A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

Max efficiency model has to go.  That doesnt mean max inefficiency or spend to spend.  It means every decision is cost/benefit where multiple things are considered alongside fit and WAR/$$

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not advocating to go get underwater contracts, Im just saying that avoiding contracts that may become underwater should not be priority 1, like they have been.

For example: we CANT go get a middle of the order masher who is not great defensively because then what would we do with Masa....Its the downstream effects of GM'ing with scared money.

Simply not making the decision to eat Masa's contract and move him is the biggest problem here. Do that and make Alonso DH. I'd eat half of Story's contract (or more) and send him to COL to end his career. Use the cost savings on a one year rental and bring up Arias when he's ready (not that he's a franchise savior or anything). 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My point isnt that we should go get washed up guys with huge contracts.  Just that its possible to never pay for past performance and wind up like the Pirates.

PIT is 26th in attendance. BOS is still 10th in a tiny ballpark. This year! 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Simply not making the decision to eat Masa's contract and move him is the biggest problem here. Do that and make Alonso DH. I'd eat half of Story's contract (or more) and send him to COL to end his career. Use the cost savings on a one year rental and bring up Arias when he's ready (not that he's a franchise savior or anything). 

Agree.  Not being willing to accept Masa's contract a sunk cost and trying to squeeze efficiency out of it by refusing to bury him in the depth chart (or DFA him) is a great example of when chasing efficiency can get in the way.

I dont intend to mean that we should have turned around and got player x...More so talking about organizational philosophy

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Simply not making the decision to eat Masa's contract and move him is the biggest problem here. Do that and make Alonso DH. I'd eat half of Story's contract (or more) and send him to COL to end his career. Use the cost savings on a one year rental and bring up Arias when he's ready (not that he's a franchise savior or anything). 

One of the issues with the Sox recently has been the rapid promotion of top prospects followed by immediate impatience.  Why is Arias not next in line there?

I’m on the short list of Yoshida supporters, but he is looking like it’s time to cut bait.  The only reason not to is there are enough other issues less likely to straighten themselves out.

Story would be another DFA target, but he actually is or recently was a RHH power bat.  He needs to move to 2b immediately upon his return, however. And if he won’t, it’s a DFA.  Hes not tradable like Devers was.

Doubtful Colorado wants Story.  I was watching them play last night and I’ve never heard of half of that team.  I think they’re trying to go through MLB. anonymously.

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Agree.  Not being willing to accept Masa's contract a sunk cost and trying to squeeze efficiency out of it by refusing to bury him in the depth chart (or DFA him) is a great example of when chasing efficiency can get in the way.

I dont intend to mean that we should have turned around and got player x...More so talking about organizational philosophy

It's apparent that they (Sam and JH) don't like to admit their mistakes and will pass the buck whenever they can. The amount of finger pointing these dopes do is unbelievable. This goes back to the time JH rode his bike to WEEI to declare that he had in fact not even wanted to sign Carl Crawford and was against it from the beginning because he was that smart. It's never ownership's fault, even their terrible FO hirings. 

[drewski6]

The tightest poker player is rarely the best one.  That doesnt mean dont be tight.  It means play within the flow or the game and make decisions on a case by case and dont be scared to lose some chips along the way.

I dont think intelligence comes in the form of hard , unbreakable rules.  Like "never sign a player over 30" or "always make sure you have pitching depth" or "defense first" or "never go after a player who is inefficient from a WAR/$ standpoint".  These hard rules are usually to avoid having to think critically and weigh.

While a team should absolutely seek to minimize bad contracts, I dont think that should be a teams mission. And again, people underestimate how hard it is to use a budget surplus.  There isnt an infinite supply of prime players who can be purchased.  And the few elite players in their prime who are available from time to time dont usually go to the team with the most efficiently spent payroll.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

One of the issues with the Sox recently has been the rapid promotion of top prospects followed by immediate impatience.  Why is Arias not next in line there?

I’m on the short list of Yoshida supporters, but he is looking like it’s time to cut bait.  The only reason not to is there are enough other issues less likely to straighten themselves out.

Story would be another DFA target, but he actually is or recently was a RHH power bat.  He needs to move to 2b immediately upon his return, however. And if he won’t, it’s a DFA.  Hes not tradable like Devers was.

Doubtful Colorado wants Story.  I was watching them play last night and I’ve never heard of half of that team.  I think they’re trying to go through MLB. anonymously.

 

Whom have we been impatient with?

[notin]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My point isnt that we should go get washed up guys with huge contracts.  Just that its possible to never pay for past performance and wind up like the Pirates.

Free agency is ALL ABOUT paying for past performances.  The Juan Soto types that reach at age 26 are ridiculously uncommon, and the Kyle Schwarber types that do nothing in their 20s before taking off in their 30s are even less common.  The bulk of them are 30-35 and ready to wind down their MLB careers.  They might have 1-3 good seasons left, but you have to pay for 7 seasons to get them.  And what do you do in years 4-7 with tjis expensive untradable eating 10-15%?of the payroll?

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

One of the issues with the Sox recently has been the rapid promotion of top prospects followed by immediate impatience.  Why is Arias not next in line there?

I’m on the short list of Yoshida supporters, but he is looking like it’s time to cut bait.  The only reason not to is there are enough other issues less likely to straighten themselves out.

Story would be another DFA target, but he actually is or recently was a RHH power bat.  He needs to move to 2b immediately upon his return, however. And if he won’t, it’s a DFA.  Hes not tradable like Devers was.

Doubtful Colorado wants Story.  I was watching them play last night and I’ve never heard of half of that team.  I think they’re trying to go through MLB. anonymously.

COL have zero SS prospects. I just figured that they pack that place and adding an aging vet on a cheap contract would be fine for them through next season. He'd probably launch a few bombs there too. Probably a pipe dream, but they'd be the only org vaguely interested in him. 

The only reason to keep Masa is that you don't want to mess up future Japanese signings. At least that's the theory. Sox kinda messed it up by jerking him around, but we're passed that point anyway. 

There's no point to either on the roster. There's no point to having 3 catchers either, but here we are. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Free agency is ALL ABOUT paying for past performances.  The Juan Soto types that reach at age 26 are ridiculously uncommon, and the Kyle Schwarber types that do nothing in their 20s before taking off in their 30s are even less common.  The bulk of them are 30-35 and ready to wind down their MLB careers.  They might have 1-3 good seasons left, but you have to pay for 7 seasons to get them.  And what do you do in years 4-7 with tjis expensive untradable eating 10-15%?of the payroll?

You can trade for a DH.

[Hugh2]

going out and adding underwater contracts to this roster would be like rubbing salt on a wound.  Dear god, if this team sucks just sell....just sell and look towards next year. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The tightest poker player is rarely the best one.  That doesnt mean dont be tight.  It means play within the flow or the game and make decisions on a case by case and dont be scared to lose some chips along the way.

I dont think intelligence comes in the form of hard , unbreakable rules.  Like "never sign a player over 30" or "always make sure you have pitching depth" or "defense first" or "never go after a player who is inefficient from a WAR/$ standpoint".  These hard rules are usually to avoid having to think critically and weigh.

While a team should absolutely seek to minimize bad contracts, I dont think that should be a teams mission. And again, people underestimate how hard it is to use a budget surplus.  There isnt an infinite supply of prime players who can be purchased.  And the few elite players in their prime who are available from time to time dont usually go to the team with the most efficiently spent payroll.

It's simply the overreliance on the spreadsheet. I think there needs to be a better feel for what the numbers say and for what kind of moves you can actually do. 

"Theo Epstein has been disappointed by the Sox’s intense analytical direction under Breslow, multiple league sources said."

Bloom hemmed and hawed at trade deadlines because he didn't want to be seen as losing a trade. Breslow can't make trades because they always go against the spreadsheet. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It's simply the overreliance on the spreadsheet. I think there needs to be a better feel for what the numbers say and for what kind of moves you can actually do. 

"Theo Epstein has been disappointed by the Sox’s intense analytical direction under Breslow, multiple league sources said."

Bloom hemmed and hawed at trade deadlines because he didn't want to be seen as losing a trade. Breslow can't make trades because they always go against the spreadsheet. 

The best rule followers know when to buck the rules.  Go by the spreadsheet but know when to go against it , for example.  And we should have never ever let Betts go.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The best rule followers know when to buck the rules.  Go by the spreadsheet but know when to go against it , for example.  And we should have never ever let Betts go.

Geeks, and Nerds, and Spreadsheets oh my!🤮

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

COL have zero SS prospects. I just figured that they pack that place and adding an aging vet on a cheap contract would be fine for them through next season. He'd probably launch a few bombs there too. Probably a pipe dream, but they'd be the only org vaguely interested in him. 

The only reason to keep Masa is that you don't want to mess up future Japanese signings. At least that's the theory. Sox kinda messed it up by jerking him around, but we're passed that point anyway. 

There's no point to either on the roster. There's no point to having 3 catchers either, but here we are. 

Colorado might have no SS prospects, but Tovar is signed for 4 more years at anout $52mill.  While rumors persist they would move him and that contract, I don’t buy it.  He’s only 24, a stellar defender, and far from their biggest problem. 
 

Move Story to 2b when he’s healthy.  He is a RHH with some pop and the Sox need infielders and RHH pop…

[mvp 78]

Bring back Tommy Pham, Christian Arroyo and Reese McGuire. We're running the end of 2022 back. 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You can trade for a DH.

I thought the Sox might.  But considering not even a single rumor since Breslow announced his mission to get a RHH bat, I think his white flag is cocked and ready…

[drewski6]

Im not a football guy but I use to be in a fantasy football league that was absolutely dominated by my pal Steve.  And the guys who took it seriously were alwasy studying Steve, trying to pick his brain on the sly, and trying to like create a cheat sheet of Steves wisdoms.

E.g. never go for a RB on a bad team or dont draft a QB too early....But they would study him and try to pick his brain and create like a WWSD guide.  But they never caught him because they didnt realize that Steves one real rule was dont have rules.  There is a time and a place to go for a RB on a bad team and/or to take a QB early.  And the dudes who couldnt catch him would get frustrated.  I thought you said "blah blah blah, so why did you blah, blah, blah"....And he always had a real reason.  It wasnt that he was misdirecting when they would ask him about how he knew player x would break out or what player types to avoid in the draft.....It was that he made every decision on a case by case basis.  And sometimes , you go against your own general rules.  Because all rules should be general.....And general implies exceptions.

[drewski6]

Just now, notin said:

I thought the Sox might.  But considering not even a single rumor since Breslow announced his mission to get a RHH bat, I think his white flag is cocked and ready…

Sure.  My point is that not trading for a DH in the offseason due to "we have to be more efficient with Masa cuz we already paying him" is how a max efficiency model can bleed into trade decisions (not just FA).  

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

You can have a primary focus of avoiding underwater contracts and find yourself in last place.  In fact, most last place teams usually do spend every waking hour trying to avoid inefficient budget allocation.

 

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Im not advocating to go get underwater contracts, Im just saying that avoiding contracts that may become underwater should not be priority 1, like they have been.

For example: we CANT go get a middle of the order masher who is not great defensively because then what would we do with Masa....It’s the downstream effects of GM'ing with scared money.

This has been my message from the day I signed up on this site…. I have a few thoughts:
 

1- RS and so many of you on Talksox are scared of a bad contract. I believe this stems from ownership training their loyal fans, what’s important to them. Many MANY love to project 4 years into the future and say “that won’t age well” they may be right they may be wrong. They take victory parade, after victory parade, for every slow season start or 15 game slump the guy they didn’t sign has. Conversely they talk about 2030 every time they get on a hot streak.
WC-40 is having a career year at 34 years old, in a lineup with zero protection. Imagine if every pitching coach message wasn’t “hey, there is 5 triple A bats behind Contreras so don’t give him anything here, a walk is a win” point is good baseball players have a better chance at producing into 35-37 age range.

2- AFV=actual Field Value that’s the only metric Red Sox need to improve on between now, and the trade deadline. Obviously RS shouldn’t go after any 1 season rentals but anything beyond that should be priority if they are good at baseball. I’m of the belief we are waaaaaay too far into a reset, and this fanbase is way too anxious to sell for ‘28-‘30 prospects. But if you can turn those prospects into high AFV players by start of season next year all good. 
 

3- I don’t care about 2028-2030 right now, 2027 is the only year that matters. I think the trade deadline this season is the most important in the last 7 years for RS. There is very little by way of free agent bats for next season, I care about 2026 (kinda dead) but still could gain a pulse if a couple real bats are added to lineup (optimist in me says we are only 5.5 games out) if RS don’t get bats I think 2027 will be a lot of the same as 2026.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I thought the Sox might.  But considering not even a single rumor since Breslow announced his mission to get a RHH bat, I think his white flag is cocked and ready…

John Henry has been making calls for him apparently. Guess it's gone well? 

[UtahSox]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's apparent that they (Sam and JH) don't like to admit their mistakes and will pass the buck whenever they can. The amount of finger pointing these dopes do is unbelievable. This goes back to the time JH rode his bike to WEEI to declare that he had in fact not even wanted to sign Carl Crawford and was against it from the beginning because he was that smart. It's never ownership's fault, even their terrible FO hirings. 

I forgot about that. Funny story made me smile, This type of leadership is not great for organizational culture. 

[UtahSox]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Free agency is ALL ABOUT paying for past performances.  The Juan Soto types that reach at age 26 are ridiculously uncommon, and the Kyle Schwarber types that do nothing in their 20s before taking off in their 30s are even less common.  The bulk of them are 30-35 and ready to wind down their MLB careers.  They might have 1-3 good seasons left, but you have to pay for 7 seasons to get them.  And what do you do in years 4-7 with tjis expensive untradable eating 10-15%?of the payroll?

Disagree Notin…. Free agency is about you deciding whether or not said FA player is a better baseball player than what you have. On the actual baseball diamond. You have an organization that “allegedly” NETTED 124m in 2024. If they eat into that to get a good player it’s worth it. I don’t care what you say stat wise we would be a better team today if AB2 was on this roster. He’d help young guys, provide protection for WC40. Every team has those, look at Mike Trout his contract is albatross but he is playing well. Top 5 CF in game, he is not the reason they are losing. Look at Giancarlo contract the contract is terrible but yet they deal with it. “Scared money don’t make money” RedSox are running scared. 

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

 

This has been my message from the day I signed up on this site…. I have a few thoughts:
 

1- RS and so many of you on Talksox are scared of a bad contract. I believe this stems from ownership training their loyal fans, what’s important to them. Many MANY love to project 4 years into the future and say “that won’t age well” they may be right they may be wrong. They take victory parade after victory parade for every slow season start, or 15 game slump the guy they didn’t sign has. Conversely they talk about 2030 every time they get on a hot streak.
WC-40 is having a career year at 34 years old, in a lineup with zero protection. Imagine if every pitching coach message wasn’t “hey, there is 5 triple A bats behind Contreras so don’t give him anything here, a walk is a win” 

2- AFV=actual Field Value that’s the only metric Red Sox need to improve on between now, and the trade deadline. Obviously RS shouldn’t go after any 1 season rentals but anything beyond that should be priority if they are good at baseball. I’m of the belief we are waaaaaay too far into a reset, and this fanbase is way too anxious to sell for ‘28-‘30 prospects. But if you can turn those prospects into high AFV players by start of season next year all good. 
 

3- I don’t care about 2028-2030 right now, 2027 is the only year that matters. I think the trade deadline this season is the most important in the last 7 years for RS. There is very little by way of free agent bats for next season, I care about 2026 (kinda dead) but still could gain a pulse if a couple real bats are added to lineup (optimist in me says we are only 5.5 games out)

Well written.👍👍👍👏

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

1- RS and so many of you on Talksox are scared of a bad contract.

3- I don’t care about 2028-2030 right now, 2027 is the only year that matters. 

If the Red Sox were willing to eat money and overspend, my appetite for those deals would be different. I know the constraints that Henry has put on the budget. If they obtain a bunch of long term guys that stink a few years from now, it's only going to ruin those summers when we get there. Putting all your hopes into one season is really bad business. If the Boston Red Sox did that for 2017 and missed out on 2018? Woof! You need multiple shots at a WS title with a team that wins 90+ games. This team is nowhere close to that right now. They probably need to trash the whole experiment and start over again unfortunately. It's not working! 

[UtahSox]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Red Sox were willing to eat money and overspend, my appetite for those deals would be different. I know the constraints that Henry has put on the budget. If they obtain a bunch of long term guys that stink a few years from now, it's only going to ruin those summers when we get there. Putting all your hopes into one season is really bad business. If the Boston Red Sox did that for 2017 and missed out on 2018? Woof! You need multiple shots at a WS title with a team that wins 90+ games. This team is nowhere close to that right now. They probably need to trash the whole experiment and start over again unfortunately. It's not working! 

Yeah they need to reset the business model. Operation “run the RS like the Rays and Brewers” has worked out tragically. We have the same # of WS appearances since adopting that model as those teams do ZERO. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Red Sox were willing to eat money and overspend, my appetite for those deals would be different. I know the constraints that Henry has put on the budget. If they obtain a bunch of long term guys that stink a few years from now, it's only going to ruin those summers when we get there. Putting all your hopes into one season is really bad business. If the Boston Red Sox did that for 2017 and missed out on 2018? Woof! You need multiple shots at a WS title with a team that wins 90+ games. This team is nowhere close to that right now. They probably need to trash the whole experiment and start over again unfortunately. It's not working! 

You can only kick the can down the road for so long, and I think most fans think it’s been too long already. As I’ve said more than once waiting for the farm boys to get here, and be AWESOME hasn’t worked so far. Some have been injured like Casas, and little Anthony. Some have been traded like Teel, and KC came up, and now pretty much sucks in Woo. One of the Golden Boys Mayer is still a work in process also.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

Yeah they need to reset the business model. Operation run the RS like the Rays and Brewers has worked out tragically. We have the same # of WS appearances since adopting that model as those teams do ZERO. 

They have the money to run similarly to the Dodgers, but they choose to run like a midmarket franchise for some reason. Why? If other private equity owners allow for their teams to spend, why is FSG so concerned with pulling out more cash each year? 

1. Get back to in person scouting

2. Stop forcing every hitter to pull the ball in the air

3. Get a GM underneath Breslow that can communicate for him

4. Get rid of the roadblocks on the MLB squad that will not be here in 2028

5. Hide the box of yellow jerseys and only have them come out on marathon weekend going forward

 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You can only kick the can down the road for so long, and I think most fans think it’s been too long already. As I’ve said more than once waiting for the farm boys to get here, and be AWESOME hasn’t worked so far. Some have been injured like Casas, and little Anthony. Some have been traded like Teel, and KC came up, and now pretty much sucks in Woo. One of the Golden Boys Mayer is still a work in process also.

Kick the can down the road vs put all your eggs in the basket for 2027. Good luck with 2027, I guess? Crochet is injured. You think Roman isn't a fulltime player. Not sure what this squad would get out of 2027 aside from ending the year with a loss. I'd rather build towards another banner, but that's just me. I like winners.