A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

It's the defense!

 

They tore the Popeye's down so it has to be something else, right?

[moonslav59]

You look like it?

 

Only if you look very closely.

[Bellhorn04]

You look like it?

 

You might be too young to remember the great Norm Crosby.

[mvp 78]

You might be too young to remember the great Norm Crosby.

 

Mothers mold their children's minds. There are millions of moldy minded kids.

[Maxbialystock]

It seems we have to rely on beating up the bottom feeders and tankers to save the day. Have to thank that imbecile Manfred for the soft schedule to both begin and end the season.

 

I'll piggyback on your comment to address the general topic: whither the Sox in the remaining games?

 

While I agree that ultimately it always boils down to winning and/or losing games, right now it seems to me the bullpen is the biggest culprit. Our closer doesn't. Instead, he opens the floodgates for opposing hitters. His backup closer, if anything, is worse. And now Whitlock, who still has the best WAR and the best ERA in the bullpen, has given up 4 runs in his last 3 relief appearances (and a total of 3.9 innings). Taylor isn't look all that reliable either, and Hernandez is on the IL until September.

 

I like the insights into the effect of the defense, but honestly don't think the defense is as big a problem as the bullpen, not when they are walking guys (Whitlock and Taylor) and giving up dingers (Barnes).

 

I can't figure the hitting out except to say they can hit bad pitching (Orioles), but have trouble with good pitching (Yankees). Plus, as others have said repeatedly, the whole come from behind thing seems to have been been, well, left behind.

 

I continue to trust in Cora even though Houck maybe could have pitched the 5th yesterday instead of Whitlock, but, honestly, that's 20-20 hindsight (except that in fact I did say stay with Houck on the game thread before Whitlock came in because I figured Whitlock for the 6th and 7th innings).

 

So, one more time: this team is going nowhere unless and until the bullpen reasserts itself, which just might not be possible.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

@PeteAbe

#RedSox bullpen had a 3.48 ERA with opponents hitting .236 through July 28.

 

Since: 6.93 ERA with opponents hitting .300.

 

Only the Pirates (6.95), Cubs (7.86) and Orioles (8.96) are higher.

 

Not coming from behind AND losing the leads they do have. Bad combo.

 

Interesting. I've read somewhere that Barnes has been a disaster in the last two months of the season for most of his career but I didn't look up the numbers. It is also well known that over the last few seasons Ottavino struggled toward the end of the regular season so much so that the Yankees basically lost all confidence in using him in the playoffs. When you think about it, the bullpen was a disaster just waiting to happen and the Red Sox didn't adequately address the bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring two scrubs rather than a quality bullpen arm. That is part of the reason why Bloom failed to deliver at the deadline.

 

Bloom's biggest challenge next season is arguably the bullpen. The Red Sox need to be prepared for Barnes' late season struggles. Ottavino will be gone, maybe they spend some money on the bullpen in free agency, but a stud reliever like Kimbrel won't be there, the White Sox will pick up his option. I don't know what the Red Sox's plans are for Whitlock. Does he profile as a starter or perhaps a future closer? I guess similar uncertainty surrounds Houck.

 

Such questions will be answered in due time. At present, the 2021 Red Sox are a tremendous ballclub, an unstoppable baseball machine that will cruise into the playoffs and destroy all opponents. After all, the Red Sox now have Travis Shaw at first base who makes the Red Sox a "more complete team." Shaw is Alex Cora's love child, his second favorite son, only surpassed by his fondness for the great Marwin Gonzalez.

Edited August 18, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

Interesting. I've read somewhere that Barnes has been a disaster in the last two months of the season for most of his career but I didn't look up the numbers. It is also well known that over the last few seasons Ottavino struggled toward the end of the regular season so much so that the Yankees basically lost all confidence in using him in the playoffs. When you think about it, the bullpen was a disaster just waiting to happen and the Red Sox didn't adequately address the bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring two scrubs rather than a quality bullpen arm. That is part of the reason why Bloom failed to deliver at the deadline.

 

Bloom's biggest challenge next season is arguably the bullpen. The Red Sox need to be prepared for Barnes' late season struggles. Ottavino will be gone, maybe they spend some money on the bullpen in free agency, but a stud reliever like Kimbrel won't be there, the White Sox will pick up his option. I don't know what the Red Sox's plans are for Whitlock. Does he profile as a starter or perhaps a future closer? I guess similar uncertainty surrounds Houck.

 

Such questions will be answered in due time. At present, the 2021 Red Sox are a tremendous ballclub, an unstoppable baseball machine that will cruise into the playoffs and destroy all opponents. After all, the Red Sox now have Travis Shaw at first base who makes the Red Sox a "more complete team." Shaw is Alex Cora's love child, his second favorite son, only surpassed by his fondness for the great Marwin Gonzalez.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-barnes/12863/splits?position=P&season=0

 

He is horrible in August for whatever reason. In September, he settles back in and pitches better.

[Bellhorn04]

Shaw is Alex Cora's love child, his second favorite son, only surpassed by his fondness for the great Marwin Gonzalez.

 

That didn't take long.

[vegasbob]

9-15 over the last 24 games; 15-21 over last 36; and 33-30 since the Yankee sweep in June (credit to Moon ) tells you that the pumpkin of overachievement and enthusiasm for late game comebacks disguised the fact that this was always a .500 team based on roster. 3 legitimate regular lineup hitters (Bogey, Devers, JDM) , a mid range catcher (Vaz) , maybe Verdugo as a decent player. The right side of the IF never stabilized, Renfro would be a good filler off the bench , Duran is a premature callup with potential , Dalbec is another whose future is fading, Plawecki is a backup who helped somewhat, Arroyo couldn't stay on the field . Kike would be another great guy on your bench. Arauz, not quite prime time , may never be. Cordero, long Gonzales, and Danny Santana were trash.

 

Pitching, you can figure it out. Starters averaging less than 5 innings, a BP who helped the run up in the first half but can't find their command now. Nice to see Chris Sale back but even he was held back a start or two from coming to the rescue. For the time being he can't change the momentum by going 5 innings every fifth day.

 

So I contended early on that this was a .500 team with a nice couple winning streaks ( 9 and 8 gamers) but in no way was the roster playoff ready. Bloom confirmed that with the trade deadline minor moves. Nothing that said we can compete.

 

40 games to go with a reasonable schedule. I'll take the odds now on a 20W-20L rest of season resulting in a just missed WC spot. Personally, I root for them to win the WS, but it isn't with this crew.

Edited August 18, 2021 by vegasbob

[oldtimer]

This is certainly not fun to watch. It looks like a full meltdown.

 

When is the last time we had a come from behind win?

 

(It was our strength not long ago, but of course, it's not a "repeatable skill," so there's that.)

 

I still think this team is much better than we have sown in the last 2-3 weeks. (9-15 over the last 24 games/ 15-21 in the last 36)

 

We are just 33-30 since our Yankee sweep back in early June.

 

Just getting back to that winning % may be too much to ask, at this point, easy schedule and all.

 

I still have high hopes, though.

 

Maybe one come from behind win is the spark we need.

 

If it takes an easy schedule to get to the playoffs, what happens when the schedule then gets tough?

[Bellhorn04]

If it takes an easy schedule to get to the playoffs, what happens when the schedule then gets tough?

 

Let's jump off that bridge when we come to it.

[moonslav59]

Interesting. I've read somewhere that Barnes has been a disaster in the last two months of the season for most of his career but I didn't look up the numbers. It is also well known that over the last few seasons Ottavino struggled toward the end of the regular season so much so that the Yankees basically lost all confidence in using him in the playoffs. When you think about it, the bullpen was a disaster just waiting to happen and the Red Sox didn't adequately address the bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring two scrubs rather than a quality bullpen arm. That is part of the reason why Bloom failed to deliver at the deadline.

 

Bloom's biggest challenge next season is arguably the bullpen. The Red Sox need to be prepared for Barnes' late season struggles. Ottavino will be gone, maybe they spend some money on the bullpen in free agency, but a stud reliever like Kimbrel won't be there, the White Sox will pick up his option. I don't know what the Red Sox's plans are for Whitlock. Does he profile as a starter or perhaps a future closer? I guess similar uncertainty surrounds Houck.

 

Such questions will be answered in due time. At present, the 2021 Red Sox are a tremendous ballclub, an unstoppable baseball machine that will cruise into the playoffs and destroy all opponents. After all, the Red Sox now have Travis Shaw at first base who makes the Red Sox a "more complete team." Shaw is Alex Cora's love child, his second favorite son, only surpassed by his fondness for the great Marwin Gonzalez.

 

First of all, the "end of last season" was almost the whole season, so using that against Ottavino is a bit much. Plus, the guy had 18 IP, last year. Do we want to say he sucks late year based on one bad game in 2020?

 

2019: .624 Season OPS Against

.637 OPS Aug to SEP (2.79 ERA)

 

2018: .509 Season OPS Against

.592 OPS Against but a 4.44 ERA AUG>SEP

 

Over his career, his worst months are:

 

June .867

July .743

SEP .704 (Not bad at all)

 

Barnes' worst OPS Against months-career:

.881 Aug

.724 June

.704 Sep (not bad at all)

 

Recent years?

2019:

.608 in SEP (.891 Aug)

2018:

.772 in SEP (1.044 Aug)

Looks like Barnes has not liked August, too much, but 2020...

1.012 July

.744 Aug

.566 Sep

[mvp 78]

Saying "he's bad over the last two months" only makes sense because of how August skews the numbers. Phantom DL. Call up Ort. Call up anyone. Throw s*** at the wall.

[mvp 78]

@IanMBrowne

Scheduling nugget that might make you feel better about Red Sox playoff chances. Of their last 39 games starting Friday, 23 are against sub .500 teams. In their most recent 39-game stretch which ends tonight, 30 were against teams over .500. 9 were against sub. 500 teams.

 

You heard it here (on TS) first. These dum dums just follow us.

[mvp 78]

@NBCSEdgeBB

Blue Jays designate Rafael Dolis for assignment

 

Bloom... don't!

[notin]

@NBCSEdgeBB

Blue Jays designate Rafael Dolis for assignment

 

Bloom... don't!

 

Why not?

 

Dolis’ rough year was largely put on him by the Red Sox, and they are the one team he’d never have to face if he came to Boston.

 

The Sox have a . 952 OPS against Dolis in 46PA this season. That is his most PA against any team. The other teams to have even double digit PA against Dolis, the Yankees (.333 OPS in 18 PA), the Rays (.528 OPS in 20PA) and the Rangers (.550 in 20PA) have all struggled with him at times…

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Alex Cora says that game reports on Ryan Brasier suggest similar fastball/slider pitch data to last year - despite poor results (8R in 3G). ‘He’s getting close to joining the team.’

[mvp 78]

Why not?

 

Dolis’ rough year was largely put on him by the Red Sox, and they are the one team he’d never have to face if he came to Boston.

 

The Sox have a . 952 OPS against Dolis in 46PA this season. That is his most PA against any team. The other teams to have even double digit PA against Dolis, the Yankees (.333 OPS in 18 PA), the Rays (.528 OPS in 20PA) and the Rangers (.550 in 20PA) have all struggled with him at times…

 

That's a fire I don't want to play with. What would his numbers be against TOR?

[notin]

That's a fire I don't want to play with. What would his numbers be against TOR?

 

Who cares? We don’t play them anymore.

 

But we do have 10 games left with Tampa and NY…

[moonslav59]

We are running low on players to activate. There goes some of the best discussion posts.

 

We have Brasier in rehab.

 

We have Arroyo on the IL with no clear timetable for his return.

 

We have DHern still on the IL with a return estimate listed as September.

 

We have Santana on the IL, but who the F cares?

________________________

 

So, here's my 2 cents:

 

Brasier activated from 60 day IL, Santana DFA'd and Davis demoted to AAA (Robles has no options remaining.)

 

Arroyo promoted: Arauz demoted

 

D Hern promoted: Robles DFA'd or kept on the Sept expanded roster. (Or, add Munoz to 40 and call him up for Sept.)

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Davis has been better than Robles.

[moonslav59]

Davis has been better than Robles.

 

Agreed. I’m not sure the options thing matters more than who is better. They both might be gone if DHern returns.

[moonslav59]

If everyone ever gets healthy, here is my prediction for the 28 man September roster:

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck

RP: Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Taylor, Richards, Perez, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Schwarber, Dalbec, Shaw

2B: Arroyo, Munoz

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez, Duran

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

 

maybe Arauz or Wong over Munoz.

[MADSTORK]

Interesting. I've read somewhere that Barnes has been a disaster in the last two months of the season for most of his career but I didn't look up the numbers. It is also well known that over the last few seasons Ottavino struggled toward the end of the regular season so much so that the Yankees basically lost all confidence in using him in the playoffs. When you think about it, the bullpen was a disaster just waiting to happen and the Red Sox didn't adequately address the bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring two scrubs rather than a quality bullpen arm. That is part of the reason why Bloom failed to deliver at the deadline.

 

Bloom's biggest challenge next season is arguably the bullpen. The Red Sox need to be prepared for Barnes' late season struggles. Ottavino will be gone, maybe they spend some money on the bullpen in free agency, but a stud reliever like Kimbrel won't be there, the White Sox will pick up his option. I don't know what the Red Sox's plans are for Whitlock. Does he profile as a starter or perhaps a future closer? I guess similar uncertainty surrounds Houck.

 

Such questions will be answered in due time. At present, the 2021 Red Sox are a tremendous ballclub, an unstoppable baseball machine that will cruise into the playoffs and destroy all opponents. After all, the Red Sox now have Travis Shaw at first base who makes the Red Sox a "more complete team." Shaw is Alex Cora's love child, his second favorite son, only surpassed by his fondness for the great Marwin Gonzalez.

 

Good thing Orlando handed the last stooge a contract extension. Great Move Orlando, "you ain't made a bad move yet"

[oldtimer]

If everyone ever gets healthy, here is my prediction for the 28 man September roster:

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck

RP: Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Taylor, Richards, Perez, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Schwarber, Dalbec, Shaw

2B: Arroyo, Munoz

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez, Duran

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

 

maybe Arauz or Wong over Munoz.

 

Sox defense is tough right now. Need to think about how we fill positions with defense in mind.

[oldtimer]

If everyone ever gets healthy, here is my prediction for the 28 man September roster:

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck

RP: Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Taylor, Richards, Perez, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Schwarber, Dalbec, Shaw

2B: Arroyo, Munoz

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo

CF: Hernandez, Duran

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

 

maybe Arauz or Wong over Munoz.

 

Neither Wong or Arauz can hit so i go with Munoz. He should have been up long ago. We don't need Shaw but we have no one else we can bring up so he stays.

[moonslav59]

Sox defense is tough right now. Need to think about how we fill positions with defense in mind.

 

Another play tonight that should have been made but wasn’t.

 

It opened the flood gates, but all runs were earned.

 

Our D sucks. Munoz is not an improvement on D.

 

Arroyo at 2B and Kike in CF helps some.

[MADSTORK]

Pivetta right on cue tonight hey boys?

 

Like I said grab your balls and use your minor league system cus it can't be any worse.

 

Bello age 22 76IP 112K

Groome age 22 64IP 92K

Seabold age 25 25IP 27 K

Murphy age 23 86IP 102K

Crawford age 25 66IP 86K

[oldtimer]

Another play tonight that should have been made but wasn’t.

 

It opened the flood gates, but all runs were earned.

 

Our D sucks. Munoz is not an improvement on D.

 

Arroyo at 2B and Kike in CF helps some.

 

We had 2 hits tonight until the final inning. Munoz is worth a try to give us more OBP. Yes, he doesn't provide stellar defense but then we have two very slow DH's who can play outfield badly. Schwaber may be able to play some 1st base but probably not even as well as Dalbec. We need to shake things up. Arroyo will help but until our hitters practice better plate discipline we will continue to have issues. We chase balls out of the zone and on 3 and 2 counts it often costs us base runners.

I

[oldtimer]

Pivetta right on cue tonight hey boys?

 

Like I said grab your balls and use your minor league system cus it can't be any worse.

 

Bello age 22 76IP 112K

Groome age 22 64IP 92K

Seabold age 25 25IP 27 K

Murphy age 23 86IP 102K

Crawford age 25 66IP 86K

 

Pivetta is getting a bad rap. His defense let him down and he got at least one bad call on a walk.