1b with no run scoring after the Sox had the bases loaded with no one out.

 

Jesus dude

 

It was a legit question. Commentators always talk about 12 of his errors are throwing errors.

 

If u don't know then u don't know.

[Maxbialystock]

It wasn't my idea. A poster claimed that Red Sox world champs of the recent past didn't really care much about shortstop defense, so I looked up their dWAR, and thought I'd share that they were all positive defenders with the board.

 

A fair point. However, of the four WS teams, y far the best was 2018, and that year Bogey’s DWAR was -1.0 among the lowest in MLB.

 

When I launched that tirade, my point was mostly that the Sox tend to retain infielders who can hit, especially SS’s, and to dump excellent fielding SS’s who can’t hit. Two who come to mind are Alex Gonzalez and Julio iglesias. Nomar and Bogey, both good hitting SS’s, stayed awhile.

 

Me, I prefer brilliant fielding SS’s, whether or not they can hit. Hitting is no doubt more important, but great fielding is much more fun to watch.

[moonslav59]

A fair point. However, of the four WS teams, y far the best was 2018, and that year Bogey’s DWAR was -1.0 among the lowest in MLB.

 

When I launched that tirade, my point was mostly that the Sox tend to retain infielders who can hit, especially SS’s, and to dump excellent fielding SS’s who can’t hit. Two who come to mind are Alex Gonzalez and Julio iglesias. Nomar and Bogey, both good hitting SS’s, stayed awhile.

 

Me, I prefer brilliant fielding SS’s, whether or not they can hit. Hitting is no doubt more important, but great fielding is much more fun to watch.

 

Great SS defense is one of my favorite things to watch. Too bad, it has often been our opponent's SS doing the spectacular.

 

The difference about this year, is that the surrounding cast sucks, too.

 

[Maxbialystock]

The Yanks took away a near homer from Devers, a couple games earlier.

 

It's not just our poor D that is hurting, it is other teams' plus D.

 

The chasm is enormous.

 

One big and valid criticism of Bloom is that his strategies seem to be all over the map. He trades Renfroe to improve the D and (Cora) refuses to play Dugo in RF, despite the disaster it became. Then, he trades for Pham, moves Dugo to RF and suddenly, Dugo is fine in RF.

 

I'm waiting for him (and Cora) to wake up on no Kike at SS, this year.

 

This year, I do think the plan was to improve SS defense, but it backfired. The idea was Casas would be much better than the Dalbec/Franchy calamity of 2022. It hasn't been much of an improvement. The OF was a punt on 3rd down, for defense. Had Duvall played LF, maybe it would not be horrific, and the miracle advance by Duran on D, made it not as bad as we might have expected. 2B was a know drop off, as Story moved to SS, but Kike/Arroyo are not bad at 2B. The catcher tandem has not met defensive expectations, although it was hard to know what to expect, there.

 

Sox 2018 team probably our best ever, but with these DWAR’s—

 

Nunez (119 games at 2b). -1.5

JDM. (57 games in OF). -1.4

Bogey. -1.0

Devers. -0.9

Benintendi. -0.6

Moreland. -0.5

Pearce. -0.4

Holt. -0.1

 

Vazquez. +0.2

Kinsler. +0.2

Bradley. +0.4

Leon. +0.9

Betts. + 1.8

 

Here’s are worst defense ever DWAR’s—

 

Yoshida -0.9

Casas. -0.9

Valdez. -.0.4

Turner. -0.4

Kike. -0.3

McGuire. -0.2

Duvall. -0.2

Refsnyder. -0.1

Arroyo. -0.1

Duran -0.1

Devers. -0.1

Reyes +0.2

Chang. +0.3

Verdugo. +0.7

Wong. +. 0.9

[notin]

Sox 2018 team probably our best ever, but with these DWAR’s—

 

Nunez (119 games at 2b). -1.5

JDM. (57 games in OF). -1.4

Bogey. -1.0

Devers. -0.9

Benintendi. -0.6

Moreland. -0.5

Pearce. -0.4

Holt. -0.1

 

Vazquez. +0.2

Kinsler. +0.2

Bradley. +0.4

Leon. +0.9

Betts. + 1.8

 

Here’s are worst defense ever DWAR’s—

 

Yoshida -0.9

Casas. -0.9

Valdez. -.0.4

Turner. -0.4

Kike. -0.3

McGuire. -0.2

Duvall. -0.2

Refsnyder. -0.1

Arroyo. -0.1

Duran -0.1

Devers. -0.1

Reyes +0.2

Chang. +0.3

Verdugo. +0.7

Wong. +. 0.9

 

For some context, DWAR is set against a league average. The base is rooted in UZR or DRS (depending on the source), and both of these numbers trend towards being cumulative. Long story short, limited playing time can negatively impact a players dWAR, which does make sense. No one adds defensive help from the bench.

 

For the Sox, this does mean part time players like Arroyo and Valdez would and should struggle to have positive defensive WAR contributions just due to playing time and regardless of fielding ability…

[moonslav59]

Team DRS since 2004

 

79 '17

69 '16

64 '12

51 '14

22 '13

18 '11

17 '08

10 '18

5 '19

4 '21

2 '07

1 '20 (short season pro-rates to about 2.5)

 

0 '10

 

-2 '15

-4 '22

-26 '04

-35 '05

-15 '23 (prorated to about -37)

-56 '09

-57 '06

 

UZR/150

7.2 '14

7.2 '08

6.7 '18

5.3 '11

5.2 '16

3.7 '23 (I don't know how.)

3.6 '12

0.6 to 3.3: '19, '17, '13, '07, '21, '20

-1.3 to -2.5: '05, '15, '06, '22, '10

Worst: -8.8 2004

 

Only 2004 was a minus D winning team.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Team DRS since 2004

 

79 '17

69 '16

64 '12

51 '14

22 '13

18 '11

17 '08

10 '18

5 '19

4 '21

2 '07

1 '20 (short season pro-rates to about 2.5)

 

0 '10

 

-2 '15

-4 '22

-26 '04

-35 '05

-15 '23 (prorated to about -37)

-56 '09

-57 '06

 

UZR/150

7.2 '14

7.2 '08

6.7 '18

5.3 '11

5.2 '16

3.7 '23 (I don't know how.)

3.6 '12

0.6 to 3.3: '19, '17, '13, '07, '21, '20

-1.3 to -2.5: '05, '15, '06, '22, '10

Worst: -8.8 2004

 

Only 2004 was a minus D winning team.

 

 

Do you agree our 2023 defense is not quite as bad as we say it is? In 2018 all four infielders—Devers, Bogey, Nunez, and Moreland—had negative DWAR’s.

[moonslav59]

Do you agree our 2023 defense is not quite as bad as we say it is? In 2018 all four infielders—Devers, Bogey, Nunez, and Moreland—had negative DWAR’s.

 

I think it has been worse than we say it is, but we’ve lucked out on not losing more games from poor D. If you count the games we lost from great D by our oops plus the ones we lost from bad D, it’s enough to maybe tie us for the last WC slot.

 

You are looking at dWAR from B-R, which is fine, but I trust fangraphs DRS and UZR/150 more, and they say 2018 was a plus on both counts.

[moonslav59]

DRS 2018 vs Pro-Rated 2023

 

1B

+ 5 Moreland

-15 Casas

 

2B

-12 Nunez

-8 Valdez, -2 Arroyo

 

3B

-11 Devers 2018

-5 Devers 2023

 

SS

-8 Bogey

-10 Kike, -2 Arroyo

[moonslav59]

Remember the "Black Holes in the Line Up" criticism?

 

Here are some interesting numbers:

 

All slots at .725 or lower are listed.

 

2018: Best Sox team ever!

.607 8th slot

.667 7th slot

.684 6th slot

.704 9th slot

 

2019:

.616 9th

.723 7th

.725 8th

 

2020: Maybe the worst Sox team I have seen live.

.638 8th

.678 9th

.711 7th

 

2021

.671 9th

.674 7th

 

2022:

.570 8th YUK!

.642 9th

.665 1st WOW!

.724 6th

 

2023:

.659 9th

.684 7th

.723 3rd WOW!

 

2021 and 2023 are the only 2 years with 2 slots below .723!

 

Not 2018 or 2019.

[Dipre]

A fair point. However, of the four WS teams, y far the best was 2018, and that year Bogey’s DWAR was -1.0 among the lowest in MLB.

 

When I launched that tirade, my point was mostly that the Sox tend to retain infielders who can hit, especially SS’s, and to dump excellent fielding SS’s who can’t hit. Two who come to mind are Alex Gonzalez and Julio iglesias. Nomar and Bogey, both good hitting SS’s, stayed awhile.

 

Me, I prefer brilliant fielding SS’s, whether or not they can hit. Hitting is no doubt more important, but great fielding is much more fun to watch.

 

So you're saying the Sox are not a fan of Julio's music?

[Dipre]

For some context, DWAR is set against a league average. The base is rooted in UZR or DRS (depending on the source), and both of these numbers trend towards being cumulative. Long story short, limited playing time can negatively impact a players dWAR, which does make sense. No one adds defensive help from the bench.

 

For the Sox, this does mean part time players like Arroyo and Valdez would and should struggle to have positive defensive WAR contributions just due to playing time and regardless of fielding ability…

 

They are absolutely cumulative.

[notin]

They are absolutely cumulative.

 

Yes but they can go down, which of why o say they tend towards being cumulative…

[dannycater]

bad team, bad f'ing team...fire everyone

[Randy Red Sox]

Well the Sox just lost their 2nd straight to the mighty Colorado Rockies. Just PATHETIC.