Predicting LT payroll

[Hitch]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

According to Cots, Martes tax hit WAS $19.4 million, which is his contract divided by years.  We know that resets when traded so that would be $103.5/6 (factoring in the player option). which is $17.25 a year. 

Cots is either right or wrong.  THey're a good source, but I think Sox Payroll has a better grasp on Bostons payroll. 

Forget Cots - every journo is reporting it at this number ($14.7m). So either they're all right, or you are. 

We'll soon find out for sure one way or another I guess. 

[UtahSox]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

But we KNOW they Sox won't spend above a certain level.  Trading for Marte and then also signing Bregman or Bo is most likely a pipe dream.  If I thought the Sox would and they did I'd feel much better about it. 

But when is the last time the Sox have spent A.) as much as they'd say the would AND B.) went above the second line (which they have not said they would). 

I am new here, but it seems like most of you guys fall into the same category as I do. I understand we’re not gonna spend with the Yankees and Dodgers year in year out. But I’d like to know that ownership, when it feels like it can win a championship will step right on their own foot, and say “we are all in for a World Series” go right up to that $300 million number that I believe it will take for a year or two. . And your own dumbass is the one that said the window is wide open. So many like myself who had this hope in the back of their mind that when the time was right, we’d spend the money are absolutely out of their minds right now. You just made $900 million dollars on the penguins.

 

Is it too much to ask to just cut your profits in half for a three year run with all this great talent we have assembled? 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Listening to Cotillo and McAdam podcast yesterday… Talking over and over about that 1st threshold, comparing us to the lowest common denominators saying “hey I mean we aren’t the Rays, we will never not spend $200m” it literally raised my blood pressure. 

I could NEVER listen to McAdam on a podcast. It was bad enough listening to him on EEI back in the day. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Forget Cots - every journo is reporting it at this number ($14.7m). So either they're all right, or you are. 

We'll soon find out for sure one way or another I guess. 

I don't see the deferred money listed anywhere online prior to that aside from what is already listed on spotrac or cots.

From mlb.com at the time of signing:

 Marte will receive $14 million this year, $15 million in 2026, $12 million in ‘27, $20 million in ‘28, $22 million in ‘29 and $22 million in ‘30. The player option for ‘31 is for $11.5 million.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I am new here, but it seems like most of you guys fall into the same category as I do. I understand we’re not gonna spend with the Yankees and Dodgers year in year out. But I’d like to know that ownership, when it feels like it can win a championship will step right on their own foot, and say “we are all in for a World Series” go right up to that $300 million number that I believe it will take for a year or two. . And your own dumbass is the one that said the window is wide open. So many like myself who had this hope in the back of their mind that when the time was right, we’d spend the money are absolutely out of their minds right now. You just made $900 million dollars on the penguins.

 

Is it too much to ask to just cut your profits in half for a three year run with all this great talent we have assembled? 

They used to spend towards the top of MLB. At some point in 2019, Henry decided he didn't want to do that anymore. He fired DD and wanted to trade Mookie. 

Now we have people saying we are a midmarket team even though the Sox are THIRD in revenue. 🫣

I than Henry for the 4 WS, but his new way of doing business is not it. It's not how he won the previous 4 WS, it's more like how the prior 86 years went TBH. 

[UtahSox]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I could NEVER listen to McAdam on a podcast. It was bad enough listening to him on EEI back in the day. 

I listen @ 1.8x makes it a little more bearable. Speier and McAdam are my go to when I need a cold shower on my Sox visions of grandeur. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

I listen @ 1.8x makes it a little more bearable. Speier and McAdam are my go to when I need a cold shower on my Sox visions of grandeur. 

Speier is fine. 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

And Casas is your 1B? who....may not even be ready be opening day. 

We need infielders way way way way more than starting pitching.  Grey IS YOUR #2. 

Why can't we just trade for an infielder without trading away Mayer? 

I have predicted Casas in the Brez choice at 1B- it's not "my choice."

I see Gray as the #3 and Bello as the #4. I do NOT think we filled the #2 SP need, but if we get two big bats, I'd be okay with no pitcher additions.

I'm fine trading an OF'er not Mayer, but if we get KMarte and a 3Bman, then Mayer has no slot. If we get a 2B/3B and a 1Bman, then we need Mayer.

[UtahSox]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Speier is fine. 

Agree just seems super plugged into FO. Which is why I associate him with bad news.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

So yet another offseason where they promised big things, pursued big names but came away with little.   I'm getting very tired of this.   

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't agree with this. The prospect list is getting weaker every time Breslow makes another trade. This is the weakest top 20 since before Mayer was drafted IMO. 

I'm fine with your position, but I think we have a 2-3+ year window and need at least 2 more big pieces.

If JH wont pay for both, we have to trade for 1 (or 2.)

I think trading an OF'er makes the most sense (not big prospects) but if we need to include a decnet prospect or two, I'm okay- for the right return.

Brez should sign the second piece, but if JH will not allow it, then I'm for trading prospects for it- an not one year players.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with your position, but I think we have a 2-3+ year window and need at least 2 more big pieces.

If JH wont pay for both, we have to trade for 1 (or 2.)

I think trading an OF'er makes the most sense (not big prospects) but if we need to include a decnet prospect or two, I'm okay- for the right return.

Brez should sign the second piece, but if JH will not allow it, then I'm for trading prospects for it- an not one year players.

Crochet is here for 5 more years.

Roman is here for 8 more years. 

It's a big window.

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Second line: 2018

I don't remember what happened that year... Can someone remind me?

Yes but this is the post 2018 world.  Something happened to John Henry and I'm not sure he's ever coming back. 

Please come back. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochet is here for 5 more years.

Roman is here for 8 more years. 

It's a big window.

It can be 5+ years, but I said 2-3+ (the plus is key.)

Duran & Crawford 3 years

Oviedo 2

Chapman & Gray 1-2

Whitlock 1 (Houck 1 in 2027)

We do lose Masa and Hicks and their money after 2, so we should be able to replace the good players, in kind, but until we do, I see the window as 2-3, for now.

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Forget Cots - every journo is reporting it at this number ($14.7m). So either they're all right, or you are. 

We'll soon find out for sure one way or another I guess. 

I think the $14.7 million number is right, so techinically I'm right too. 

But I do also believe the Sox Payroll site over cots. 

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with your position, but I think we have a 2-3+ year window and need at least 2 more big pieces.

If JH wont pay for both, we have to trade for 1 (or 2.)

I think trading an OF'er makes the most sense (not big prospects) but if we need to include a decnet prospect or two, I'm okay- for the right return.

Brez should sign the second piece, but if JH will not allow it, then I'm for trading prospects for it- an not one year players.

See, I hate this window talk. 

We are the Boston Effing Red Sox, there should be no window. Maybe there are windows where we are better but our down cycles should be 88-92 wins not last place finishes. 

When is the last time the NY Yankees had a losing record?

The window is always open. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

See, I hate this window talk. 

We are the Boston Effing Red Sox, there should be no window. Maybe there are windows where we are better but our down cycles should be 88-92 wins not last place finishes. 

When is the last time the NY Yankees had a losing record?

The window is always open. 

In theory, yes. I agree, but JH's MO has been spending in cycles.

I'm not going to deny the reality over hopes JH changes his MO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

See, I hate this window talk. 

We are the Boston Effing Red Sox, there should be no window. Maybe there are windows where we are better but our down cycles should be 88-92 wins not last place finishes. 

When is the last time the NY Yankees had a losing record?

The window is always open. 

There's no window in the Bronx; it's a barn door -- no, a three-car garage, 3 doors up -- wait, an airplane hangar, doorless, wide open... everything just got stolen.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In theory, yes. I agree, but JH's MO has been spending in cycles.

I'm not going to deny the reality over hopes JH changes his MO.

So what's the 20-25 cycle then? The throw your hands up it the air and try to beat the market cycle? 

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes but this is the post 2018 world.  Something happened to John Henry and I'm not sure he's ever coming back. 

Please come back. 

Cora should have never rested the starters in April 2019. It sent the org into a tailspin. 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think the $14.7 million number is right, so techinically I'm right too. 

But I do also believe the Sox Payroll site over cots. 

What's the math on the 14.7? 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

What's the math on the 14.7? 

deffered money is factored into the equation.  It most be discounted back at some interest rate and only the NPV counts towards the LT.  I'm still not entirely sure who's right Google says the number is between 14.7 and 17.25

I think for all intents and purposes of what the Sox will do next those numbers are effectively the same. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

So what's the 20-25 cycle then? The throw your hands up it the air and try to beat the market cycle? 

I did not think it would be 6 years. I also said 2020-2024, as I thought the 2019 should have been competitive, despite not replacing K & K. I could have said 2022-2024 and been more on target, as that was when we dropped from the the top 3 spending teams.

The Betts trade can be viewed as the start of the cliff, and we should not have done that well in 2021, but 2022-2024 might be a better call as we were also a top 3 spending team in '21.

Some of us saw a day of reckoning coming. We did not think the prospects DD kept would do as good as they ended up doing, but they still did not do enough to make us competitive from 2022-2024.

We saw huge contracts and young stars reaching the point where they'd need to be paid.

We saw some guys aging. We knew we'd need to replace them at a high cost and we likely would not. What am i clinging to that is wrong?

We never replaced K & K from 2019, Betts & Price , Porcello, JD, then later Bogey and others.

The excuses why we did not don't matter. We expected it to happen and it did.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the math on the 14.7? 

I think he said differed money.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I think the $14.7 million number is right, so techinically I'm right too. 

But I do also believe the Sox Payroll site over cots. 

Regardless, the money is there to spend on a second bat if they want to. 

Whether they want to is another thing.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

What power Bat are you going to add on top of $241 million that will keep the Sox below the second luxury tax threshold??????

Contreras?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Contreras?

If we traded Duran and Crawford for KMarte, the balance added would not put us over the first tax line.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Regardless, the money is there to spend on a second bat if they want to. 

Whether they want to is another thing.

Yes, the second bat is the one that would put us too far over the tax line for JH to approve, unless it's a trade for Y Diaz or someone like him.

Hicks and Casas for Contreras?

Masa, cash and Casas for Contreras?

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

If we traded Duran and Crawford for KMarte, the balance added would not put us over the first tax line.

And unfortunately, unlikely to get it done. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hitch said:

And unfortunately, unlikely to get it done. 

I'd add a decent prospect but not Tolle/Early or Fajardo/Valera to that package, but maybe Sandlin/Mullins/Dobbins/Drohan/Uberstine types.

I'd also give Duran and Harrison or Mayer & Sandlin for KMarte.