A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

Does Shaw bring anything?

 

Right now, with Taylor and Darwinzon out, the only lefty in the Sox pen is Austin Davis. I would think Alex Claudio or Steve Gonsalves would be a bigger need. Especially now that the Yankees have Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo in the lineup..

 

No. Shaw brings nothing.

 

Perez does do well against LHB.

[Bellhorn04]

Does he? Seen him pitch lately?

 

The ball does come out of his left hand.

 

Not sure he's any worse than Davis.

[moonslav59]

Our pen has been the rock for us all year until a couple weeks ago. Barnes was showing cracks before that, but I have faith the ship will right itself.

 

It seems like every year, our pen exceeds expectations, so I've decided to expect more from them, and they have delivered most of the time.

 

Bringing Richards and Perez to the pen may give it the boost Robles and Davis failed to bring, but we won't know that for a while.

 

I'm not as worried about Ottavino as some here, but I am concerned. IMO, reports of Ottavino falling apart late in the season are greatly exaggerated. He hardly has any stats that show that to be true.

 

He's had 3 bad outings out of his last 5 and 5 out of his last 8. That is troubling, but I still think he'll turn it around.

 

Barnes holds the key.

Edited August 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

The ball does come out of his left hand.

 

Not sure he's any worse than Davis.

 

But is he worse than Claudio or Gonsalves? You know the LHRP's who maybe should be added as opposed to Shaw...

[mvp 78]

Does he? Seen him pitch lately?

 

What's you're definition of lately? Clean inning last time out.

[mvp 78]

The ball does come out of his left hand.

 

Not sure he's any worse than Davis.

 

Perez >>> Davis

[mvp 78]

But is he worse than Claudio or Gonsalves? You know the LHRP's who maybe should be added as opposed to Shaw...

 

Unfortunately, yes. Gonsalves has a 1.62 WHIP in AAA.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately, yes. Gonsalves has a 1.62 WHIP in AAA.

 

Brice has a .607 OPS against with Woo!

[mvp 78]

Brice has a .607 OPS against with Woo!

 

It's how you can judge if a pitcher could help or not. Maybe Ort? He's wrong handed, but could provide good innings.

[moonslav59]

It's how you can judge if a pitcher could help or not. Maybe Ort? He's wrong handed, but could provide good innings.

 

Ort is at .722 with a 1.42 WHIP.

 

I think we are stuck with what we have, and adding Richards and Perez is all we can expect.

 

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Richards

Perez

Davis

Sawamura

Robles

 

Until Taylor and DHern return from the IL.

 

On the 40: Rios, Valdez, Seabold, Brasier (rehab) & Andriese (rehab).

 

Non 40 man choices:

 

Ort

Brennan

Schreiber

Brice

Feltman

Adams

McCarthy

Espinal, Crawford, Gonsalves, Hart

[mvp 78]

Ort is at .722 with a 1.42 WHIP.

 

I think we are stuck with what we have, and adding Richards and Perez is all we can expect.

 

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Richards

Perez

Davis

Sawamura

Robles

 

Until Taylor and DHern return from the IL.

 

On the 40: Rios, Valdez, Seabold, Brasier (rehab) & Andriese (rehab).

 

Non 40 man choices:

 

Ort

Brennan

Schreiber

Brice

Feltman

Adams

McCarthy

Espinal, Crawford, Gonsalves, Hart

 

That's why I've said "maybe" with Ort. I don't think there is a guy in AAA that can come up and help in the near term except for Seabold.

[moonslav59]

It's how you can judge if a pitcher could help or not. Maybe Ort? He's wrong handed, but could provide good innings.

 

I never noticed Rios was sent down. He did okay for a bit.

[mvp 78]

I never noticed Rios was sent down. He did okay for a bit.

 

I'm not counting the guys who have already been here: Rios/Brice/et al.

[Maxbialystock]

One more time.

 

The Sox are just 3 games behind the Rays for the AL East and are 2.5 games ahead of the Yankees for a wild card slot and 4.5 games ahead of the Jays.

 

So "A Realistic View At 2021" says the Sox are very much in the hunt with 42 games to go.

 

Unfortunately, the Sox pitching (4.28)--defined for my purposes as team ERA--lags well behind the pitching of the Astros (3.62), Athletics (3.64), White Sox (3.65), Yankees (3.71), Rays (3.78), and Jays (3.88).

 

It cannot be a coincidence that all six of those teams are also in the hunt for the playoffs and that the Astros, White Sox, and Rays all lead their divisions.

 

On the other hand, I would be dishonest not to say that the Sox hitting--defined as runs scored--is 3d best in the AL and that Astros (627), Rays (608), Jays (604) and the White Sox (585) are in the top five AL teams in hitting (runs scored). My concern is that good pitching usually beats good hitting.

 

And my other concern is that good pitching means a good rotation and a good bullpen. With Sale back and Eovaldi, Pivetta, and ERod looking pretty good (and not just against the Orioles), the Sox rotation might be as good as it's been all season.

 

However, I say again, the Sox stalwart and crucial bullpen has depended heavily on Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Sawamura, Taylor, Hernandez. But right now Taylor is on the COVID list and Hernandez on the IL.

 

Barnes and Ottavino, our two closers, currently seem to be on the "let's give them some rest, like a couple of weeks or more" list.

If you doubt me on that, look at the game thread for yesterday in which there was an uproar because poor, vastly overworked, and exhausted Barnes was on the mound with just five days rest and having to go against the Orioles murderous lineup!!

 

Nevertheless, Sawamura and Whitlock right now seem to be the two most reliable arms in the bullpen. And that ain't enough for a team whose rotation through 120 games has averaged 4.1 innings per start.

 

I read somewhere that "hope is not a method," but right now I'm hoping that Richards and Perez will be better in the bullpen than as starters, that Valdez can pick up some of the slack, and that the vastly overworked Ottavino and Barnes can bounce back after another week or two of rest (and when Taylor gets over COVID and Hernandez his injury).

 

The beauty of MLB and this season is that tomorrow and Wednesday we get a good test of my incessant whining because the Sox play 3 vs. the oncoming Yankees. If the Sox win 2 out of 3, I'm an idiot. If the Yankees sweep, my worries will continue.

[moonslav59]

I'm not counting the guys who have already been here: Rios/Brice/et al.

 

I thought we were looking at who can help, now, and are not on the current 26.

[moonslav59]

One more time.

 

The Sox are just 3 games behind the Rays for the AL East and are 2.5 games ahead of the Yankees for a wild card slot and 4.5 games ahead of the Jays.

 

So "A Realistic View At 2021" says the Sox are very much in the hunt with 42 games to go.

 

Unfortunately, the Sox pitching (4.28)--defined for my purposes as team ERA--lags well behind the pitching of the Astros (3.62), Athletics (3.64), White Sox (3.65), Yankees (3.71), Rays (3.78), and Jays (3.88).

 

It cannot be a coincidence that all six of those teams are also in the hunt for the playoffs and that the Astros, White Sox, and Rays all lead their divisions.

 

On the other hand, I would be dishonest not to say that the Sox hitting--defined as runs scored--is 3d best in the AL and that Astros (627), Rays (608), Jays (604) and the White Sox (585) are in the top five AL teams in hitting (runs scored). My concern is that good pitching usually beats good hitting.

 

And my other concern is that good pitching means a good rotation and a good bullpen. With Sale back and Eovaldi, Pivetta, and ERod looking pretty good (and not just against the Orioles), the Sox rotation might be as good as it's been all season.

 

However, I say again, the Sox stalwart and crucial bullpen has depended heavily on Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Sawamura, Taylor, Hernandez. But right now Taylor is on the COVID list and Hernandez on the IL.

 

Barnes and Ottavino, our two closers, currently seem to be on the "let's give them some rest, like a couple of weeks or more" list.

If you doubt me on that, look at the game thread for yesterday in which there was an uproar because poor, vastly overworked, and exhausted Barnes was on the mound with just five days rest and having to go against the Orioles murderous lineup!!

 

Nevertheless, Sawamura and Whitlock right now seem to be the two most reliable arms in the bullpen. And that ain't enough for a team whose rotation through 120 games has averaged 4.1 innings per start.

 

I read somewhere that "hope is not a method," but right now I'm hoping that Richards and Perez will be better in the bullpen than as starters, that Valdez can pick up some of the slack, and that the vastly overworked Ottavino and Barnes can bounce back after another week or two of rest (and when Taylor gets over COVID and Hernandez his injury).

 

The beauty of MLB and this season is that tomorrow and Wednesday we get a good test of my incessant whining because the Sox play 3 vs. the oncoming Yankees. If the Sox win 2 out of 3, I'm an idiot. If the Yankees sweep, my worries will continue.

 

Our pitching staff is 3rd in fWAR in the AL- barely ahead of TBR and OAK, but significantly ahead of HOU, SEA and way ahead of TOR.

 

ERA is deceptive due to home parks and strength of opponent's offense teams face.

 

Our xFIP is 4th, and it's our defense that is killing our pitching numbers, IMO. We are killing ourselves in BAbip- the worst in the AL by a lot.

 

.324 BOS

.312 BAL

.306 KCR

.299 LAA

 

Wanna see who 7 of the best teams in the AL are? Look at the lowest BAbip #s:

.270 HOU

.279 NYY

.282 CWS

.283 OAK

.284 TOR

.285 CLE

.286 TBR

.289 SEA

Those are the top 7 of the top 8 teams in the AL, except for the Sox.

 

Our ERA- is 7th and behind every contender, except SEA. Our WHIP is a pathetic 13th.

 

It's our defense- not our pitching.

 

(Note: I'm losing my faith in UZR/150 as it shows us with the top D in the AL. (DRS shows us 6th best in the AL.)

Edited August 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Our pitching staff is 3rd in fWAR in the AL- barely ahead of TBR and OAK, but significantly ahead of HOU, SEA and way ahead of TOR.

 

ERA is deceptive due to home parks and strength of opponent's offense teams face.

 

Our xFIP is 4th, and it's our defense that is killing our pitching numbers, IMO. We are killing ourselves in BAbip- the worst in the AL by a lot.

 

.324 BOS

.312 BAL

.306 KCR

.299 LAA

 

Wanna see who 5 of the best teams in the AL are? Look at the lowest BAbip #s:

.270 HOU

.279 NYY

.282 CWS

.283 OAK

.284 TOR

.285 CLE

.286 TBR

.289 SEA

Those are the top 7 of the top 8 teams in the AL, except for the Sox.

 

Our ERA- is 7th and behind every contender, except SEA. Our WHIP is a pathetic 13th.

 

It's our defense- not our pitching.

 

(Note: I'm losing my faith in UZR/150 as it shows us with the top D in the AL. (DRS shows us 6th best in the AL.)

 

This is the kind of confusing stuff that folks like dgalehouse ridicule...

[moonslav59]

This is the kind of confusing stuff that folks like dgalehouse ridicule...

 

That's why I posted it!

 

LOL!

[mvp 78]

I thought we were looking at who can help, now, and are not on the current 26.

 

I'm more interested in untested guys.

[moonslav59]

I'm more interested in untested guys.

 

As better options than Rios/Valdez?

 

I'm not seeing any, but it is interesting to talk about it.

[mvp 78]

Just posted on Fangraphs:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/slumping-red-sox-get-a-boost-with-the-returns-of-chris-sale-and-kyle-schwarber/

 

Sale joins a rotation that has been more solid and stable than spectacular. The Red Sox are the only team in the majors with five pitchers who have made at least 20 starts apiece, but both Garrett Richards (5.22 ERA, 5.17 FIP) and Martín Pérez (4.77 ERA, 4.92 FIP) have recently been exiled to the bullpen in favor of rookie Tanner Houck (who has yo-yoed between Triple-A Worcester and Boston but is expected to remain in the majors following Tuesday’s start against the Yankees) and Sale. The unit as a whole ranks a middling eighth in the AL in ERA (4.52) but fourth in FIP (3.92), though in the second half, those numbers have risen to 4.67 and 4.07, respectively. A lack of defensive support — the Sox are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (.658), 18 points below the 14th-ranked Orioles and 35 points below league average — has contributed to the ERA/FIP gap. Of the five regular starters, only Nick Pivetta has a BABIP below .325, and both Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez have ERAs more than a run above their FIPs. While the Sox aren’t likely to push either Sale or the 25-year-old Houck too hard, the hope is that they can at least pitch deeper into ballgames than the pair they replaced, who by combining to average less than five innings per turn taxed a bullpen that’s been hit for a 4.93 ERA and 4.14 ERA since the All-Star break.

[mvp 78]

As better options than Rios/Valdez?

 

I'm not seeing any, but it is interesting to talk about it.

 

Nothing to speak of.

[moonslav59]

Just posted on Fangraphs:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/slumping-red-sox-get-a-boost-with-the-returns-of-chris-sale-and-kyle-schwarber/

 

Sale joins a rotation that has been more solid and stable than spectacular. The Red Sox are the only team in the majors with five pitchers who have made at least 20 starts apiece, but both Garrett Richards (5.22 ERA, 5.17 FIP) and Martín Pérez (4.77 ERA, 4.92 FIP) have recently been exiled to the bullpen in favor of rookie Tanner Houck (who has yo-yoed between Triple-A Worcester and Boston but is expected to remain in the majors following Tuesday’s start against the Yankees) and Sale. The unit as a whole ranks a middling eighth in the AL in ERA (4.52) but fourth in FIP (3.92), though in the second half, those numbers have risen to 4.67 and 4.07, respectively. A lack of defensive support — the Sox are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (.658), 18 points below the 14th-ranked Orioles and 35 points below league average — has contributed to the ERA/FIP gap. Of the five regular starters, only Nick Pivetta has a BABIP below .325, and both Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez have ERAs more than a run above their FIPs. While the Sox aren’t likely to push either Sale or the 25-year-old Houck too hard, the hope is that they can at least pitch deeper into ballgames than the pair they replaced, who by combining to average less than five innings per turn taxed a bullpen that’s been hit for a 4.93 ERA and 4.14 ERA since the All-Star break.

 

Our poor defense is one reason I want to see Kike in CF. It's not enough to move the needle that much, but any little bit helps.

 

The question is, which is better?

 

Kike> Duran in CF

 

or

 

Kike> Arroyo at 2B?

 

[Maxbialystock]

As better options than Rios/Valdez?

 

I'm not seeing any, but it is interesting to talk about it.

 

I like Rios/Valdez and am hopeful Richards and Perez can be useful in relief.

 

Indeed, against the Orioles the Sox bullpen pitched 10 innings, giving up 1 run with notable contributions from Richards (3 innings/0 runs), Sawamura (2/0), Robles (1/0), Davis (1/0), Whitlock (1.2/0) and Perez (1/0). Ottavino, on the other hand was .1/1, and Barnes was 1/0 while giving up a double and a single.

 

We'll know a lot more after Tues/Wed and 3 at Yankee Stadium.

[moonslav59]

Having Monday, Thursday and Monday off in the next 8 days should help us limit having to over use our best RP'ers, but even if our pen does well, this week, I'll still be concerned, as I am with our starters and defense, too.

 

The offense is the only thing I know can and will bounce back from bad stretches.

[mvp 78]

Our poor defense is one reason I want to see Kike in CF. It's not enough to move the needle that much, but any little bit helps.

 

The question is, which is better?

 

Kike> Duran in CF

 

or

 

Kike> Arroyo at 2B?

 

 

I'd take Kiké at CF and Arroyo at 2B for our best fielding team.

[iortiz]

I think Arroyo has a golden glove at 2B.

[mvp 78]

I think Arroyo has a golden glove at 2B.

 

Gonna be hard to squeeze.

[moonslav59]

I think Arroyo has a golden glove at 2B.

 

He's never played over 200 innings at 2B, until this year.

 

Last year, he looked kinda shaky.

 

When the moved him 10 1B, instead of Kike, who had actually played 1B in MLB over 80 innings, I figured Cora liked Kike's D at 2B more than Arroyo's.

 

I think Cora once said Kike was the best defensive 2B in the league, too. So there is that.

 

I agree on Kike>>> Duran in CF.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Gonna be hard to squeeze.

 

Not if it's only painted.