A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

That would mean that baseball in general sucks.

 

Personally, I think the league is just more balanced, but that means fewer great teams and not really 26 sucky teams.

Edited June 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox Offense...

 

OPS

.769 April

.766 May

.687 June, so far

 

.753 v RHP (.741 when RH starts)/ .721 in '22

.758 v LHP (.790 when LH starts)/ .760 in '22

 

.831 Home/ .773 in '22

.675 Away/ .689 in '22

 

.843 CF/ .671 '22

.812 LF/ .694 '22

.805 RF/ .661 '22

(.820 OF/ .676 '22 WOW! A .144 increase!)

 

.785 3B/ .856 '22

.773 DH/ .763 '22

.749 C/ .694 '22

.742 1B/ .683 '22

.646 2B/ .724 '22

.632 SS/ .815 '22 (A .183 drop!_

 

.796 Batters 1-2/ .753 in '22

.769 Batters 3-6/ .769

.702 Batters 7-9/ .656

 

.793 RISP (Shows how the eye test can be very wrong.)/ .752 in '22

.823 RISP w 2 Outs/ .716 '22

.733 Men On Base/ .758 '22

.681 Late & Close/ .619 '22

.749 High Leverage/ .734 '22

 

 

[moonslav59]

Thinking Platoon?

 

vs RHPs

1.382 Duvall (just 35 PAs)

.874 Yoshida

.872 Verdugo

.825 Wong (reverse split)

.815 Tapia

.811 Duran

.778 Devers (reverse split)

.739 Valdez

.692 Casas

.675 Arroyo (reverse split)

.670 Turner

.666 Kike (barely reverse split)

 

.630 McGuire (reverse split)

.547 Refsnyder

.508 Reyes (33 PAs)

.382 Chang (33)

_______________

 

vs LHPs

1.400 Duvall (10 PAs)

1.122 McGuire (14) Reverse split

.987 Turner

.950 Refsnyder

.892 Reyes (19)

.833 Dalbec (8)

.827 Devers reverse split

.830 Chang (14)

.712 Casas

 

.647 Kike (barely a reverse split)

.644 Verdugo

.618 Duran

.604 Wong (reverse split)

.588 Arroyo (reverse split)

.296 Tapia (21)

.111 Valdez (9)

 

Looking at these numbers these guys should not start vs...

 

RHPs: Refsnyder, Reyes, Chang (Reyes & Chang are maybe our best defensive SSs, now.) McGuire and Wong both have reverse splits, but start games by SP'er not opposing pitcher.

Kike and Turner could be considered to platoon or be rested more vs RH SP'ers.

 

LHPs: Duran, Tapia, Valdez

Verdugo and Casas could be considered to platoon or rest more often vs LH SP'ers.

 

When Story returns, it might take some realu juggling by Cora to keep everyone playing enough to stay sharp and content.

 

C: McGuire & Wong continue as is.

1B: Turner playing a little more at 1B v LHPs.

DH: Yoshida playing a little more at DH vs L & R. (Turner sitting v some RHPs)

2B: Kike/Arroyo (maybe Valdez v RHPs, if he is on the 26.)

SS: Story FT

3B: Devers FT

LF: Duvall (LF more)/Yoshida (DH more)/Refsnyder (Has to play v LHPs-somewhere(

CF: Kike/Duran (platoon)/ Duvall (more in LF)

RF: Dugo (maybe sit vs more LHPs)/ Refsnyder

 

[Maxbialystock]

Thinking Platoon?

 

vs RHPs

1.382 Duvall (just 35 PAs)

.874 Yoshida

.872 Verdugo

.825 Wong (reverse split)

.815 Tapia

.811 Duran

.778 Devers (reverse split)

.739 Valdez

.692 Casas

.675 Arroyo (reverse split)

.670 Turner

.666 Kike (barely reverse split)

 

.630 McGuire (reverse split)

.547 Refsnyder

.508 Reyes (33 PAs)

.382 Chang (33)

_______________

 

vs LHPs

1.400 Duvall (10 PAs)

1.122 McGuire (14) Reverse split

.987 Turner

.950 Refsnyder

.892 Reyes (19)

.833 Dalbec (8)

.827 Devers reverse split

.830 Chang (14)

.712 Casas

 

.647 Kike (barely a reverse split)

.644 Verdugo

.618 Duran

.604 Wong (reverse split)

.588 Arroyo (reverse split)

.296 Tapia (21)

.111 Valdez (9)

 

Looking at these numbers these guys should not start vs...

 

RHPs: Refsnyder, Reyes, Chang (Reyes & Chang are maybe our best defensive SSs, now.) McGuire and Wong both have reverse splits, but start games by SP'er not opposing pitcher.

Kike and Turner could be considered to platoon or be rested more vs RH SP'ers.

 

LHPs: Duran, Tapia, Valdez

Verdugo and Casas could be considered to platoon or rest more often vs LH SP'ers.

 

When Story returns, it might take some realu juggling by Cora to keep everyone playing enough to stay sharp and content.

 

C: McGuire & Wong continue as is.

1B: Turner playing a little more at 1B v LHPs.

DH: Yoshida playing a little more at DH vs L & R. (Turner sitting v some RHPs)

2B: Kike/Arroyo (maybe Valdez v RHPs, if he is on the 26.)

SS: Story FT

3B: Devers FT

LF: Duvall (LF more)/Yoshida (DH more)/Refsnyder (Has to play v LHPs-somewhere(

CF: Kike/Duran (platoon)/ Duvall (more in LF)

RF: Dugo (maybe sit vs more LHPs)/ Refsnyder

 

 

Rational and thorough post.

[Maxbialystock]

I hasten to add that right now the lineup is a bigger problem than the pitching.

[notin]

I hasten to add that right now the lineup is a bigger problem than the pitching.

 

I posted a week or two back about how the starter ERA was dropping, as was the team OPS. It was met with “yeah but Kluber!! Wacha!!”

[dannycater]

Starting pitching has been team's strongpoint of late...it still doesn't mean I wouldn't rather have Wacha and Eavoldi

[moonslav59]

I hasten to add that right now the lineup is a bigger problem than the pitching.

 

In a big way, for several weeks, now.

 

I guess one could imagine both will do what is needed at the same time, and we can make a strong run at the playoffs, but as the Smiths would sing...

 

How Soon Is Now?

 

[moonslav59]

A Tale of Two Teams

 

Team batting:

.808 OPS on May 4th (195 Runs/33 gms)

.700 OPS May5-June12 (131 Runs/34 gms)

 

.792 on May 12th (222 Runs/39 gms)

.708 May 13-June 12th (110 Runs/29 gms)

 

Team Pitching

 

4.87 on May 4th

4.23 from May 5th-June 12th

4.12 since April 30th

3.60 since May 17th (24 games)

1.70 last 4 games (2-2 record)

 

[notin]

Starting pitching has been team's strongpoint of late...it still doesn't mean I wouldn't rather have Wacha and Eavoldi

 

Using DRS as a metric, Texas has the second best defense in MLB and San Diego is top ten as well. If you put Eovaldi and/or Wacha on the mound with the 29th ranked defense (that leads MLB in errors) behind them, do people still think these guys put up Pitcher of the Month caliber numbers?

 

The Sox rotation has been nothing short of miraculous of late, given that they’re supported by the stopgap middle infield clusterf*** trying to record outs with varying levels of success.

 

The defense and the offense are the incredibly obvious shortcomings right now…

[mvp 78]

Using DRS as a metric, Texas has the second best defense in MLB and San Diego is top ten as well. If you put Eovaldi and/or Wacha on the mound with the 29th ranked defense (that leads MLB in errors) behind them, do people still think these guys put up Pitcher of the Month caliber numbers?

 

The Sox rotation has been nothing short of miraculous of late, given that they’re supported by the stopgap middle infield clusterf*** trying to record outs with varying levels of success.

 

The defense and the offense are the incredibly obvious shortcomings right now…

 

Nate could probably with his k/bb rate. Doubtful for Wacha as he is a pitch to contact guy.

[Maxbialystock]

I posted a week or two back about how the starter ERA was dropping, as was the team OPS. It was met with “yeah but Kluber!! Wacha!!”

 

Your problem is you are smarter than the rest of us. Anyway, good call.

[Maxbialystock]

A Tale of Two Teams

 

Team batting:

.808 OPS on May 4th (195 Runs/33 gms)

.700 OPS May5-June12 (131 Runs/34 gms)

 

.792 on May 12th (222 Runs/39 gms)

.708 May 13-June 12th (110 Runs/29 gms)

 

Team Pitching

 

4.87 on May 4th

4.23 from May 5th-June 12th

4.12 since April 30th

3.60 since May 17th (24 games)

1.70 last 4 games (2-2 record)

 

 

Great stuff! Thanks.

[Bellhorn04]

I posted a week or two back about how the starter ERA was dropping, as was the team OPS. It was met with “yeah but Kluber!! Wacha!!”

 

Our suckiness is a moving target.

[mvp 78]

Our suckiness is a moving target.

 

The defense is an immovable suck.

[Dipre]

Our suckiness is a moving target.

 

.....the unmistakable sign of a bad team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In a big way, for several weeks, now.

 

I guess one could imagine both will do what is needed at the same time, and we can make a strong run at the playoffs, but as the Smiths would sing...

 

How Soon Is Now?

 

 

I just can't see making a strong run with a weak defense.

 

Recently, someone posted that shortstop wasn't really a focus (paraphrasing) of past Sox teams that won titles. I looked them up, and all had positive dWAR for Boston in '04, '07, '13 and '18: Cabrera 0.9, Lugo 0.8, Drew 0.2 and Bogaerts 0.1. While I'm not an expert on calculating WAR, I understand the acronym as a stat showing that all Red Sox championship shortstops this century were therefore better than a "replacement player."

 

So far this year, Kike Hernandez is a negative dWAR shortstop. I'm not sure how his handful of games at second base or in centerfield factor into his total dWAR, but he has 14 errors at short and zero at any other position.

 

Since WAR is now probably the most popular metric used to gauge player value, considering its very definition... how hard can it be to find a replacement player to replace a guy currently performing below the norms of a replacement player?

[moonslav59]

Great stuff! Thanks.

 

Scoring 2 less runs a game while allowing about a half run less.

[moonslav59]

The defense is an immovable suck.

 

Story might help, but not enough.

[moonslav59]

I just can't see making a strong run with a weak defense.

 

Recently, someone posted that shortstop wasn't really a focus (paraphrasing) of past Sox teams that won titles. I looked them up, and all had positive dWAR for Boston in '04, '07, '13 and '18: Cabrera 0.9, Lugo 0.8, Drew 0.2 and Bogaerts 0.1. While I'm not an expert on calculating WAR, I understand the acronym as a stat showing that all Red Sox championship shortstops this century were therefore better than a "replacement player."

 

So far this year, Kike Hernandez is a negative dWAR shortstop. I'm not sure how his handful of games at second base or in centerfield factor into his total dWAR, but he has 14 errors at short and zero at any other position.

 

Since WAR is now probably the most popular metric used to gauge player value, considering its very definition... how hard can it be to find a replacement player to replace a guy currently performing below the norms of a replacement player?

 

That would be Chang then Story, but we shoulda got Iggy, faults and all.

[Dipre]

An article in The Athletic I just read says the earlier Story will be ready to play defense at SS is August.

[Old Red]

That would be Chang then Story, but we shoulda got Iggy, faults and all.

 

All of Iggy’s faults don’t come close to all of Kike’s faults.

[moonslav59]

All of Iggy’s faults don’t come close to all of Kike’s faults.

 

Indeed!

[moonslav59]

An article in The Athletic I just read says the earlier Story will be ready to play defense at SS is August.

 

We better hope Chang stays off the IL!

[mvp 78]

An article in The Athletic I just read says the earlier Story will be ready to play defense at SS is August.

 

Saw video of him just throwing from 120' yesterday at Fenway.

[Dipre]

Saw video of him just throwing from 120' yesterday at Fenway.

 

That workout is where the interview is from.

[Maxbialystock]

I just can't see making a strong run with a weak defense.

 

Recently, someone posted that shortstop wasn't really a focus (paraphrasing) of past Sox teams that won titles. I looked them up, and all had positive dWAR for Boston in '04, '07, '13 and '18: Cabrera 0.9, Lugo 0.8, Drew 0.2 and Bogaerts 0.1. While I'm not an expert on calculating WAR, I understand the acronym as a stat showing that all Red Sox championship shortstops this century were therefore better than a "replacement player."

 

So far this year, Kike Hernandez is a negative dWAR shortstop. I'm not sure how his handful of games at second base or in centerfield factor into his total dWAR, but he has 14 errors at short and zero at any other position.

 

Since WAR is now probably the most popular metric used to gauge player value, considering its very definition... how hard can it be to find a replacement player to replace a guy currently performing below the norms of a replacement player?

 

Where did you get the idea this team is in any way comparable to the 2004,2007,2013, or 2018 team?

 

In addition to better pitching and hitting—and bigger payrolls relative to other teams those years—they did not have three SS’s on the IL.

[notin]

I just can't see making a strong run with a weak defense.

 

Recently, someone posted that shortstop wasn't really a focus (paraphrasing) of past Sox teams that won titles. I looked them up, and all had positive dWAR for Boston in '04, '07, '13 and '18: Cabrera 0.9, Lugo 0.8, Drew 0.2 and Bogaerts 0.1. While I'm not an expert on calculating WAR, I understand the acronym as a stat showing that all Red Sox championship shortstops this century were therefore better than a "replacement player."

 

So far this year, Kike Hernandez is a negative dWAR shortstop. I'm not sure how his handful of games at second base or in centerfield factor into his total dWAR, but he has 14 errors at short and zero at any other position.

 

Since WAR is now probably the most popular metric used to gauge player value, considering its very definition... how hard can it be to find a replacement player to replace a guy currently performing below the norms of a replacement player?

 

And we can call him Pablo Reyes, the replacementiest replacement player of all time…

[Dipre]

Where did you get the idea this team is in any way comparable to the 2004,2007,2013, or 2018 team?

In addition to better pitching and hitting—and bigger payrolls relative to other teams those years—they did not have three SS’s on the IL.

 

They both have a defined roster, a starting rotation, a starting lineup and a bullpen. Oh, and all of the members of the roster are paid to play baseball. They also wear uniforms and have bats, gloves and hats.

[Maxbialystock]

They both have a defined roster, a starting rotation, a starting lineup and a bullpen. Oh, and all of the members of the roster are paid to play baseball. They also wear uniforms and have bats, gloves and hats.

 

Nice.