A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

But we have the top UZR/150 in the AL.

 

I'm quickly losing faith in that stat.

 

I apologize for defending it so much in the past.

[mvp 78]

I'm quickly losing faith in that stat.

 

Is that stat just based on getting to balls and fielding them cleanly? Maybe the issue is the throwing to 1B? Maybe the issue is the type of contact the starters are giving up?

[mvp 78]

Cora may not believe in UZR/150 either.

 

Renfroe is starting in CF today, but has a -89.2 UZR/150 in CF this season.

[Bellhorn04]

Is that stat just based on getting to balls and fielding them cleanly? Maybe the issue is the throwing to 1B? Maybe the issue is the type of contact the starters are giving up?

 

I thought it was supposed to be the most comprehensive of all defensive stats?

[mvp 78]

I thought it was supposed to be the most comprehensive of all defensive stats?

 

Is it? I have no idea. Wouldn't that be dWAR?

[moonslav59]

Is that stat just based on getting to balls and fielding them cleanly? Maybe the issue is the throwing to 1B? Maybe the issue is the type of contact the starters are giving up?

 

We don't seem to be getting to as many balls as we should or as other teams seem to do vs us.

 

Our pitching suffers from the worst BAbip in the league, and it's not even close.

 

DRS has about in the middle.

 

Our D sucks. It's not even close.

[User Name]

I'm quickly losing faith in that stat.

 

I apologize for defending it so much in the past.

 

This team has one of the worst batted ball profiles of any contending team. Can't blame the defense for the pitching giving up lots of line drives and barrels.

[User Name]

I thought it was supposed to be the most comprehensive of all defensive stats?

 

It is. But it's not perfect. Defense is too hard to measure, and using uzr/150 instead of UZR compounds the issue, because UZR/150 is more predictive than cumulative in smaller samples.

[mvp 78]

This team has one of the worst batted ball profiles of any contending team. Can't blame the defense for the pitching giving up lots of line drives and barrels.

 

That is my question too. It's not necessarily "defense bad."

[notin]

It is. But it's not perfect. Defense is too hard to measure, and using uzr/150 instead of UZR compounds the issue, because UZR/150 is more predictive than cumulative in smaller samples.

 

Exactly.

 

And Fenway skews it a bit because the zone for left field can’t count those balls hit 25 feet up the monster where any play is impossible.

 

It is worth noting the Sox team defense is supported by great numbers in LF (2nd in MLB) which might mask some of the other positions, notably 3b (14th), SS (16th) and 1b (27th)…

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Matt Andriese's time with the Red Sox is done, as the club designated him for assignment. Josh Taylor activated from the COVID-19 IL.

[notin]

Cora may not believe in UZR/150 either.

 

Renfroe is starting in CF today, but has a -89.2 UZR/150 in CF this season.

 

I think he’s lining them up for the stadium.

 

He has JD in the smaller RF and Verdugo covering the expansive LF…

[moonslav59]

This team has one of the worst batted ball profiles of any contending team. Can't blame the defense for the pitching giving up lots of line drives and barrels.

 

The thing is, it's not that.

 

We are 11th out of 15 AL teams in Hard Hit Ball Percentage at 31.0%- (really 4th best) -actually better than TRB and CHW.

 

It's interesting to point out that the top 7 AL playoff contenders have the best 7 hard hit% numbers:

 

29.7 OAK & HOU

30.3 NYY

30.4 TOR

31.0 BOS

31.2 CWS & TBR

31.4 LAA

31.5 SEA

(Even SEA and LAA are placed near the top in the standings, too!)

 

LD% shows us looking pretty bad, but the difference bwteen being 2nd last and middle of the road is just 0.6%.

 

Best

18.2 NYY

19.4 TOR

19.8 DET

20.4 CLE

20.5 SEA & HOU

20.7 TBR

20.8 CWS

20.9 MIN

21.1 KCR & OAK

21.2 TEX

21.5 BOS & LAA

21.9 BAL

 

The Sox are also 3rd best in Soft Hit % at 17.6% (behind only NYY & CWS)

 

We are 5th in HR/FB at 12.6%, 4th in GB% (43.5%)and 3rd in GB/FB at 1.25.

 

We are also 4th in K% (24.8%), so less balls are put in play than most teams, thank God!

 

Our K/BB rate is 6th (2.79)

 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[User Name]

The thing is, it's not that.

 

We are 11th out of 15 AL teams in Hard Hit Ball Percentage at 31.0%- (really 4th best) -actually better than TRB and CHW.

 

It's interesting to point out that the top 7 AL playoff contenders have the best 7 hard hit% numbers:

 

29.7 OAK & HOU

30.3 NYY

30.4 TOR

31.0 BOS

31.2 CWS & TBR

31.4 LAA

31.5 SEA

(Even SEA and LAA are placed near the top in the standings, too!)

 

LD% shows us looking pretty bad, but the difference bwteen being 2nd last and middle of the road is just 0.6%.

 

Best

18.2 NYY

19.4 TOR

19.8 DET

20.4 CLE

20.5 SEA & HOU

20.7 TBR

20.8 CWS

20.9 MIN

21.1 KCR & OAK

21.2 TEX

21.5 BOS & LAA

21.9 BAL

 

The Sox are also 3rd best in Soft Hit % at 17.6% (behind only NYY & CWS)

 

We are 5th in HR/FB at 12.6%, 4th in GB% (43.5%)and 3rd in GB/FB at 1.25.

 

We are also 4th in K% (24.8%), so less balls are put in play than most teams, thank God!

 

Our K/BB rate is 6th (2.79)

 

 

 

 

I am in court looking up some documents foe a divorce, but I will expand on this topic when I get back. The cumulative numbers are mediocre, and not necessarily a reflection of crappy defense. Also again, uzr/150 is beyond terrible in smaller samples.

 

I don't see how you can turn on UZR while supporting CERA honestly.

[moonslav59]

I am in court looking up some documents foe a divorce, but I will expand on this topic when I get back. The cumulative numbers are mediocre, and not necessarily a reflection of crappy defense. Also again, uzr/150 is beyond terrible in smaller samples.

 

I don't see how you can turn on UZR while supporting CERA honestly.

 

They are wildly different things. One isn't even a stat.

[moonslav59]

@ChrisCotillo

Matt Andriese's time with the Red Sox is done, as the club designated him for assignment. Josh Taylor activated from the COVID-19 IL.

 

Finalmente!

[Bellhorn04]

Hard to say which fans get more excited about - a good signing, or a good DFA.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Since the beginning of July, No. 9 hitters are hitting .275/.338/.443 against Red Sox pitchers. League average No. 9 hitters (non-pitcher variety) are posting a .220/.293/.354 line.

 

Figuring out how to blame this on UZR.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Matt Andriese's time with the Red Sox is done, as the club designated him for assignment. Josh Taylor activated from the COVID-19 IL.

 

So about Andriese...

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Since Tanner Houck has moved into the rotation, here are his batters faced per start: 18 (7/22), 15 (7/28), 16 (8/7), 21 (8/12), 18 (8/17). Today, he got pulled at only 58 p. w/the top of the order coming up. Very clear the Red Sox don’t want hitters seeing him for a third time.

[a700hitter]

@IanCundall

Since Tanner Houck has moved into the rotation, here are his batters faced per start: 18 (7/22), 15 (7/28), 16 (8/7), 21 (8/12), 18 (8/17). Today, he got pulled at only 58 p. w/the top of the order coming up. Very clear the Red Sox don’t want hitters seeing him for a third time.

And that worked out great.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

And that worked out great.

 

It would have worked in the year 2018.

[User Name]

It would have worked in the year 2018.

 

This is a pretty good (albeit funny) point.

[oldtimer]

And that worked out great.

 

I can't blame Cora for doing his best to win the game. Houck has not done well the third time through the order. He went to Whitlock who made bad decisions by trying to be too fine. Waling the first hitter we a 2 run lead was clearly a mistake and led to the loss of the game. Taylor also tried to get the Yankees chase and then gave up a blooper. Our pitchers failed and I hope they learned from it. Robles scares me as he lacks command even though he has a strong arm. this loss is not on Cora.

 

Base running was poor in the game as well.

[moonslav59]

Cora can’t win with some fans no matter what he chooses.

 

It’s not just Cora, either.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora can’t win with some fans no matter what he chooses.

 

Well, that's exactly right. It's always been that way. SPLINTER does not think Cora is a good manager at all, other than that players like him. But the amusing thing is, SPLINTER didn't think Francona or Farrell were good managers either. And yet those are the 3 guys who managed the team to their 4 rings in our lifetimes.

[mvp 78]

Well, that's exactly right. It's always been that way. SPLINTER does not think Cora is a good manager at all, other than that players like him. But the amusing thing is, SPLINTER didn't think Francona or Farrell were good managers either. And yet those are the 3 guys who managed the team to their 4 rings in our lifetimes.

 

Well, please don't besmirch Tito by lumping him in with Farrell.

Edited August 17, 2021 by mvp 78

[User Name]

Well, please don't besmirch Tito by lumping him in with Francona.

Wait, what?

[User Name]

Well, that's exactly right. It's always been that way. SPLINTER does not think Cora is a good manager at all, other than that players like him. But the amusing thing is, SPLINTER didn't think Francona or Farrell were good managers either. And yet those are the 3 guys who managed the team to their 4 rings in our lifetimes.

 

Cora is a good manager IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, please don't besmirch Tito by lumping him in with Francona.

 

I know you meant Farrell. I was just trying to be comprehensive.