Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fair point.  But the point Im trying to make is the reason why when we acquired Contreras , we considered him a first baseman.  Why he didnt catch last year.  

He's not a good catcher and never was. He's a good fielding first baseman. 

[mvp 78]

Plans change. Contreras will stay at 1b. 

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

Yes because we still have more than enough ammunition to go get someone when we define what/where we need them, and other teams are more ready to give up or fill their glaring hole.  In season pick ups and/ or the ammunition to get them is part of our current status. 

No doubt we will discover additional needs near the TD-if we are a legitimate contender for a playoff spot. Those needs can be addressed at that time. The issue is that right now there is a glaring need that wasn’t filled. Why do you think that is? The players to fill that need were available.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fair point.  But the point Im trying to make is the reason why when we acquired Contreras , we considered him a first baseman.  Why he didnt catch last year.  My only point is this is a lot because of Contreras age.  There are other reasons too.  But a 28 yr old Contreras is catching somewhere in MLB, and doing it at an all start level.  This started with people calling me crazy for saying Contreras has aged significantly.  You didnt disagree, you implied that sure Contreras is further aged than people 3 yrs younger that never had to catch, sure - but his positional fit and ST contract make you thankful we got him over 5 yrs of Alonoso. A comment I didnt see an issue with.

Look, if everyone is telling me (and I dont mean to group all of your positions together) but if people are telling me that Im wrong that Contreras has aged too much to catch.....This is great news.  If we're in a game 7, I can see Narvaez being the odd man out.  Not saying its likely or will happen because I dont know who will be healthy at that point in time, but I think versatility and depth are good and if Contreras can still catch thats great news. 

I do believe that if he can catch, he should (at least sometimes)

I think I read somewhere that STL was thinking he might catch a few games in 2025, before they traded him. That might have been said to improve trade value, but at worst, he can be an emergency catcher.

When you said "shows signs of aging," I took that as showing a downward trend. While 2025 was lower than 2024, I guess you could say yes, he is, but it was one of his top 3 career years, so some context is needed.

I think not catching and his move to Fenway is going to lead to a year as good as or better than Breggie's 2026 season.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think I read somewhere that STL was thinking he might catch a few games in 2025, before they traded him. That might have been said to improve trade value, but at worst, he can be an emergency catcher.

When you said "shows signs of aging," I took that as showing a downward trend. While 2025 was lower than 2024, I guess you could say yes, he is, but it was one of his top 3 career years, so some context is needed.

I think not catching and his move to Fenway is going to lead to a year as good as or better than Breggie's 2026 season.

I did make the mistake at looking at OPS vs OPS+. Could be that Contreras decline is OPS was due to the league taking another step towards becoming a pitcher's era and not him being another year older.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

No doubt we will discover additional needs near the TD-if we are a legitimate contender for a playoff spot. Those needs can be addressed at that time. The issue is that right now there is a glaring need that wasn’t filled. Why do you think that is? The players to fill that need were available.

Bullpen. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I did make the mistake at looking at OPS vs OPS+. Could be that Contreras decline is OPS was due to the league taking another step towards becoming a pitcher's era and not him being another year older.

In '24, he had his highest OPS since 2019. Did you expect it to increase again or go down? C'mon man...

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think I read somewhere that STL was thinking he might catch a few games in 2025, before they traded him. That might have been said to improve trade value, but at worst, he can be an emergency catcher.

When you said "shows signs of aging," I took that as showing a downward trend. While 2025 was lower than 2024, I guess you could say yes, he is, but it was one of his top 3 career years, so some context is needed.

I think not catching and his move to Fenway is going to lead to a year as good as or better than Breggie's 2026 season.

Hard to compare because WAR gives Bregman too much of a positional edge.  Offensively, I can see it.  I can see Contreras having more RBIs or more offensive WAR.  When I said that Contreras has aged more than Bregman that was a lot because Bregman is still playing 3b and is 2 yrs younger.

If the order of operations were different.  Lets say we signed Ranger first, then failed to ink Bregman, then traded for Contreras (so flip the dates of the contreras and suarez acquisition) then people would be saying pivot even more than they are saying it now.  Its a pivot to sign Ranger on the heels but it would be inarguably a pivot if it was corner infielder/bat acquisition on teh heels of Bregman signing with the cubs.

I have a hard time saying great pivot to Ranger.  I think we had the best rotation in baseball before we signed Ranger.  I would have no issue saying great pivot to Contreras (if you flipped the dates of the contreras and ranger acquisitions).

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In '24, he had his highest OPS since 2019. Did you expect it to increase again or go down? C'mon man...

I expected it to drop to the average of his '22,'23'24 seasons, maybe a tick under due to his age.  It dropped more.  It also seemed like the baseball universe was no longer considering him a catcher.  I dont think its cray to say that contreras has aged significantly.  You aint getting him for that package, with the cards eating money, if hes prime Contreras.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Hard to compare because WAR gives Bregman too much of a positional edge.  Offensively, I can see it.  I can see Contreras having more RBIs or more offensive WAR.  When I said that Contreras has aged more than Bregman that was a lot because Bregman is still playing 3b and is 2 yrs younger.
 

I agree. Bregman will likely outWAR Willson,

I was thinking OPS+.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Like how last year he was screaming about how we were not going to make the playoffs when we were already in. 

It's the true believer syndrome.  Even reality won't penetrate.  Most people can understand the minutiae of a HR/OBP discussion, or a #2 v a cleanup hitter.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In '24, he had his highest OPS since 2019. Did you expect it to increase again or go down? C'mon man...

The guy has aged very well. That was my point and response to "showing signs of aging." I didn't take that to mean gray hair.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. Bregman will likely outWAR Willson,

I was thinking OPS+.

Likely? Hard to say. Bregman could be more likely to miss half the season than Contreras. 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The guy has aged very well. That was my point and response to "showing signs of aging." I didn't take that to mean gray hair.

My uncle at 73 is still working and has a new girlfriend, and travels , and works out and still looks great.

My father was in the dementia nursing home at 73.

When I meant that Contreras has aged, I did not mean relatively. He inarguably has aged very well.  Hes good value at 17m, which is why we had to give up value to trade for that contract (as opposed to it being salary dumped to us). Thats very rare for a 34 yr old to have surpluss value on a multi-year at 17.5 AAV.  More power to him, good for him.

Really, all I meant was that hes 34 and no longer playing the position he played in his prime.  And I may have over-atrributed the positional switch to age.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I expected it to drop to the average of his '22,'23'24 seasons, maybe a tick under due to his age.  It dropped more.  It also seemed like the baseball universe was no longer considering him a catcher.  I dont think its cray to say that contreras has aged significantly.  You aint getting him for that package, with the cards eating money, if hes prime Contreras.

I think he'll be a 3 WAR player with 20+ HR this season. His OPS will go back to around 825ish. 

[drewski6]

I think the Red Sox are at or near the top of the tier 2 MLB teams. WIthout Contreras, we may lose an entire tier and be more comparable to the tier 3 teams (Rangers, Royals, Astros Reds)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Likely? Hard to say. Bregman could be more likely to miss half the season than Contreras. 

More likely they are close to tie in OPS+. I'd give the edge to Willson to be higher.

I'd also give the edge to Willson for better health, despite the age difference.

I worry about Bregman's bat. He looked god-awful to start 2024, and people down here were saying it's good his years of control were coming to and end.

134 OPS+ in '22 (after two down years)

122 in 2023

116 in 2024

In 2024, he was at .535 on May 12th. He was under .590 on May 27th (game 51 of his season) He got hot for a week, then hit about .700 for the rest of June.

From game 80 to 145 in 2024, he hit .844. He began the 2025 season like a career year, but then the injury and slowdown occurred. I just did not have a ton of confidence in his bat, going forward.

Great teammate. Great clubhouse guy and mentor. Excellent defensive 3Bman.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he'll be a 3 WAR player with 20+ HR this season. His OPS will go back to around 825ish. 

And if that comes to fruition and Casas, Duran, Abreu all have similar OPS and all are healthy and its game 7 of ALCS, Contreras might catch for a single game.  

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My uncle at 73 is still working and has a new girlfriend, and travels , and works out and still looks great.

My father was in the dementia nursing home at 73.

When I meant that Contreras has aged, I did not mean relatively. He inarguably has aged very well.  Hes good value at 17m, which is why we had to give up value to trade for that contract (as opposed to it being salary dumped to us). Thats very rare for a 34 yr old to have surpluss value on a multi-year at 17.5 AAV.  More power to him, good for him.

Really, all I meant was that hes 34 and no longer playing the position he played in his prime.  And I may have over-atrributed the positional switch to age.

Okay. I get your point. The guy switched positions and stayed in MLB, because his bat seemed to be getting better- not worse, and we got him for offense, and certainly not to catch, so I didn't see the connection.

He might add a little value as our emergency catcher, but I'd rather he not even workout as a catcher, anymore. Focus on hitting and playing a decent 1B.

BTW, my Dad passed away last fall at the age of 98. My mom passed away a few months earlier at 88. My Dad was physically active up to a week before he passed. His mind was as sharp as ever until 3 days before. I was very lucky.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And if that comes to fruition and Casas, Duran, Abreu all have similar OPS and all are healthy and its game 7 of ALCS, Contreras might catch for a single game.  

He'd have to have caught some during the season, which may not happen.

Someone should ask Cora if there is a chance Willson catches a few games.

[drewski6]

One thing about Bregman that gets overlooked but applies to Contreras also is that they are both bilingual.  I think bilingual guys can really help a clubhouse/chemistry

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And if that comes to fruition and Casas, Duran, Abreu all have similar OPS and all are healthy and its game 7 of ALCS, Contreras might catch for a single game.  

Nope. Duran, the worst of the 4 OFers, will either be DH'ing or on the bench. You don't throw Contreras to C if he hasn't worked with the pitchers all year. Would be crazy to do in the ALCS. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I trust you realize that our 2025 MVP's name ends with a "shea" sound?

My mom likes his name because she's always kept an afghan folded over the top of the couch.

Then again, isn't that why Old Red calls him Cro Magnum Man?

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

One thing about Bregman that gets overlooked but applies to Contreras also is that they are both bilingual.  I think bilingual guys can really help a clubhouse/chemistry

I think Contreras will help fill the "clubhouse" void left by Bregman's departure. Sonny Gray and Suarez might, too.

While much of the roster turnover was on the fringes, except for Bregman and Gio, there has been a lot of departures.

Before the 2025 season even ended, we lost Devers, Newcomb, Buehler, DMay, Burdi, Sabol, and several to injuries.

After the season, we lost...

Bregman & Gio

Dobbins & Fitts

Wilson & Matz

Lowe & Refsnyder

Bernardino, Hicks & Murphy

Jh Garcia, ICampbell, Criswell &Sandlin

Perales, Drohan, Clarke, Guerrero, Mata & others.

Houck may not pitch for the whole season. That's over 14 players who saw MLB action in 2025.

 

 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

It doesn’t matter as much though with the Con Man who’s on a shorter contract.

That's my figuring.  He was good in 2025, so I expect him to be good in 2026.  So we have one year at risk.  

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Nope. Duran, the worst of the 4 OFers, will either be DH'ing or on the bench. You don't throw Contreras to C if he hasn't worked with the pitchers all year. Would be crazy to do in the ALCS. 

Duran is the worst of the four OF but Rafaela-unless things have changed for him-is much worse with a bat in his hands. We actually have five OF if you want to stick Masa in LF occasionally. I suspect that Duran will get at least 20% of the OF starts since Breslow didn’t do his job and trade one of them for a good IF.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Really, all I meant was that hes 34 and no longer playing the position he played in his prime.

FWIW, all three guys will decline.  It's more a matter of how much and how quick.  One can defend or critique either side and sound reasonable.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's my figuring.  He was good in 2025, so I expect him to be good in 2026.  So we have one year at risk.  

Contreras has 2 years plus an option.

[JoeBrady]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Contreras has 2 years plus an option.

One good year+ one year at risk.  I ignored the team option because it had a decent-sized buy-out, tough I normally give the team some credit on that. 

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

One good year+ one year at risk.  I ignored the team option because it had a decent-sized buy-out, tough I normally give the team some credit on that. 

The Cards are paying $4M this year and next.