How deep could these Sox REALLY go?

[Bailey_Fox]

Over the period of this season, we’ve seen a Red Sox team that seemed to be impossible to beat. We’ve also seen a Sox team that couldn’t BUY a win. What do you guys are is the keys to a deep 2026 postseason run, and how far do you think they can go?

[moonslav59]

I think going to the the AL Championship round or WS is a legit expectation.

Beating the NL team coupled with already getting that far seems like a very long shot.

Playing at NYY and TBR will mean we will be underdogs, but I like our top 6 pitchers:

SP: Gray, Tolle & Suarez

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Bennett

That matches up pretty well with any team.

Defense:

3rd in DRS (TBR is #2 & NYY 14th) Sox are 8th in OAA with no AL playoff team better.

Offense....

Sine June 25th, the Sox are...

#1 in Runs scored in the AL (3rd in MLB) TBR is #7 and NYY #27.

#1 in OPS in AL (4th in MLB) TBR 6th & NYY 29th

[vegasbob]

NTF = Not Too Far

Could beat the Yankees in 3 is about it. Anything can happen in a short series 

This group has spent September showing that the bats are missing 

Very good pitching has not been well supported over the past 66 games

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, vegasbob said:

This group has spent September showing that the bats are missing ...

12 Games is kinda small to think this is who they are and will be.

Go back to AUG 17 and we are top 12 in offense, ahead of all AL playoff teams, except NYY and CLE. 

[illinoisredsox]

What would really help our chances in the first round would be to have the Yankees close the gap with the Rays to 1 game between now and the final weekend.  That would force both teams to go all out to fend off each other and not allow them to set up their rotations for the first round.

[NHNative]

Let's stay with the positive waves, man.

[drewski6]

If we can win a 3 game series in the Bronx round one, I think we can go all the way to the WS.  No offense to anyone, but it doesnt make sense to me be like ALCS is their peak.  Maybe if theres some standings swapping like IllinoisSox states.  

We all know this but how far you get isnt always a 100% reflection of your own team.  You can get knocked out in the first round facing a bad matchup or running into a "team of destiny" (future champ) and a weaker team can go further because of a better matchup in rd 1 or an easier route through the tournament.

Million Dollar Man Ted Dibiase didnt make the finals of the Wrestlemania IV tournament because he was the second best wrestler in the tournament, you know?  He got a little help from an Andre The Giant vs Hulk Hogan double DQ.

Also, its not always just about talent.  I am not a believer that the more talented team finds a way to win in the playoffs.  I think theres a lot of randomness baked into the cake, and we also have to consider who's hot, who's not (who sells out in stores, who's go the blue drop. Ma$e. Aint nothing change but my limp, cant stop now see my name on a blimp), 

I once saw a thread on here about how we are actually almost custom built to beat the dodgers.  And I think I only skimmed that one.  Dont remember the details. But good enough for me.  

How far can we go?  All the way, including the Italian arm hair.  Sorry thats a little Rhode Island hot weiners joke.  "6 gaggas all the way", and the dude stacks them up his arm for speed and the sweat and hair that gets in there is part of it.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If we can win a 3 game series in the Bronx round one, I think we can go all the way to the WS.  No offense to anyone, but it doesnt make sense to me be like ALCS is their peak.  Maybe if theres some standings swapping like IllinoisSox states.  

 

I agree, if we beat the Yankees, we will go far. 

I don't have much to any expectation we beat the Yankees.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I agree, if we beat the Yankees, we will go far. 

I don't have much to any expectation we beat the Yankees.

Im not expecting anything, and think we'll be less than 50%, especially on the road.  I dont think we'll be like 20% likely to win though.  It will change between now and then depending on who is healthy, who is hot.....

But most likely , we'll be somewhere between 35% and 42% likely to win the series.  Depends a lot (to me) on Gray, Contreras, Crochet - if we can see them rounding into form, looking good entering the series, I think our chances go up considerably.

[mvp 78]

6% chance to win the WS seems about right. 

[FredLynn]

17 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I agree, if we beat the Yankees, we will go far. 

I don't have much to any expectation we beat the Yankees.

COULD we beat the Yankmees? Sure. But we will be heavy underdogs against them and I certainly wouldn’t bet a penny on our chances. I hate to admit it but they are better than us. More talented-especially with Judge back. The most likely scenario is last year redux. One and done. 
And that’s unacceptable.

[drewski6]

He wants 

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

6% chance to win the WS seems about right. 

Which coincidentally is very close to the chance of winning 4 coin-flips in a row. Thats not how fangraphs calculates the 6% (assume every series is a coin-flip) because then Dodgers would be 12.5% (one less series due to bye) and they are at like 26%)

But I think this is worth pointing out to contextualize our 6%.  If you said, we have just as much a chance of winning every series as the opponent....That sounds better than 6%, even  though they are roughly the same (4 coin flips in a row is 6.25%).... 0.5->0.25->0.125 - > 0.0625

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

He wants 

Which coincidentally is very close to the chance of winning 4 coin-flips in a row. Thats not how fangraphs calculates the 6% (assume every series is a coin-flip) because then Dodgers would be near 6% and they are at like 26%)

But I think this is worth pointing out to contextualize our 6%.  If you said, we have just as much a chance of winning every series as the opponent....That sounds better than 6%, even  though they are roughly the same (4 coin flips in a row is 6.25%).... 0.5->0.25->0.125 - > 0.0625

If they beat the Yankees (50% chance), I think they have like a 25% chance from there to get to the WS. I think it really depends on what team they are facing in the WS. Dodgers would be a tough matchup. I'd like their chances against the other NL teams though.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

6% chance to win the WS seems about right. 

12 teams into 100 is about 8%, but of course, it's not this simple, as some teams get byes.

We do have a nice road record, and it's better than NYY's home record.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox have the pitching to beat any team in the postseason. However, the Yankees in the Bronx are their worst possible first-round match-up. 

New York has even better pitching: lowest Runs Allowed Per Game and ERA in the majors... though Boston is tied for second and third. The problem is that pitchers' duels in the playoffs are almost always decided by home runs -- and the Yanks lead the world in HRs, especially short porch pop-ups to RF.

The Sox have a shot because Tolle-Suarez-Gray could pitch better than any non-Schlittler starter... but Boston would have higher odds in any other playoff team's park.

(notice, no non-bracketed mention of the Replay Command Center right down the street of a desperate MLB rooting for its marquee franchise to win the World Series).

[drewski6]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox have the pitching to beat any team in the postseason. However, the Yankees in the Bronx are their worst possible first-round match-up. 

New York has even better pitching: lowest Runs Allowed Per Game and ERA in the majors... though Boston is tied for second and third. The problem is that pitchers' duels in the playoffs are almost always decided by home runs -- and the Yanks lead the world in HRs, especially short porch pop-ups to RF.

The Sox have a shot because Tolle-Suarez-Gray could pitch better than any non-Schlittler starter... but Boston would have higher odds in any other playoff team's park.

(notice, no non-bracketed mention of the Replay Command Center right down the street of a desperate MLB rooting for its marquee franchise to win the World Series).

Well, not until the end there.

[Nick]

We have solid starting pitching. I think power plays in the playoffs and we're lacking in that department.

I seem to recall Breslow saying something about that after the World Series. Lack of follow through on his promise as it relates to power will come back and bite him in the ass.

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox have the pitching to beat any team in the postseason. However, the Yankees in the Bronx are their worst possible first-round match-up. 

New York has even better pitching: lowest Runs Allowed Per Game and ERA in the majors... though Boston is tied for second and third. The problem is that pitchers' duels in the playoffs are almost always decided by home runs -- and the Yanks lead the world in HRs, especially short porch pop-ups to RF.

The Sox have a shot because Tolle-Suarez-Gray could pitch better than any non-Schlittler starter... but Boston would have higher odds in any other playoff team's park.

(notice, no non-bracketed mention of the Replay Command Center right down the street of a desperate MLB rooting for its marquee franchise to win the World Series).

Red Sox have been great playing away. Having a top 3 of Suarez/Gray/Tolle gives them as good a shot as any to go into the Bronx and win. They at least have a better shot than last year. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Nick said:

We have solid starting pitching. I think power plays in the playoffs and we're lacking in that department.

I seem to recall Breslow saying something about that after the World Series. Lack of follow through on his promise as it relates to power will come back and bite him in the ass.

 

Since July 1, they are 7th in MLB in HR. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox have been great playing away. Having a top 3 of Suarez/Gray/Tolle gives them as good a shot as any to go into the Bronx and win. They at least have a better shot than last year. 

I would favor Boston if they actually played a few games in Boston -- like in any other round vs NY.

Instead, networks can pretend they're excited about a possible Tampa vs. Cleveland or Houston match-up in the League Championship Series!

[moonslav59]

Oue 1-2-3 starters might be our-matched by our 1-2-3 RP'ers!

Chapman

Whitlock

Miller

(Bennett & Guerrero are pretty damn good, too)

Your top 3 starters and top 3 RP'ers take on more value in playoff setting.

I'm not saying the Yanks and Rays don't have nice 3 and 3's but I like ours more.

[Nick]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Since July 1, they are 7th in MLB in HR. 

And I was on a roll and little fact check stops me. Lol.

[Bellhorn04]

Who the hell knows?  It's baseball.  The Sox obviously need their stud pitchers to keep performing - Tolle, Gray, Suarez, Whitlock, Chapman.  Plus a few other contributors obviously. The lineup and bench is pretty good now.  Just need the pitching to stay at that high level.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Since July 1, they are 7th in MLB in HR. 

...and first in 2Bs

5th in ISO

2nd in OPS & wRC+

2nd in Sac Hits

And of course, 1st in HBPs.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Who the hell knows?  It's baseball.  The Sox obviously need their stud pitchers to keep performing - Tolle, Gray, Suarez, Whitlock, Chapman.  

Miller & Bennett might be better than some playoff team's 3rd, 4th or 5th best pitchers.