A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

Do you know the reason why they gave him the day off?

 

Paper said scheduled day off.....something Cora is famous for.

 

He wanted right handed bats but Casas is in the lineup along with Verdugo.

[Nick]

I get it that you have to perform where you play.

 

But that based clearing double looked like a routine fly ball in any other park. Kutter was unlucky.

[Nick]

Must see TV tonight...Whitlock on the mound.

 

Sure beats watching Kluber and Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

Paper said scheduled day off.....something Cora is famous for.

 

He wanted right handed bats but Casas is in the lineup along with Verdugo.

 

I've never agreed with so many scheduled days off, and right during a hot streak is unforgivable.

 

At least this one coincided with facing a lefty.

 

You don't bench a hot hitter when your team is struggling to score runs.

[Randy Red Sox]

i think you pretty much nailed it with this post. So long as Bloom can put a .500 team on the field AND keep the payroll down he is set for life.

Talking heads in Boston now discussing firing Cora, while Tomase just wrote a column speculating "why Bloom may have a job for life."

 

I don't see a scenario where both Bloom and Cora are axed together in sweeping organizational change. Cora has been as subtly outspoken as he can be with his oft-repeated, "the roster is the roster." His oft-criticized moves have all been made with the players he was assigned. Any honest fan still watching knows that the talent is just not there.

 

But Cora will be long gone before next season. Bloom -- who isn't going anywhere because he is doing exactly what he was hired to do -- will finally be allowed to bring in his own man... and it won't be some recycled grizzled vet tasked with firing up wet tinder.

 

The next Red Sox manager will be a young, first-time big league skipper; someone schooled in ivy halls whose MLB resume begins and ends at an analytics department. His main strength is he'll be really good at doing puzzles...

[moonslav59]

i think you pretty much nailed it with this post. So long as Bloom can put a .500 team on the field AND keep the payroll down he is set for life.

 

It wasn't enough to keep Ben around.

 

1. I think the spending cuts are temporary and have already begun to be eased.

2. I think time will be given to correctly evaluate the farm building, and since many of Blooms highest picks were from HS, 4 years is not long enough.

3. I think the expectation, after 2020, of course, was to be better than .500 and maybe compete for a playoff slot by 2022 or 2023. (We jumped the gun in 2021, but look to be going two straight on misses.

 

I'm not making any predictions, but with Devers and Yoshida in their primes, and Story moving beyond his, 2024 might be "the year" we spend significantly over the tax line, maybe including a bunch or 1-2 year deals, so a reset will be easier in year 2 or 3. (I said the same about 2023, so I'm not holding my breath.)

 

The farm has started to make contributions, although some are faltering of late, and we hear a lot about the lack of good young pitchers on the team and in the farm. I don't disagree, but I do think there is an improvement, of late.

 

After the Devers promotion in 2017, we basically saw Houck as the only meaningful player promoted until Bello, last summer. That's 5 years getting just Houck! (And, people wonder why we can't win. It's seem so obvious, to me.)

 

Now, counting trades, waivers and Rule 5, these are the pitchers under team control until at least 2026 and who are 29 or younger:

 

Whitlock (Rule 5- option 2026)

Schreiber (Waivers- arb 3 is 2026)

Houck (System- arb 3 is 2027)

Bello (System- pre arb)

Winckowski (Trade- pre arb)

Crawford (System- pre arb)

(Drohan might be our best minor league hope closest to ML ready.)

 

I'm not going to brag about this list. Other teams have done better and much better, but this list is clearly better than any list we've had in a long time.

 

Under 29.

Under team control for 3+ years.

 

Is this promising enough for JH to think Bloom gets a longer leash, as we wait for HS everyday players to mature?

 

I have no answer. After what happened to Ben, and he won a ring vs Bloom's 2021 near miss, I would think Bloom is gone after 2023, but I'm wondering, if Bloom saw not giving Ben one more year as a mistake.

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

Games Played so far.

 

65 Devers Age 26

65 Turner Age 38

 

Yeah, one's a DH and the other 3B.

 

Why not DH Devers?

 

Why do we baby these athletes? Is it so hard to swing a bat? What are your thoughts on this Mr. Robinson? Mr. Gehrig?

 

he thinks it's Little League where everybody plays and the wins don't matter?

[moonslav59]

I hate to bring this up in mid June, and it does not mean I have given up on the season, but the way we are playing, it seems like a fire sale might be a possibility or even a likely event. Some of our players will not be in demand, let alone high demand, but we can afford to pay most or all of their salaries, in order to improve the return. Even paying all of some players salaries may still not bring back much.

 

Here is a breakdown of who we may put on the block:

(Don't shoot me for listing players that are untradeable.)

 

Last Year of Control (est 1/3 or remaining salary in $Ms)

6.5 Kike

6.5 Kluber (w option and no buyout)

2.5 Duvall

1.5 Paxton

1.0 Mondesi

 

2024 Last Year of Control

9.0 Sale w $27.5M in '24 and $20M option with no buyout for '25.

5.5 Jansen w $16M in '24

3.0 Turner w $13.4M player '24 option and $6.7M buyout (chances are he takes it and we don't buy it out.)

2.5 Martin w 9.5 owed in '24

2.0 Verdugo w 3rd/last arb in '24

2.0 Pivetta w 3rd/last arb in '24

1.0 Bleier w $250K buyout of option in '24

0.6 Arroyo w 3rd/last option in '24

 

3+ Years of Control

I seriously doubt we trade Devers, Yoshida or Story.

I seriously doubt we trade any promising young players.

0.5 Joely w $500K buyout in '24 and 3rd arb in '25

0.4 McGuire w 2 arb years left

0.4 Chang w 2 arbs left

0.4 Refsnyder w $1.9M in '24 + option for '25 w $150K buyout

Dalbec may be the only prospect readily available

[moonslav59]

I still think this can be the same team that won 7 in a row. Maybe we can go 10-1 in a stretch. Probably not, but maybe. The pitching has improved by a lot. The bats have not been a thing anybody really worried about, until mid Mayish.

 

Right now, we are 5 back from the Yanks, who hold the final WC slot.

 

TOR (4 Games ahead of BOS) and LAA (3.5 ahead) are between un and NYY.

 

It's not impossible, and I'm not basing this hope on any evidence or hint of a positive trend coming, but I just don't think the team is as bad as it has looked over the past few weeks. Maybe we were also not as good as we looked when we were 4 or 5 games over .500, too, but there is still a lot of baseball left to be played. Other teams ahead of us have some major weaknesses, too.

[Nick]

Only player I'd hate to trade would be Martin. He could close for us if Jansen is traded.

 

I would think we"d get something in return for Paxton. He could be a valuable commodity for a contender, Texas?

[Old Red]

Only player I'd hate to trade would be Martin. He could close for us if Jansen is traded.

 

I would think we"d get something in return for Paxton. He could be a valuable commodity for a contender, Texas?

If Jansen gets traded it means the season is over, so it doesn’t matter 1 iota if there is anyone left to close, or not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Obviously the offense has to rebound if the Red Sox are to make any kind of wild card run. Verdugo, Yoshida and Turner will continue to contribute. Two keys: if Duvall regains strength and stability in his injured appendage to swing a hot bat again, it provides line-up protection for Devers, and allows Raffy to heat up with the weather; another source, like Duran or Casas, will also have to break out.

 

Not impossible, and we'll know in the next month if Boston will be buyers or sellers. For the latter to make any difference in the rebuild, Bloom has to be prepared to trade his major assets. The Sox aren't going to land any future rotation or line-up mainstays for Rob Refsnyder. Fans should expect to say goodbye to guys like Jansen and Verdugo; it may hurt for a second, but then it'll be over...

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously the offense has to rebound if the Red Sox are to make any kind of wild card run. Verdugo, Yoshida and Turner will continue to contribute. Two keys: if Duvall regains strength and stability in his injured appendage to swing a hot bat again, it provides line-up protection for Devers, and allows Raffy to heat up with the weather; another source, like Duran or Casas, will also have to break out.

 

Not impossible, and we'll know in the next month if Boston will be buyers or sellers. For the latter to make any difference in the rebuild, Bloom has to be prepared to trade his major assets. The Sox aren't going to land any future rotation or line-up mainstays for Rob Refsnyder. Fans should expect to say goodbye to guys like Jansen and Verdugo; it may hurt for a second, but then it'll be over...

 

If you trade Jansen and Verdugo, what does that say about the plan for 2024?

 

I can't see Bloom doing it.

[Bellhorn04]

i think you pretty much nailed it with this post. So long as Bloom can put a .500 team on the field AND keep the payroll down he is set for life.

 

I can't believe anyone actually believes that.

[Bellhorn04]

I've never agreed with so many scheduled days off, and right during a hot streak is unforgivable.

 

At least this one coincided with facing a lefty.

 

You don't bench a hot hitter when your team is struggling to score runs.

 

I'm old school enough not to like it either.

 

But the way I see it, if you're going to have scheduled rest days, you kind of have to stick to the schedule, or else there's not much point having it. Because you're always going to find reasons to mess with the schedule.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you trade Jansen and Verdugo, what does that say about the plan for 2024?

 

I can't see Bloom doing it.

 

If only Paxton stays healthy for the next month and goes 5-0... then we might be able to get a decent prospect.

 

Otherwise, who else will return any value beyond more David Hamiltons (a guy playing the position in Triple A that's the biggest need for his last place parent club... and they won't even give him a call)?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they should extend Paxton instead.

[Dipre]

Paper said scheduled day off.....something Cora is famous for.

 

He wanted right handed bats but Casas is in the lineup along with Verdugo.

 

Oh, so they're not babying him, which let me tell you, it's a stupid comment to begin with. These are people with lives, regardoess of how you feel about the money they make.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh, so they're not babying him, which let me tell you, it's a stupid comment to begin with. These are people with lives, regardoess of how you feel about the money they make.

 

What do you think of scheduled rest days, Dipre? I understand the concept 100%. I also get why it drives the average fan nuts sometimes.

[Dipre]

What do you think of scheduled rest days, Dipre? I understand the concept 100%. I also get why it drives the average fan nuts sometimes.

 

It doesn't piss me off in baseball as much as it does basketnall. It's a 162 game slog, and some of these guys won't take a day off unless the manager makes them tale a day off, believe it or not. Scheduling days off helps the manager not have to choke hold the player out of the lineup on the same day, and gives guys a needed mental break.

[Bellhorn04]

It doesn't piss me off in baseball as much as it does basketnall. It's a 162 game slog, and some of these guys won't take a day off unless the manager makes them tale a day off, believe it or not. Scheduling days off helps the manager not have to choke hold the player out of the lineup on the same day, and gives guys a needed mental break.

 

I suspect that the mental break is considered to be even more important than the physical break.

[Dipre]

I suspect that the mental break is considered to be even more important than the physical break.

 

That's what I think, but I'm no psychologist. Working on anything while your mind is scrambled sucks though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I suspect that the mental break is considered to be even more important than the physical break.

 

My gut instincts tell me you may be right.

 

But they wind up wounded, not even dead.

[mvp 78]

If only Paxton stays healthy for the next month and goes 5-0... then we might be able to get a decent prospect.

 

Otherwise, who else will return any value beyond more David Hamiltons (a guy playing the position in Triple A that's the biggest need for his last place parent club... and they won't even give him a call)?

 

It depends on what Bloom wants to do. If he's building for the future beyond '24, it would make sense to deal Jansen if there's a substantial return. If he thinks he can't extend Verdugo, he should probably consider the same thing. Verdugo's trade value will only go down from here the closer he gets to FA.

 

Will they already punt on '24? Doubtful as they keep telling us they are going to be competitive, but do it in a half assed manner. Most of us like the concept as presented, but not the execution. There have been some good things that Bloom has done, but lots of bad things too.

[Nick]

Oh, so they're not babying him, which let me tell you, it's a stupid comment to begin with. These are people with lives, regardoess of how you feel about the money they make.

 

Stupid comments? Put me on ignore you motherf***er.

[mvp 78]

Spicy.

[Nick]

The guy thinks sitting Devers was mainly due to a left hander starting.

 

Think about that statement.

 

Overriding factor was scheduled day off.

 

Your comment is dumb and stupid.

 

Apparently he thinks Cora is now platooning Devers.

 

And I hurt someone's feelings.

[mvp 78]

The guy thinks sitting Devers was mainly due to a left hander starting.

 

Think about that statement.

 

Overriding factor was scheduled day off.

 

Your comment is dumb and stupid.

 

Apparently he thinks Cora is now platooning Devers.

 

And I hurt someone's feelings.

 

It was probably time for him to take a "scheduled day off" and they waited for a LHP to be the starter? IDK.

 

As for the babying comment, I ain't going back a few pages to read all about that. You guys can hash that out on your own. The ignore feature works both ways from my experience.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In an interview a few weeks ago, Cora hinted -- but wouldn't admit -- that Devers may have a nagging injury slowing him down to explain why he doesn't bust it down the line on groundballs.

 

This could also explain why a guy like Verdugo gets "benched" for not hustling, while Raffy gets "rested" once a week. Any double standards for professionals would otherwise destroy team morale.

[Dipre]

Stupid comments? Put me on ignore you motherf***er.

 

I do f*** some moms. Still a pretty dumb thing to say, my friend.