A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

swap Abreu for Duran and it's a done deal.

I'd do it. I like the extra year of Wilyer, his defense, and his power more than Duran. His age, too.

I'd prefer it be Duran, but I'd give RF to Anthony, in order to get Lodolo & McLain.

[moonslav59]

Looks like the Cubs are bidding on Bellinger and forced the Yanks to make a counter offer.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/1/2026 at 4:06 PM, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but the point was we have better depth than almost every other team, AND our top 3 match up pretty well with almost every other team.

Out top 3 seem pretty reliable, when compared to TOR and NYY, but yes, anything can happen.

Last year, we lost #2 Houck, and arguably our #4 Crawford & #5 Sandoval for just about the full season. Later, we lost Dobbins and in the playoffs we lost just about everyone not named Crochet.

what is with all this love for Sandoval??  guy hasn't thrown a pitch for us and some have him as our #3 or 4 and here you are saying we lost our #5 last yr when it was already expected he would all or almost all of 2025

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

what is with all this love for Sandoval??  guy hasn't thrown a pitch for us and some have him as our #3 or 4 and here you are saying we lost our #5 last yr when it was already expected he would all or almost all of 2025

I'm not loving Sandoval. He was a really good pitcher a few years back, as was Crawford. He may come back: he may not. We've had horrible luck on pitchers returning from injury. 

Why all the love for Cole? Rodon starts the year on the IL, but somehow Yankess injuries are different?

TOR has Bieber who was last good when Sandy was.

Sandy was expected to come back and maybe be our 4/5, last year. Perhaps I mispoke.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not loving Sandoval. He was a really good pitcher a few years back, as was Crawford. He may come back: he may not. We've had horrible luck on pitchers returning from injury. 

Why all the love for Cole? Rodon starts the year on the IL, but somehow Yankess injuries are different?

TOR has Bieber who was last good when Sandy was.

Sandy was expected to come back and maybe be our 4/5, last year. Perhaps I mispoke.

when did I say anything about the NYY P?   Saying that though Cole before his injury was a far better P than Sandavol ever was. Also IMO Crawford is a reasonably low bar to compare to. i think his RELATIVE success was due at least in part to his unique short arm delivery.

Nonetheless overall I think our rotation is in decent shape  If we go into the season as we are now I think we win 87-90 games. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Randy Red Sox said:

when did I say anything about the NYY P?  

Sorry, My bad. I mixed you up with another poster.

I happen to think Sandoval has promise. He was pretty good for 2 seasons.

If he doesn't do well, maybe Crawford can pitch like 2023.

If he doesn't do well, maybe the promise Harrison once had comes to fruition.

If he sucks, we still have Tolle & Early.

Let's hope we don't see 3-4 guys suck as we trial and error it to find the 4th or 5th guy that does well. We might be out of it by then.

I think we have a solid 1-2-3 rotation. Our 4-5 are sketchy, and other teams have better 4s and 5s. I think our 6-9 SP'ers beat out almost every other team, and most teams need to go 8-9 deep or more, so maybe we gain there.

fangraphs has our pitching ranked #2. I don't think I'm being a homer thinking our staff is pretty solid and deep.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

 Saying that though Cole before his injury was a far better P than Sandavol ever was. Also IMO Crawford is a reasonably low bar to compare to. i think his RELATIVE success was due at least in part to his unique short arm delivery.

Nonetheless overall I think our rotation is in decent shape  If we go into the season as we are now I think we win 87-90 games. 

I thought I was saying the last time Beiber was any good was when Sandoval was. Of course, Cole and Rodon have shown they can be way better than Sandoval ever was- and Crawford, too.

Speaking of last years these pitchers had big seasons.... Last 5 years

3.5+ fWAR seasons (BOLD=2022>)

6.2 Rodon '22, 5.0 '21

5.8 Crochet '25, 4.6 Crochet '24

5.5 Gausman '22, 5.3 '23, 4.8 '21, 4.1 '25

5.4 Gray '23. 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25

5.3 Cole '23, 5.2 '21

4.7 Bieber '22

4.5 Cease '21, 4.4 '22, 3.6 '23

3.7 Sandoval '22

 

How about last 3 years only 3.7 or better:

 

5.8 Crochet '25, 4.6 Crochet '24

5.3 Gausman '22, 4.1 '25

5.4 Gray '23. 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25

5.3 Cole '23

 

 

[mvp 78]

I thought the only reason Sandoval was projected to be in the rotation was because of his MLB guaranteed contract. If I had to power rank the arms, he wouldn't be in the top 5. He probably gets the first crack at a rotation spot because other arms have MiLB options though. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I thought the only reason Sandoval was projected to be in the rotation was because of his MLB guaranteed contract. If I had to power rank the arms, he wouldn't be in the top 5. He probably gets the first crack at a rotation spot because other arms have MiLB options though. 

The thing about Sandoval is the Red Sox signed him.  They signed him two offseasons ago with the knowledge at the time that it was going to be all about the 2026 season.  There might of been some hope that he possibly could contribute in the bullpen at the end of 2025 but for the most part, it was about 2026. 

We don't with any real clarity or precision how teams internally evaluate players.  We don't fully know what the Sox liked about or saw in Sandoval, except that they did.  People love to reference what Patrick has done, but that doesn't illustrate what the Sox think he is. 

Do they think he can take a step forward with them? do they think they can tinker with his arsenal? Do they think he's a #5 or a guy who if they can do what they hope to do with him is a #2? 

Now, things can change, maybe they don't like what theyv'e seen in his rehab, and hearts change over time perhaps they roll into 2026 thinking they have 5 legit better options than him. 

But penciling Sandoval into the 2026 rotation has always made complete absolute sense to me, and I say that as someone who wouldn't be completely shocked if he's not one of their main 5 starting pitchers in 2026 either. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Now, things can change, maybe they don't like what theyv'e seen in his rehab, and hearts change over time perhaps they roll into 2026 thinking they have 5 legit better options than him. 

I think this is the only question that remains. Maybe the surgery or rehab didn't go well? Maybe they now have options that are even better than pre-TJS Sandoval. If so, they may be able to deal Sandoval and save some money towards the cap.

[moonslav59]

Sandoval's non return to action in 2025 is very concerning. He will not be handed a rotation slot, if he has health issues or is not doing well in ST'ing.

When I slot him as our #4, I usually state that this is assuming everyone, including Crawford and Dobbins, at the time are at 100%. That's a big qualifier- I know.

The Sox gave him almost $18M. They must think he's good enough for the 4/5 slot, if healthy. You don't earn a 3.7fWAR in under 150 IP by being lucky. (Sandoval in 2022.) He was top 40 in fWAR from 2021-2022 (200+ IP) at 5.4. He remained top 40 when you include 2023 (350+ IP) with a 7.7 fWAR. Int hose 3 years, only 36 pitchers pitched more IP and had a higher fWAR. His 5.7 bWAR is not as impressive, but it's still good enough to make our 5 man rotation, if he can return to that form.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sandoval's non return to action in 2025 is very concerning. He will not be handed a rotation slot, if he has health issues or is not doing well in ST'ing.

When I slot him as our #4, I usually state that this is assuming everyone, including Crawford and Dobbins, at the time are at 100%. That's a big qualifier- I know.

The Sox gave him almost $18M. They must think he's good enough for the 4/5 slot, if healthy. You don't earn a 3.7fWAR in under 150 IP by being lucky. (Sandoval in 2022.) He was top 40 in fWAR from 2021-2022 (200+ IP) at 5.4. He remained top 40 when you include 2023 (350+ IP) with a 7.7 fWAR. Int hose 3 years, only 36 pitchers pitched more IP and had a higher fWAR. His 5.7 bWAR is not as impressive, but it's still good enough to make our 5 man rotation, if he can return to that form.

Dobbins was traded.

 

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sandoval's non return to action in 2025 is very concerning. He will not be handed a rotation slot, if he has health issues or is not doing well in ST'ing.

When I slot him as our #4, I usually state that this is assuming everyone, including Crawford and Dobbins, at the time are at 100%. That's a big qualifier- I know.

The Sox gave him almost $18M. They must think he's good enough for the 4/5 slot, if healthy. You don't earn a 3.7fWAR in under 150 IP by being lucky. (Sandoval in 2022.) He was top 40 in fWAR from 2021-2022 (200+ IP) at 5.4. He remained top 40 when you include 2023 (350+ IP) with a 7.7 fWAR. Int hose 3 years, only 36 pitchers pitched more IP and had a higher fWAR. His 5.7 bWAR is not as impressive, but it's still good enough to make our 5 man rotation, if he can return to that form.

To me he’s just another of these special projects the Red Sox like to pay a pitcher to rehab for a year, and hopefully get something out of him the next year $18M, or not. From what I can see he’s been nothing, but a career loser, and not just in a small way. I’m not expecting much to nothing at all from him.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He was top 40 in fWAR from 2021-2022 (200+ IP) at 5.4. He remained top 40 when you include 2023 (350+ IP) with a 7.7 fWAR. Int hose 3 years, only 36 pitchers pitched more IP and had a higher fWAR. His 5.7 bWAR is not as impressive, but it's still good enough to make our 5 man rotation, if he can return to that form.

He was 54th in fWAR in '23 (2.3). Good, not great. Kutter Crawford/Taijuan Walker were at 2.4.

7.96 k/9

4.6 bb/9 (124th in the league) 

4.11 ERA

4.61 xFIP

It's hard to really put too much stock in his '22 season. Sox took a risk on Sandoval. Saying "well, they believe it will work out because of 18M" isn't saying much to me. They paid 21M to Bueller and DFA'd him during the season. Sandoval is basically at Bueller 2024 comeback power level. It's going to be rocky. For a guy who has a history of walking a lot of guys, I think it was a bad move. I'm not sure there is enough upside to keep him on the roster.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He was 54th in fWAR in '23 (2.3). Good, not great. Kutter Crawford/Taijuan Walker were at 2.4.

7.96 k/9

4.6 bb/9 (124th in the league) 

4.11 ERA

4.61 xFIP

It's hard to really put too much stock in his '22 season. Sox took a risk on Sandoval. Saying "well, they believe it will work out because of 18M" isn't saying much to me. They paid 21M to Bueller and DFA'd him during the season. Sandoval is basically at Bueller 2024 comeback power level. It's going to be rocky. For a guy who has a history of walking a lot of guys, I think it was a bad move. I'm not sure there is enough upside to keep him on the roster.

He’s not even a Paxton.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

He’s not even a Paxton.

Agreed. Sandoval has a history of at least staying on the field and providing value. The Sox falling in love with Big Maple was an odd fascination. At least the prospect they traded for him only OPS'd 524 in the complex league last year. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dobbins was traded.

 

Yes, that's why I said "Dobbins, at the time," as in when he was still part of the rotation discussion, injury and all.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Old Red said:

To me he’s just another of these special projects the Red Sox like to pay a pitcher to rehab for a year, and hopefully get something out of him the next year $18M, or not. From what I can see he’s been nothing, but a career loser, and not just in a small way. I’m not expecting much to nothing at all from him.

Those "special projects" are not the way I'd spend the money, for sure. We are like O for 15, now.

He's not much different than Kluber, who was a Cy Young winner a few years before we signed him. He's not much different from Richards who was a fine pitcher years before. Paxton, too.

The only difference, and it may not matter is this...

Kluber was 37.

Richards was 33-34.

Paxton was 34 & 35.

Sandoval was 28, last season and will be 29, this season.

Again, my placement of Sandoval as our #4, and I'd be fine with Oviedo #4 and Sandoval #5, is based on a highly dubious assumption that all our pitchers are 100% healthy. He may end up our 9th starter or never start one game for us. I fully understand that.

When he's healthy, he's shown he can pitch very well for long stretches, unlike many others in consideration for those 4 and 5 slots. Who else has proven they can go 24+ MLB starts and put up very nice numbers?

1. Crochet

2. Gray

3. Bello

4. Sandoval

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure age matters to me if all your getting is one rehab year. Maybe it'd be different if there was a club option for 2027 or something that provided future value to the Sox. Pitchers coming off TJS don't always hit the ground running. Maybe Breslow will stop making these deals. They haven't helped the cash position by adding these guys that's for sure. 

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we have a solid 1-2-3 rotation. Our 4-5 are sketchy, and other teams have better 4s and 5s.

On paper, we're better than the NYY and TO at the #1, #1-2, #1-3, all the way out.  Last year, our 1-3 were great.  Our 4-5-6-7-8 wavered from bad to awful.  Not everyone will work out, but my bet is that our #4>>> will be 5 games better than 2025.

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Those "special projects" are not the way I'd spend the money, for sure. We are like O for 15, now.

He's not much different than Kluber, who was a Cy Young winner a few years before we signed him. He's not much different from Richards who was a fine pitcher years before. Paxton, too.

The only difference, and it may not matter is this...

Kluber was 37.

Richards was 33-34.

Paxton was 34 & 35.

Sandoval was 28, last season and will be 29, this season.

Again, my placement of Sandoval as our #4, and I'd be fine with Oviedo #4 and Sandoval #5, is based on a highly dubious assumption that all our pitchers are 100% healthy. He may end up our 9th starter or never start one game for us. I fully understand that.

When he's healthy, he's shown he can pitch very well for long stretches, unlike many others in consideration for those 4 and 5 slots. Who else has proven they can go 24+ MLB starts and put up very nice numbers?

1. Crochet

2. Gray

3. Bello

4. Sandoval

No I don’t think the age matters much, or if all. The guys you mentioned were better pitchers than Sandoval. You keep saying he’s proven he can pitch very well for long stretches, and I just don’t see that at all. Very nice numbers?🤭

 

 

[JoeBrady]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When he's healthy, he's shown he can pitch very well for long stretches,

I'm not a Sandoval fan, but folks are under-estimating his numbers.  From 2021-2024, including his injury numbers, he had a 3.80 ERA, and Fenway-favorite 0.8 HR/9.  I'm not sure he will even make the rotation out of ST.  But he could also easily be a #4 SP.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not a Sandoval fan, but folks are under-estimating his numbers.  From 2021-2024, including his injury numbers, he had a 3.80 ERA, and Fenway-favorite 0.8 HR/9.  I'm not sure he will even make the rotation out of ST.  But he could also easily be a #4 SP.

My worry from that same stretch:

4.08 bb/9 255th in MLB for starters above 100 IP (out of 279)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

On paper, we're better than the NYY and TO at the #1, #1-2, #1-3, all the way out.  Last year, our 1-3 were great.  Our 4-5-6-7-8 wavered from bad to awful.  Not everyone will work out, but my bet is that our #4>>> will be 5 games better than 2025.

Actually, Houck was our #2. Buehler might have been our 3 or 4.

I think we might have wanted: 1. Crochet, 2. Houck, 3. Buehler 4/5 Bello/Gio, 6. Crawford.

Our 2-3 sucked. Our 4/5 carried us. Dobbins and a couple other depth guys helped, too.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

He’s not even a Paxton.

Jamex Paxton or Paxton Crawford?

[Larry Cook]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We'd also have Oviedo, Crawford, Houck, Bennett and Holobetz in the 2027 mix.

I doubt SFG says yes, too.

Wouldn’t the earliest houck could return is around June 27? 
 

 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Wouldn’t the earliest houck could return is around June 27? 
 

 

And it wouldn't look pretty either. 

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Wouldn’t the earliest houck could return is around June 27? 
 

 

That might be the early projection for when he could start throwing off a mound again this year but he probably wouldn't be ready for games until a few more months after that.  If he's going to return to form or possibly even get better, I wouldn't expect him to be that guy until sometime around 2027/28, 

The next 2/year project pitcher contract guy might be in our very own back yard. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Wouldn’t the earliest houck could return is around June 27? 
 

 

Not sure. 1.5 years from AUG '25 surgery is FEB '27.

Knowing our luck, JUN '27 might be pushing it.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

And it wouldn't look pretty either. 

The question is, does he get the pitch movement back after the surgery? 
if yes, he was a decent pitcher. 
if no, there is always the bullpen.