Predicting LT payroll

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

“He’s been in Fort Myers the whole time after the season,” Cora said. “That’s great for a young guy to know what he needs to do to compete. He’s done that. Hopefully we can get him heathy.”

 

 

As for a timetable, Cora didn’t give one.

 

 

“There’s no timetable right now,” he said. “We just gotta get him right, and hopefully he can contribute next year.”

so my issue here is that casas has been at fort myers this whole time, which means he has been with the team (or at least the offseason version of the team) , so to me this makes the lack of a meaningful update bad.

Every day I hear about Tatum. I havent really heard one thing about Casas, and if he was swinging a bat, lifting weights, jogging, we would hear. The fact that there is still no timetable....

Anything you get out of casas is gravy at this point.

[UtahSox]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I thought you liked top 50 hitters? 

You know the hardest part about getting a Top 50 hitter? ‘there are only 50 of those SOB’s out there
 

[Kimmi]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If I thought he could be '23 Casas going forward, I wouldn't be penciling in anyone else. 

Well then, pencil him in!

[Kimmi]

42 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

“He’s been in Fort Myers the whole time after the season,” Cora said. “That’s great for a young guy to know what he needs to do to compete. He’s done that. Hopefully we can get him heathy.”

 

 

As for a timetable, Cora didn’t give one.

 

 

“There’s no timetable right now,” he said. “We just gotta get him right, and hopefully he can contribute next year.”

Whether he'll be ready for Opening Day or not is a valid concern.  If the Red Sox have doubts that he'll be ready, then they need to find someone to fill that role.  

I do really like knowing that Casas has been in Ft. Myers doing what he's supposed to be doing to get healthy and ready.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

I’d take it….
 

Although my absolute would be

1- resign AB2

2- trade Mayer/Bello/Harrison for Marte

3- trade Casas/Sandoval for Contreras

4- Early/Tolle + Duran/Abreu for SP2. 

i think you just traded away 3/5 of our starting pitching.

[UtahSox]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i think you just traded away 3/5 of our starting pitching.

1- Crochet

2- TBD (Ragans or Peralta)

3- Gray

4- Oviedo

5- Crawford/Dobbins/ Tolle or Early. 

thins us out for sure….

 

[UtahSox]

25 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i think you just traded away 3/5 of our starting pitching.

Let’s be honest this ain’t happening. I have zero faith in Breslow landing this plane that is 2026 offseason.
 

 My honest to god prediction:

1- sign Geno Suarez to a 2/40m club&Player option yr 2 he will bat .220 w/ 28HR’s 150+ strikeouts

2- sign Rhys Hoskins 2/20m Club &Player option year 2 he will be about the same as Nathaniel Lowe was last year. 

3- we will trade Duran + Harrison for Ragans

Breslow will tell us how improved we are “blah blah blah we accomplished everything we needed to in offseason” 

1. R Anthony LF

2. T Story SS

3. G Suarez 3b

4. Abreu RF

5. R Hoskins 1b platoon w/ Casas once healthy

6. R Gonzalez 2b

7. M Mayer 3b

8. C Rafaela CF

9. C Narvaez C

 

1. Crochet

2. Peralta/ Ragans

3. Gray

4. Bello

5. Oviedo

6. Crawford/ Tolle/ Early/ Dobbins

 

If the stars align we win 90 games, some injuries we win 85, anything like last year and we win 78 games. 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

1- Crochet

2- TBD (Ragans or Peralta)

3- Gray

4- Oviedo

5- Crawford/Dobbins/ Tolle or Early. 

thins us out for sure….

 

But the depth chart includes a lot of really strong D1 All-Star arms that Breslow stockpiled last summer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Let’s be honest this ain’t happening. I have zero faith in Breslow landing this plane that is 2026 offseason.
 

 My honest to god prediction:

1- sign Geno Suarez to a 2/40m club&Player option yr 2 he will bat .220 w/ 28HR’s 150+ strikeouts

2- sign Rhys Hoskins 2/20m Club &Player option year 2 he will be about the same as Nathaniel Lowe was last year. 

3- we will trade Duran + Harrison for Ragans

tell us how improved we are “blah blah blah we accomplished everything we needed to in offseason” 

1. R Anthony LF

2. T Story SS

3. G Suarez 3b

4. Abreu RF

5. R Hoskins 1b platoon w/ Casas once healthy

6. R Gonzalez 2b

7. M Mayer 3b

8. C Rafaela CF

9. C Narvaez C

Bugs Bunny just put on a Boston batting helmet and tried to imitate that order, but swung and missed so many times he passed out cold from vertigo.

[UtahSox]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bugs Bunny just put on a Boston batting helmet and tried to imitate that order, but swung and missed so many times he passed out cold from vertigo.

Insane amount of swing and miss in that lineup. Good thing we didn’t strike out a lot last year w RISP. This lineup might set world records. 

[moonslav59]

If we trade Bello, we'd have a new hole. 

I'd still like us to get a #2 SP'er, so trading Bello would mean we'd still need a #2 and then a #3-4 type. Maybe one top #2 would be enough.

[Hitch]

19 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

But who are you going to add? if that's your budget you're still not adding Bregman and you're down two starting middle infielders if you trade Mayer away.  So what is your infield?  Okamoto/Story/Marte/Casas? are is that any better or less riskier than Mayer/Story/Bichette/Casas or Bregman/Story/Mayer/Casas?

I'd also argue that this would be the exact opposite of "in a vaccum" because in a vaccum I'm willing to make decisions sometimes that aren't winning moves in the aggregate E.G. lets bunt or steal a base.  In a vacuum I'd be willing to trade away youth for proven veteran talent.....in a vaccum.

Well I don't have a crystal ball, so hard to know, but the point is, if we're only spending $14,6m on Marte there WILL be extra funds to make the team better. Who says we can't get Bregman, too? We currently have $26m in space before the first line. Another $20m before we hit the 2nd line. So $46m in total for a hard cap. Only spending $14.6 on Marte leaves a lot of room to still get a Bregman/another. 

Who they'll go for is guess work, but as much as I really like Bo, I think we both assume that we aren't going the 7 x $30m it'll likely cost and that narrows your options considerably.

I don't even think we should trade Mayer for Marte, as in the way the roster is constructed. But if they demanded it (unlikely as they seem to be all about the pitching), I'd do it and work out the rest, because it's all well and good talking about the average 100 Mayer's v 100 Marte's (again don't disagree with the logic in general), we are close to being able to win now. So you make the move that helps you win now. For the next 2/3 years Marte likely helps you a lot more than Mayer. A lot more. 

At some point we have to stop worrying about the future and try to win right now. We've lived in the future as fans for the past 6 years. 

 

 

[Hitch]

Another point to all this - we know Breslow has a type when it comes to pitching. What's his 'type' when it comes to hitters? 

Does anyone know what sort of a hitter/player he likes? Other than young and cost controlled? Because I can't see a pattern unlike with his pitching acquisitions. Which makes it a lot more difficult to figure out what player he will even target/value.

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we trade Bello, we'd have a new hole. 

I'd still like us to get a #2 SP'er, so trading Bello would mean we'd still need a #2 and then a #3-4 type. Maybe one top #2 would be enough.

One trade that keeps coming to my mind - 

Duran and Bello to the Royals for Ragans. 

Frees up more money to put into the offence and significantly improves our pitching 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i think you just traded away 3/5 of our starting pitching.

If someone wants Sandoval's contract, they can have him.

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

One trade that keeps coming to my mind - 

Duran and Bello to the Royals for Ragans. 

Frees up more money to put into the offence and significantly improves our pitching 

Doesn't free up that much money and significantly takes away from the offense. 

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Well I don't have a crystal ball, so hard to know, but the point is, if we're only spending $14,6m on Marte there WILL be extra funds to make the team better. Who says we can't get Bregman, too? We currently have $26m in space before the first line. Another $20m before we hit the 2nd line. So $46m in total for a hard cap. Only spending $14.6 on Marte leaves a lot of room to still get a Bregman/another.   In a vacuum 15 million on Marte is good value right now, and probably for a few more years but you're still in need of filling two more holes after that 3b/1B.  It's not just about getting Marte and saying hey we can still afford Bregman if we want because you're created another hole so it's Marte/Bregman/???? another hole to fill while still sitting right below the 2nd threshold that I don't think they're going over. 

Who they'll go for is guess work, but as much as I really like Bo, I think we both assume that we aren't going the 7 x $30m it'll likely cost and that narrows your options considerably. I'm actually started to sour on Bo but I still like him and think he would make this team tremendously better over the next few years.  Yes, $30 million would be more expensive than Marte but you have one less hole to fill.  $30 million is still less than $14.6 + $30.  For the Same money as Marte/Bregman you could have Bregman/Mayer/Story/Okamoto (if you like him) 

I don't even think we should trade Mayer for Marte, as in the way the roster is constructed. But if they demanded it (unlikely as they seem to be all about the pitching), I'd do it and work out the rest, because it's all well and good talking about the average 100 Mayer's v 100 Marte's (again don't disagree with the logic in general), we are close to being able to win now. So you make the move that helps you win now. For the next 2/3 years Marte likely helps you a lot more than Mayer. A lot more. 

I get your point here, and below.  I don't disagree with it at all.  I've always been about balance, I don't think that going into "win now" mode means trading away all your youngsters.  You need experience, proven talent and vets, but you also need young guys too.  Even big teams like LA, for all their spending and seemingly bottomless budget has home grown talent and guys they just don't trade because they fill important holes.  There's probably no better example of irresponsible spending vs. responsible spending than the Mets vs. the Dodgers.  For me, I want to trade away from positions of strength for areas of weakness and a Mayer for Marte trade does not do that.  If Cambell looked like the second coming of Pedroia at 2B, Story was good, and Casas never got hurt and look like a stud at 1B and Bregman never opted out but we had two less outfielders I'd say the opposite.  Trade Mayer for an outfielder.  

I don't believe that we have to trade Mayer, or that we have to trade for Marte to be all on and go for it.  There's more than one way to skin a cat. 

At some point we have to stop worrying about the future and try to win right now. We've lived in the future as fans for the past 6 years. 

 

 

 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Well I don't have a crystal ball, so hard to know, but the point is, if we're only spending $14,6m on Marte there WILL be extra funds to make the team better. Who says we can't get Bregman, too? We currently have $26m in space before the first line. Another $20m before we hit the 2nd line. So $46m in total for a hard cap. Only spending $14.6 on Marte leaves a lot of room to still get a Bregman/another. 

Who they'll go for is guess work, but as much as I really like Bo, I think we both assume that we aren't going the 7 x $30m it'll likely cost and that narrows your options considerably.

I don't even think we should trade Mayer for Marte, as in the way the roster is constructed. But if they demanded it (unlikely as they seem to be all about the pitching), I'd do it and work out the rest, because it's all well and good talking about the average 100 Mayer's v 100 Marte's (again don't disagree with the logic in general), we are close to being able to win now. So you make the move that helps you win now. For the next 2/3 years Marte likely helps you a lot more than Mayer. A lot more. 

At some point we have to stop worrying about the future and try to win right now. We've lived in the future as fans for the past 6 years. 

 

 

I have been beating the drum, since before I knew of your existence (the boston.com days) that the best approach to roster building is cyclical.  (Not to imply I was ahead of the curve or that you are parroting me, or that I deserve a point - I dont sports forum scorekeep)  but I want to do more than just like this post, I want to vocalize or type-out (you cant hear my vocals) my extreme agreement with the bold.

There is a time to prioritize the future nad there is a time to prioritize the present.  This is like my only rigid (uncompromising belief)

I could even be convinced that our window isnt 100% open (Im not there currently).  But the point is that its possible to convince me that we are not quite yet in the "win now" phase, but you just cannot (well, not you but you know what I mean)....One cannot convince me that it is appropriate / strategic to always be looking 5 years down the road. 

My concern with the posters who in my opinion go a bit too far on prospect excitement, loving the youth, always thinking about prospects, penciling in our 2030 lineup and being like OMG!!....My concern is that in my experience, and this goes back to the boston.com days - my concern is that Ive just heard it all before.  There are some people who in 2010 presented an all homegrown lineup for 2014 and were like omg this team is gonna be soooo good, then in 2014 has a 2018 lineup filled with all new homegrowns (omg , this team is gonna be sooooo good), then in 2018 showing 2022.  And its not as clean/consistent as Im implying, but its certainly true that some people are so excited for the "next group", and the problem is that when that "next group" arrives, those people are on to the next "next group".

Someone said something about how posters have "shiny new object" syndrome when we express wanting that next free-agent.  But I honestly see "shiny new object" syndrome more with the "work in the kids" crowd than I see it from the "sign free-agents" crowd.

 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If someone wants Sandoval's contract, they can have him.

I've been a firm believer that Patrick was a lock for the rotation, the 4th or 5th spot.  He does a lot of things the Sox like and you can imagine that they see a guy that they think they can adjust and turn into the guy he was in 2022.  He has great breaking stuff, I could see a scenario where if he comes back and has added a tick or two of velocity that he's going to shut a lot of people up around here. 

The thing is, he's done nothing for us and doesn't have much of a track record before he came here.  He was injured all of last year and didn't contribute anything but the Sox knew that.  I know there was some hope he might be able to come back at the end of last year but this signing was all about 2026.  

Now with that said, could the Sox still shift gears and decide that he's just not the guy anymore and other moves can move him down?  Maybe they have more confidence in Oviedo, Crawford, and Early to fill out those 4th and 5th spots and move on???? I'm actually at a place now where that would not surprise me.  

 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Another point to all this - we know Breslow has a type when it comes to pitching. What's his 'type' when it comes to hitters? 

Does anyone know what sort of a hitter/player he likes? Other than young and cost controlled? Because I can't see a pattern unlike with his pitching acquisitions. Which makes it a lot more difficult to figure out what player he will even target/value.

Ones that will accept short term contracts.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Someone said something about how posters have "shiny new object" syndrome when we express wanting that next free-agent.  But I honestly see "shiny new object" syndrome more with the "work in the kids" crowd than I see it from the "sign free-agents" crowd.

 

We like shiny new object kids because we know that they're cheap.  If the Sox actually acted like the 3rd largest market in the country they'd use that to augment a team of FA talent mixed in with the youth. 

That's how LA does it, they sign big time guys but they actually develop and bring up their own young talent as well.  Also, when I have a "roman anthony" as my "shiny new toy" I've been on him for 3 years....the FA Shiny new Toy crows literally has a new toy they want every month.  So that analogy doesn't really apply to the prospect model. 

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Doesn't free up that much money and significantly takes away from the offense. 

Yes, while I dont hate the trade, my issue with it or at least how it has been presented (by a few people) as a money-saver is that Duran at 8m is adding to the offense at very good value. So i have a hard time believing we'll be able to stretch that 8m saved far enough to compensate for even the loss of Duran, never-mind painting the freeing up of Durans money as a way to "improve" the offense.  

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I've been a firm believer that Patrick was a lock for the rotation, the 4th or 5th spot.  He does a lot of things the Sox like and you can imagine that they see a guy that they think they can adjust and turn into the guy he was in 2022.  He has great breaking stuff, I could see a scenario where if he comes back and has added a tick or two of velocity that he's going to shut a lot of people up around here. 

The thing is, he's done nothing for us and doesn't have much of a track record before he came here.  He was injured all of last year and didn't contribute anything but the Sox knew that.  I know there was some hope he might be able to come back at the end of last year but this signing was all about 2026.  

Now with that said, could the Sox still shift gears and decide that he's just not the guy anymore and other moves can move him down?  Maybe they have more confidence in Oviedo, Crawford, and Early to fill out those 4th and 5th spots and move on???? I'm actually at a place now where that would not surprise me.  

 

I agree and we dont have the resources that the sox do (up-close look, experts, doctors, deep-dives into the health of his arm).  Its certainly possible that they had good reason to consider him a good bet for 2026 at one point in time and no longer do.  Personally, Im in the dark on this one.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I agree and we dont have the resources that the sox do (up-close look, experts, doctors, deep-dives into the health of his arm).  Its certainly possible that they had good reason to consider him a good bet for 2026 at one point in time and no longer do.  Personally, Im in the dark on this one.

If the front half of your rotation is strong, I actually love these types of moves.  You have your Crochets at the top locking down the rotation and if Sandoval busts it's whatever because you have a strong 1-4, and if he does what you think he can do your team is a ton better and you can offer the Q.O. and receive draft pick compensation and more $$$ in the draft. 

Personally, I think the Sox should do one of these every single year, as long as they're not their primary moves. 

[mvp 78]

I don't really see the "Justin Gonzales will be the RFer in 2028" on here, so I think those types of posts have kind of become passé. If anything, posters talk about guys that are very close to promotions and when they could contribute in the next year or so (Early, Tolle, etc.). I can be excited to talk about prospects and how a guy is doing in Salem, but it really doesn't mean I'm projecting them for a promotion to Boston at any point. It's two distinct parts of my fandom. 

Also, it was OWNERSHIP that was driving the youth movement recently and the idea of a Big Three. They put all their eggs in those guys and chose to hold off on acquiring FA's for a few years. They intentionally took a step back in '22, '23 and '24 to let that group develop at the expense of the big club. Should they have? Hell no. There's no reason to when you are bringing in that much revenue. You should be able to have prospects AND acquire FA's. But you can't blame fans for hoping that a youth movement will bring us out of the doldrums when that's all ownership allotted for us. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't really see the "Justin Gonzales will be the RFer in 2028" on here, so I think those types of posts have kind of become passé. If anything, posters talk about guys that are very close to promotions and when they could contribute in the next year or so (Early, Tolle, etc.). I can be excited to talk about prospects and how a guy is doing in Salem, but it really doesn't mean I'm projecting them for a promotion to Boston at any point. It's two distinct parts of my fandom. 

Also, it was OWNERSHIP that was driving the youth movement recently and the idea of a Big Three. They put all their eggs in those guys and chose to hold off on acquiring FA's for a few years. They intentionally took a step back in '22, '23 and '24 to let that group develop at the expense of the big club. Should they have? Hell no. There's no reason to when you are bringing in that much revenue. You should be able to have prospects AND acquire FA's. But you can't blame fans for hoping that a youth movement will bring us out of the doldrums when that's all ownership allotted for us. 

The whole point in developing guys like the big three and getting them to the bigs is to augment them with veterans and proven talent around them E.G. actually signing guys to free agency. 

The absence of doing so just makes you the.......well apparently it makes you the Boston Red Sox. 

[Duran Is The Man]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If someone wants Sandoval's contract, they can have him.

agreed. signing him was just another in a long line of idiotic moves made by this FO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The whole point in developing guys like the big three and getting them to the bigs is to augment them with veterans and proven talent around them E.G. actually signing guys to free agency. 

The absence of doing so just makes you the.......well apparently it makes you the Boston Red Sox. 

While the prospects ferment, I've never believed teams in a rebuild shouldn't use resources to sign or trade for an ace pitcher.

Don't wait for a window -- a big league ballclub has a responsibility to its fans to open one!

The Red Sox finally did that with Crochet, but make no mistake, this team is still in a rebuild. They have what looks like a promising group of young pitchers, decent catching, and some above-average all-around outfielders. 

But they're also missing a major league infield, quality contact in the batting order to get them to another postseason, and more longball threats to make a deep run in the playoffs. A really creative CBO might be good enough and lucky enough to make moves to acquire primetime players with multiple skills that overlap all those needs and expedite title contention -- but nothing is guaranteed...

... except you can't win the lottery unless you buy a ticket.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

agreed. signing him was just another in a long line of idiotic moves made by this FO.

Last year, the Sox went over the CBT by 4.7M. Sandoval's hit was 9M. They would have been under if they didn't sign him, a guy who provided nothing except take up an offseason 40 man roster spot. 🤔

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

The thing is, he's done nothing for us and doesn't have much of a track record before he came here.  He was injured all of last year and didn't contribute anything but the Sox knew that.  I know there was some hope he might be able to come back at the end of last year but this signing was all about 2026.  

 

I guess it depends on your view of a good track record is. He's had a longer stretch of good pitching than Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Oviedo and even Bello.

2021-2022 41 GS and 236 IP

3.17 ERA/3.44 FIP

245K:96BB

5.2 fWAR/5.3 bWAR

132 ERA+

Add the okay 2023 season: 69 GS 380 IP is a way longer sample size than those I listed above:

3.53 ERA/33.72 FIP

373K:170BB

7.5 fWAR/5.7 bWAR

122 ERA+

We don't know if he can regain those numbers, but he does have a decent track record over nearly 400 IP.