A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

34 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Obviously a very low bar is set for DUBin. 5-20 in June with 1 RBI is really raking.

Who said raking, Mr. Goalpostmover?

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like I said loyalty is one thing, but the illusion of contention is a whole other ballgame.

Sox were 4 games back last year on this very day! Were they out of it then? 🤔

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox were 4 games back last year on this very day! Were they out of it then? 🤔

They were 32-36, and 6 games back in the loss column. Last year at least the team had more life in them in a tougher league. This year they have no life in a very weak league.🤔

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Who said raking, Mr. Goalpostmover?

We’ll stick with very LOW bar being set for DUBin then. Either way it’s 5-20 with 1 RBI.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They were 32-36, and 6 games back in the loss column. Last year at least the team had more life in them in a tougher league. This year they have no life in a very weak league.🤔

Since Sogard was called up:

SP 7th fWAR (includes awful Bello: 13.50 ERA, -0.2 fWAR)

RP 9th fWAR

[mvp 78]

Preseason headline: The 2026 Red Sox Will Not Hit Any Home Runs

TalkSox posters: "Why aren't they hitting homeruns? They need to show some life!"

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

So therefore he’s not improving?

Recent numbers being a little better than less recent numbers is small consolation when you're at 190/254/288.  

[Bellhorn04]

Durbin is a good example of how OPS becomes less and less meaningful the worse the guy is.  542 almost looks productive!

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Durbin is a good example of how OPS becomes less and less meaningful the worse the guy is.  542 almost looks productive!

55 OPS+

48 wRC+

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since Sogard was called up:

SP 7th fWAR (includes awful Bello: 13.50 ERA, -0.2 fWAR)

RP 9th fWAR

What’s the all important record in that time.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Recent numbers being a little better than less recent numbers is small consolation when you're at 190/254/288.  

Agree. Very LOW bar.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

55 OPS+

48 wRC+

35-184 with ZERO HR against a regular pitcher, and 30 K’s. 21 RBI against regular pitchers.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What’s the all important record in that time.

19-26 (.422) before Sogard

8-11 (.421) after Sogard (0-4 in Bello games)

[mvp 78]

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Imagine the thread if any one of us made the majors and hit exactly one home run:

But it was off a position player...

He was wearing a big league uniform...

It still doesn't really count...

It's really on my stat page on baseball reference and can never be erased...

You're just senile, old and retired.

I'm just tired; retired means you're tired again.

Baseball old is over 32. 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Imagine the thread if any one of us made the majors and hit exactly one home run:

But it was off a position player...

He was wearing a big league uniform...

It still doesn't really count...

It's really on my stat page on baseball reference and can never be erased...

You're just senile, old and retired.

I'm just tired; retired means you're tired again.

Baseball old is over 32. 

Bartolo Colon hit one HR in his career (199 OPS) and it's one of the greatest highlights of all time. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bartolo Colon hit one HR in his career (199 OPS) and it's one of the greatest highlights of all time. 

Young guys like Casas and Anthony idolized Colon when he played for the Red Sox because he landed on the IL for swinging too hard.

[illinoisredsox]

23 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Would like to see what he says is the difference in his performance and results

Supposedly the Brewers took a look and changed his arm slot.  I have little faith that the crack Sox pitching lab would have  done that.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bartolo Colon hit one HR in his career (199 OPS) and it's one of the greatest highlights of all time. 

Wasn’t it off of Johan Santana?

[mvp 78]

His arm slot was looking great last night. 

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Wasn’t it off of Johan Santana?

No. Big Game James Shields at Petco!

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No. Big Game James Shields at Petco!

I looked it up.  Felix Hernandez hit his only career home run off of Santana.  Oops.  I was off by 13 years and about 85 pounds…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I looked it up.  Felix Hernandez hit his only career home run off of Santana.  Oops.  I was off by 13 years and about 85 pounds…

It was an oppo grand slam, too! 

[Nick]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The contract is mutual, which means both sides would have to agree to extend it into next season. Either could opt out.

It's mutual UNLESS Chapman reaches 40 innings....that's what I've seen in Cot's and also on an article on MassLive.....confusing

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Nick said:

It's mutual UNLESS Chapman reaches 40 innings....that's what I've seen in Cot's and also on an article on MassLive.....confusing

This is what Christopher Smith says on MassLive: 

Chapman’s contract has a 2027 vesting option if he reaches 40 innings and is healthy at the end of the 2026 season. The vesting option, valued at $13 million, becomes a mutual option if it doesn’t vest.

He needs 20 ⅓ more innings for the option to vest and is on pace to pitch 48 ⅓ innings this season.

 

[mvp 78]

So mutual option if under 40 innings. Guaranteed contract if over 40 innings. 

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

So mutual option if under 40 innings. Guaranteed contract if over 40 innings. 

Sox can't lose either way. Trade him 

[UtahSox]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox were 4 games back last year on this very day! Were they out of it then? 🤔

No, but this roster as it’s currently composed has zero chance zero chance of being a playoff team they have to make a move, and if they wait a month and they’re 13 or 14 games under 500 it’ll be tough to comeback. I don’t think it’s possible. 

[notin]

12 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Durbin is a good example of how OPS becomes less and less meaningful the worse the guy is.  542 almost looks productive!

Ummm….  Sure.

Got yourself some homegrown  Columbian Bitcoin today, I see…

[mvp 78]

If you want to feel really low today, Braden Montgomery hit a walk off tater in his first MLB game last night.