Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

 The Jays are better because they greatly improved after signing Cease and Okomoto. They won 94 games last year and are better this year.

The Jays added Cease (4.55 ERA in 170 IP) but lost Bassitt (3.96 ERA in 170 IP). Your negativity disappears for other teams.

The Jays added Okamoto but lost Bichette (.840 OPS in 2025.) If Okamoto hits .840, Yoshida should hit .830.

To be fair, the Jays also added Ponce and Tyler, but Bieber is already going to the IL on opening day, Gausman is 35 and Berrios turns 32 in May. (Cease is 30.) Springer turns 37 late in the season.

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

they greatly improved after signing Cease and Okomoto.

So Cease and Okamoto are a great improvement over Bichette & Bassitt?

[notin]

Baseball Digest had their 2026 preview, with their predictions for AL pistseason

AL East

1. Toronto 

2. Boston (WC)

Yankees in 4th, missing the postseason

 

AL Central 

1. Detroit 

2. Kansas City

Not sure about KC over Cleveland here.

 

AL West

1. Houston

2. Seattle

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Your negativity disappears for other teams.

I posted something similar right after you posted yours.  That's why I skim over his posts.  If one wants a real discussion, they have to deal in real facts.

FWIW, TO did almost the identical thing the RS did.

• We had almost identical scoring teams.
• They lost Bichette and we lost Bregman.
• They made their biggest acquisition a #2 SP, and we made our biggest acquisition a #2 SP.
• They added Ponce to the rotation and we added Gray.
• They added Okamoto to the IF and we added Durbin.

We're running in lock step, but Fred wants to pretend like TO did great and we didn't.  Maybe it is my accounting background, but I expect a little analyses.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The NYY have their ace back. 

The last time Cole was the ace of the Yanks was the year Crawford was our ace. Guess who returns to the Sox, this year?

Okay, seriously, yes, Cole is a big addition to a formidable returning team, but he starts the year on the IL, along with Rodon & Schmidt. We all have seen how that works out for countless Sox SP'er beginning the year on the IL with promises of returning to form during the season, but I'm not sure why you are able to find an ounce of optimism in the dark confines of your mind for a Yankee. So be it. I do think the Yanks look better, assuming equal health to both teams. I guess my thought is that the younger team should likely have less injuries, and we no longer have Gio, Hendriks, Houck and others as part of our 2026 plans.

38 Goldschmidt

36 Stanton, Hill

35 Cole & Cruz

34 Yarbrough

33 Judge & Rodon

32 Fried

31 Bednar & McMahon

30 Bellinger, Bird

The Yanks have 4 key players at 33 or older (same as the Sox, but Cole Judge and Rodon might be their top 3 key players.) They have 4 key players between 30-33, as the Sox have one. They have a total of 8 key players at 30 or older to the Sox 5. See below.

Most of their key players are on this list. Now look at the Sox over 30 players:

37 Chapman

36 Gray

33 Contreras & Story

32 Yoshida

31 Weissert

30 Suarez, IKF, Kelly

Sox: 4 key players at 33+ and 1 at 30-32. (5 total)

Age is not the only factor involved in projecting injury, but it is a huge factor in projecting decline- sometimes sharp declines.

Watch and weep.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

So Cease and Okamoto are a great improvement over Bichette & Bassitt?

Not to mention his argument that the Orioles would magically revert to the 2024 team’s 91-71 record despite no longer having Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez (combined record 28-9).  
 

They did add the mega-talented but oft-injured Trevor Rogers to pick up some of that, but overall I am sticking with my argument that a lot of these evaluations of other teams is being done without actually looking at those other teams…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I posted something similar right after you posted yours.  That's why I skim over his posts.  If one wants a real discussion, they have to deal in real facts.

FWIW, TO did almost the identical thing the RS did.

• We had almost identical scoring teams.
• They lost Bichette and we lost Bregman.
• They made their biggest acquisition a #2 SP, and we made our biggest acquisition a #2 SP.
• They added Ponce to the rotation and we added Gray.
• They added Okamoto to the IF and we added Durbin.

We're running in lock step, but Fred wants to pretend like TO did great and we didn't.  Maybe it is my accounting background, but I expect a little analyses.

Actually, they lost Bichette and added Okamoto: we lost Bregman & Lowe and added Contreras & Durbin. (We also lost Ref and gained IKF.)

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The last time Cole was the ace of the Yanks was the year Crawford was our ace. Guess who returns to the Sox, this year?

Okay, seriously, yes, Cole is a big addition to a formidable returning team, but he starts the year on the IL, along with Rodon & Schmidt. We all have seen how that works out for countless Sox SP'er beginning the year on the IL with promises of returning to form during the season, but I'm not sure why you are able to find an ounce of optimism in the dark confines of your mind for a Yankee. So be it. I do think the Yanks look better, assuming equal health to both teams. I guess my thought is that the younger team should likely have less injuries, and we no longer have Gio, Hendriks, Houck and others as part of our 2026 plans.

38 Goldschmidt

36 Stanton, Hill

35 Cole & Cruz

34 Yarbrough

33 Judge & Rodon

32 Fried

31 Bednar & McMahon

30 Bellinger, Bird

The Yanks have 4 key players at 33 or older (same as the Sox, but Cole Judge and Rodon might be their top 3 key players.) They have 4 key players between 30-33, as the Sox have one. They have a total of 8 key players at 30 or older to the Sox 5. See below.

Most of their key players are on this list. Now look at the Sox over 30 players:

37 Chapman

36 Gray

33 Contreras & Story

32 Yoshida

31 Weissert

30 Suarez, IKF, Kelly

Sox: 4 key players at 33+ and 1 at 30-32. (5 total)

Age is not the only factor involved in projecting injury, but it is a huge factor in projecting decline- sometimes sharp declines.

Watch and weep.

Cole is returning from his second TJ.  What’s the track record for pitchers returning after TJ #2 just stepping in to pitch right where they left off?

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Cole is returning from his second TJ.  What’s the track record for pitchers returning after TJ #2 just stepping in to pitch right where they left off?

I can just imagine Fred's outlook, if he was a Sox pitcher coming back from that.

We also have Crawford, Sandoval, who missed all of 2025, and others like Slaten, Abreu & others who missed lesser amounts of time in '25.

Of course, the Yanks had a lot of other injuries in 2025, as they almost always do.

Sandoval & Crawford were pretty damn good back in 2023, too, and they aren't even projected to make our rotation. Sure, they aren't Cole, but as 5-6 SP'ers their impact might be greater than his, especially, if Cole doesn't return until early June and struggles to regain even 75% of his form. Crawford + Sandoval might have 70-80 IP combined by early June.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The NYY got ...a healthy Judge back. 

The guy had 679 PAs and his second best OPS in his career in 2025. His last two seasons saw him reach his top 2 career seasons in PAs. You sound like you expect a better season and more PAs from the soon to be 34 year old big guy.

Again, why so much optimism over non Sox players?

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

 The Orioles had an off year after winning 91 games in 2024 and they got a prime batter (who we should have signed) in Alonso. I expect they will win around 92 games, edging us out for third place.

The O's had "an off year" for a reason. Their management team has been 10X worse than the one you say should be fired. They failed to add anybody of note, before 2025 and let Burnes , Santander and others go. It's not like they lost due to bad luck and excessive injuries.

Yes, Henderson dropped 100 points in OPS, but why are so sure the 2024 Gunnar was the real deal? The O's got big years from Laureano and O'Hearn, as well as a pretty good season from Dylan Beaver & Westburg. You expect these guys and Alonso and other replacements to gain 22 games from 2025?

Trevor Rogers did a good job replacing Burnes and Kremer did about the same as 2024. They swapped out Grayson Rodrigues for the 80 year old Bassitt and added a closer (Helsley) who had an off season in '25, and again, you suddenly find enormous optimism for these guys.

Oh, and BTW, Westburg is out until at least May with a UCL tear, and Jackson Holliday will start the year on the IL with a hamate bone fracture. Such an lovely and lofty outlook based on murky waters.

[FredLynn]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The guy had 679 PAs and his second best OPS in his career in 2025. His last two seasons saw him reach his top 2 career seasons in PAs. You sound like you expect a better season and more PAs from the soon to be 34 year old big guy.

Again, why so much optimism over non Sox players?

Judge is the MVP for a reason. There isn’t a more menacing hitter in baseball today. And I know Cole is already throwing bullpen sessions and I think I read he hit 96 on the gun already. The Yankmees were better than us last year and they are getting their ace back. We added a single useful player this offseason and a bunch of mediocre ones. That addition gives us an extra win or two. The good news is that I think we are better than the Rays. How’s that for optimism?

[FredLynn]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The O's had "an off year" for a reason. Their management team has been 10X worse than the one you say should be fired. They failed to add anybody of note, before 2025 and let Burnes , Santander and others go. It's not like they lost due to bad luck and excessive injuries.

Yes, Henderson dropped 100 points in OPS, but why are so sure the 2024 Gunnar was the real deal? The O's got big years from Laureano and O'Hearn, as well as a pretty good season from Dylan Beaver & Westburg. You expect these guys and Alonso and other replacements to gain 22 games from 2025?

Trevor Rogers did a good job replacing Burnes and Kremer did about the same as 2024. They swapped out Grayson Rodrigues for the 80 year old Bassitt and added a closer (Helsley) who had an off season in '25, and again, you suddenly find enormous optimism for these guys.

Oh, and BTW, Westburg is out until at least May with a UCL tear, and Jackson Holliday will start the year on the IL with a hamate bone fracture. Such a lovely and lofty outlook based on murky waters.

 I am not overly optimistic for the O’s chances to make the playoffs. Just more optimistic about them than I am about our anemic lineup.

[alsoason]

Looking into my crystal ball and it says the 2026 Boston Red Sox will win 96 or 97 games. It also said enjoy the season because greed is going to cancel the 2027 season.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Judge is the MVP for a reason. There isn’t a more menacing hitter in baseball today. And I know Cole is already throwing bullpen sessions and I think I read he hit 96 on the gun already. The Yankmees were better than us last year and they are getting their ace back. We added a single useful player this offseason and a bunch of mediocre ones. That addition gives us an extra win or two. The good news is that I think we are better than the Rays. How’s that for optimism?

But you apparently had no idea Judge had started 310 out of 324 games over the past two seasons, which is my point - you’re evaluating the Red Sox vs what you wanted them to do and not even looking at other teams, just giving them credit.

1. Toronto is credited for signing Cease and completely unknown Okamoto, but no mention of losing Bichette and Bassett

2. Baltimore is credited and expected to revert to the 91-71 team’s from 2024, despite no longer having Corbin Burnes (15-5) and Grayson Rodriguez (13-4), who accounted for 1/3 of that win total. 
 

3.  And now the Yankees “get Aaron Judge back” despite that he never left.  I guess you were referring to those 4 games he sat out?

[notin]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

 I am not overly optimistic for the O’s chances to make the playoffs. Just more optimistic about them than I am about our anemic lineup.

Dude, their lineup is much worse.  Especially with the early injuries to Westburg and Holliday.  
 

Although to be fair to the Orioles, they are getting pretty used to playing without Westburg.  But they might be relying too much on Roman Anthony’s former high school teammate Coby Mayo to pick up the slack.

[notin]

42 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

 I am not overly optimistic for the O’s chances to make the playoffs. Just more optimistic about them than I am about our anemic lineup.

The thing is, today the Sox have a better team than Baltimore and Tampa.  Thats actually difficult to debate against.

Are the Sox ss good as Toronto and NY?  On paper, they are hetting Yankees should be the tops in this division (until I factor in Bret Boone aka The Equaloser), and Toronto and Boston are roughly equal or at least close.  But as a 162 game season wears on, plenty can change.  And a lot of it will…

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, notin said:

But you apparently had no idea Judge had started 310 out of 324 games over the past two seasons, which is my point - you’re evaluating the Red Sox vs what you wanted them to do and not even looking at other teams, just giving them credit.

1. Toronto is credited for signing Cease and completely unknown Okamoto, but no mention of losing Bichette and Bassett

2. Baltimore is credited and expected to revert to the 91-71 team’s from 2024, despite no longer having Corbin Burnes (15-5) and Grayson Rodriguez (13-4), who accounted for 1/3 of that win total. 
 

3.  And now the Yankees “get Aaron Judge back” despite that he never left.  I guess you were referring to those 4 games he sat out?

At the end of the season, after all the games are played and the playoffs begin without us, you will see that I was right all along.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

At the end of the season, after all the games are played and the playoffs begin without us, you will see that I was right all along.

You've made zero convincing arguments at why other teams are or got better.

[FredLynn]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You've made zero convincing arguments at why other teams are or got better.

It was never my intention to try to convince anyone of anything. Just making my personal predictions now that Breslow has again failed to do his job and create a contender for a ring.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Again, why so much optimism over non Sox players?

It's always the same thing.

[notin]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

At the end of the season, after all the games are played and the playoffs begin without us, you will see that I was right all along.

There are plenty of scenarios where the Sox miss the postseason; none of them are the one you’re predicting..

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

There are plenty of scenarios where the Sox miss the postseason; none of them are the one you’re predicting..

That's what gets me. Just admit you flubbed and come u with a more believable scenario.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Cole is returning from his second TJ.  What’s the track record for pitchers returning after TJ #2 just stepping in to pitch right where they left off?

I think Cole even coming back as a #3 for half a season is an improvement. I don't see the Yanks missing the postseason, but I'm not really counting on Cole being the ace of the staff going forward. Really depends on Judge and Fried. With expanded playoffs, they are almost assuredly going to be in the playoffs every year.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

The thing is, today the Sox have a better team than Baltimore and Tampa.  Thats actually difficult to debate against.

Are the Sox ss good as Toronto and NY?  On paper, they are hetting Yankees should be the tops in this division (until I factor in Bret Boone aka The Equaloser), and Toronto and Boston are roughly equal or at least close.  But as a 162 game season wears on, plenty can change.  And a lot of it will…

The O's offense could put up a lot of runs this year with Ward, Gunnar, Alonso, Rutschman, Cowser and a step forward from Mayo or Basallo. The pitching should be decent if unspectacular with Rogers, Bassitt, Baz, Eflin and Bradish. They'll be better than last year. The question is by how much. 

I think O's get better and Jays get worse. Yanks really depend on the health of Judge and Fried. 

[drewski6]

On 2/21/2026 at 11:55 AM, moonslav59 said:

Bregman was not "the big bat" we needed. (Nor was Bichette.)

Duran might be, though.  Could have another one (dangerous bat), but for all the ship out Duran trades that didnt happen, Im starting to think he might be the saving acquisition. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Duran might be, though.  Could have another one (dangerous bat), but for all the ship out Duran trades that didnt happen, Im starting to think he might be the saving acquisition. 

Always trust the "his bat looks better than ever" stories in ST. 😎

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Always trust the "his bat looks better than ever" stories in ST. 😎

Well like the same goes

Fool me 146 times with the spring training puff pieces, shame on me 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well like the same goes

Fool me 146 times with the spring training puff pieces, shame on me 

If they didn't acquire Gray or Suarez, some people would be talking themselves into Bello's new changeup. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Bregman was not "the big bat" we needed. (Nor was Bichette.)" "Duran might be, though."

ME: Bregman and Duran were not the bats we needed to lose, either.

The more I mull -- even if this Boston offense is statistically average or above average in the AL, scoring runs against good pitchers is still going to be as painful as ever.

We assume our pitching will keep us in most games, so the key to the season will be for Cora to find and employ his best defense as much as possible... even if that sacrifices some offense.

Therefore, I'm choosing the under for the 87.5 Ws -- BUT another playoff spot in somebody else's stadium for three Wild Card games. Some weaker all-around teams like KC and Texas may have more wins than the Sox, not because they're better, but only since the mighty AL East contenders all have to play each other 13 times.