A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

This all started with me pointing out that Bogaerts is still doing well in terms of fWAR, in spite of the slump he was in for a while.

 

As to your question about bringing all those guys back plus more, that would have been tough unless Henry was in a Steve Cohen-ish mood.

 

It just hurts to see all these guys doing well for other teams while Bloom has largely had no success replacing them.

 

No doubt, but you are looking at the guys he replaced 2023 numbers not 2022 numbers.

 

True, Kluber has not replaced even the 2019 Nate or the 2022 Wacha or Hill. That was a terrible signing, in hindsight. The thing is, so would be signing deGrom and several other big FA pitcher signings. That does not make the Kluber mistake any better, but many were hoping we signed other failing SP'ers, last winter.

 

Rate these changes, as of June 11th 2023:

 

McGuire/Wong vs the 2022 Vaz/Plawecki (They are way better than the 2023 Vaz/Plaw combo)

Casas/Turner vs the 2022 horror show at 1B or what any of those guys are doing in 2023.

Our 2023 OF vs the 2022 OF (adding Yoshida and Duvall over JBJ, Pham and Franchy)

Our 2023 Pen vs the 2022 Pen. (That's 3 players: Jansen, Martin, Joely over Starhm, Diekman, Davis, Sawamura and more)

 

Yes, the .790 JD was better than the .749 Turner, but I would not bet against the 2023 final DH OPS being higher than 2022's. (Right now, it's .763 2022 to .760 2023.)

Nobody expected JD to hit like this in 2023. I guess one can blame Bloom for not projecting the rebound, if one wants to do so.

 

The massive drop off from 2022 SS to 2023 SS is a major factor to our current record, for sure. Perhaps, it looks like enough to offset all the good replacements listed above.

 

[Larry Cook]

No doubt, but you are looking at the guys he replaced 2023 numbers not 2022 numbers.

 

True, Kluber has not replaced even the 2019 Nate or the 2022 Wacha or Hill. That was a terrible signing, in hindsight. The thing is, so would be signing deGrom and several other big FA pitcher signings. That does not make the Kluber mistake any better, but many were hoping we signed other failing SP'ers, last winter.

 

Rate these changes, as of June 11th 2023:

 

McGuire/Wong vs the 2022 Vaz/Plawecki (They are way better than the 2023 Vaz/Plaw combo)

Casas/Turner vs the 2022 horror show at 1B or what any of those guys are doing in 2023.

Our 2023 OF vs the 2022 OF (adding Yoshida and Duvall over JBJ, Pham and Franchy)

Our 2023 Pen vs the 2022 Pen. (That's 3 players: Jansen, Martin, Joely over Starhm, Diekman, Davis, Sawamura and more)

 

Yes, the .790 JD was better than the .749 Turner, but I would not bet against the 2023 final DH OPS being higher than 2022's. (Right now, it's .763 2022 to .760 2023.)

Nobody expected JD to hit like this in 2023. I guess one can blame Bloom for not projecting the rebound, if one wants to do so.

 

The massive drop off from 2022 SS to 2023 SS is a major factor to our current record, for sure. Perhaps, it looks like enough to offset all the good replacements listed above.

 

 

2nd and 3rd base have been a huge drop off?

[moonslav59]

2nd and 3rd base have been a huge drop off?

 

3B has, but with the same guy there, but I doubt it stays that way for long.

 

2B has, too. Maybe the return of Story will help. Bloom did not change players at 2B and 3B.

 

OPS by position '22>'23

"22 Position "23

.694 C .756 +.062

.683 1B .754 +.071

.724 2B .640 -.084 (no major player change- just injuries)

.856 3B .789 -.067 (no player change)

.815 SS .640 -175

.696 LF .824 +.128

.671 CF .837 +.176

.661 RF .809 +.148

.763 DH .760 -003

 

Pitching: ERA/OPSA

4.49/ .763 SP 5.12/.787

4.59/.722 RP 4.03/.707

39/29 Sv/BS 17/7

 

Bloom has not swung and missed at every position, and we still have over 60% of the season reaming.

 

 

[moonslav59]

May 24 to yesterday: (25+ PAs)

 

OPS

.918 Wong (.389 BAbip/36% K rate)

.855 Yoshida (.340 BAbip)

.850 Ref (.375 BAbip)

.833 Casas (on the rise)

.781 McGuire (rebounding on CERA, too)

.778 Dugo (.340 BAbip)

.759 Devers (.262 BAbip- bad luck?)

.695 Turner (2 HRs and 8 RBI both tied for second on team)

.690 Kike (3 Hrs and 11 RBI both lead the club.)

.510 Duran (brought it up, today.)

.422 EValdez (back in AAA)

 

[moonslav59]

Last 28 Days, not counting today's gem by Bello:

 

OPS AGainst

.481 Garza

.500 Martin

.581 Jansen

.654 Wink

.656 Bello

.670 Craw

.680 Whit

.701 Sale

.717 Pivetta

.717 Bernardino

.719 Houck

.728 Paxton

 

Our younger pitchers with 3 or more years of team control seem to be stepping up.

 

ERAs by our biggest innings pitchers in the last 28 days, not counting tonight's game:

 

5.19 Houck 26 IP

2.86 Bello 22 (2.86 after tonight, as well)

3.86 Paxton 21

4.24 Pivetta 17 (went down, tonight)

3.38 Whitlock 16

2.30 Sale 16 (on 60 Day IL)

9.22 Kluber 14

1.46 Wink 12

4.09 Craw 11

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Good turns from the starters this series. At least we’ll get a day off from Stork tomorrow.

[moonslav59]

A lot can happen in just a few short weeks, and we have over 90 games to go.

 

Almost anything can happen, but I have to think the Rays are untouchable as division winners.

 

It looks close to impossible to think we can pass the Astros, despite the fact that are missing 3 from their rotation or the Rangers, who are 5 ahead of HOU.

 

MIN or CLE should win the ALC, even if they have a worse record than all 5 ALE teams.

 

That leaves BAL or NYY as the most likely targets to pass and make the playoffs. We also have TOR and LAA between us and them and SEA right on our heels.

 

Here is the current WC standings:

 

+4.5 BAL

+0.5 NYY

+0.0 HOU

 

-0.5 TOR

-1.5 LAA

-4.0 BOS

-5.0 SEA

-5.5 CLE

 

I'm not going to predict good times are here, but the upcoming schedule gives us an opportunity to gain some ground, while also having some games vs teams we need to pass. Here are the teams we play next:

 

3 COL

day off

3 NYY

4 @ MIN

3 @ CWS

day off

3 MIA

3 @ TOR

day off

3 TEX

3 OAK

ALL STAR BREAK (4 days off)

 

The run up to the AUG 1st trade deadline:

3 @ CWS

3 @ OAK

day off

3 NYM

2 ATL

day off

3 @ SFG

3 @ SEA (trade deadline in middle of this series)

3 TOR

4 KCR

3 DET

3 @WSH

 

I know hopes are low, right now, but I'm not giving up, just yet.

[moonslav59]

Last starts and some recent numbers from our SP'ers:

 

Bello- 7 IP 2 ER 5 H+BB (3.08 ERA/.710 OPSA in last 9 starts)

 

Whitlock- 6.1 IP 1 ER 8 H+BB (4.71 ERA/.702 OPSA in last 4 starts)

 

Houck- 6 IP 2 ER 4 H+BB (3.38 ERA/.680 OPSA in last 3 starts)

 

Paxton- 7 IP 2 ER 8 H+BB (2.25/.591 OPSA in last 2 starts & 3.81 ERA in 5 GS)

 

Crawford- 3 IP 2 ER 5 H+BB (4.50 ERA/.667 OPSA in last 2 starts- 6 IP total)

 

Let's hope these trends continues.

 

[moonslav59]

It's pretty scary to see that only one Sox player is above a .777 OPS in the last 30 days:

 

1.042 Ref

 

.777 Yoshida (.842 last 15 days)

.757 Turner (.797 last 15)

.731 Wong

.728 Devers

.709 Tapia

.710 Casas

.700 Kike

.687 Dugo

.647 Reyes

.626 McGuire (.848 last 15 days)

.534 Duran

 

RBI Leaders:

17 Devers

14 Kike

13 Turner

9 Yoshida

8 Duran

6 Ref, Dugo & Reyes

 

XBHs

10 Devers & Yoshida

9 Turner

8 Dugo, Wong

7 Casas

6 Kike, Duran

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Just one of the inexplicable mysteries of the game, how you can go from scoring a lot and giving up a lot to the other extreme. Is it the teams you're playing against? Is it the weather? Who the hell knows?

[Hugh2]

Just one of the inexplicable mysteries of the game, how you can go from scoring a lot and giving up a lot to the other extreme. Is it the teams you're playing against? Is it the weather? Who the hell knows?

 

It certainly is frustrating, it makes one wonder what this team could do if they could fire on all cylinders at once. Players struggle and go into slumps, but it's been a little surreal to see practically the entire offense disappear after looking so strong for the first 6 weeks

[Old Red]

Just one of the inexplicable mysteries of the game, how you can go from scoring a lot and giving up a lot to the other extreme. Is it the teams you're playing against? Is it the weather? Who the hell knows?

 

The Sox are going tonight against the great Connor Seabold , so if that’s not a formula for getting the bats going again I don’t know what is.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It certainly is frustrating, it makes one wonder what this team could do if they could fire on all cylinders at once. Players struggle and go into slumps, but it's been a little surreal to see practically the entire offense disappear after looking so strong for the first 6 weeks

 

Maybe the inconsistencies and frustrations are just typical of a .500 team. Most of the roster is full of guys right now in various stages of their careers when most of the time they are not stars, but don't always suck.

[mvp 78]

Maybe the inconsistencies and frustrations are just typical of a .500 team. Most of the roster is full of guys right now in various stages of their careers when most of the time they are not stars, but don't always suck.

 

That's the roster Bloom built. He bet on the upside, but is getting the downside too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's the roster Bloom built. He bet on the upside, but is getting the downside too.

 

Welcome to the inbetweenside, Sox fans.

 

Hey, Sam, does that mean for every other game at Fenway, you'll charge the lowest prices in MLB for tickets, parking and concessions?

[moonslav59]

The thing is, just about 25-27 teams in MLB share the same amount of roster problems as us, or more.

 

Some teams have had more injuries than us, notably HOU and NYY, and yet they are still ahead of us, but can they sustain this over the next 90+ games?

 

Our roster has several good things others don't have, but of course most teams have a better rotation, and that is huge.

 

I've been encouraged by the improvement of our rotation over the last 5 weeks and even more in the recent small sample sizes.

 

Some selected sample sizes:

 

5.14 Opening Day to April 29th.

5.09 Opening Day to May 15th.

 

4.22 April 30 to today.

3.96 May 26th to today

3.75 May 16 to today, including the 10 run game vs CLE on June 8th. (3.52, if you take away that one game.)

2.00 last 3 games

 

Team Pitching Rankings:

Since April 30th

T8th xFIP- (96)

11th in fWAR

13th in ERA- (95)

15th in ERA (85)

 

Since May 1th

T7th xFIP-

6th in fWAR

8th in ERA-

10th in ERA

 

It seems we have reached the top tier, if divided by 3.

 

Now, the hitting has to improve and maybe the D can improve, when Story and or Mondesi return, or we stop playing Kike at SS.

[Dipre]

I like your analysis moon, but the truth is, this level of inconsistency is the mark of a mediocre-bad team.

[Bellhorn04]

The only real hope is that the young starters keep it going like they did this weekend.

[moonslav59]

I like your analysis moon, but the truth is, this level of inconsistency is the mark of a mediocre-bad team.

 

No doubt. Our pitching improved as our O declined.

 

When our SP'ing started to improve, our pen had a meltdown stretch.

 

Yes, that is the mark of mediocrity.

 

My post was meant to offer hope, as our rotation has been the downfall of this team, so far and overall.

 

I never thought it was going to be as bad as it looked at the end of April. Maybe The O was overperforming expectations, but I do think our O is top 10.

 

The hope is, our pitching stays top 10, as it has been in the last 3-5 weeks and our O scores runs in the top 10 the rest of the way.

 

The D might be our downfall, but even that should improve, when injured middle IF'ers return, and maybe Casas and our young catchers improve with time. Yoshida at DH more often can help the OF D improve, but Duvall in CF, instead of Kike or Duran looks like a down tick. Duvall in LF with Kike/Duran in CF makes our OF a plus on D, overall. Story at SS (or 2B) and Chang/Mondesi at SS or Kike/Arroyo at 2B makes the middle If way better than it has been.

 

I realize, I may be overly optimistic, but it seems many here have lost all hope, or are thinking it will take nothing short of a miracle to make the playoffs or even finish 4th in the division. These other temas have weaknesses, too. Big one and multiple ones.

[Old Red]

Injury news update!

 

The ghostly Mondesi is not progressing. What a shocker.

 

Schreiber is throwing out to 75 feet.

[moonslav59]

The only real hope is that the young starters keep it going like they did this weekend.

 

More hope there than a return of Chris Freakin' Sale.

[dgalehouse]

Saw something some wag posted online. Things have changed; now, Yankee fans are chanting " Yankees Suck " and Red Sox fans are chanting " Red Sox suck " .

[moonslav59]

Saw something some wag posted online. Things have changed; now, Yankee fans are chanting " Yankees Suck " and Red Sox fans are chanting " Red Sox suck " .

 

Every team but maybe 3-4 suck.

[Nick]

Really could use a sweep versus Colorado at home.

 

It's about pitching. Our bats should wake up at home. If we can' hit next 3 games, then I give up.

 

Rockies are a bad team.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Really could use a sweep versus Colorado at home.

 

It's about pitching. Our bats should wake up at home. If we can' hit next 3 games, then I give up.

 

Rockies are a bad team.

 

Wow, it's COL or bust for you!

[Old Red]

Wow, it's COL or bust for you!

 

If they can’t hit Seabold it’s not a good sign.

[moonslav59]

Our pitching has improved. Last 28 days OPS Against, listed in order of most PAs: (30+ PAs)

.593 Bello

.719 Houck

.728 Paxton

.696 Pivetta

.680 Whitlock

.701 Sale (IL)

.654 Wink

1.164 Kluber (mop up duty, now)

.670 Crawford

.481 Garza

.532 Jansen

.453 Martin

.658 Bernardino

 

All I can say is WOW! These numbers are very encouraging!

[Bellhorn04]

Every team but maybe 3-4 suck.

 

That would mean that baseball in general sucks.

[mvp 78]

Really could use a sweep versus Colorado at home.

 

It's about pitching. Our bats should wake up at home. If we can' hit next 3 games, then I give up.

 

Rockies are a bad team.

 

They are wheeling out Chase Anderson in Game 2. If they can't hit well now, they never will.

[mvp 78]

That would mean that baseball in general sucks.

 

Why even watch then?