Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[Behindenemylines]

On 2/15/2026 at 10:53 AM, FredLynn said:

I don't mind letting everyone know how many wins the FLOPS will get this year. 90 wins, no playoffs. 

I think with the balance in the AL 90 wins gets you into the playoffs. On paper the Sox improved their pitching and defense. I'm betting the pitching depth and improve D gets them in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

I think with the balance in the AL 90 wins gets you into the playoffs. On paper the Sox improved their pitching and defense. I'm betting the pitching depth and improve D gets them in the playoffs.

Agreed.

The difference between the odds of making the playoffs from the 6th best to 7th best are...

AL: 55% BAL & 38% KC (17%)

NL: 43% PIT & 37% MIL (6%)

The Sox, at 61% are 23% higher than KCR. That's pretty significant. I know it's basically the "field" vs BOS, but why have so much faith in...

38% KCR

36% TEX

34% HOU

27% MIN

Easier schedules?

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

The difference between the odds of making the playoffs from the 6th best to 7th best are...

AL: 55% BAL & 38% KC (17%)

NL: 43% PIT & 37% MIL (6%)

The Sox, at 61% are 23% higher than KCR. That's pretty significant. I know it's basically the "field" vs BOS, but why have so much faith in...

38% KCR

36% TEX

34% HOU

27% MIN

Easier schedules?

So why do folks think Boston has less of a postseason chance than KC or Texas?  If the Sox weakness is offense, we think KC has a better solution? That team literally has one hitter…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

So why do folks think Boston has less of a postseason chance than KC or Texas?  If the Sox weakness is offense, we think KC has a better solution? That team literally has one hitter…

It's hypercriticism and negativism against the Sox. They look at the Sox under a microscope and see all the cracks and dents. 

What the hell did KC, HOU & TEX do to get even a tiny bit better?

The Yanks winter refrain was "Run it back!" I mean, who brags and about standing pat?

The O's made some legitimate moves, but there is room for 4 ALE teams making the dance. The schedules are not so lop-sided anymore.

I like our chances of finishing 2nd more than 3rd, and that is more out of my dislike at what NYY and TOR did, this winter. I see 4th place as a 10% chance.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

So why do folks think Boston has less of a postseason chance than KC or Texas?  If the Sox weakness is offense, we think KC has a better solution? That team literally has one hitter…

My cousin Vinnie?

And the Skanks can ruin it back all they want, but Juan Soto isn't walking through that door.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

 That team literally has one hitter…

That was what Fred meant when he said we "Need one big bat!"

[Duran Is The Man]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

wow....no respect for the team that won the most games in baseball last year.

[notin]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That was what Fred meant when he said we "Need one big bat!"

Ohhhhhh.   See I thought he wanted to add one, but apparently we need to pare down to one…

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Ohhhhhh.   See I thought he wanted to add one, but apparently we need to pare down to one…

Yes, trade our best 9 bats for the best one in MLB.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hypercriticism and negativism against the Sox. They look at the Sox under a microscope and see all the cracks and dents. 

What the hell did KC, HOU & TEX do to get even a tiny bit better?

The Yanks winter refrain was "Run it back!" I mean, who brags and about standing pat?

The O's made some legitimate moves, but there is room for 4 ALE teams making the dance. The schedules are not so lop-sided anymore.

I like our chances of finishing 2nd more than 3rd, and that is more out of my dislike at what NYY and TOR did, this winter. I see 4th place as a 10% chance.

Hypercriticism, and negativism? Wow! Most fans that I know of only care about their own team, and what they do, and don’t do, and don’t critique what other teams do, or don’t do. You can worry about what to hell all the other teams have done, and didn’t do, but that doesn’t change the so called microscope the Red Sox are put under by their fans, and nor do I think there is anything wrong with that at all. If it bothers you, and evidently it does, because you’ve mentioned it more than once then so be it. Poor, poor Red Sox how will they be able to hold up, and win under so much pressure from your SO CALLED negativism, and hypercriticism. Unbelievable.🙈

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Hypercriticism, and negativism? Wow! 

Wow, what?

Those words too big for you?

They are tame for what goes on here, very often. You doubt that?

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Poor, poor Red Sox how will they be able to hold up, and win under so much pressure from your SO CALLED negativism, and hypercriticism. Unbelievable.🙈

Where do you get this psychobabble from?

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

I think with the balance in the AL 90 wins gets you into the playoffs. On paper the Sox improved their pitching and defense. I'm betting the pitching depth and improve D gets them in the playoffs.

Are you satisfied with making a guest appearance in the playoffs like last year?

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow, what?

Those words too big for you?

They are tame for what goes on here, very often. You doubt that?

Why does it bother you so much what other fans say, and think?  Way, way over the top. If some want to criticize, and be negative, or call JH cheap that’s their prerogative, and there is nothing wrong with that despite what you like, or think about it.

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, Kimmi said:

That makes a lot of sense.  I don't want to see a lot of moving parts either.  I really would like to see the Red Sox commit to Mayer as a full time player as opposed to a platoon player.  

Yeah, I think this year is going to be heavy platoon however (assuming he makes the team). Then given the full runway next year if he proves to be healthy and good this year.

[Hugh2]

Injuries can change a lot for a lot of teams too.  What happens to the Yankees odds if they lose Aaron Judge? If they lost Aaron Judge that would literally drop them 20 places in offense projections.

It really makes you realize how much a big season can not just do for a player but for a team. 

What if Duran has another season like his 2024 and hits for more power? what if Abreu starts hitting LHP and just becomes a monster, what if Roman Anthony looks like guy who was ranked the #1 prospect in all of baseball last year and puts up 8 WAR???

It's easy to be pessimistic, because injuries happen and guys underperform, but 50% of the time the exact opposite is happening, teams stay healthy and guys performances evolve and peak. 

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow, what?

Those words too big for you?

They are tame for what goes on here, very often. You doubt that?

I do, and I think its a function of you not "foruming" into other sports. I can link you to a couple Celitcs forums where they are talking about how the celtics are the worst run team in NBA.

You havent seen cartoonish level negativity outside of Fred.  This place , overall, is extremely homer.

Even to the point of inserting demonstrably false recollections of key offeseason events because they get in the way of the "Breslow knows what he is doing" narrative.

The team , the Red Sox team, right now, is solid but vulnerable to injuries to our 4-5 solid bats.  But Im talking more about the "heres what I choose to believe what happened...."

You have a forum cheering when your key players opt out , cheering salary dumps, cheering undervaluing the market.  It all shows hometown slant.

I, for one, have a huge hometown slant.  At least thats what they tell me in the celtics forums.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I do.

Now, that is worthy of a "wow."

Just one page of any game thread offers enough evidence.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Now, that is worthy of a "wow."

Just one page of any game thread offers enough evidence.

Okay, Ill give you that.  

But in-game anxiety isnt exactly a this place only thing.  And Im not too active on game threads because Im usually watching games with friends over or out and about.  So I dont see that as much.  When I do read up on game threads, I agree it seems to be a different mix of posters and more negative, but again, a lot of that is anxiety and defensive mechanisms against it (which towel waving is, right?)

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Old Red said:

Why does it bother you so much what other fans say, and think?  Way, way over the top. If some want to criticize, and be negative, or call JH cheap that’s their prerogative, and there is nothing wrong with that despite what you like, or think about it.

Why do you keep assuming you know what I'm thinking, despite me constantly telling you that you get my beliefs and intentions wrong?

"Bothers me?" You're the one saying "Wow" like what I said bothered you, but I won't assume I know what bothers you. I'll leave that to you to keep doing.

No, there is absolutely nothing wrong with someone calling JH cheap. I disagree that is the word that fits and voice my opinion. Why does me voicing my opinion "bother you so much?" 

See how I did that? (That's what you do.)

I happen to think some posters make statements that are hypercritical and overly negative. It should not bother anyone for me to say that, but if it does that's on them.

Some posters are more optimistic than others, too.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why do you keep assuming you know what I'm thinking, despite me constantly telling you that you get my beliefs and intentions wrong?

"Bothers me?" You're the one saying "Wow" like what I said bothered you, but I won't assume I know what bothers you. I'll leave that to you to keep doing.

No, there is absolutely nothing wrong with someone calling JH cheap. I disagree that is the word that fits and voice my opinion. Why does me voicing my opinion "bother you so much?" 

See how I did that? (That's what you do.)

I happen to think some posters make statements that are hypercritical and overly negative. It should not bother anyone for me to say that, but if it does that's on them.

Some posters are more optimistic than others, too.

I havent seen anyone outside of Fred, be cartoonish level, negative.  Im not super into game threads, and I believe there may be more examples of it there.  

Regarding if this Red Sox forum is especially negative vs other RS forums vs other team forums vs other sports forums....I dont think you are a particularly great person to ask.

I generally post here and on a Celtics forum, and that Celtics forum is a ton more negative than this place.  But thats also a low sample size.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You have a forum cheering when your key players opt out , cheering salary dumps, cheering undervaluing the market.  It all shows hometown slant.

LOL wut? Show me the posts. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I havent seen anyone outside of Fred, be cartoonish level, negative.  Im not super into game threads, and I believe there may be more examples of it there.  

Regarding if this Red Sox forum is especially negative vs other RS forums vs other team forums vs other sports forums....I dont think you are a particularly great person to ask.

I generally post here and on a Celtics forum, and that Celtics forum is a ton more negative than this place.  But thats also a low sample size.

Is there a benefit to having cartoonishly negative posters around? Does it make the conversation better? Does it provide better info? 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I havent seen anyone outside of Fred, be cartoonish level, negative.  Im not super into game threads, and I believe there may be more examples of it there.  

Regarding if this Red Sox forum is especially negative vs other RS forums vs other team forums vs other sports forums....I dont think you are a particularly great person to ask.

I generally post here and on a Celtics forum, and that Celtics forum is a ton more negative than this place.  But thats also a low sample size.

I don't think this site is overly negative or hypercritical, in general, but there seems to be a noticeable amount of it, IMO. I've been critical of many things the team has done, too. Maybe some feel I went too far with some things I've said, too.

Of course, Fred is in a category all by himself, and the occasional trolls make appearances, now and again. Most that criticize often, at least give reasons for their statements or have insightful debates when countered with another view.

I don't expect or want everyone or even most people to agree with my positions. I know I have some positions that run counter to the majority. It's funny how my wife sometimes says I'm too negative and worry about the worst case scenario, too much. I'm not always more optimistic about the Sox than others, and Ole Red never let anyone forget I was the first poster to give up on a season a few years back. Maybe someone thought I was being hypercritical and negative or thought of it in different terms.

To me, hypercritical does not mean people are negative about 100% of Sox, and being overly negative doesn't mean you think we're going to go 60-102. I do feel some posters seem to be more positive about other teams that did nothing special over the winter, while focusing on us missing out on a big bat means we'll do worse. I disagree. Most posters are not "hyper" critical or "overly" negative, and most sites like this often turn into places where people vent their frustrations, and that can come across as looking hyper and overly...

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is there a benefit to having cartoonishly negative posters around? Does it make the conversation better? Does it provide better info? 

I have no problems with Fred. I used to be him for a few decades. I'd be a hypocrite if he "bothered me." I don't think disagreeing is "bothersome." 

Posters like the Stork and the guy who thinks Duran is a better defender than Abreu are somewhat bothersome, to me, but such is life.

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is there a benefit to having cartoonishly negative posters around? Does it make the conversation better? Does it provide better info? 

Entertainment?

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Injuries can change a lot for a lot of teams too.  What happens to the Yankees odds if they lose Aaron Judge? If they lost Aaron Judge that would literally drop them 20 places in offense projections.

It really makes you realize how much a big season can not just do for a player but for a team. 

What if Duran has another season like his 2024 and hits for more power? what if Abreu starts hitting LHP and just becomes a monster, what if Roman Anthony looks like guy who was ranked the #1 prospect in all of baseball last year and puts up 8 WAR???

It's easy to be pessimistic, because injuries happen and guys underperform, but 50% of the time the exact opposite is happening, teams stay healthy and guys performances evolve and peak. 

You will have guys whose stock will raise as the season progresses and guys whose stock will fall.  We'll adjust to the twists and turns as best we can like every team.

[drewski6]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

LOL wut? Show me the posts. 

Bregman

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman

That's a post? 

Who was happy he opted out? I think it was expected he'd opt out. 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's a post? 

Who was happy he opted out? I think it was expected he'd opt out. 

I recall a few people glad he opted out, I dont feel like going and searching.