A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Another head scratcher. Despite Iggy's decline on D at SS, he's still light years better than Kike on D.

 

Elvis Andrus was out there even longer and settled for a paltry $3mill…

[Larry Cook]

If we are sellers at the trade deadline, we have turner, Paxton, Duvall and maybe hernandez to offer!

Offer the course of the next 50 days, we will be lucky if we are still a .500 team!

I think we can get enough assets back to justify trading all four!

But a dependable left handed reliever under multi year team control is a must!

[moonslav59]

2019 Roster

 

Keep in mind that we were trying to repeat with a starting rotation of Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Sale and E Rod. Pretty good rotation on paper.

 

If we had the Mets owner, we would have built on this whatever the cost.

 

$31.900M David Price (2019-2022)

$22.000M JD Martinez (2018-2022)

$20.625M Rick Porcello (2019)

$20.000M Mookie Betts (Arb 2, set to become FA in 2021)

$17.000M Nathan Eovaldi (2019-2022)

$18.455M Pablo Sandoval (2019 only, DFA's previously)

$13.750M Dustin Pedroia (2019-2021 DEAD $$$)

$15.000M Chris Sale (extension signed in April, $25.6M starting in 2020)

$12.000M Xander (final year)

$08.550M JBJ (arb 3 of 4)

$04.300M E Rod (arb 2 of 4)

$04.157M Vaz (2019-2021)

 

$11.711M Rusney Castillo ($14.271 in 2020 remaining)....OFF THE BOOKS, NOT ON THE 40MAN ROSTER

 

Obviously with short season in 2020, money part got sketchy. What could we have done differently?

 

Had we given say $350M to Betts over 10 years, what to do with Xander and others?

 

Moon, why don't you take a crack at it......obviously we all have the hindsight of what did transpire.

 

My guess is based on some overpays, JH was in no mood to give out a $400M contract that most of us would have done.

 

Xander would sign a 6 year, $120M contract in 2020. Devers not even on the radar.

 

Well- said, and this does not reflect the fact that Kimbrell and Kelly were not re-signed after 2018, and nobody was added at the deadline. The budget crunching actually started during DD's last season, and maybe that was a major reason for tension between him and top brass that led to his departure.

 

I want to add one thing: GMs often add player (or let them go) based on past numbers and trends. Bloom added guys like Kluber, Jansen, Martin, Turner and Duvall based on what they did last year or in the last 2-3 years. You hope they continue doing what they just did, but they don't always follow what was hoped for.

 

It seems to be the fad to look at how well guys like Nate, JD, Wacha and even Strahm are doing now, and pining away with what ifs. I can just picture this board's reaction, if Bloom did nothing more than just b ring back last year's team- you know, the one he "sucked at constructing," right?

 

BTW, it's a pipedream to think we could have signed all our own players and stayed under the tax line- let alone added a Yoshida or Jansen, Martin, Duvall combo.

 

All the talk of 4 years and us being no better is missing some major context.

 

1. The farm looks way better, and we've already seen more farm input than the time period from after the Devers call up to when DD departed in 2019.

2. The roster depth is light years better than what we had at the end of 2019, and that's before the mandated Betts/Price trade.

3. The big named players that led us to 3 division titles and that magical 2018 season were not the same players from 2019-2022 or 2020-2022. We are accused of living in the past with Kike, Duvall, and maybe implied with Kluber, Jansen, Martin and Turner, but how it this different from those who see the stars of 2018 as being the same guys from 2020-2022?

 

The fact is, Bloom inherited some great talent- a solid but rather small foundation of extremely successful talent, but let's look at what they produced after DD left, and then think, how is it Bloom's fault so many fell way short of the production levels they once had, and then to top it off, he was supposed to predict somehow, that some would return to greatness in 2023. It's really quite comical, to me.

 

Sale: 35-23 3.08 from 2017-2019/ 29-12 2.56 from '17-'18 extended by DD.

Only 22 GS'd from 2020-2023 (half, this year!) That's 4 seasons at 3.94 ERA.

 

Bogaerts: .914 OPS '18-'19 (56 HR and 220 RBI in 291 gms)

.851 OPS '20-'22 (49 HRs and 180 RBI in 350 gms)

 

JD: .985 OPS from 2018-2019 (79 HRs and 235 RBI in 296 gms/2 yrs)

.805 OPS (51 HRs and 188 RBI in 341 gms/3 yrs)

 

JBJ: .765 OPS from '15-'19 (.727 '17-'19)

No re-signed after 2020 (.814 OPS in 217 PAs in 2020)

 

Devers: Has a career best .916 OPS in 2019 and has been at .859 since. (Yes, Bloom is responsible for extending him and paying his arbs.)

 

 

Then, the guys not brought back after 2018, 2019 or forced to be traded away after 2019:

 

Betts: .991 OPS 2018-2019 (.893 career OPS w BOS ending in 2019)

Price: 39-19 3.74 from 2016-2018 (46-24 3.84 career w BOS ended '19)

Porcello: 50-28 3.99 '16-'18 (73-55 4.43 career w BOS ending in 2019)

Pearce: .747 OPS '18-'19, including awesome '18 playoffs.

Kimbrel: 2.44 ERA/0.096 WHIP & 108 Saves in 3 yrs ending in 2018.

Joe Kelly: 3.64 ERA '17-'18 and big '18 playoffs. Ended time in BOS after 2018.

 

These are facts. Somehow, it is Bloom's fault all these guys declined, were forced to be traded or were let go from the end of 2018 to the start of 2020 (The Bloom era.) Add to this, massive budget cuts and an apparent strategy to not trade prospects to improve the MLB club, and what should have been expected?

 

Seriously, in this light, how are some fans thinking this is Bloom's fault?

 

This is clearly the major reason for the decline. Somehow, Bloom was supposed to replace this production on $3M to $10M/1 contracts. It is comical to think anyone could have done much better.

 

Sure, he has made some blunders- some major (like the JBJ trade, going over the tax line in 2022 & spending nearly all of last winter's budget on everything but the rotation,) but it is hard for me to think a $10M/1 contract can ever be viewed as a major blunder.

 

He has made as many good moves as bad, if not more. He has built up a farm that had given us just Tanner Houck since the 2017 call-up of Devers. He has built up the roster depth that has kept us in the playoff race and near .500, this year.

 

That being said, I expected better than .500 by year 4, and this is essentially Bloom's team, now- sans Sale. Last winter was his "legacy winter," as I called it, and I'm not backing down from that. He deserves to be criticized for counting on Sale & Paxton to anchor the rotation. He got the Kluber signing terribly wrong. He refuses to trade future capital for an ace. (This may be a JH mandate.) This remains his make or break season, IMO, but he may be given another year, no matter what happens.

 

The season is not over, despite the loss of Sale (again.) It's not looking good. I've got nothing to point to that proves we should be in the playoff race until late September, but the team does deserve a chance to play the season out.

 

We have Story and Schreiber returning, soon and maybe Mondesi and Sale, later. Our rotation seems to be improving. The bats and pen need to pick it up, a little more, and we need to win most of these close games. It's a lot to ask, I know. I can understand why so many fans are pissed or angry. I'm not happy with our results, so far, either, but let's put some perspective into what the real team Bloom inherited. It was not the same player production of 2018 and/or 2019 Bloom got from DD. In several cases, it wasn't even close. Romanticizing about the talent Bloom inherited seems to be what raised many fan's expectations to an unreasonable level. JH's decision to massively slash the budget going into 2020, and not really getting back to the 2019 level until this year are major factors to consider when grading out Bloom & Co.

 

[moonslav59]

Your math is off a little...well, actually a lot.

 

Bogey's AAV is 25.455 mill.

 

Yoshida and Turner combined are more than that.

 

I did not say I was looking at AAV.

[notin]

You have to stop using this lame argument. We've all said many times, we're upset because they are being replace by junk not necessarily because the ones they let go are doing well. If Kluber was having a great year do you think we'd be all saying oh that's too bad we didn't keep Nate? f*** no, we'd be all stoked and couldn't care less how the other ones are doing.

 

 

But these are players who, when in Boston, made it difficult to make the necessary long term commitments each required. Eovaldi came in with a significant injury history, spent two of his 4 years missing significant time with injuries (and one of the two years he didn’t was 60 games long), and moved on to sign a deal that, with options and incentives can earn him $63mill over 3 years. I don’t care so much about the money as I think “what did this guy do in the past 4 years that makes him worth 3 more?” Especially since he’s now 4 years older. (Bloom apparently did offer him a multiyear deal in November. The terms have never been disclosed.)

 

Wacha’s contract can be about the same. The $6.5mill AAV is a misrepresentation; it’s only that if he is awful this year. If he is good, SD has a 2 year $32mill team option. Not sure if they exercise it, but Wacha, like Eovaldi, isn’t known for lasting 3 years.

 

To me, keeping these two notoriously fragile arms in a rotation that already has Chris Sale strikes me as a very risky idea.

 

Kluber was a stopgap. That’s it. He didn’t work out and he won’t be back (barring an extremely unlikely turnaround). If they DFAd him tomorrow, even Mrs. Kluber would understand.

 

No one knows if the Sox will get involved in the pitching free agent market or make a deal for another starter, like trade one of their CFs. But at least they have those options they might not have if Wacha and Eovaldi were tying up anywhere from $60-100mill and two roster spots for the next free seasons…

 

And next off-season will have better

[moonslav59]

Don’t take me off ignore, but even when I’m there you still comment on my post. That is not a lie about Mookie, and that was on a game thread. As Charles Barkley would say GUARANTEED!

 

You are confusing me with another poster.

 

Yes, I said "Mookie who?" as a way to compliment how well Wong and Dugo were, doing at the time, and not to denigrate Mookie, but surely, it can be taken that way.

 

I never commented on his lead off skills. That as someone else. That statement is a blatant lie that you double down on without checking the facts, as usual. Back to ignore.

 

Betts was and still is an excellent lead off hitter. There is zero chance I said anything otherwise.

[moonslav59]

Elvis Andrus was out there even longer and settled for a paltry $3mill…

 

I was on the front seat of the sign Andrus wagon. He is having a tough season, so far, but I did feel like we needed better than Chang and Mondesi.

[Bellhorn04]

I did not say I was looking at AAV.

 

Then your statement was nonsensical, assuming that we wouldn't sign all these guys because we signed Bogey to a long term contract.

[moonslav59]

I’d call it incomplete. And I think his goals and our expectations don’t align as closely as we would like.

 

For example, many of us (myself included) have wondered why there’s been almost no focus on MiLB pitching. Not in trades. Not in the draft. It’s like he’s grabbed the occasional token arm but not much else. Whitlock, Winckowski, and ?

 

Well now in 2023, we’ve seen the minor league put three starters in the rotation with varying degrees of success. But it’s getting more apparent how completely devoid of hitting talent this minor league system was. If you look at the 4 drafts run by the Dombrowski regime - and at 4-7 years ago the book on them is almost closed - to net produced almost nothing in the way of MLB-caliber position players. Granted, the jury is still out on some 2019 draft picks. But the first 3 drafts to date have only produced 4 hitters with as much as one professional plate appearance. Casas is still young and shows promise. Duran flirts with looking like an MLB player. Dalbec is the only other one to ever suit up for Boston (and God willing never will again). And the only other one is the departed Sergio Espinal, the lone All Star of these drafts (to date).

 

To me that does lend some credence as to why position players dominate early in his drafts and dominate his trades.

 

Granted, it does very little for the current team…

 

When you have a GM who drafts almost all HS players early in the draft, certainly he can not be definitively graded after 3.4 years. He's had 3 drafts, one of which was shortened. All prospects missed a season during those 3.4 years.

 

His improvement of the farm is almost all speculative, and pundits have gotten farm rankings wrong, before, but it appears he has done what he was told to do.

 

Don't trade any top farm players. (Aldo Ramirez and Jason Groome have been the highest ranked prospects traded, so far.)

Acquire farm depth via trades (almost all trades involved adding a prospect or more.)

Build 40 man roster depth with younger and younger players than what we started with at the end of 2019.

 

[dgalehouse]

Andrus is a ham and egger. Bogaerts is a terrific player.

[moonslav59]

AAV is only one way to value a contract. The folks paying the bills might also care about the overall commitment. And if they do, Yoshida, Turner and Duvall will receive much less money than Bogaerts has coming to him.

 

Even less than the talked about $160M/6 deal we supposedly could have gotten Bogey for.

 

$160M gets us Yoshida, Jansen, Turner and Martin.

[Bellhorn04]

Andrus is a ham and egger. Bogaerts is a terrific player.

 

We were just talking about getting a guy who could field the position, rather than trying to plug Kike in there.

[Bellhorn04]

Even less than the talked about $160M/6 deal we supposedly could have gotten Bogey for.

 

$160M gets us Yoshida, Jansen, Turner and Martin.

 

So now we're just lumping together guys with contracts of much different lengths?

[moonslav59]

Then your statement was nonsensical, assuming that we wouldn't sign all these guys because we signed Bogey to a long term contract.

 

You think we would have signed all those players had we gotten Bogey at even $180M/7?

 

Maybe Duvall.

 

Maybe Yoshida, but then no Duvall, Turner, and probably Jansen.

 

Even if you go by AAV, how do we stay under by bringing back Bogey, Nate, JD and Wacha while adding more pieces.

 

Show me, and I'll gladly admit I was wrong. (I'm not even talking Bogey's current deal, either, but had we needed to pay that, we'd be way over the line, now.)

[moonslav59]

So now we're just lumping together guys with contracts of much different lengths?

 

Certainly the length of contracts matters, or else we wouldn't be signing 1-2 years deals for 4 years.

 

Yes, AAV counts, too, and I'm going on the supposition that 2023 is a reset season set ins tone.

 

Show me how we sign so many more players, had we brought back just Bogey, JD, Nate and Wacha.

 

Who do we not sign, because surely we could not have signed everyone.

[notin]

Keep having fun with that argument, but as others have pointed out, it's not just losing guys like the ones Danny mentioned, it's the fact that there haven't been any replacements.

 

Last year the cry was we needed Schwarber back. We dealt with Arroyo in the OF and Pham and the Dalbec/Franchy debacle. Schwarber would have fit right in!!

 

Of course now in Schwarber’s two best defensive positions (relatively speaking), the Sox have Yoshida and Casas. And suddenly, we don’t need Schwarber any more.

 

All of this “but look who we replaced them with” ******** ignores that not a single starting pitcher that has signed with the Sox in the last few years has received a multiyear offer (except reportedly Eovaldi). These are all stopgaps. And many have stepped aside to let Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Bello step into the rotation and try to claim a spot.

 

Just because a player doesn’t get replaced RIGHT AWAY doesn’t mean it’s never going to happen…

[Bellhorn04]

You think we would have signed all those players had we gotten Bogey at even $180M/7?

 

Maybe Duvall.

 

Maybe Yoshida, but then no Duvall, Turner, and probably Jansen.

 

Even if you go by AAV, how do we stay under by bringing back Bogey, Nate, JD and Wacha while adding more pieces.

 

This all started with me pointing out that Bogaerts is still doing well in terms of fWAR, in spite of the slump he was in for a while.

 

As to your question about bringing all those guys back plus more, that would have been tough unless Henry was in a Steve Cohen-ish mood.

 

It just hurts to see all these guys doing well for other teams while Bloom has largely had no success replacing them.

[Bellhorn04]

Last year the cry was we needed Schwarber back. We dealt with Arroyo in the OF and Pham and the Dalbec/Franchy debacle. Schwarber would have fit right in!!

 

Of course now in Schwarber’s two best defensive positions (relatively speaking), the Sox have Yoshida and Casas. And suddenly, we don’t need Schwarber any more.

 

All of this “but look who we replaced them with” ******** ignores that not a single starting pitcher that has signed with the Sox in the last few years has received a multiyear offer (except reportedly Eovaldi). These are all stopgaps. And many have stepped aside to let Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Bello step into the rotation and try to claim a spot.

 

Just because a player doesn’t get replaced RIGHT AWAY doesn’t mean it’s never going to happen…

 

So do we assume that Bloom has indeed been guaranteed at least 5 years?

[dgalehouse]

Some folks want to dismiss the 2020 season as if it never happened. The trouble is , you can't do that. As much as we wish it didn't happen , the reality is it did. The season was abbreviated for obvious reasons , but it was fair for everyone and the best team won. It probably was just as well that it wasn't longer because it was rough watching the Sox pretty much mail it in many nights.

[Bellhorn04]

Some folks want to dismiss the 2020 season as if it never happened. The trouble is , you can't do that. As much as we wish it didn't happen , the reality is it did. The season was abbreviated for obvious reasons , but it was fair for everyone and the best team won. It probably was just as well that it wasn't longer because it was rough watching the Sox pretty much mail it in many nights.

 

Once they traded Betts, and we were also without Sale and E-Rod for the season, it only made sense to tank the 2020 season, as much as I dislike tanking.

[notin]

So do we assume that Bloom has indeed been guaranteed at least 5 years?

 

I am never going to even pretend I know what his agreement with Henry is. And my opinion on that subject is not relevant…

[vegasbob]

So do we assume that Bloom has indeed been guaranteed at least 5 years?

 

Bloom's salary/contract probably is guaranteed for 5 years but that does not mean he will get the full time to implement whatever direction he is following. I do think that Chaim and Cora both will be held to account if the team , while regaining some of its intended position starters ( Duvall/Story) , falters further and finishes sub.500 or last in AL East. The PR-social media din will be loud and even the cool , calm JH's of the business world do notice. They want to look like they are responsive to the wild hordes of fan-atics.

[Old Red]

Last year the cry was we needed Schwarber back. We dealt with Arroyo in the OF and Pham and the Dalbec/Franchy debacle. Schwarber would have fit right in!!

 

Of course now in Schwarber’s two best defensive positions (relatively speaking), the Sox have Yoshida and Casas. And suddenly, we don’t need Schwarber any more.

 

All of this “but look who we replaced them with” ******** ignores that not a single starting pitcher that has signed with the Sox in the last few years has received a multiyear offer (except reportedly Eovaldi). These are all stopgaps. And many have stepped aside to let Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Bello step into the rotation and try to claim a spot.

 

Just because a player doesn’t get replaced RIGHT AWAY doesn’t mean it’s never going to happen…

Just because a player does get replaced RIGHT AWAY doesn’t mean it’s never going to happen? Wow! What analysis, or should I say the lack of. Let’s just throw another season down the drain,and charge more money to watch it. Kike to Nurse Rachett (Bloom). But YOU PROMISED we’d get better this year. What a crock of BS.

[notin]

Once they traded Betts, and we were also without Sale and E-Rod for the season, it only made sense to tank the 2020 season, as much as I dislike tanking.

 

Once Sale went down, it made trading the unextended Betts the right move. ERod going down just hammered that home…

[notin]

Just because a player does get replaced RIGHT AWAY doesn’t mean it’s never going to happen? Wow! What analysis, or should I say the lack of. Let’s just throw another season down the drain,and charge more money to watch it. Kike to Nurse Rachett (Bloom). But YOU PROMISED we’d get better this year. What a crock of BS.

 

What do you think of this Sox rotation? With the 4 youngsters in it?

 

I don’t think Houck and Crawford will stick, but I can see giving both a chance. Houck scored a few points for himself last night..

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom's salary/contract probably is guaranteed for 5 years but that does not mean he will get the full time to implement whatever direction he is following. I do think that Chaim and Cora both will be held to account if the team , while regaining some of its intended position starters ( Duvall/Story) , falters further and finishes sub.500 or last in AL East. The PR-social media din will be loud and even the cool , calm JH's of the business world do notice. They want to look like they are responsive to the wild hordes of fan-atics.

 

It's hard to know what Henry is thinking any more. Maybe he's decided to be a stubborn old rich prick who has made it through being booed at one Winter Weekend and figures he can do it again. If he was really trying to appease the fans I think he would have spent more this off-season and not fallen back into the middle of the payroll pack.

[Bellhorn04]

Once Sale went down, it made trading the unextended Betts the right move. ERod going down just hammered that home…

 

Whether trading Betts could ever be defined as the right move will always be up for debate, I think.

[vegasbob]

What do you think of this Sox rotation? With the 4 youngsters in it?

 

I don’t think Houck and Crawford will stick, but I can see giving both a chance. Houck scored a few points for himself last night..

 

Houck, Crawford and Whitlock combined with Bello, and a couple professional mid career pitchers like a healthy Paxton type could become a winning rotation but it could take 1 or 2 more seasons to know that definitively. Kluber is beyond dead to the Sox, and Sale will remain on the roster until the final paycheck cashes but is useless in terms of future production predictions. One question is, who is the coach or mentor who can get the 4 younger guys over the hump from raw talent to a skilled pitcher, not just a thrower ?

[Old Red]

Whether trading Betts could ever be defined as the right move will always be up for debate, I think.

 

As one local sports writer told me once if the Red Sox trade Betts it will be the worst move since Babe Ruth. The Betts trade will be discussed for years to come, and certainly debated if it was the right move, or not.

[Old Red]

What do you think of this Sox rotation? With the 4 youngsters in it?

 

I don’t think Houck and Crawford will stick, but I can see giving both a chance. Houck scored a few points for himself last night..

 

I don’t think Houck, or the Kut Man will stick either, but I have come around on Whitlock staying in the rotation. With that change up he’s a better pitcher.