Predicting LT payroll

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Well, I meant guys over 33 not over 34 because I wanted to count Freeman twice.  Lets not small sample size fluxuations here.  Freddie Freeman is not a tag along on the dodgers.  He is not still playing because of PR or ticket sales. They dont need him to sell tickets.  Hes been part of their core.  Now going into age 36 season maybe that happens.

But age 35 AND age 34 (thats two full years): OPS+ = 141.

Thats my point.  The north of 33 hanger-ons are certainly there. Getting that next contract out of PR and name recognition.  But the truly great players are usually still helping their team wins even when they are north of 33 and Freeman is a pt for team drew.

Father time is catching up to him like the t-rex in Jurassic Park. 

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

We're talking a less than 1% differnce in swing timing.

If you're losing 1% per year, it is like facing a 98 mph FB instead of a 95 mph FB.  And it's also wear-and-tear on ligaments and cartilage.  My muscles feel as good as they did a long time ago.  But I don't have nearly the elasticity in my elbows or my shoulders.

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You make some good points, but isn't the important thing to know is how many 30-32 year olds who are still FT'ers go on to play 2, 3, 4 or more productive seasons?

I'm not sure comparing them to all those who never made it to 30 matters much.

Age decline is real and very common. It's the norm not the exception. It's not always easy to judge who will age well. If someone could do that...

Youre not bad at it mr: "rumors of papi's decline have been greatly exaggerated"

When Ortiz had a relatively rough 2008/2009 (for his standards) and the youth worshippers wanted to kick him to the curb to make room for this Chris Carter (I think theres been a few)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartech01.shtml

And we heard all the "would you rather have a player in his 30s declining and making big money or a player in his 20s making min wage" and all those other WAR per dollars arguments then too (jokers were trying to attach a prospect to papi just so someone would take his "bad contract" when he still had 5 HOF years left). 

Some of us remember

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Saeger coming to Boston isn’t happening either way.

Nor should it.  Hugely expensive, poor Fenway experience, lefty, and has missed 142 games in the last three years..  

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Youre not bad at it mr: "rumors of papi's decline have been greatly exaggerated"

When Ortiz had a relatively rough 2008/2009 (for his standards) and the youth worshippers wanted to kick him to the curb to make room for this Chris Carter (I think theres been a few)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartech01.shtml

And we heard all the "would you rather have a player in his 30s declining and making big money or a player in his 20s making min wage" and all those other WAR per dollars arguments then too (jokers were trying to attach a prospect to papi just so someone would take his "bad contract" when he still had 5 HOF years left). 

Some of us remember

I don't remember anyone on here wanting Chris Carter. He was already seen as AAAA prior to coming to the org I think. PTBNL for Wily Mo Pena. 

Papi's problem was starting slow every season:

08: Apr 644 OPS

09: Apr 623 OPS, May 520 OPS

10: Apr 524 OPS

He was back to normal afterwards. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not saying guys north of 35 aren't good.  Many of them are,

Not if they're hitters.  Last year, there were only 6 hitters 36 or older that had 300+ PASs, and their combined fWAR was 3.6.  Even if you expanded that to 34 and older, you only have 3 guys with an fWAR higher than 2.3.

For all practical purposes, age 33 is your last year in baseball.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't remember anyone on here wanting Chris Carter. He was already seen as AAAA prior to coming to the org I think. PTBNL for Wily Mo Pena. 

Papi's problem was starting slow every season:

08: Apr 644 OPS

09: Apr 623 OPS, May 520 OPS

10: Apr 524 OPS

He was back to normal afterwards. 

his name was burritoT and he was on boston.com forums.

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

PTBNL for Wily Mo Pena.

That's not the important trade.  Carter was the guy the RS traded for Billy Wagner.  While many trades how worked out worse, the Wagner trade was one of the stupidest trades in history.  He was a Type A FA.  We paid one month salary ($1.6M) for Wagner, and got two first round draft picks out of it.  How did the Mets miss that?

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't remember anyone on here wanting Chris Carter. He was already seen as AAAA prior to coming to the org I think. PTBNL for Wily Mo Pena. 

Papi's problem was starting slow every season:

08: Apr 644 OPS

09: Apr 623 OPS, May 520 OPS

10: Apr 524 OPS

He was back to normal afterwards. 

It could have been someone different than Chris Carter also, like Jeff Bailey or Place or another prospect, but the point is that we've heard all the "younger is better and its all about WAR / dollar spent and value value value" arguments before.  And the dont sign players over 30 and dont trade for them.  And always be looking 5 years down the road.

You know what I say? When you are always dreaming about tomorrow, tomorrow never comes. Im philosophical

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

his name was burritoT and he was on boston.com forums.

I did a search on here and there was one user that was pumping him up big time too and accounts for about half of the Chris Carter mentions. Most of the other users talked about how he was horrible defensively and should only be DH if Papi was injured. They thought he had more of a chance as a bench bat once he transitioned to OF. He was a pretty horrible OFer too.

I completely forgot about that guy. 

[drewski6]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

That's not the important trade.  Carter was the guy the RS traded for Billy Wagner.  While many trades how worked out worse, the Wagner trade was one of the stupidest trades in history.  He was a Type A FA.  We paid one month salary ($1.6M) for Wagner, and got two first round draft picks out of it.  How did the Mets miss that?

By being the mets

They also traded daryl strawberry and adam sandlers thanksgiving song frames it as an unbelievable decision.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's not the important trade.  Carter was the guy the RS traded for Billy Wagner.  While many trades how worked out worse, the Wagner trade was one of the stupidest trades in history.  He was a Type A FA.  We paid one month salary ($1.6M) for Wagner, and got two first round draft picks out of it.  How did the Mets miss that?

Because they are the Mets?

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not if they're hitters.  Last year, there were only 6 hitters 36 or older that had 300+ PASs, and their combined fWAR was 3.6.  Even if you expanded that to 34 and older, you only have 3 guys with an fWAR higher than 2.3.

For all practical purposes, age 33 is your last year in baseball.

Yes, this is exactly my point. 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I did a search on here and there was one user that was pumping him up big time too and accounts for about half of the Chris Carter mentions. Most of the other users talked about how he was horrible defensively and should only be DH if Papi was injured. They thought he had more of a chance as a bench bat once he transitioned to OF. He was a pretty horrible OFer too.

I completely forgot about that guy. 

There were people on boston.com who wanted to ditch ortiz in 2008 , declaring him washed up...And moonslav made a famous "rumors of papi's decline have been greatly exaggerated" post and it was a moonslav post, so of course it stuck around for like 3 years and got up to 10k posts and might still be going if BDC didnt kick us out.  Im recent here, becasue i went to another place first because i wanted a single sign-on with my basketball foruming

But that place didnt have enough activity, and pumpsie eventually shut it down and I tried to get in here for awhile before i was finally let in.  I just kept trying to create account and it kept telling me that it was in queue/consideration and I just dont think anybody was checking it.

But then something happened here, with the takeover and I got right in. So ty for the changes here whomever was behind it. Wonder if RKARP is here somewhere. RKARP you here?

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because they are the Mets?

wait the mets never actually traded darryl strawberry? Sandler is just wrong?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

wait the mets never actually traded darryl strawberry? Sandler is just wrong?

It was for dramatic effect like Hubie Halloween isn't a documentary.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

 moonslav made a famous "rumors of papi's decline have been greatly exaggerated" post and it was a moonslav post, so of course it stuck around for like 3 years and got up to 10k posts

Sounds about right! 

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

oh no, we suck again

There is "still time" and "plenty of talent out there," but there are plenty of teams looking more willing to ante up on the final asking price.

We kinda lucked out that Bregman fell into our laps and we saw a resurgence by Gio and Story. We need to get bold before all that's left is mold. 

[Kimmi]

32 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not if they're hitters.  Last year, there were only 6 hitters 36 or older that had 300+ PASs, and their combined fWAR was 3.6.  Even if you expanded that to 34 and older, you only have 3 guys with an fWAR higher than 2.3.

For all practical purposes, age 33 is your last year in baseball.

This is why I can't fathom signing players to huge contracts that take them into their late 30s or even early 40s.  Yes, they will likely be very good for the first part of the contract, but that's an awful lot of money to potentially have to eat in the latter years.  I know the owners can afford it, but that doesn't make it the right thing to do.

 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, this is exactly my point. 

Guys who were very good beyond their age 32/33 seasons, in most cases for multiple years past age 33 (a non complete list that just scratches the surface):

Ortiz
Manny
Nelson Cruz
George Springer
Jose Bautista
Encarnacion
Mcguire
Ruth
Edmonds
Larry Walker

Ichiro

Beltre

Gary Sheff

David Justice
Palmeiro
Ricky Henderson

Goldshmidt
Willie Mays
Aaron Judge
Babe Ruth
AROD
Bobby abreu
Gwynn
Bonds
Griffey
Ted Williams
Hammering Hank (Aaron)
Hammering Hank (Greenberg)
Ellis Burks
Cal Ripken
Barry Larkin
Pete Rose
Jeff Bagwell
Biggio (senior)
Derek Jeter
Joe Dimaggio
Miguel Tejada
Freddie Freeman
Frank Thomas
Jim Thome

JD Martinez
Sin Soo Choo
Mike Cameron

Brady Anderson
Jimmy Rollins
Giambi
Texiera
Anthony Rizzo
Torii Hunter
Mike Lowell
Chase Utley
Chipper Jones

Wade Boggs

Stan the Man
Minni Minoso

Eric Davis
Raul Ibanez
Paul Molitor
Miggy
Pujols
Willie Mays
Sammy Sosa
Mike Schmidt
Carlos Delgado

Lou Broc
Otis Nixon

Jeff Kent
Jeff Konine
George Brett
Tim Raines
Pudge
VMART
Vlad (sr)
Darryl Strawberry
Ryan Howard (maybe he fell off drastically at 33)
Moises Allou
Eddie Murray
Andres Galaragga and his super weird batting stance
Mickey Mantle
Lou Gehrig
Fred McGriff
Jose Canseco
Adam Dunn
Mike Stanton
Yaz
Carlos Beltran
Juangon
Andre Dawson
Mike Piazza
Soriano
Harold Baines
Todd Helton
Joey Votto
Lance Berkman

sooooo many more

apolgies for any repeats and weird spacing
 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

This is why I can't fathom signing players to huge contracts that take them into their late 30s or even early 40s.  Yes, they will likely be very good for the first part of the contract, but that's an awful lot of money to potentially have to eat in the latter years.  I know the owners can afford it, but that doesn't make it the right thing to do.

 

Alonso will be 35 for his last season of this deal. That's to the midpoint of his 30's and no longer. I'd have been fine with a 6th yr added if it brought down the AAV a bit. Instead of $31M x 5, maybe $29M x 6. (He's make $21M in that extra year.)

[moonslav59]

It's not often players have great seasons after 32.

Here is a list of top fWARs since 2016 by 34 or older players:

6.8 Goldschmidt

6.2 B Crawford

5.4 Kinsler

5.3 Posey

5.2 Beltre, Springer

5.1 Lowrie

4.7 Cruz, 4.6 Ortiz, 4.5 Cruz

3 @ 4.0, 3 @ 3.9, 4 @ 3.5-3.8

6 @ 3.0-3.4

15 @ 2.6-2.9

24 @ 2.0-2.4

That's 64 players at 2.0 plus in 10 years, or about 6-7 per season.

118 at 1.0 or more. That's not a lot. (12 per year.)

Pitchers:

6 at 6.0+

3 in the 5's

8 in the 4's

8 from 3.5 to 3.9

9 from 3.0 to 3,4

42 in the 2's

That's 76 at 2.0 or more (7-8 per year)

155 at 1.0 or better (15-16 per year.)

 

[drewski6]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not often players have great seasons after 32.

Here is a list of top fWARs since 2016 by 34 or older players:

6.8 Goldschmidt

6.2 B Crawford

5.4 Kinsler

5.3 Posey

5.2 Beltre, Springer

5.1 Lowrie

4.7 Cruz, 4.6 Ortiz, 4.5 Cruz

3 @ 4.0, 3 @ 3.9, 4 @ 3.5-3.8

6 @ 3.0-3.4

15 @ 2.6-2.9

24 @ 2.0-2.4

That's 64 players at 2.0 plus in 10 years, or about 6-7 per season.

118 at 1.0 or more. That's not a lot. (12 per year.)

Pitchers:

6 at 6.0+

3 in the 5's

8 in the 4's

8 from 3.5 to 3.9

9 from 3.0 to 3,4

42 in the 2's

That's 76 at 2.0 or more (7-8 per year)

155 at 1.0 or better (15-16 per year.)

 

Now do under 23

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Now do under 23

Okay, but my sample was 34+ not 32+.

under 23 (2016-2025) fWAR (the sample sizes were both about 200 players deep at 300+ PAs)

3 @7+

6 @ 6-6.9

16 @ 5-5.9

20 @ 4-4.9

30 @ 3-3.9

40 @ 2-2.9 (105 over 2.0 vs 64 over 34 yr olds)

50 @ 1.-1.9 (155 over 1.0 vs 118 over 34)

[Hugh2]

12 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Guys who were very good beyond their age 32/33 seasons, in most cases for multiple years past age 33 (a non complete list that just scratches the surface):

Ortiz
Manny
Nelson Cruz
George Springer
Jose Bautista
Encarnacion
Mcguire
Ruth
Edmonds
Larry Walker

Ichiro

Beltre

Gary Sheff

David Justice
Palmeiro
Ricky Henderson

Goldshmidt
Willie Mays
Aaron Judge
Babe Ruth
AROD
Bobby abreu
Gwynn
Bonds
Griffey
Ted Williams
Hammering Hank (Aaron)
Hammering Hank (Greenberg)
Ellis Burks
Cal Ripken
Barry Larkin
Pete Rose
Jeff Bagwell
Biggio (senior)
Derek Jeter
Joe Dimaggio
Miguel Tejada
Freddie Freeman
Frank Thomas
Jim Thome

JD Martinez
Sin Soo Choo
Mike Cameron

Brady Anderson
Jimmy Rollins
Giambi
Texiera
Anthony Rizzo
Torii Hunter
Mike Lowell
Chase Utley
Chipper Jones

Wade Boggs

Stan the Man
Minni Minoso

Eric Davis
Raul Ibanez
Paul Molitor
Miggy
Pujols
Willie Mays
Sammy Sosa
Mike Schmidt
Carlos Delgado

Lou Broc
Otis Nixon

Jeff Kent
Jeff Konine
George Brett
Tim Raines
Pudge
VMART
Vlad (sr)
Darryl Strawberry
Ryan Howard (maybe he fell off drastically at 33)
Moises Allou
Eddie Murray
Andres Galaragga and his super weird batting stance
Mickey Mantle
Lou Gehrig
Fred McGriff
Jose Canseco
Adam Dunn
Mike Stanton
Yaz
Carlos Beltran
Juangon
Andre Dawson
Mike Piazza
Soriano
Harold Baines
Todd Helton
Joey Votto
Lance Berkman

sooooo many more

apolgies for any repeats and weird spacing
 

I never once said guys can’t be good past that age, only that the vast majority of guys fall off a cliff before then.  
 

the fact that you are literally going back to the 1940’s and have such a small list of a lot of HOFers actually proves my point.  
 

how big is the list of the guys who were good and fell off a cliff by 35? That list would be the size of a book, Think about how insanely enormous that list would be.

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Now do under 23

The problem with this is two fold.

A.) I’m not comparing Polanco to any 23 year old nor am I saying we have to go out and get a youngster instead of him.

B.) comparing a 23 year old to a 33 year old isn’t the same thing as comparing 

23-28 vs. 33-38

[Hugh2]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, but my sample was 34+ not 32+.

under 23 (2016-2025) fWAR (the sample sizes were both about 200 players deep at 300+ PAs)

3 @7+

6 @ 6-6.9

16 @ 5-5.9

20 @ 4-4.9

30 @ 3-3.9

40 @ 2-2.9 (105 over 2.0 vs 64 over 34 yr olds)

50 @ 1.-1.9 (155 over 1.0 vs 118 over 34)

But the under 23 guy likely comes with 6 years of team control.  So shouldn’t we really be looking at value from 23-28?

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Guys who were very good beyond their age 32/33 seasons
Sin Soo Choo
 

3.7 fWAR after age 33. How did you scrape this list???

[mvp 78]

Otis Nixon - 2.5 fWAR as a 34 year old and then never had another season above 1 fWAR

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Otis Nixon - 2.5 fWAR as a 34 year old and then never had another season above 1 fWAR

Otis played with the Pips in the basement of the Delta House before it was on double secret probation.