A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer plays SS and Romy plays 2B.

That's one of the reasons I prefer signing a 3B.  If Bregman gets hurt, Mayer goes to 3B and Hammy/Romy platoon.  If Story gets hurt, same thing.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's one of the reasons I prefer signing a 3B.  If Bregman gets hurt, Mayer goes to 3B and Hammy/Romy platoon.  If Story gets hurt, same thing.

That is an advantage for Bregman over Marte, as DHam should never play 3B, and probably not Romy, either. (Same with SS, but hey some are fine with Rafaela playing middle infield.)

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

we look to have FT or near FT players for every position,

I think it's fairly straightforward.  Assuming we sign Bregman, then C, 1B, SS, 3B, and all 3 outfield spots will have full-time players.  Mayer and Yoshi will be mostly fulltime, with Romy getting decent platoon time at 2B and DH.  Casas has to start in the minors.  Either Duran or Yoshi have to go.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I think it's fairly straightforward.  Assuming we sign Bregman, then C, 1B, SS, 3B, and all 3 outfield spots will have full-time players.  Mayer and Yoshi will be mostly fulltime, with Romy getting decent platoon time at 2B and DH.  Casas has to start in the minors.  Either Duran or Yoshi have to go.

I doubt we ever DFA Yoshida, or have him on the 26 as a PH'er/back up DH/5th or 6th OF. That means trading him and paying all but $3-5M per year or trading Duran.

While I think Duran is significantly better on offense than Yoshida, I think Yoshida can come close to Duran's projected 2026 OPS- less power & way less speed. fangraphs projects Duran at .761 and Yoshida at .766. While I don't agree with this, I do think Masa can do okay at DH.

That coupled with the concept that Duran's value to another team as an OF'er is significantly more than to us as a DH pretty much decides the issue for us. Duran gets traded.

[moonslav59]

Just playing around on BTV and came up with this highly unlikely 3 team trade:

To BOS: Gleyber Torres & Robbie Ray

To SFG: Campbell, Yoshida & Jaden Hamm

To DET: Harrison & DHam

It calls it a minor overpay by the Sox & SFG, when it looks to me like DET is shorted.

[moonslav59]

Another 3 way:

To BOS: Joe Ryan, Alec Bohm, Ryan Jeffries

To PHI: Jarren Duran, Pablo Lopez, DHam

To MIN: Painter, K Campbell, D Soto & Wong

The Tax Line for BOS +$6M ish (+10.2 Bohm, +.6.7 Jeffirs, +6.1 Ryan) (-7.8 Duran, -7.5 KC, 1.4 Wong) Bohm + Jeffirs for 1 yr and Ryan for two. If we leave Bohn out, we save about $4M and can maybe sign Bregman.

[moonslav59]

Injury updates from MLBTR:

Casas is coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee. He told reporters, that he’s uncertain if he’ll be ready for the start of the 2026 campaign. “As of right now, not too sure. Not trying to get ahead of myself, but I do see myself progressing well enough to maybe get into some spring training games. We’ll see how that goes because that’s a benchmark as well.”

 

• Marcelo Mayer expects to be fully ready for Spring Training. His 2025 season was cut short by a wrist injury in August. “I’m pretty much doing full baseball activity, like a normal ramp-up, as I would for a regular season going into spring training,” Mayer said.
• Anthony is also expected to be good to go for the spring. An oblique injury cost him most of September and all of the postseason. The team believed he might have been able to return for the ALCS, but they were knocked out in the ALDS.
• Kutter Crawford is on track to return to action for the first time since 2024. He missed all of last season with knee and wrist issues. “At this point, it’s just normal progression,” Crawford said. “I got off the slope yesterday, and it felt good. And now we just build up the mound progression.”
• Carlos Narvaez had knee surgery at the start of the offseason, but told reporters (including Smith) he would be a full go come springtime.

[Duran Is The Man]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Injury updates from MLBTR:

Casas is coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee. He told reporters, that he’s uncertain if he’ll be ready for the start of the 2026 campaign. “As of right now, not too sure. Not trying to get ahead of myself, but I do see myself progressing well enough to maybe get into some spring training games. We’ll see how that goes because that’s a benchmark as well.”

 

• Marcelo Mayer expects to be fully ready for Spring Training. His 2025 season was cut short by a wrist injury in August. “I’m pretty much doing full baseball activity, like a normal ramp-up, as I would for a regular season going into spring training,” Mayer said.
• Anthony is also expected to be good to go for the spring. An oblique injury cost him most of September and all of the postseason. The team believed he might have been able to return for the ALCS, but they were knocked out in the ALDS.
• Kutter Crawford is on track to return to action for the first time since 2024. He missed all of last season with knee and wrist issues. “At this point, it’s just normal progression,” Crawford said. “I got off the slope yesterday, and it felt good. And now we just build up the mound progression.”
• Carlos Narvaez had knee surgery at the start of the offseason, but told reporters (including Smith) he would be a full go come springtime.

i bet Mayer doesn't make it 50 games before he's hurt again.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i bet Mayer doesn't make it 50 games before he's hurt again.

The pessimism on this board is stunning!

Yet, expectations for guys like Cole to bounce back is high.

[Randy Red Sox]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The pessimism on this board is stunning!

Yet, expectations for guys like Cole to bounce back is high.

honestly what does one have to do with the other?

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

honestly what does one have to do with the other?

Curious why many seem to write off our returning injury players but think other teams will be better based on returning injury players. I wonder why.

[Duran Is The Man]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Curious why many seem to write off our returning injury players but think other teams will be better based on returning injury players. I wonder why.

i never said anything about anyone's returning players. i said something about Mayer due to his extensive history of injuries.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i never said anything about anyone's returning players. i said something about Mayer due to his extensive history of injuries.

I didnt say you did. You asked me why I said what I said.

[Larry Cook]

Cubs finally signed Bregman!!  

[Randy Red Sox]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Cubs finally signed Bregman!!  

and now Breslow will trade 1 of our top SP prospects for Donovan

[Hugh2]

For that contract they can have him.  
 

but I don’t buy the pivot to BO.  Who is certain to get much more than that

[Randy Red Sox]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

For that contract they can have him.  
 

but I don’t buy the pivot to BO.  Who is certain to get much more than that

Trust me there is no chance they sign Bo. Think AT BEST they offer Suarez a 1 yr deal right before ST if he is still available otherwise they trade one of our top 3 SP prospects for Donovan.

[Larry Cook]

12 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and now Breslow will trade 1 of our top SP prospects for Donovan

Donovan bats lefty, I think we need a right handed bat! 
 

I was hoping that maybe now, bres-slow could focus on a number 2 starter for our rotation. But none of sufficient quality to claim that role appear to be available now! 
 

I think we need another lefty reliever and bres-slow should be able to sign one! 

[Randy Red Sox]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

Donovan bats lefty, I think we need a right handed bat! 
 

I was hoping that maybe now, bres-slow could focus on a number 2 starter for our rotation. But none of sufficient quality to claim that role appear to be available now! 
 

I think we need another lefty reliever and bres-slow should be able to sign one! 

Maybe Breslow will fill fill the LH reliever himself and save JH even more $$ since he is already on the payroll.

[UtahSox]

How do you salvage this offseason now? and actually make a better baseball team opening day 2026 vs 2025?  

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i bet Mayer doesn't make it 50 games before he's hurt again.

Under/over signature, I'm on.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and now Breslow will trade 1 of our top SP prospects for Donovan

There is zero chance anyone trades a top prospect for Donovan.

We might trade scraps for Vientos or sign Willi Castro, but we are not trading a top 4 prospect for Donovan. I doubt we trade Witherspoon for him, either, and we shouldn't, despite the 2 years of control.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

How do you salvage this offseason now? and actually make a better baseball team opening day 2026 vs 2025?  

We are almost the same, now. Add Suarez and we are the same or better. Add Suarez and a decent LH'd RP'er and we're better. Not significantly better, as we all hoped, but IMO- better.

[UtahSox]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

We are almost the same, now. Add Suarez and we are the same or better. Add Suarez and a decent LH'd RP'er and we're better. Not significantly better, as we all hoped, but IMO- better.

 

if you put yourself into the position where you thought this roster was at the start of 25, and you had that same thought process here in 2026. not comparing 2025 reality versus our made up expectations of 2026.
26 vs 25

LF Anthony vs Duran (coming off a top 5 WAR 2024)…… PUSH

CF Rafaela vs Rafaela…………. PUSH

RF Abreu Vs Abreu  …………… ADV 2026 (slightly)

DH Devers vs Duran…………… ADV 2025 

1B Contreras vs T Casas (expectations on Casas were high)………..  ADV 2026 (slightly)

2B Mayer vs K Campbell……….PUSH

SS Story vs Story ……….PUSH

3B Bregman vs Suarez…………. ADV 2025 

C Narvaez vs Wong…………PUSH

 

IMO 2025 slightly stronger by high end proven players like Devers, Bregman.

SP1  Crochet vs Crochet (thought he’d be good, he was elite)…….. ADV 2026 

SP2 Houck vs Gray..,… ADV 2025

SP3 Bello vs Bello…….. ADV 2025 (slightly)

SP4 Giolito vs Oviedo……… ADV 2025

SP5 Buehler/ Crawford vs Sandoval/Crawford…… ADV 2025 (Slightly)

Depth Arms……… ADV 2026

Bullpen………. TBD ADV 2026 (slightly) 

I think 2025 was a better team on opening day than the projected 2026 team opening day. 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We are almost the same, now. Add Suarez and we are the same or better. Add Suarez and a decent LH'd RP'er and we're better. Not significantly better, as we all hoped, but IMO- better.

Front office: "Why blow money on another big whiffer who can't field his position? We've already got plenty of those..."

"As soon as Story or Mayer get hurt again, we'll still have one of them as SS, Will 1B, Ceddanne 2B and Eaton 3B -- that's as good as last year's playoff line-up! "

"Depth like that is guaranteed to go shallow into October!"

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Front office: "Why blow money on another big whiffer who can't field his position? We've already got plenty of those..."

"As soon as Story or Mayer get hurt again, we'll still have one of them as SS, Will 1B, Ceddanne 2B and Eaton 3B -- that's as good as last year's playoff line-up! "

"Depth like that is guaranteed to go shallow into October!"

Dude, not signing Bregman is not the end of the world!  I applaud bres-slow for having the discipline to not give out long term contracts to guys over 30!  
 

I like our lineup and hope bres-slow does not trade any of our outfielders or early or Tolle! 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Dude, not signing Bregman is not the end of the world!  I applaud bres-slow for having the discipline to not give out long term contracts to guys over 30!  
 

I like our lineup and hope bres-slow does not trade any of our outfielders or early or Tolle! 

I'm not mocking not signing old guys, just not signing any big leaguers. There's only one MLB team that can brag about that this winter.

Get ready for this line-up: Duran-Story-Anthony-WiLLson-Abreu-Narvaez-Mayer/Romy-Rafaela-EATON.

[Larry Cook]

41 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

Get ready for this line-up: Duran-Story-Anthony-WiLLson-Abreu-Narvaez-Mayer/Romy-Rafaela-EATON.

I can live with this lineup!  We may be susceptible to superior left handed pitching, and injuries but I like our position players. 
 

I really think Anthony and Mayer take a huge step forward!  
I think Duran bounces back toward 2024 levels a bit also. And I hope Cora lets Duran run wild on the bases this year!! Duran creating havoc on the base paths should allow other hitters to see more fastballs 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, UtahSox said:

if you put yourself into the position where you thought this roster was at the start of 25, and you had that same thought process here in 2026. not comparing 2025 reality versus our made up expectations of 2026.
26 vs 25

LF Anthony vs Duran (coming off a top 5 WAR 2024)…… PUSH

CF Rafaela vs Rafaela…………. PUSH

RF Abreu Vs Abreu  …………… ADV 2026 (slightly)

DH Devers vs Duran…………… ADV 2025 

1B Contreras vs T Casas (expectations on Casas were high)………..  ADV 2026 (slightly)

2B Mayer vs K Campbell……….PUSH

SS Story vs Story ……….PUSH

3B Bregman vs Suarez…………. ADV 2025 

C Narvaez vs Wong…………PUSH

 

IMO 2025 slightly stronger by high end proven players like Devers, Bregman.

SP1  Crochet vs Crochet (thought he’d be good, he was elite)…….. ADV 2026 

SP2 Houck vs Gray..,… ADV 2025

SP3 Bello vs Bello…….. ADV 2025 (slightly)

SP4 Giolito vs Oviedo……… ADV 2025

SP5 Buehler/ Crawford vs Sandoval/Crawford…… ADV 2025 (Slightly)

Depth Arms……… ADV 2026

Bullpen………. TBD ADV 2026 (slightly) 
I think 2025 was a better team on opening day than the projected 2026 team opening day. 

No way Story March 2025 is equal to March 2026. Not even close!

No way we viewed Gio highly in March 2025.

Bello just had his best year ever, and you like him the same as March 2025? 

Rafaela showed vast improvement on his K and BB rates. This is not even close to a push.

We had no idea how good Narvaez was, either. Almost nobody liked Wong as the #1. I feel way better about our catchers, now. Sorry, but you are way off on these five guys.

I feel way better about Anthony, now than I ever felt about Duran. He's our best player, now. That's six.

I view Romy 10 times better than last spring, but we lost Ref, so call that a push, at worst.

I counted on zero from Sandoval for 2025. He can't be viewed as a push, now.

Our 26 man roster is very close to how I viewed the 2025 roster in March. The Devers and Bregman losses are huge. They might count as two losses each. Those 2 slots and maybe the pen are the only losses.

C, 1B, SS, LF, CF, RF, SP1, SP3, Closer, Set-up1, Set up2 are all better looking now than last winter.

2B, SP2, Sp4, SP5, SP6-8 are pushes.

3B, DH and pen depth are worse.

Maybe I'm wrong saying we are close to as good as 2025, on paper, even counting Devers and Bregman as 4 losses.

We have a lot of wildcards we did not have in 2025. Sure, we had KC and to some extent Anthony and Mayer, and KC & Mayer have not gained any higher wild card status after 2025, but Anthony, Tolle, Early, Rafaela are better wildcards. Hopes for Bello, Abreu, Sandoval, and Chapman, Whitlock and others look better. Adding Gray, Contreras and Oviedo outshine who we traded away.

 

[Larry Cook]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Bello just had his best year ever, and you like him the same as March 2025? 

 

I felt bello started slowly in 2025, but gained confidence as the season progressed!   He may have run out of gas in September, but he grew a lot in 2025!  
 

That said with bello, you want to believe he can take the next step forward and become a solid number 2 in the rotation, but reality says he is a slightly better than .500 pitcher, who is a did number  4 maybe number 3 starter through his prime years  
 

which is why the development of Tolle and early is so important in 2026!!!