A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We are almost the same, now. Add Suarez and we are the same or better. Add Suarez and a decent LH'd RP'er and we're better. Not significantly better, as we all hoped, but IMO- better.

how are possibly the same??

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

how are possibly the same??

Green on Friday nights, yellow on Saturdays, white on Sundays?

[Randy Red Sox]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Green on Friday nights, yellow on Saturdays, white on Sundays?

lol

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Green on Friday nights, yellow on Saturdays, white on Sundays?

Excellent idea!! Love it 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

how are possibly the same??

How are we possible a push at the 6 slots you said we were, at the same time last year?

I'm using your methodology but correctly....

C: Better

1B: Better

2B: Push  (ROMY>KC, but DHam'25>DHam '26))

SS: Better

3B: WAY WORSE

LF: Better

CF: Better

RF: Push

DH: WAY WORSE

SP1: WAY BETTER

SP2: Push or better as Houck was a concern

SP3: BETTER (Bello looks better now than before '25)

SP4-8: Push

Closer: WAY BETTER

Set-up 1: WAY BETTER (Whitlock was huge question last winter)

Set-up 2: Push  (Slaten)

Pen depth: WORSE

9 better

9 push

3 worse (2 way worse)

 

[Randy Red Sox]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How are we possible a push at the 6 slots you said we were, at the same time last year?

I'm using your methodology but correctly....

C: Better

1B: Better

2B: Push  (ROMY>KC, but DHam'25>DHam '26))

SS: Better

3B: WAY WORSE

LF: Better

CF: Better

RF: Push

DH: WAY WORSE

SP1: WAY BETTER

SP2: Push or better as Houck was a concern

SP3: BETTER (Bello looks better now than before '25)

SP4-8: Push

Closer: WAY BETTER

Set-up 1: WAY BETTER (Whitlock was huge question last winter)

Set-up 2: Push  (Slaten)

Pen depth: WORSE

9 better

9 push

3 worse (2 way worse)

 

i don't get your logic at all and will only respond how are better at C?  CV regressed badly in the 2nd half after a strong start and Wong is still our backup.  As for SS we still have the same guy who finally had a decent yr. Do you suddenly expect him to improve given his age??  And you expect Chapman to be better than he was closing than last yr??  Sorry your logic doesn't wash with me. I could care less how we started 2025 only how we compare today with how we finished 2025.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't get your logic at all and will only respond how are better at C?  CV regressed badly in the 2nd half after a strong start and Wong is still our backup.  As for SS we still have the same guy who finally had a decent yr. Do you suddenly expect him to improve given his age??  And you expect Chapman to be better than he was closing than last yr??  Sorry your logic doesn't wash with me. I could care less how we started 2025 only how we compare today with how we finished 2025.

Your methodology was to view how we saw positions last winter vs this winter. How can you possibly view Narvaez as not better? Based on a drop off from mid July to mid August. He was at .719 on AUG 28th and .726 to end the season.

I 100% see our catcher position in a way better light than I did in winter 2025. Most of us saw the underlining data on Wong and saw his 2024 offense as being unsustainable. We also saw his defense as highly suspect. Now his defense looks way better, and his offense worse, but he's the back up. Narvaez looks very good on D and better than Wong.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

No way Story March 2025 is equal to March 2026. Not even close!

No way we viewed Gio highly in March 2025.

Bello just had his best year ever, and you like him the same as March 2025? 

Rafaela showed vast improvement on his K and BB rates. This is not even close to a push.

We had no idea how good Narvaez was, either. Almost nobody liked Wong as the #1. I feel way better about our catchers, now. Sorry, but you are way off on these five guys.

I feel way better about Anthony, now than I ever felt about Duran. He's our best player, now. That's six.

I view Romy 10 times better than last spring, but we lost Ref, so call that a push, at worst.

I counted on zero from Sandoval for 2025. He can't be viewed as a push, now.

Our 26 man roster is very close to how I viewed the 2025 roster in March. The Devers and Bregman losses are huge. They might count as two losses each. Those 2 slots and maybe the pen are the only losses.

C, 1B, SS, LF, CF, RF, SP1, SP3, Closer, Set-up1, Set up2 are all better looking now than last winter.

2B, SP2, Sp4, SP5, SP6-8 are pushes.

3B, DH and pen depth are worse.

Maybe I'm wrong saying we are close to as good as 2025, on paper, even counting Devers and Bregman as 4 losses.

We have a lot of wildcards we did not have in 2025. Sure, we had KC and to some extent Anthony and Mayer, and KC & Mayer have not gained any higher wild card status after 2025, but Anthony, Tolle, Early, Rafaela are better wildcards. Hopes for Bello, Abreu, Sandoval, and Chapman, Whitlock and others look better. Adding Gray, Contreras and Oviedo outshine who we traded away.

 

I’ll address all 5

Story always could play… injury risk is still there. And a year older. Push 

Oviedo has thrown 40 ip in 2 years and has never had the success that Gio had pre injury. 2025. 

Bello and Rafaela post all star break? Rafaela was not great…. I’m not anymore confident in 2026 than I was 2025.

Narvaez knee problems make me think he will be limited.  Push… 

We also had two of the top 10 prospects in minor leagues coming up last year. This year we don’t have any. I’m sorry I just think you’re coping on this. There is no way this is a better team than last year. 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm a big believer in the Vegas people, personally.

As of now the Vegas over/under on Red Sox 2026 wins is 87.5.  Seems perfectly reasonable.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

  Sorry your logic doesn't wash with me. I could care less how we started 2025 only how we compare today with how we finished 2025.

Sorry. I confused you with Utah's post. My bad.

For all the talk about how Narvaez ended 2025, his OPS after mid AUG was still higher than the 2025 catcher OPS of .723.

While Wong sucked, his OPS before 7/30 was .392 and after was .635. His defense looked way better in '25 than '24, and Narvaez was very good on D.

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sorry. I confused you with Utah's post. My bad.

For all the talk about how Narvaez ended 2025, his OPS after mid AUG was still higher than the 2025 catcher OPS of .723.

While Wong sucked, his OPS before 7/30 was .392 and after was .635. His defense looked way better in '25 than '24, and Narvaez was very good on D.

Remember narveaz played in a bad knee that needed surgery. His surgery is keeping him out of the wbc!!  Plus that kid wore down because wong was also injured and needed surgery 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I’ll address all 5

Story always could play… injury risk is still there. And a year older. Push 

Oviedo has thrown 40 ip in 2 years and has never had the success that Gio had pre injury. 2025. 

Bello and Rafaela post all star break? Rafaela was not great…. I’m not anymore confident in 2026 than I was 2025.

Narvaez knee problems make me think he will be limited.  Push… 

We also had two of the top 10 prospects in minor leagues coming up last year. This year we don’t have any. I’m sorry I just think you’re coping on this. There is no way this is a better team than last year. 

I'm not sure why you value post all star break so highly, but that's your choice. Why not apply the post allstar numbers to Houck? (4.23 ERA/4.53 FIP) 

How about Bello? 3.43 game 16> '25 and 3.83 post gm 16 in '24? You are selectively using second half stats.

Narvaez ended the season doing better than the 2025 Sox catcher numbers.

Okay with Gio>Oviedo, but Crawford was worse in '24 than '23. (ERA+ 113>95)

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm a big believer in the Vegas people, personally.

As of now the Vegas over/under on Red Sox 2026 wins is 87.5.  Seems perfectly reasonable.

Which is very near even to 2025.

Add Suarez (projected 2.3 fWAR) and maybe a pitcher and we'll be projected at 89 wins or more.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Story always could play… injury risk is still there. And a year older. Push 

You really feel the same about Story as last winter?

Wow.

Even if you view the injury risk as the same, nobody thought he'd regain that production level.

[Randy Red Sox]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Your methodology was to view how we saw positions last winter vs this winter. How can you possibly view Narvaez as not better? Based on a drop off from mid July to mid August. He was at .719 on AUG 28th and .726 to end the season.

I 100% see our catcher position in a way better light than I did in winter 2025. Most of us saw the underlining data on Wong and saw his 2024 offense as being unsustainable. We also saw his defense as highly suspect. Now his defense looks way better, and his offense worse, but he's the back up. Narvaez looks very good on D and better than Wong.

just my little knowledge I would consider our C as mid level in MLB at best

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

just my little knowledge I would consider our C as mid level in MLB at best

Me, too.

I consider it bottom 3rd in 2024.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

how are possibly the same??

The following chart shows the actual 2025 data by position, followed by the 2026 FG projections.  This assumes Romy at 2B, Mayer at 3B, and RA at DH.  This doesn't weigh anything.  Obviously loading the lineup by OPS will increase the OPS and injuries will lower OPS.  IRT to injuries, my assumption, not reflected in the numbers, is that any OF injuries will mean Yoshida's numbers would replace the injured OF's numbers.  Make of it what you will.

	2025	2026
s C	0.653	0.702
as 1B	0.691	0.787
as 2B	0.670	0.756
as 3B	0.777	0.724
as SS	0.736	0.712
as LF	0.781	0.761
as CF	0.774	0.723
as RF	0.822	0.788
as DH	0.823	0.802
	0.747	0.751

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You really feel the same about Story as last winter?

Wow.

Even if you view the injury risk as the same, nobody thought he'd regain that production level.

I’ve always thought he was a great player. Just health questions.
Admittedly I (used to) see a lot of Rockies stuff out here. Before they completely cratered as an organization. 

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm a big believer in the Vegas people, personally.

As of now the Vegas over/under on Red Sox 2026 wins is 87.5.  Seems perfectly reasonable.

Always follow the money.  I think Buffet said it best when he said the difference between a conversation and a commitment is a check.  Same with the RS payroll.  Same with the under/over.  Just follow the money.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

I’ve always thought he was a great player. Just health questions.
Admittedly I (used to) see a lot of Rockies stuff out here. Before they completely cratered as an organization. 

There were serious doubt that even if Story was healthy, could he hit over .700? Could he hit over 20 HRs outside of COL? Could he ever steal 20+ bases again?

That part of the concern has improved. The injury part, maybe not. I do feel safe now than last winter on that front, too.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Always follow the money.  I think Buffet said it best when he said the difference between a conversation and a commitment is a check.  Same with the RS payroll.  Same with the under/over.  Just follow the money.

Some context is needed on Vegas. They don't set the odds by actual projections. They set them on striving for half the people betting over and half betting under.

[moonslav59]

A lot depends on how healthy our projected starters and top subs stay, but here is a summary of 2025 vs 2026 by position:

2025 OPS

.653 Catcher (Narvaez was way over this and Wong was way under. I think Wong does better and Narvaez probably regresses a little, but he could also improve.) I don't think near .700 and a 50 point game is unrealistic. +50

.691 1B: While Lowe ended up at .790, and Romy did well, the rest sucked. Expecting Contreras to his near .790 is about right. +100

.670 2B: I'm going with Romy/DHam here (Mayer at 3B) for now. So much is unknown, I'll call it a push. +0

.736 SS: Story was Buttah! I'll go with some regression due to age and health concerns. .711 seems okay. -25

,777 3B: Mayer vs Bregman. I'll go conservative on Mayer and say .677 and -100.

.781 LF: Anthony over Duran, who I'm putting at DH. .806 and +25 seems more than fair.

.774 CF: I'm expecting regression from Rafaela. .749 and -25

.822 RF: I like Abreu's bat. Maybe Anthony plays some RF, when Duran plays LF. I'll go high here and say a push. +0

.823 DH: With Devers, Ref and other sharing time here, I have Duran as our 2026 DH. I think he hits better than 2025 but worse than 2026. That's about .798 and -25.

This comes out exactly even, but the positions who should get more PAs are LF (Anthony) 1B (Contreras) and maybe DH (Duran). That might get us to plus.

I don't think I'm being a homer on that.

SP:

Crochet=Crochet

Gray > Gio 26 GS/ Houck 9 GS

Bello = Bello 28 GS

Oviedo > Buehler 22 GS

Sandoval/Crawford/Harrison/Tolle/Early =???= Dobbins 11 GS, Fitts 10 GS, DMay+Newcomb 10 GS combined

Chapman <= Chapman (likely some regression)

Whitlock & Slaten= Whitlock & Slaten

2026 Pen depth< 2025 pen depth

[moonslav59]

Duran, Yoshida + $18M

for

Lodolo

The AAV saves us about $12M (Lodolo has 1 arb left after '26)

Maybe that's enough money saved to afford Suarez.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran, Yoshida + $18M

for

Lodolo

The AAV saves us about $12M (Lodolo has 1 arb left after '26)

Maybe that's enough money saved to afford Suarez.

after trading Devers and losing Bregman it is just hard to believe we have to trade/dump Duran and Yoshida to afford Suarez.  Pathetic actually.  Let's start a go fund me page for JH so he can eat tomorrow.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

after trading Devers and losing Bregman it is just hard to believe we have to trade/dump Duran and Yoshida to afford Suarez.  Pathetic actually.  Let's start a go fund me page for JH so he can eat tomorrow.

Id trade Duran for Lodlo straight up. Finding a way to dump half of Yoshida has been my 2 year quest.

I want Casas/Campbell/Romy to DH. Take the Masa choice away from Cora, and it might happen.

(BTW, I think Cincy says no, even if we pay $24M.)

[a700hitter]

If there are no other bats added, the 26 offense will have a difficulty time producing runs.  They have zero major offensive weapons.  Maybe Anthony will turn out to be a big stick, but that’s a lot to put on his shoulders for 2026.

[Larry Cook]

8 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

If there are no other bats added, the 26 offense will have a difficulty time producing runs.  They have zero major offensive weapons.  Maybe Anthony will turn out to be a big stick, but that’s a lot to put on his shoulders for 2026.

I think that Cora uses at least 125 different lineups in 2026 and at the end of the year everybody contributes, but Anthony, Mayer and Duran carry this team to the playoffs!! And story, Contreras, yoshida, abreau and Wong have decent supporting numbers 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, a700hitter said:

If there are no other bats added, the 26 offense will have a difficulty time producing runs.  They have zero major offensive weapons.  Maybe Anthony will turn out to be a big stick, but that’s a lot to put on his shoulders for 2026.

The Big Three's 2025 K-rate: Campbell 27.4%, Anthony 27.7%, Mayer 30.1%.

Those were the three worst strikeout men on the team. We can only hope our young learners will improve.

On the free agent market, Bregman and his 14.1% K-rate are gone. Bichette fanned 14.5% last year.

Geno Suarez, whiffed 29.8% last year, and in 12 MLB seasons has Ked 27.4% overall... in 6,627 Plate Appearances. 

For baseball CBOs and GMs, you get what you pay for... but maybe not so much for Red Sox fans buying tickets to Fenway Park and subscriptions to NESN.

 

[notin]

17 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Green on Friday nights, yellow on Saturdays, white on Sundays?

Laundry on Mondays?

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Which is very near even to 2025.

Add Suarez (projected 2.3 fWAR) and maybe a pitcher and we'll be projected at 89 wins or more.

Suarez is an awful fielder and k's too much. The only good thing is that he likes pulling the ball. Maybe he's a guy that gets hot for a month or two. Not sure I'd want him for more than a year.