A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Maxbialystock]

Just posted on Fangraphs:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/slumping-red-sox-get-a-boost-with-the-returns-of-chris-sale-and-kyle-schwarber/

 

Sale joins a rotation that has been more solid and stable than spectacular. The Red Sox are the only team in the majors with five pitchers who have made at least 20 starts apiece, but both Garrett Richards (5.22 ERA, 5.17 FIP) and Martín Pérez (4.77 ERA, 4.92 FIP) have recently been exiled to the bullpen in favor of rookie Tanner Houck (who has yo-yoed between Triple-A Worcester and Boston but is expected to remain in the majors following Tuesday’s start against the Yankees) and Sale. The unit as a whole ranks a middling eighth in the AL in ERA (4.52) but fourth in FIP (3.92), though in the second half, those numbers have risen to 4.67 and 4.07, respectively. A lack of defensive support — the Sox are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (.658), 18 points below the 14th-ranked Orioles and 35 points below league average — has contributed to the ERA/FIP gap. Of the five regular starters, only Nick Pivetta has a BABIP below .325, and both Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez have ERAs more than a run above their FIPs. While the Sox aren’t likely to push either Sale or the 25-year-old Houck too hard, the hope is that they can at least pitch deeper into ballgames than the pair they replaced, who by combining to average less than five innings per turn taxed a bullpen that’s been hit for a 4.93 ERA and 4.14 ERA since the All-Star break.

 

Agree. I've tended to blame the Sox pitching, but agree the defense is suspect, which your numbers confirm.

 

Right now the Sox have three players with good DWAR's: Hernandez (1.4), Vazquez (.9), and Arroyo (.6). Wong is .1, and so is Arauz.

 

The not so good DWAR's belong to: Dalbec (-1.1), JDM (-.6), Plawecki (-.4), Bogie (-.4), and Duran (-.2)

 

Devers, Verdugo, and Renfroe (with his 14 outfield assists) all have DWAR's of 0.0 and have taken the hippocratic oath: first do no harm.

[mvp 78]

Agree. I've tended to blame the Sox pitching, but agree the defense is suspect, which your numbers confirm.

 

Right now the Sox have three players with good DWAR's: Hernandez (1.4), Vazquez (.9), and Arroyo (.6). Wong is .1, and so is Arauz.

 

The not so good DWAR's belong to: Dalbec (-1.1), JDM (-.6), Plawecki (-.4), Bogie (-.4), and Duran (-.2)

 

Devers, Verdugo, and Renfroe (with his 14 outfield assists) all have DWAR's of 0.0 and have taken the hippocratic oath: first do no harm.

 

Duran with -.2 in such short period of time is impressive.

[mvp 78]

Not if it's only painted.

 

Seems like a foreign substance issue then.

[Hugh2]

Duran with -.2 in such short period of time is impressive.

 

Remember how horrible Devers defense was the first 5-6 weeks? He must have been a plus (slightly) defender since then to put up a .0 Dwar.

 

This seems to pass the eye test two. After an ugly start Devers has looked much better at 3rd.

[a700hitter]

Today, the Rays signed David Robertson to bolster their bullpen. Of well, we got some bum from the Pirates.

[dgalehouse]

Two of the biggest games of year tomorrow. And they are going to be seven inning games. Thanks Manfred , you clod.

[moonslav59]

Today, the Rays signed David Robertson to bolster their bullpen. Of well, we got some bum from the Pirates.

 

Are we so sure DR will bolster?

[Hugh2]

If we signed DR on August 1st people would be bitching and moaning.

 

People just like to complain.

[MADSTORK]

Every hitter in the history of the game has been streaky. It's the nature of the sport.

 

I guess you never watched Tony Gwynn hit?

[Hugh2]

I guess you never watched Tony Gwynn hit?

 

There’s also a difference between a guy who slumps for 5 days vs. 2 weeks. Yes, all hitters are generally streaky, but some much more than others.

 

I miss watching Gwynn hit.

[User Name]

I guess you never watched Tony Gwynn hit?

 

I did, and he had bad games, and even bad weeks. That's a clown comment bro.

[moonslav59]

I guess you never watched Tony Gwynn hit?

 

The thing is, a slump for someone like Gwynn was hitting .650 to .700, not .450 to .550.

 

I checked out a few of his best seasons and found this:

 

1997: the year he hit .372 (.957 OPS)

35 games stretch hitting .287 (.730 OPS) near the end of the year.

 

1994: his best OPS year (1.022)

Was the model for consistency. After being at .898 on April 22, he never fell below .967, and even then, he was only under .982 after just 2 games the rest of the season! He was over .990 after all but 4 games after 4/22.

 

1986: the year he had his most PAs (701) .848 OPS

.741 in first 17 games (not far from .848).

.675 in 24 game stretch from 7/17 to 8/12.

 

Not your normal "slumps."

 

[iortiz]

Today, the Rays signed David Robertson to bolster their bullpen. Of well, we got some bum from the Pirates.

 

Are they still in the team?

[iortiz]

By Pepén

 

Los abridores #RedSox en los últimos 9 juegos:

 

Pivetta

Houck

Richards

Ed-Rod

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

Sale

Ed-Rod

 

2.39 ERA - 61 K - 11 BB

 

Richards y Pérez (fin de semana):

 

0.00 ERA - 4 IP - 5 K - 0 BB - 1 SV

 

Seguimos, Positivo y OK.

[notin]

Today, the Rays signed David Robertson to bolster their bullpen. Of well, we got some bum from the Pirates.

 

36yo Dave Robertson hasn’t been any good since 2018. He’s exactly the type of guy most Sox fans complain about if the Sox sign him…

[a700hitter]

Wthout throwing a pitch for the Dodgers, Cole Hamels has hit the 60 day DL.

[Larry Cook]

Wthout throwing a pitch for the Dodgers, Cole Hamels has hit the 60 day DL.

 

Hamels can take the seat next to Mookie!

[moonslav59]

The Yanks and Rays won, but the night did bring some good news:

 

The CWS beat Oak, which moves us into the WC1 slot, and the Royals beat the Astros, which may not matter at all.

 

Updated AL Standings

 

72-47 TBR

70-48 HOU

69-50 CWS

69-51 BOS (.5 from 3rd best record and 3.5 from ALE lead)

68-51 OAK WC2 (tough schedule catching up)

 

66-52 NYY -1.5 from WC2 and -2.0 from us.

63-54 TOR -4.0 WC2

63-56 SEA -5.0 WC2

 

 

[moonslav59]

Wthout throwing a pitch for the Dodgers, Cole Hamels has hit the 60 day DL.

 

Maybe David Robertson will do the same.

[notin]

Wthout throwing a pitch for the Dodgers, Cole Hamels has hit the 60 day DL.

 

Still upset at Bloom for passing on him?

[moonslav59]

Still upset at Bloom for passing on him?

 

It appears some just wanted Bloom to appear to try doing something.

 

Robles & Davis did not count.

[notin]

It appears some just wanted Bloom to appear to try doing something.

 

Robles & Davis did not count.

 

But at least they're both healthy.

 

I have some faith in Robles, who at least had a decent season back in 2019. I think Davis was just brought in to be a LH placeholder until Darwinzon returns...

[Noles_1335]

what are some potential return dates on the guys that are out?

[moonslav59]

what are some potential return dates on the guys that are out?

 

From mlb.com:

 

INF Christian Arroyo (left hamstring strain)

Expected return: Aug. 20

Arroyo has had a good rehab week and ran the bases again on Aug. 15. The plan is for him to start a Minor League rehab assignment on Aug. 17. If all goes well, Arroyo could be activated for the Aug. 20 game against the Rangers. Arroyo’s right-handed bat would give manager Alex Cora more flexibility against lefty starters. He is also a good pinch-hitting option against lefties. (Last updated: Aug. 15)

 

LHP Darwinzon Hernandez (right oblique strain)

Expected return: September

It has been slow going for Hernandez in his return from a right oblique strain, and it now looks as if he won’t return until September. The move of Martín Pérez to the bullpen has helped fill the void left by Hernandez. But getting Hernandez back for the stretch run could make a difference for the Red Sox.

 

“It's slow a little bit,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said on Aug 15. “He played catch to 80 feet, he'll do the same thing today. I don't expect him to start a rehab assignment soon. He's not behind. He's where he should be with his process, so little by little he's getting better, but nothing off the mound for a while.” (Last updated: Aug. 15)

 

RHP Matt Andriese (right hamstring tendinitis)

Expected return: Aug. 17-18

Andriese will make the third appearance of his Minor League rehab assignment on Saturday for Triple-A Worcester. The Red Sox will reassess where he’s at on Monday and there’s a chance he could be activated for the series at New York on Tuesday. (Last updated: Aug. 14)

 

1B/OF Danny Santana (left groin strain)

Expected return: Aug. 20-24

Santana is on a similar timetable to Christian Arroyo and could go on a rehab assignment by Aug. 17. (Last updated: Aug. 13)

 

60-day IL

RHP Ryan Brasier (concussion)

Expected return: Late August

Brasier’s second appearance of his rehab assignment didn’t go nearly as well as the first. Pitching for Triple-A Worcester on Aug. 13, the righty allowed five hits and five runs. However, Red Sox manager Alex Cora didn’t sound concerned.

 

“I think the stuff was the same," Cora said. "I think he threw 18 pitches and they swung at 15 of them, so that’s part of the process. That’s part of rehab assignments. The stuff, the numbers that we got, they’re good. We’re still on the same path.” Cora added that Brasier will pitch again for Worcester on Aug. 15. (Last updated: Aug. 14)

[Maxbialystock]

Remember how horrible Devers defense was the first 5-6 weeks? He must have been a plus (slightly) defender since then to put up a .0 Dwar.

 

This seems to pass the eye test two. After an ugly start Devers has looked much better at 3rd.

 

Devers was actually at +.3 DWAR a few weeks ago, so it has dropped a little. He has range, pretty good hands, and a strong arm that sometimes betrays him. He and Bogaerts both have a habit of of half-throwing a couple of times before finally delivering. Bottom line: I don't think the Sox are going to move him to 1b next year or the year after.

[mvp 78]

From today:

 

@ChrisCotillo

Red Sox injury updates:

* Christian Arroyo starts rehab assignment as WooSox DH tonight

* Ryan Brasier will throw on back-to-back days (Wed, Thu) for Worcester

* Matt Andriese scheduled for 2 innings tonight for WooSox

* Danny Santana could start rehab this week

[Maxbialystock]

From mlb.com:

 

INF Christian Arroyo (left hamstring strain)

Expected return: Aug. 20

Arroyo has had a good rehab week and ran the bases again on Aug. 15. The plan is for him to start a Minor League rehab assignment on Aug. 17. If all goes well, Arroyo could be activated for the Aug. 20 game against the Rangers. Arroyo’s right-handed bat would give manager Alex Cora more flexibility against lefty starters. He is also a good pinch-hitting option against lefties. (Last updated: Aug. 15)

 

LHP Darwinzon Hernandez (right oblique strain)

Expected return: September

It has been slow going for Hernandez in his return from a right oblique strain, and it now looks as if he won’t return until September. The move of Martín Pérez to the bullpen has helped fill the void left by Hernandez. But getting Hernandez back for the stretch run could make a difference for the Red Sox.

 

“It's slow a little bit,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said on Aug 15. “He played catch to 80 feet, he'll do the same thing today. I don't expect him to start a rehab assignment soon. He's not behind. He's where he should be with his process, so little by little he's getting better, but nothing off the mound for a while.” (Last updated: Aug. 15)

 

RHP Matt Andriese (right hamstring tendinitis)

Expected return: Aug. 17-18

Andriese will make the third appearance of his Minor League rehab assignment on Saturday for Triple-A Worcester. The Red Sox will reassess where he’s at on Monday and there’s a chance he could be activated for the series at New York on Tuesday. (Last updated: Aug. 14)

 

1B/OF Danny Santana (left groin strain)

Expected return: Aug. 20-24

Santana is on a similar timetable to Christian Arroyo and could go on a rehab assignment by Aug. 17. (Last updated: Aug. 13)

 

60-day IL

RHP Ryan Brasier (concussion)

Expected return: Late August

Brasier’s second appearance of his rehab assignment didn’t go nearly as well as the first. Pitching for Triple-A Worcester on Aug. 13, the righty allowed five hits and five runs. However, Red Sox manager Alex Cora didn’t sound concerned.

 

“I think the stuff was the same," Cora said. "I think he threw 18 pitches and they swung at 15 of them, so that’s part of the process. That’s part of rehab assignments. The stuff, the numbers that we got, they’re good. We’re still on the same path.” Cora added that Brasier will pitch again for Worcester on Aug. 15. (Last updated: Aug. 14)

 

Thanks. Only Arroyo and Hernandez mean much, and right now I think Hernandez is more important than Arroyo, who can't stay off the IL.

 

I know you like Arroyo at 2b, where he is pretty decent and a good bat--and lets Kike can stay in CF. I like Kike in CF too, but the Sox have a surplus of good bats besides his who can't play in the infield: Verdugo, Renfroe, JDM, and Schwarber. Plus Duran (whose WAR, however, is -.4).

[Maxbialystock]

This is the kind of confusing stuff that folks like dgalehouse ridicule...

 

To a degree. However, his main point is the same as mvp 78's: the Sox defense is hurting the Sox pitching and not just a little.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Josh Taylor ‘feels good,’ and Sox are hopeful of having him for both games, per Alex Cora

 

Some good news.

[Bellhorn04]

To a degree. However, his main point is the same as mvp 78's: the Sox defense is hurting the Sox pitching and not just a little.

 

But we have the top UZR/150 in the AL.