A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Nick]

Can someone clear up Chapman’s contract?

Assuming he reaches magic 40 innings pitched does his 2027 contract become team obligation?

clear this up for me. If the goal is to win despite 2026 not being a possibility why would Sox want to get rid him for 2027?

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

So do you have a point?

The point was made yesterday.🤭

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Nick said:

Can someone clear up Chapman’s contract?

Assuming he reaches magic 40 innings pitched does his 2027 contract become team obligation?

clear this up for me. If the goal is to win despite 2026 not being a possibility why would Sox want to get rid him for 2027?

The contract is mutual, which means both sides would have to agree to extend it into next season. Either could opt out.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Old Red said:

Back to a season high, or low depending how you look at it. 10 games UNDER 500.🤮

Only 4.5 games back of the WC. They are still in it and should buy! Buy whatever they can and save Breslow's job! 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 4.5 games back of the WC. They are still in it and should buy! Buy whatever they can and save Breslow's job! 

Some fans are still buying that 4.5 illusion of contention, and still would if the team was 20 games under 500. In a normal year the Red Sox would be 10+ games out right now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 4.5 games back of the WC. They are still in it and should buy! Buy whatever they can and save Breslow's job! 

The Sox haven't won more than 3 games in a row all year, but if they can just get hot with one 5-game winning streak, then... they'll only be 5 games below .500!

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Some fans are still buying that 4.5 illusion of contention, and still would if the team was 20 games under 500. In a normal year the Red Sox would be 10+ games out right now.

With this rotation, they could replicate the Guardians 17-2 run from last season no prob!!! 💪

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Sox haven't won more than 3 games in a row all year, but if they can just get hot with one 5-game winning streak, then... they'll only be 5 games below .500!

Going to collect winning streaks like pokémon the rest of the season. 

[drewski6]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 4.5 games back of the WC. They are still in it and should buy! Buy whatever they can and save Breslow's job! 

🤢

[notin]

55 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The point was made yesterday.🤭

Yes, that you will complain no matter what…

[notin]

41 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Some fans are still buying that 4.5 illusion of contention, and still would if the team was 20 games under 500. In a normal year the Red Sox would be 10+ games out right now.

The horror!! Fans stand by their team!!  How dare they be loyal!

 

[notin]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The contract is mutual, which means both sides would have to agree to extend it into next season. Either could opt out.

And both sides exercising a mutual option is extremely rare.  Chapman makes a ton of sense to trade…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

🤢

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

And both sides exercising a mutual option is extremely rare.  Chapman makes a ton of sense to trade…

Someone said about 6% yesterday. I wouldn't say that's extremely rare. That's more of a puncher's chance. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

And both sides exercising a mutual option is extremely rare.  Chapman makes a ton of sense to trade…

I looked this up the other day and the number was actually higher than I would have guessed, I don't care to look it up again but it was something like 7% of the time.  Which despite my feelings on the issue is still really low. 

If Chapman is good enough he's going to go to FA and get a higher 1 year deal.  

[Hugh2]

Small sample size but Caleb Durbin the past couple weeks is batting .297 with a .794 OPS

He also has 4 more RBI's than Alex Bregman in 94 less plate apparences.  So.....it could be worse and perhaps he's turning it around. 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Someone said about 6% yesterday. I wouldn't say that's extremely rare. That's more of a puncher's chance. 

but we dont punch well.  We more so slap.

A slappers chance.

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Someone said about 6% yesterday. I wouldn't say that's extremely rare. That's more of a puncher's chance. 

And did they make up the number or provide a source or data?

There are, per the questionably complete list of free agents on MLBTR accompanied wuth slapdash counting on my part, 26 mutual options in this year’s free agents on MLBTR class.  1-2 of them should be exercised at that rate.  I can see sime if the cheaper Gary Sánchez/Ramon Urias/Griffin Canning options being exercised by both sides. Players likely to generate very little interest but would be more expensive to replace. Chapman only exercises his part if the rest of his season is a failure…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Small sample size but Caleb Durbin the past couple weeks is batting .297 with a .794 OPS

He also has 4 more RBI's than Alex Bregman in 94 less plate apparences.  So.....it could be worse and perhaps he's turning it around. 

Durbin is clearly better than what he did in April and May.  He started slow last year as well.  Apparently the Sox butchered his swing to make him a hitter he wasn’t.  

He’s not going to carry this team to the postseason, but he should be a better hitter the rest of the way.  

[Bellhorn04]

"Harrison got lit up and Devers went 0 for 4, so the night wasn't a total loss."

- Shane Schadenfreude

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Small sample size but Caleb Durbin the past couple weeks is batting .297 with a .794 OPS

He also has 4 more RBI's than Alex Bregman in 94 less plate apparences.  So.....it could be worse and perhaps he's turning it around. 

But on the season he's slugging .288 and his home run was off a position player.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox offense seemed to be picking it up a bit, but...

They remain perilously close to being the lowest-scoring team in the game.

 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Small sample size but Caleb Durbin the past couple weeks is batting .297 with a .794 OPS

He also has 4 more RBI's than Alex Bregman in 94 less plate apparences.  So.....it could be worse and perhaps he's turning it around. 

Since he went to the new hitting instructors:

13 G

268 AVG

718 OPS

5 2b

1 3b

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But on the season he's slugging .288 and his home run was off a position player.

Still counts!

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But on the season he's slugging .288 and his home run was off a position player.

So therefore he’s not improving?

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox offense seemed to be picking it up a bit, but...

They remain perilously close to being the lowest-scoring team in the game.

Increase their output by one run per game for the remainder of the year and they'll get to top 10.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The horror!! Fans stand by their team!!  How dare they be loyal!

 

No horror at all. As I’ve said before I applaud the diehards who watch every game even even if it’s a lifeless, listless, bunch of losers. Loyalty is one thing, but the illusion of contention is another.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

So therefore he’s not improving?

Obviously a very low bar is set for DUBin. 5-20 in June with 1 RBI is really raking.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No horror at all. As I’ve said before I applaud the diehards who watch every game even even if it’s a lifeless, listless, bunch of losers.

Strumming your fingers together like Montgomery Burns watching Homer approach the poison donut is NOT applause…

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Strumming your fingers together like Montgomery Burns watching Homer approach the poison donut is NOT applause…

Like I said loyalty is one thing, but the illusion of contention is a whole other ballgame.