Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[notin]

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I don't see this team as much better than last year's team-maybe by a couple of wins or so, but certainly not a factor for a championship. We could have been there if Henry wasn't such a cheap SOB.

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

 

A couple more wins and they’re a 91 win team.  Have we reached the point where we are complaining about a 91 win team?

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... Cora loves Anthony leadoff and has already said Contreras will bat clean-up.

Does that order strike fear in the hearts of any pitcher with a sweeper? ...

While I agree that we needed to get a bigger bat than Contreras, Willson is pretty good.

We don't have a top 30 SLG% guy from 2024-2025 (900+ PAs). That might be a first for the Sox in a long time. We do, however have 2 in the top 46.

32 Duran .468

46 Contreras .455

(Abreu would have finished 34th, had he gotten 36 more PAs to qualify, and Anthony's small sample size places him around 36th.)

It looks like we could have 4 players in the top 50, but still nobody in the top 30. Will that be good enough?

Damned if I know!

I think we'll see Duran 3rd (v R) and Story 3rd (v L.) Contreras bats 4th. Anthony leadoff, so who fills the top modern day slot (#2)? Story with an OBP around .300 vs L? Durbin? Abreu v R?

If Duran and Abreu didn't have such bad splits, we could have both in the top 4 with Story hitting 5th.

Maybe this...

1. L Anthony

2. L Abreu/ R Story (half the time)

3. L Duran/R Story (half the time)

4. R Contreras

5. L Duran or Abreu (see the 2-3 slots)

6. R Narvaez

7. R Durbin

8. L Mayer (R Romy/KC?)

9. R Rafaela 

or do we just bite the bullet and bat Story 2nd all the time? This fits Cora's lefty-righty thingy, and has a good power bat up 5th every game:

1. L Anthony

2. R Story

3. L Duran (maybe bats 6th v L?)

4. R Contreras

5. L Abreu

6. R Durbin (maybe bat him 3rd v L?)

7. R Narvaez

8. L Mayer/ R Romy or KC

9. R Rafaela

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How about Bregman, Harrison, Hamilton, Drohan and Rafael Devers (whose money signed Suarez) for Suarez, Durbin, Monaseterio, Seigler and a pick.

If you are adding both Bregman and Devers to the top side, then you have to Gray & Contreras (along with the names mentioned) to the bottom side.  Basically, we traded:

Bregman & Devers

for

Gray, Contreras, Suarez, Durbin, +++

[FredLynn]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

A couple more wins and they’re a 91 win team.  Have we reached the point where we are complaining about a 91 win team?

We have reached the point where we are entitled to complain about not being a factor in the discussion about championship contenders.

[notin]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

We have reached the point where we are entitled to complain about not being a factor in the discussion about championship contenders.

91 wins a absolutely puts the Sox in that conversation…

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

91 wins a absolutely puts the Sox in that conversation…

Some AL team might put it all together and win 95+ game, but none did it 2025. The two 94 wins teams arguably did nothing to improve over the winter.

I think what the naysayers are missing is looking as hard at the other top AL contenders as they are at the Sox roster and winter changes.

94 wins TOR- I think they stayed the same over the winter- at best.

94 wins NYY- same as TOR.

90 SEA- did they get better?

89 BOS- most think we got marginally better.

87 DET- they look like they got better.

87 HOU- did nothing to get better.

82 KCR & 81 TEX- same

The team that improved the most was BAL who had 75 wins. Only 3 NL teams were worse, last year.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If you are adding both Bregman and Devers to the top side, then you have to Gray & Contreras (along with the names mentioned) to the bottom side.  Basically, we traded:

Bregman & Devers

for

Gray, Contreras, Suarez, Durbin, +++

For those with faith in this offense, one could argue Bregman replaced Devers (literally did at 3B), and Contreras replaced Bregman.

And we can say Campbell, Mayer and Anthony replaced their younger selves with wisdom.

Still unaccounted for is the loss of Refsnyder, the greatest Red Sox southpaw masher in the history of this decade. And if Romy doesn't come back as good as ever from injury, we've got issues.

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some AL team might put it all together and win 95+ game, but none did it 2025. The two 94 wins teams arguably did nothing to improve over the winter.

I think what the naysayers are missing is looking as hard at the other top AL contenders as they are at the Sox roster and winter changes.

94 wins TOR- I think they stayed the same over the winter- at best.

94 wins NYY- same as TOR.

90 SEA- did they get better?

89 BOS- most think we got marginally better.

87 DET- they look like they got better.

87 HOU- did nothing to get better.

82 KCR & 81 TEX- same

The team that improved the most was BAL who had 75 wins. Only 3 NL teams were worse, last year.

 

Why do Sox fans consider Texas and KC and Baltimore threats but not Cleveland?

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Why do Sox fans consider Texas and KC and Baltimore threats but not Cleveland?

Ooops. I missed them.

88 wins last year.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, notin said:

91 wins a absolutely puts the Sox in that conversation…

Not with this roster.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Not with this roster.

Didn't you say 88 wins, at one point?

91 is out of the question?

[FredLynn]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Didn't you say 88 wins, at one point?

91 is out of the question?

100 isn’t “out of the question”-nor is 70.  At this point all these predictions are just opinions. Mine is a game or two better than last year, no playoffs -though I may be overly optimistic- or if we do get in another quick exit.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

100 isn’t “out of the question”-nor is 70.  At this point all these predictions are just opinions. Mine is a game or two better than last year, no playoffs -though I may be overly optimistic- or if we do get in another quick exit.

This goes wildly against your "at best" statement we contested a week ago.

[FredLynn]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This goes wildly against your "at best" statement we contested a week ago.

It actually has nothing to do with the "at best" comment, which had to do with our final position in the standings I believe. Fourth. At best.

[notin]

17 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Not with this roster.

Ridiculous.  Just because they didn’t spend what you wanted them to doesn't make turn non-competitive…

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

It actually has nothing to do with the "at best" comment, which had to do with our final position in the standings I believe. Fourth. At best.

100 wins is not out of the question has no relation to our final at best position in the standings?

Are you saying if we win 100, the Jays, Yanks and O's all win 101 or more?

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

100 wins is not out of the question has no relation to our final at best position in the standings?

Are you saying if we win 100, the Jays, Yanks and O's all win 101 or more?

I am saying that no win total that does not exceed the total number of games played is "out of the question". However I think we are discussing what is REASONABLE, and I think around 90 wins or so is reasonable, good for fourth place since three teams in the ALE are better than us.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I am saying that no win total that does not exceed the total number of games played is "out of the question". However I think we are discussing what is REASONABLE, and I think around 90 wins or so is reasonable, good for fourth place since three teams in the ALE are better than us.

90 wins and 4th place, FYI, is actually NOT reasonable.  The AL East isn’t going to be that dominant and those teams do all play each other.  Also your faith in Baltimore is solely based on getting Pete Alonso, right?  And not on scoring 110 runs fewer than Boston last year and already losing two starting infielders?

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

90 wins and 4th place, FYI, is actually NOT reasonable.  The AL East isn’t going to be that dominant and those teams do all play each other.  Also your faith in Baltimore is solely based on getting Pete Alonso, right?  And not on scoring 110 runs fewer than Boston last year and already losing two starting infielders?

I think its clear that Toronto and NY have better rosters than we do. It will be close between the O's and the Flops. I predict that the O's will win 91 games to edge out the Flops. The deciding factor will be that we cannot score enough runs to win more than 90 games.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I am saying that no win total that does not exceed the total number of games played is "out of the question". However I think we are discussing what is REASONABLE, and I think around 90 wins or so is reasonable, good for fourth place since three teams in the ALE are better than us.

If we hit a reasonable 90 wins, then "at best 4th place" is nearly impossible.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

100 isn’t “out of the question”-nor is 70.  At this point all these predictions are just opinions. Mine is a game or two better than last year, no playoffs -though I may be overly optimistic- or if we do get in another quick exit.

With all due respect to your man Bobby Valentine, we haven't had a non-Valentine 70-win season in over 60 years.

[moonslav59]

70 wins would take near season-long injuries to 5 or 6 of our best 8-9 players.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

I am saying that no win total that does not exceed the total number of games played is "out of the question".

After much consideration, you've reached the conclusion that we will win between -0- and 162?

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

After much consideration, you've reached the conclusion that we will win between -0- and 162?

Depends. If we manage to make the playoffs we might win a couple more.

[FredLynn]

59 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

With all due respect to your man Bobby Valentine, we haven't had a non-Valentine 70-win season in over 60 years.

My definition of "out of the question" means mathmatically impossible. We won't win just 70. Nor will we win 95. I like my prediction, right around 90, 88-90 sounds about right.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

My definition of "out of the question" means mathmatically impossible. We won't win just 70. Nor will we win 95. I like my prediction, right around 90, 88-90 sounds about right.

And somehow, that's 4th place.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

And somehow, that's 4th place.

Thats my opinion and I am sticking with it. Hopefully I am wrong and we finish in first place. 

Watch and weep!

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Thats my opinion and I am sticking with it. Hopefully I am wrong and we finish in first place. 

Watch and weep!

Pythagorean 2025 wins:

97 NYY

92 BOS (You admit they got slightly better.)

88 TOR

70 BAL

(88 SEA & DET, 83 HOU, 82 CLE)

What's your take on what other teams projections are and why so many improve by enough to overtake or stay ahead of the Sox.

We know what you think of the Red Flops, but why are other teams better? (Be specific.)

[FredLynn]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Pythagorean 2025 wins:

97 NYY

92 BOS (You admit they got slightly better.)

88 TOR

70 BAL

(88 SEA & DET, 83 HOU, 82 CLE)

What's your take on what other teams projections are and why so many improve by enough to overtake or stay ahead of the Sox.

We know what you think of the Red Flops, but why are other teams better? (Be specific.)

I don't assign these hypothetical predictions with any more weight than the guesses we all are making here. The NYY have their ace back. The Jays are better because they greatly improved after signing Cease and Okomoto. They won 94 games last year and are better this year. The NYY got their ace and a healthy Judge back. The Orioles had an off year after winning 91 games in 2024 and they got a prime batter (who we should have signed) in Alonso. I expect they will win around 92 games, edging us out for third place.

[JoeBrady]

48 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

My definition of "out of the question" means mathmatically impossible.

I question the point of arguing what is or is not possible, but have at it.  FWIW, I agree that we won't win less than -0-.