Predicting LT payroll

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

But my point was that I dont think its wise move Duran for the purposes of freeing up 8m.

 

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Why is that my choice?

IRT the money, that's a pure hypothetical.  But the money saved can be re-purposed.  Whether or not it will be is a separate discussion.  And TBH, I don't care as much about the money as the fit.

The reason why that is your choice is because, as it stands now, Duran is our 4th OF.  Which makes him our DH.  And as a DH, he is only moderately better than Yoshida.  So, under that current construct, upgrading 2B is where we can the largest upgrade.  I think either Duran or Abreu have to go.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Maybe, but you know guys are going to advance, so it's not like they should of been a shocker. 

 

I expect guys to improve, but I only knew about Tolle from the draft, and thought Early was a marginal #5, maybe.  Kind of like Fitts, Dobbins, etc.  I expect #3 production from Sandoval this year.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela career Outs Above Average:

2B: 0 (221 Innings)

SS: -8 (692 Innings)

CF: 22 (1,167 Innings)

Rafaela's only value is playing CF. 

I'll add one more thing.  I can't speak for anyone else, but I love watching the dude play.  This is a small sample, but he's the best CF I've ever seen, with all due respect to Paul Blair.  I've never seen him take a bad step in the OF.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

 

IRT the money, that's a pure hypothetical.  But the money saved can be re-purposed.  Whether or not it will be is a separate discussion.  And TBH, I don't care as much about the money as the fit.

The reason why that is your choice is because, as it stands now, Duran is our 4th OF.  Which makes him our DH.  And as a DH, he is only moderately better than Yoshida.  So, under that current construct, upgrading 2B is where we can the largest upgrade.  I think either Duran or Abreu have to go.

cedanne could go, masa could play 1b.  There are other players/pitchers we could trade for Marte. But if we're trading duran for marte, its at lest better than duran for more pitching.

I think Masa would be fine at 1b, personally, and I dont think Casas is going to be healthy in 2026.

 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I expect guys to improve, but I only knew about Tolle from the draft, and thought Early was a marginal #5, maybe.  Kind of like Fitts, Dobbins, etc.  I expect #3 production from Sandoval this year.

I expect #2 from Tolle.

[drewski6]

I also expect #2 from Sonny

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'll add one more thing.  I can't speak for anyone else, but I love watching the dude play.  This is a small sample, but he's the best CF I've ever seen, with all due respect to Paul Blair.  I've never seen him take a bad step in the OF.

Its a treat watching him play OF.  Its beautiful, its majestic, its eye-popping.  It really stands out. 

And thats why, I think its overrated

Its worth something, its worth a lot.  Id love to keep him in CF, dont get me wrong.

But I think Duran is the better overall ballplayer.

 

[drewski6]

But Duran did drop that ball.

[drewski6]

Just now, drewski6 said:

But Duran did drop that ball.

And its a pattern (focuses lapses) , if it was the only time ive ever seen duran loose focus, i would excuse it.

Problem is its not the first time.

[drewski6]

I can be talked into or out of almost anything.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Its a treat watching him play OF.  Its beautiful, its majestic, its eye-popping.  It really stands out. 

And thats why, I think its overrated

Its worth something, its worth a lot.  Id love to keep him in CF, dont get me wrong.

But I think Duran is the better overall ballplayer.

 

Then keep Duran and deal Rafaela. Rafaela doesn't have MLB value at MIF. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

And thats why, I think its overrated

Its worth something, its worth a lot.  Id love to keep him in CF, dont get me wrong.

I wouldn't argue the point.  I love Raffy, but Abreu Duran can play a very good CF for us.  If, just for example, the Reds offer us Lodolo for Abreu, or Greene or Burns for Raffy, I can move Raffy.  Flexibility is one of my more favored traits.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't argue the point.  I love Raffy, but Abreu can play a very good CF for us.  If, just for example, the Reds offer us Lodolo for Abreu, or Greene or Burns for Raffy, I can move Raffy.  Flexibility is one of my more favored traits.

I would not move Abreu to CF. Anthony and Abreu are both strong corner OFers. Duran and Rafaela are better suited as CFers. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I can be talked into or out of almost anything.

The story of a misspent youth growing up in The Bronx.  As the T-shirt says, "No great story ever started with 'I was having a salad when....'.

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I would not move Abreu to CF. Anthony and Abreu are both strong corner OFers. Duran and Rafaela are better suited as CFers. 

Sorry, I'm going claim an auto-correct.  I meant Duran.  And even when I was looking at it, I knew it wasn't right, but too lazy to figure out why.

[Hitch]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Guarantee they could get rid of Sandoval and have someone take his full contract. Moving Hicks or Masa wouldn't be as big of a deal as people make it out to be. Henry just doesn't want to eat the salary. 

They're not going to give him away after paying him a lot of money for nothing last year. I don't see them getting much back so I'm highly doubtful of your summation,

Masa is going to be VERY hard to move unless we eat almost all of it. Nobody wants him or Hicks.

[moonslav59]

18 hours ago, drewski6 said:

150/6, I will be able to convince myself is 150/5 with a free year tacked on....I dont think I would cringe. 180/6 and im getting nervous. 

$156-168M/6 would lower the AAV from $150M/5. Not sure he takes it.

[Hitch]

19 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Well I can't really respond to this seeing how the "hyperbole" is blank.  But if I had to guess, I'd guess I counter that with something because I"m certainly not trying to be hypoerbolic. 

It's funny, because it almost feels like youre' making an argument to keep Mayer.  He plugs up a hole, and trading him away creates another hole.  So we are literally at the time to keep a guy like Mayer and go out and either A.) trade assets you don't need RIGHT NOW or B.) sign a free agent. 

If you keep Mayer in AAA, you have 3 roster holes in just your infield alone.  I've heard the argument to let him cook in AAA a bit more.  They're strong and compelling, but at this point I think you just let him finish cooking at the MLB level, bat him 9th vs. LHP and sit him versus some.  If one guy in the bottom of your lineup is killing you then your team is crap and 100% NOT "In that time now" mode. 

The hyperbole was your comment about not wanting us to send away all our prospects. Something nobody at all is advocating for. Hell, nobody wants even most of them moved. 

I don't think you read my post correctly. I don't see Mayer as plugging up a hole. I don't think he's proven himself to be good enough or healthy enough to be given a starting spot. 

My feeling is we're making one big move (either Marte or Bregman), and likely get a secondary player so will either need Mayer manning 2nd/3rd, or a Casas/Romy platoon at 1st. I'd far prefer the second option right now.

[Hugh2]

Just now, Hitch said:

The hyperbole was your comment about not wanting us to send away all our prospects. Something nobody at all is advocating for. Hell, nobody wants even most of them moved. 

I don't think you read my post correctly. I don't see Mayer as plugging up a hole. I don't think he's proven himself to be good enough or healthy enough to be given a starting spot. 

My feeling is we're making one big move (either Marte or Bregman), and likely get a secondary player so will either need Mayer manning 2nd/3rd, or a Casas/Romy platoon at 1st. I'd far prefer the second option right now.

Well the argument there was against people who explicitly said "Now is the time" to make moves (which I don't disagree with) in which the farm should be used to make such trades. 

That's not hyperbole, I reject the notion that all the chips should be thrown in with no regard for the future. 

Signing Bregman and trade Mayer for Marte might make the team better in 2026.  Bregman, despite being a year younger actually shows much more early signs of decline.  The team could be hamstrung from as early on as 2027 on, heck for all you know Bregman will fall off a cliff next year. 

We are in here arguing Marte vs. Mayer, perhaps the argument should be Mayer vs. Bregman. Given what's available out there, and the concern that Bregman is not going to hold up. 

a Mayer/Story/Marte/? infield is probably going to add much more value over the next 5 years than a Bregman/Story/Marte/? infield.  

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

a Mayer/Story/Marte/? infield is probably going to add much more value over the next 5 years than a Bregman/Story/Marte/? infield.  

And how many people were mad about how slow Bregman looked the second half of last season?

[drewski6]

39 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well the argument there was against people who explicitly said "Now is the time" to make moves (which I don't disagree with) in which the farm should be used to make such trades. 

That's not hyperbole, I reject the notion that all the chips should be thrown in with no regard for the future. 

Signing Bregman and trade Mayer for Marte might make the team better in 2026.  Bregman, despite being a year younger actually shows much more early signs of decline.  The team could be hamstrung from as early on as 2027 on, heck for all you know Bregman will fall off a cliff next year. 

We are in here arguing Marte vs. Mayer, perhaps the argument should be Mayer vs. Bregman. Given what's available out there, and the concern that Bregman is not going to hold up. 

a Mayer/Story/Marte/? infield is probably going to add much more value over the next 5 years than a Bregman/Story/Marte/? infield.  

Thats the hyperbole (bolded) and I dont think anyone ever said that.  When I talk about the cyclical nature of roster bulding, im more talking about (if you think you can compete for a title next 5 years)"

1. Being willing to give an extra year or 2 on a contract to someone who plugs a hole in order to get the FA signed
2. On a short term deal, being willing to overpay a bit if that player you think is a missing piece
3. Flip some prospects for holes

Youve never seen me clamor for "all in" , Im not black/white like that.

Saying we are arguing Mayer vs Marte is reductive.  We're talking about a lot of things at once, and its just more nuanced than that.  And often, we're talking past each other without ralizing it.

[drewski6]

I guess its more straw man than hyperbole.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Thats the hyperbole (bolded) and I dont think anyone ever said that.  When I talk about the cyclical nature of roster bulding, im more talking about (if you think you can compete for a title next 5 years)"

1. Being willing to give an extra year or 2 on a contract to someone who plugs a hole in order to get the FA signed
2. On a short term deal, being willing to overpay a bit if that player you think is a missing piece
3. Flip some prospects for holes

Youve never seen me clamor for "all in" , Im not black/white like that.

Saying we are arguing Mayer vs Marte is reductive.  We're talking about a lot of things at once, and its just more nuanced than that.  And often, we're talking past each other without ralizing it.

I'm not against trading prospects, I'm against opening up holes to get a guy.  Once people identify someone they like and become willing to just trade whatever to get them I consider that putting "all" the chips in. 

I'm speaking in the aggregate here against many different comments and things said I'm not specifcally trying to take a single posters argument down so I don't think that is a strawman either as I have not created a situation that doesn't exist but rather commented on someone elses proposed trade, nor have I exxaggerated any situation.  Trading a young cost controlled guy who fills in a hole you need is not the type of move that is "all in" and I will continue to say it's rather irresponsible when you have plenty of trade chips.  If the Sox are willing, they can get Marte OR someone else without trade Mayer.  You need Marte (or someone like him) PLUS Mayer next year. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I guess its more straw man than hyperbole.

I violently disagree with this comment. 

[Hugh2]

Here's another way solidify my position. 

Trading Marcelo Mayer + Kyson WItherspoon for Ketel Marte = No Bueno

Trading Tolle/Abreu and Dorian Soto for Ketel Marte = Mucho Bueno. 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Now is certainly "THE TIME" to make a move or two with prospects, without ruining the future. We have enough prospects to do that.

This does not mean trade 3 top prospects for a 1 year rental, unless we extend him.

We have 4 OF'er plus Campbell and Masa.

We have 10+ SP'ers at a time when we are seeing gross overpays for starters.

We have 2-3 major holes to fill and logjams in areas where other teams have major holes to fill. The time is right. The match-ups with some teams is ripe.

Sure, I'd prefer JH just fork over the money to fill all 3 holes with high-priced FAs, but until I see that happen, I'm going on the assumption it won't happen. Hell, we may not even see one hole filled that way, let alone 2-3.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's another way solidify my position. 

Trading Marcelo Mayer + Kyson WItherspoon for Ketel Marte = No Bueno

Trading Tolle/Abreu and Dorian Soto for Ketel Marte = Mucho Bueno. 

 

 

Trading Mayer for KMarte only makes sense, if we also sign Bregman, Bichette or Suarez.

The added plus for doing this is that we may then trade an OF'er for a solid #2 SP. 

This would fill 2 of our major holes and jump us to top 3-5 status.

[notin]

19 hours ago, drewski6 said:

cedanne could go, masa could play 1b.  There are other players/pitchers we could trade for Marte. But if we're trading duran for marte, its at lest better than duran for more pitching.

I think Masa would be fine at 1b, personally, and I dont think Casas is going to be healthy in 2026.

 

Yoshida is like 5’2”.  He makes Andrew Vaughn look tall…

[Hitch]

56 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Well the argument there was against people who explicitly said "Now is the time" to make moves (which I don't disagree with) in which the farm should be used to make such trades. 

That's not hyperbole, I reject the notion that all the chips should be thrown in with no regard for the future. 

Signing Bregman and trade Mayer for Marte might make the team better in 2026.  Bregman, despite being a year younger actually shows much more early signs of decline.  The team could be hamstrung from as early on as 2027 on, heck for all you know Bregman will fall off a cliff next year. 

We are in here arguing Marte vs. Mayer, perhaps the argument should be Mayer vs. Bregman. Given what's available out there, and the concern that Bregman is not going to hold up. 

a Mayer/Story/Marte/? infield is probably going to add much more value over the next 5 years than a Bregman/Story/Marte/? infield.  

But nobody is saying that all the chips should be thrown in. You're having this conversation with only your own head. Trading Mayer is not throwing everything in. Trading some pitching for Marte is not throwing everything in. This hyperbole is not helping the discussion at all.

We will likely have to move some prospects on as that's the rub, and the time to go for the win is now. What that looks like or whether it should even ultimately be for Marte is harder to work out, but it's certainly not going to be a gutting of the farm.

Bregman came back three weeks early from that injury. Merloni says this a lot. You stay out until you're absolutely ready - you get hammered. You come back early to help the team and so you're not firing on all cylinders - you get hammered. It's more likely after his blistering start that he just got hit by the injury rather than he is already starting to fall off the cliff. But as with everything it's guess work.

Personally, I'd rather we had Bregman and Marte for the next two to three years over any of the options including Mayer at a base. But as I keep saying, I'm not as high on Mayer as others (I mentioned weeks ago that if the plan was to platoon him - trade him now) and he certainly doesn't help with our power problem.

The possibly best situation is he's stored at AAA and is given time to improve his hitting and show he can stay healthy. The issue is, if he can't do those two things we just lost the opportune moment to trade him. 

[Hitch]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Here's another way solidify my position. 

Trading Marcelo Mayer + Kyson WItherspoon for Ketel Marte = No Bueno

Trading Tolle/Abreu and Dorian Soto for Ketel Marte = Mucho Bueno. 

 

 

I don't think Diamondbacks do the second offer. We don't even know they want Mayer, either. There's been some noise around it, but the word on the street seems to be they want starting pitching and a lot of it.