Predicting LT payroll

[Hitch]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading Mayer for KMarte only makes sense, if we also sign Bregman, Bichette or Suarez.

The added plus for doing this is that we may then trade an OF'er for a solid #2 SP. 

This would fill 2 of our major holes and jump us to top 3-5 status.

Of course. That's what the whole conversation is predicated on. The $14,7m LT hit leaves room for another power bat. It's what I'd like to see happen, but I understand the negatives of it. There's no prefect way to build this team right now.

[Hugh2]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Trading Mayer for KMarte only makes sense, if we also sign Bregman, Bichette or Suarez.

The added plus for doing this is that we may then trade an OF'er for a solid #2 SP. 

This would fill 2 of our major holes and jump us to top 3-5 status.

And Casas is your 1B? who....may not even be ready be opening day. 

We need infielders way way way way more than starting pitching.  Grey IS YOUR #2. 

Why can't we just trade for an infielder without trading away Mayer? 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Of course. That's what the whole conversation is predicated on. The $14,7m LT hit leaves room for another power bat. It's what I'd like to see happen, but I understand the negatives of it. There's no prefect way to build this team right now.

What power Bat are you going to add on top of $241 million that will keep the Sox below the second luxury tax threshold??????

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don't think Diamondbacks do the second offer. We don't even know they want Mayer, either. There's been some noise around it, but the word on the street seems to be they want starting pitching and a lot of it.

That's not the point I was trying to make.  You can switch out the names to fit with what they want, you can bring in a 3rd team, you can even switch up your target to another player not named Marte.  My point is you keep Mayer to play 3B/2B and if you can trade for a guy like Marte you plug him in the other hole. 

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, Hitch said:

But nobody is saying that all the chips should be thrown in. . 

It was said, I also don't believe anybody is going back and re-reading every post on this thread.  It was said I responded.  It's really a mute point.  If you're going to say that no one is saying then ok I'll concede that point. 

[drewski6]

36 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's another way solidify my position. 

Trading Marcelo Mayer + Kyson WItherspoon for Ketel Marte = No Bueno

Trading Tolle/Abreu and Dorian Soto for Ketel Marte = Mucho Bueno. 

 

 

Bello, Harrison, and Soto ?

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

What power Bat are you going to add on top of $241 million that will keep the Sox below the second luxury tax threshold??????

Let's not go into multi question marks territory Hugh!!!!!!!

We are currently stated as having $26,376,949 free space before level 1. So around $46m until the end of level 2. Marte costs $14.7m. We have plenty of room. And we still have people to trade away, like Duran and pitchers. 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It was said, I also don't believe anybody is going back and re-reading every post on this thread.  It was said I responded.  It's really a mute point.  If you're going to say that no one is saying then ok I'll concede that point. 

For my sins, and possibly something I need too speak to my therapist about, I AM reading every post in here. 🤦‍♂️

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Bello, Harrison, and Soto ?

I don't care who the names are as long as we are trading from a position of strength to fill a position of need. 

That's just good business.  

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Let's not go into multi question marks territory Hugh!!!!!!!

We are currently stated as having $26,376,949 free space before level 1. So around $46m until the end of level 2. Marte costs $14.7m. We have plenty of room. And we still have people to trade away, like Duran and pitchers. 

That is an INSANELY fair question to ask.  Now who is being hyperbolic????

We currently have $17.81 space below the first cap. Adding Marte puts us around $23 below the second. 

https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

[Hugh2]

All the power bats on the market are going to get $30 million plus, maybe Bregman or Bichette get around 27-28 if they're signing even longer term deals (which we know the Sox are NOT doing). 

THere's no power hitter on the market who will not put us over that second luxury tax line if we also add Marte through trade. 

[Hugh2]

Also, why is Martes LT tax hit next year under $15 million? I believe it's actually $17.25 which is really a mute point because I don't think it will make a difference staying under the second LT line if they wanted to trade for him AND sign Bregman/Bichette

[Hitch]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That is an INSANELY fair question to ask.  Now who is being hyperbolic????

We currently have $17.81 space below the first cap. Adding Marte puts us around $23 below the second. 

https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

Not according to these - 2026 Boston Red Sox 2026 Luxury Tax Payroll

Down boy, I never said it wasn't a fair question to ask ha! But even if your figure is right, we have players we will be trading out, and even before that we'd have $23m to spend. Do you really think there's no power to be had in FA or trade within those parameters? 

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

All the power bats on the market are going to get $30 million plus, maybe Bregman or Bichette get around 27-28 if they're signing even longer term deals (which we know the Sox are NOT doing). 

THere's no power hitter on the market who will not put us over that second luxury tax line if we also add Marte through trade. 

Suarez?

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Also, why is Martes LT tax hit next year under $15 million? I believe it's actually $17.25 which is really a mute point because I don't think it will make a difference staying under the second LT line if they wanted to trade for him AND sign Bregman/Bichette

He's got deferrals in his contract so the LT hit is only $14.7m. According to Rosenthal at least. 

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Now is certainly "THE TIME" to make a move or two with prospects, without ruining the future. We have enough prospects to do that.

I don't agree with this. The prospect list is getting weaker every time Breslow makes another trade. This is the weakest top 20 since before Mayer was drafted IMO. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, Hitch said:

Not according these these - 2026 Boston Red Sox 2026 Luxury Tax Payroll

Down boy, I never said it wasn't a fair question to ask ha! But even if your figure is right, we have players we will be trading out, and even before that we'd have $23m to spend. Do you really think there's no power to be had in FA or trade within those parameters? 

Why is Cots the go to?

for the last several years I've found Soxpayroll to be more accurate when it comes to all things Red Sox payroll than anyone else. 

Also, if you use Cots they're saying his LT hit is $17.25 not 14.6

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Suarez?

He's got deferrals in his contract so the LT hit is only $14.7m. According to Rosenthal at least. 

Then how come the deferred money didn't reduce his LT hit in his original contract???

 

Unless COTS is wrong. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Why is Cots the go to?

for the last several years I've found Soxpayroll to be more accurate when it comes to all things Red Sox payroll than anyone else. 

Also, if you use Cots they're saying his LT hit is $17.25 not 14.6

I don't really know who is the best to go for. Regardless, getting back to the actual point, we've got plenty of money to make things happen. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Then how come the deferred money didn't reduce his LT hit in his original contract???

 

Unless COTS is wrong. 

No idea of the specifics. Just passing on what is being reported as fact by the big dogs.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Then how come the deferred money didn't reduce his LT hit in his original contract???

 

Unless COTS is wrong. 

I think Rosenthal is saying that his luxury hit would go down in '26 if he was traded and that would be the new tax calc. For some reason, he has a decreased salary in '27 which makes the luxury tax calculation screwy when reevaluated in the short term. 🤔

[UtahSox]

34 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Of course. That's what the whole conversation is predicated on. The $14,7m LT hit leaves room for another power bat. It's what I'd like to see happen, but I understand the negatives of it. There's no prefect way to build this team right now.

Or scary thought they are so cheap, they think that appeases us. And they add him call it a day “hey boss how’s the yacht? I got our middle of order power bat and only had to pay 14.7” we won’t win sh*t but we can atleast control the narrative. 

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Rosenthal is saying that his luxury hit would go down in '26 if he was traded and that would be the new tax calc. For some reason, he has a decreased salary in '27 which makes the luxury tax calculation screwy when reevaluated in the short term. 🤔

Yeah @Hugh2! So SHOVE IT!!!!! 🤨😂

God, please let them do something soon. It feels like collective insanity is settling in.

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Or scary thought they are so cheap, they think that appeases us. And they add him call it a day “hey boss how’s the yacht? I got our middle of order power bat and only had to pay 14.7” we won’t win sh*t but we can atleast control the narrative. 

There is a very real risk it's one and done. 

The fallout will be spectacular. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Yeah @Hugh2!! So SHOVE IT!!!!! 😂

God, please let them do something soon. It feels like collective insanity is settling in.

Cold stove is looking like Han at Jabba's Palace. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

There is a very real risk it's one and done. 

The fallout will be spectacular. 

1. Bregman Sox cap

2. Victory lap

3. Breslow nap

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don't really know who is the best to go for. Regardless, getting back to the actual point, we've got plenty of money to make things happen. 

But we KNOW they Sox won't spend above a certain level.  Trading for Marte and then also signing Bregman or Bo is most likely a pipe dream.  If I thought the Sox would and they did I'd feel much better about it. 

But when is the last time the Sox have spent A.) as much as they'd say the would AND B.) went above the second line (which they have not said they would). 

[UtahSox]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

There is a very real risk it's one and done. 

The fallout will be spectacular. 

Listening to Cotillo and McAdam podcast yesterday… Talking over and over about that 1st threshold, comparing us to the lowest common denominators saying “hey I mean we aren’t the Rays, we will never not spend $200m” it literally raised my blood pressure. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

But we KNOW they Sox won't spend above a certain level.  Trading for Marte and then also signing Bregman or Bo is most likely a pipe dream.  If I thought the Sox would and they did I'd feel much better about it. 

But when is the last time the Sox have spent A.) as much as they'd say the would AND B.) went above the second line (which they have not said they would). 

Well that's a different discussion. Whether they actually will spend all the way up to the 2nd line is definitely up for debate. 

Hell, if Campbell had proved he could even hit at league average last year, there's a world in which they'd already called it a lid for this off season. 🫣

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Yeah @Hugh2! So SHOVE IT!!!!! 🤨😂

God, please let them do something soon. It feels like collective insanity is settling in.

According to Cots, Martes tax hit WAS $19.4 million, which is his contract divided by years.  We know that resets when traded so that would be $103.5/6 (factoring in the player option). which is $17.25 a year. 

Cots is either right or wrong.  THey're a good source, but I think Sox Payroll has a better grasp on Bostons payroll. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

But we KNOW they Sox won't spend above a certain level.  Trading for Marte and then also signing Bregman or Bo is most likely a pipe dream.  If I thought the Sox would and they did I'd feel much better about it. 

But when is the last time the Sox have spent A.) as much as they'd say the would AND B.) went above the second line (which they have not said they would). 

Second line: 2018

I don't remember what happened that year... Can someone remind me?