A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We can but we want Mayer at 2B or 3B.

I'd be fine with Geno & Paredes and then trade Duran, Mayer, Casas and Witherspoon for Skenes.  LOL

With injuries/slumps/and the DH spot, there will be plenty of playing time for mayer.

We'll just be a 2026 team in 2026. Guys moving around, hottest 9 bats playing, plenty of days off, plenty of platooning.

New school, baby.

Adapt or get left behind.

[moonslav59]

I think HOU wants an OF'er. They love taking pitchers they think are an Astros tweek away from a CY Young Award, but it's hard to know if they spot one on the Sox roster.

If they were high on Campbell, a one-for-one trade works well on BTV. I'd even add a mis level prospect, too, if needed- maybe Phillips or Eyanson.

 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I think HOU wants an OF'er. They love taking pitchers they think are an Astros tweek away from a CY Young Award, but it's hard to know if they spot one on the Sox roster.

If they were high on Campbell, a one-for-one trade works well on BTV. I'd even add a mis level prospect, too, if needed- maybe Phillips or Eyanson.

 

I can be talked into giving Duran for Paredes (and more) if we are also signing Geno.

KC works too.

My main point is that in 2026, theres very little full time at a specific position. And because we failed to land any big dollar free-agents, its easier to just ignore Yoshida now. 

IF we go sign Bo, we prob wont also be able to bump Yoshida off DH for Suarez.  

I almost see it as Bo/Yoshida OR Paredes/Geno. Either of these and its a salvage.

[drewski6]

Give me either Bo OR Paredes AND Geno Suarez

[drewski6]

And Im happy

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I can be talked into giving Duran for Paredes (and more) if we are also signing Geno.

KC works too.

My main point is that in 2026, theres very little full time at a specific position. And because we failed to land any big dollar free-agents, its easier to just ignore Yoshida now. 

IF we go sign Bo, we prob wont also be able to bump Yoshida off DH for Suarez.  

I almost see it as Bo/Yoshida OR Paredes/Geno. Either of these and its a salvage.

While I think BTV overvalues Duran (46) and undervalues Paredes (12) I don't think 3 years of Duran is equal to 2 years of Paredes.

Yes, we are "desperate" for an infielder, but HOU is desperate for an OF'er.

If we trade Duran for Paredes, I'd want 2 from this group: B King, Sousa, Abreu or their catching prospect Janek. (Maybe just one and some decent prospect.)

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

While I think BTV overvalues Duran (46) and undervalues Paredes (12) I don't think 3 years of Duran is equal to 2 years of Paredes.

Yes, we are "desperate" for an infielder, but HOU is desperate for an OF'er.

If we trade Duran for Paredes, I'd want 2 from this group: B King, Sousa, Abreu or their catching prospect Janek. (Maybe just one and some decent prospect.)

Sure, Im open to Duran for Paredes and more, but my first choice is harrison and philips for paredes. If they insist on Duran, we need more.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I think BTV overvalues Duran (46) and undervalues Paredes (12) I don't think 3 years of Duran is equal to 2 years of Paredes.

Yes, we are "desperate" for an infielder, but HOU is desperate for an OF'er.

If we trade Duran for Paredes, I'd want 2 from this group: B King, Sousa, Abreu or their catching prospect Janek. (Maybe just one and some decent prospect.)

BTV overvalued Duran?  He has as many fWAR in the past two seasons as Ketel Marte and more than Trea Turner…

[Duran Is The Man]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV overvalued Duran?  He has as many fWAR in the past two seasons as Ketel Marte and more than Trea Turner…

he downgrades, criticizes and dumps on Duran every chance he gets. it's not surprise.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

BTV overvalued Duran?  He has as many fWAR in the past two seasons as Ketel Marte and more than Trea Turner…

Just my opinion. IMO, Paredes is worth close to 30. Duran, maybe 40.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he downgrades, criticizes and dumps on Duran every chance he gets. it's not surprise.

Nice try.

I'm not the guy who gives Duran (valued at 45) for Paredes (valued at 12.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

With injuries/slumps/and the DH spot, there will be plenty of playing time for mayer.

We'll just be a 2026 team in 2026. Guys moving around, hottest 9 bats playing, plenty of days off, plenty of platooning.

New school, baby.

Adapt or get left behind.

I'm just saying no Brez adds a 3Bman and 2Bman, unless he trades Mayer.

[moonslav59]

Okay. I now await the breakdown of our top 3 pitchers vs NYY's and TOR's...

[moonslav59]

The fWAR Pitching Leaders from 2024 to 2025:

180+ IP (133 Pitchers)

4. Crochet 10.4

13. R Suarez 7.5

14. S Gray 7.4

57. Bello 3.9

(65. Houck 3.5)

105. Crawford 1.8

ERA-

10. Crochet 72

22. Suarez 79

54. Bello 93

73. Gray 100

FIP

6. Crochet 2.80

13. Gray 3.36

15. Suarez 3.29

72. Bello 4.19

[moonslav59]

Some BTV numbers:

69 KMarte (5 yrs)

44 Matt Shaw (5 yrs)

32 Donovan (2 yrs)

28 Stott (2 yrs)

22 Viento or B Baty (both 4 yrs)

20 Chisholm (1 yr)

19 McLain (2 yrs)

16 Hoerner (2 yrs)

12 Paredes (2 yrs)

7 Bohm (1 yr)

2 G Torres (1 yr)

-4 C Seager (6 yrs)

Best player: KMarte

Best value: Paredes

Most Likely: Vientos (maybe Hoerner)

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Most Likely: Vientos (maybe Hoerner)

Vientos is least likely because he's a terrible defender. 

[notin]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Just my opinion. IMO, Paredes is worth close to 30. Duran, maybe 40.

Based on what?  Paredes makes more money (even if loses his arbitration, which he won’t), has fewer years of control, and accrues fewer WAR…

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Give me either Bo OR Paredes AND Geno Suarez

On BTV, Bello plus Duran gets you Ketel Marte.  Honestly, AZ would be stupid to turn that down…

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

On BTV, Bello plus Duran gets you Ketel Marte.  Honestly, AZ would be stupid to turn that down…

Yeah, Im a Duran guy - but that smells like a rare win/win

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Based on what?  Paredes makes more money (even if loses his arbitration, which he won’t), has fewer years of control, and accrues fewer WAR…

I have Duran valued higher than Paredes.

I really like Paredes and thinks he improves greatly in 2026. He turns 27 in FEB. He plays 3B or 2B and even 1B.

Duran turns 30 in SEPT and might be our FT DH in 2026. He dropped off a little bit, last year but has been real good over the last 3 seasons. Right now, he might be our best player on offense. At worst he's second or third to Anthony & Contreras.

I'm not for handing him away. The Cincy fans on BTV berated me for suggesting he's worth as much as Lodolo. AZ fans slammed me for suggesting Duran plus others for KMarte.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Based on what?  Paredes makes more money (even if loses his arbitration, which he won’t), has fewer years of control, and accrues fewer WAR…

He makes more because he's year 2 of 3. Maybe he's worth more in value per year?

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yeah, Im a Duran guy - but that smells like a rare win/win

Nope: Duran hater are you!

LOL

[notin]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have Duran valued higher than Paredes.

I really like Paredes and thinks he improves greatly in 2026. He turns 27 in FEB. He plays 3B or 2B and even 1B.

Duran turns 30 in SEPT and might be our FT DH in 2026. He dropped off a little bit, last year but has been real good over the last 3 seasons. Right now, he might be our best player on offense. At worst he's second or third to Anthony & Contreras.

I'm not for handing him away. The Cincy fans on BTV berated me for suggesting he's worth as much as Lodolo. AZ fans slammed me for suggesting Duran plus others for KMarte.

Fans always overvalue their own.

 

That said - Bello for Paredes straight up.  Who says no?  (Besides BTV…)

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Fans always overvalue their own.

 

That said - Bello for Paredes straight up.  Who says no?  (Besides BTV…)

HOU is hard to judge. They have their own views on pitchers and how they can tweek them into more success.

They might love Bello- they might not. They might like Crawford or someone else more.

They really need OF help. If they viewed Campbell as a LF'er, they might say yes to him.

That being said, I think both say yes. Most likely to say no? HOU.

The Sox were apparently shopping Bello.

I like Bello much more as our #4 than our #3.

I keep thinking a Duran + Crawford package should get us something very special. According to BTV, that gets us KMarte, but I know AZ says no to that, but it give you an idea of how they view those two.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Fans always overvalue their own.

 

That said - Bello for Paredes straight up.  Who says no?  (Besides BTV…)

I've also seen Paredes play live and on TV a lot. He just looks like a real good hitter.

He bats RH'd.

He has decent splits.

He's good on D but not great.

We need a 3Bman.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've also seen Paredes play live and on TV a lot. He just looks like a real good hitter.

He bats RH'd.

He has decent splits.

He's good on D but not great.

We need a 3Bman.

Saw him a lot, too, during his brief stay in Chicago.

Dead pull hitter.  Has really good power when he pulls the ball.

I thought his defense was nothing special.  Hes not bad or anything.  Just didn’t excel.

Awful, awful haircut…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Just my opinion. IMO, Paredes is worth close to 30. Duran, maybe 40.

I could see Paredes surplus value at $17-24mill.

Over the next 2 years, he probably makes $20-23 mill.  In that time, he is probably worth 5-5.5 fWAR, valued at about $40-44mill

A mean surplus value of $20.5 seems fair…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I could see Paredes surplus value at $17-23mill.

Over the next 2 years, he probably makes $20-23 mill.  In that time, he is probably worth 5-5.5 fWAR, valued at about $40-44mill

A median surplus value of $20mill seems fair…

BTV has his value at $35M for 2 yrs, so $17.5M/yr.

Duran $82.5M/3 or $27.5M/yr

Bello $75.5M/4 or $19M/yr

Abreu $56.4/4 or $14M/yr

Rafaela $94.2/7 or $13.5M/yr

 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has his value at $35M for 2 yrs, so $17.5M/yr.

 

 

BTV is using a projection that has him as a 2-2.1 fWAR player.  If they have him getting paid $25-26mill in the next two years but only generating $37mill in WAR, there is your surplus value of $11mill.

My guesses had him performing slightly better and getting paid slightly less..

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I have Duran valued higher than Paredes.

There's no doubt in my mind that Duran is more valuable.  My only point of contention would be by how much.  I'm not sure how they develop the value side, but if it is based on WAR, then Duran is under-valued.  But if Duran is worth 45.9, then Paredes is worth an easy 30.  Just on my calc sheet, Paredes is a 3.4 player * 2, * $9M, less $25M salary, or $36M.