A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Bello much more as our #4 than our #3.

With Wildman Craig Breslow landing Suarez, I'd be far more willing to trade Bello.  There is a reasonable chance that a combination of Sandoval, Oviedo, Early or Tolle could provide value similar to Bello.  While it feels like Bello should get slightly more than Paredes, I think it's pretty close, and the fit is great.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Saw him a lot, too, during his brief stay in Chicago.

Dead pull hitter.  Has really good power when he pulls the ball.

I thought his defense was nothing special.  Hes not bad or anything.  Just didn’t excel.

Awful, awful haircut…

that haircut is enough for me to not want him.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Vientos is least likely because he's a terrible defender. 

That's why he's cheaper and MORE likely.

[moonslav59]

Fangraph's 2026 Pitching Projections:

22.1 BOS

21.9 LAD

20.2 PHI

19.1 DET

18.6 TOR

18.1 ATL

17.1 SEA

16.8 KCR

11th: NYY at 16.3

BAT (and D)

29.8 NYY

29.2 LAD

29.1 BAL

28.6 NYM

28.1 TOR & ATL

21st: BOS  21.9

Overall, the Sox are 6th (1 behind SEA, 2.1 behind NYY & ATL and 2.7 behind TOR.

I think, if we signed E Suarez and NYY & SEA do nothing (unlikely) we'd pass both for 4th place.

[moonslav59]

Top ALE Rotations:

18.2 BOS (5.7 Crochet, 3.9 Gray, 3.3 Suarez, 1.9 Bello, 1.2 Oviedo) 6-9= 2.1

15.1 TOR (3.8 Cease, 2.8 Gausman, 2.5 Bieber, 2.1 Yesavage, 2.1 Ponce) 6-9= 1.8

13.3 NYY (3.6 Fried, 2.2 Rodon, 1.9 Cole, 1.6 Schlitter, 1.4 Warren) 6-9=2.4

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

With Wildman Craig Breslow landing Suarez, I'd be far more willing to trade Bello.  There is a reasonable chance that a combination of Sandoval, Oviedo, Early or Tolle could provide value similar to Bello.  While it feels like Bello should get slightly more than Paredes, I think it's pretty close, and the fit is great.

Bello (or Sandoval if there's a market) seem quite likely to go now. They will want to shed a little salary while still getting their bat for the infield. 

Horner is who I want now we need great infield defence, but he's one year and will cost a pretty penny, so I think that's a no.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Saw him a lot, too, during his brief stay in Chicago.

Dead pull hitter.  Has really good power when he pulls the ball.

I thought his defense was nothing special.  Hes not bad or anything.  Just didn’t excel.

Awful, awful haircut…

Nothing special is light years better than Eugenio Suarez. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That's why he's cheaper and MORE likely.

Why load up on good pitching and get bad defenders? 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Top ALE Rotations:

18.2 BOS (5.7 Crochet, 3.9 Gray, 3.3 Suarez, 1.9 Bello, 1.2 Oviedo) 6-9= 2.1

15.1 TOR (3.8 Cease, 2.8 Gausman, 2.5 Bieber, 2.1 Yesavage, 2.1 Ponce) 6-9= 1.8

13.3 NYY (3.6 Fried, 2.2 Rodon, 1.9 Cole, 1.6 Schlitter, 1.4 Warren) 6-9=2.4

I thought Gray wasn't a 2? 

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Bello (or Sandoval if there's a market) seem quite likely to go now. They will want to shed a little salary while still getting their bat for the infield. 

Horner is who I want now we need great infield defence, but he's one year and will cost a pretty penny, so I think that's a no.

Nico would be great, but I'm not giving up Tolle or Early for him. Would Craig? 

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nico would be great, but I'm not giving up Tolle or Early for him. Would Craig? 

Yeah zero chance I do that. 

Harrison...maybe. But you'd really want an extension too, and that won't be cheap, either.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Yeah zero chance I do that. 

Harrison...maybe. But you'd really want an extension too, and that won't be cheap, either.

I'd smash that button on a Harrison deal for sure. I think the Sox would have to add Sandlin or someone to it, which I'd rather do that a one for one of Tolle/Early.

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

With Wildman Craig Breslow landing Suarez, I'd be far more willing to trade Bello.  There is a reasonable chance that a combination of Sandoval, Oviedo, Early or Tolle could provide value similar to Bello.  While it feels like Bello should get slightly more than Paredes, I think it's pretty close, and the fit is great.

Yeah, I dont hate it.  I might be crazy and still get Geno.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Why load up on good pitching and get bad defenders? 

No bad defenders in the field, plural (note the s), we can have one.

Like when the stonecutters became the no homers club but  they let in one homer but couldnt let in Homer Jay Simpson because they were at quota at one.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No bad defenders in the field, plural (note the s), we can have one.

Like when the stonecutters became the no homers club but  they let in one homer but couldnt let in Homer Jay Simpson because they were at quota at one.

Worst 3b DRS since '23:

1. Vientos -20 (now a 1B/DH)

2. Devers -18 (now a DH)

3. Suarez -13 (should be a 1B/DH)

Bohm is a -12 too, so I don't want him here either. 

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Worst 3b DRS since '23:

1. Vientos -20 (now a 1B/DH)

2. Devers -18 (now a DH)

3. Suarez -13 (should be a 1B/DH)

Bohm is a -12 too, so I don't want him here either. 

Suarez would be a DH.

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bohm is a -12 too, so I don't want him here either. 

Most of that damage was in 2023.  In fact, his defense was Devers-esque in his first 4 seasons (-45 in ~2950 IPs).  His last two seasons were -0- and -2.  I don't see him very often, so I don't have a feel for whether or not that's accurate, but the numbers look better.

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Suarez would be a DH.

How many DHs can they fit on this 40 man? 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why load up on good pitching and get bad defenders? 

Again, I'm not for Vientos. I think he'll go for cheaper than Donovan/Hoerner/paredes.

On E Saurez, it's about the big need for power, and I think we got better at 2B and 1B defense.

[notin]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

With Wildman Craig Breslow landing Suarez, I'd be far more willing to trade Bello.  There is a reasonable chance that a combination of Sandoval, Oviedo, Early or Tolle could provide value similar to Bello.  While it feels like Bello should get slightly more than Paredes, I think it's pretty close, and the fit is great.

Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR last years.  There’s a chance multiple pitchers on that list all surpass Bello…

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Bello was worth 1.9 fWAR last years.  There’s a chance multiple pitchers on that list all surpass Bello…

Agreed, but for now, I think Bello is the #4.

[Larry Cook]

I just heard from wfan that Crawford’s wrist injury is really serious and he probably starts the year on the DL! 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I thought Gray wasn't a 2? 

I'd prefer a better one, and we got one.

By fangraph's projections, which I said I disagree with, he's actually a #1.

[Larry Cook]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd prefer a better one, and we got one.

By fangraph's projections, which I said I disagree with, he's actually a #1.

Crochet, Suarez and bello are all signed through at least 2029! 
 

gray is signed through 2026. Maybe he is replaced in 2027 by houck?  Or maybe early! 
 

oviedo signed through 2027. Maybe he replaced by whoever is left over from houck or early. Or maybe Tolle or Harrison! 
 

either way, our rotation is very deep and very talented! 
 

game 1 - crochet 

game 2 - Suarez 

Game 3 - gray

i really like our chances in the post season 
 

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd smash that button on a Harrison deal for sure. I think the Sox would have to add Sandlin or someone to it, which I'd rather do that a one for one of Tolle/Early.

same here. Nico is only under contract through next year.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

gray is signed through 2026. Maybe he is replaced in 2027 by houck?  Or maybe early! 

He's under team control until after 2027. He has a $30M option with a hefty $5M buyout, so there is a pretty good chance he's back.

Houck will be on his last arb year in 2027. We could be looking at:

1. Crochet

2. Sanchez

3. Gray

4. Houck (The "ace" of 2024)

5. Bello

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's under team control until after 2027. He has a $30M option with a hefty $5M buyout, so there is a pretty good chance he's back.

Houck will be on his last arb year in 2027. We could be looking at:

1. Crochet

2. Sanchez

3. Gray

4. Houck (The "ace" of 2024)

5. Bello

Isn’t the $30M a mutual option?

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

same here. Nico is only under contract through next year.

BTV has his value at $16M. ($28M value-$12M contract) 

BTV has Crawford worth $21.7M ($35M-$13M pay). I'm almost certain the Cubs say not to that 1 on 1 offer. Even adding Cespedes (6.8) Bleis (3.5) Castro 1.8 or DHam (1.1) would still make it a swift "NO!"

I think Crawford (21.7) + Harrison (6.6) might get a yes, but 3 years of Crawford and 4 years of Harrison for 1 year of Hoerner makes me hesitate. I think I'd do it and hope we can extend Hoerner. (I feel better about chances at extending, lately.)

I'd prefer Crawford + Sandlin (5.5) and maybe they want a non 40 man pitcher instead- like...

10.8 Phillips

9.0 Oviedo (2 yrs)

6.0 Bennett or Valera (I'd say no to Valera)

5.5 Eyanson would be a good add.

5.4 Sandoval saves us a bunch of cash

2.9 Drohan likely does not move the needle enough.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Isn’t the $30M a mutual option?

Yes, kinda, but he'd lose the $5M buyout.

I think he'll take the $30M/1 or $5M buyout instead.

If the Sox exercise his option, he can opt for free agency and void the buyout.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, kinda, but he'd lose the $5M buyout.

I think he'll take the $30M/1 or $5M buyout instead.

If the Sox exercise his option, he can opt for free agency and void the buyout.

My understanding is that the Red Sox are on the hook for a total of $21M of guaranteed money. $11M for this year, and the buyout that went up to $10M, because of the trade.