A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Actually it’s so he can go to bed earlier and get rid of himself sooner…

if only.

[notin]

On 4/2/2026 at 2:09 PM, mvp 78 said:

Send the Cora Regime to a farm upstate. 

Misleading post from Speier.

While the Sox have never gone to the postseason after starting 1-5, bear in mind that stat covers numerous postseason format changes that can affect that outcome.  For example, the 1996 Red Sox started out 1-5 (actually 0-5) and did miss the postseason.  But they also finished with a record of 85-77 that would have tied them with the White Sox for the third wild card under the current postseason format.  (The Sox went 6-6 against each other that year; I’m not digging any deeper into tie breaking rules from 30 years ago.)

I’m sure if I kept looking into it, I could find another season with a 1-5 start where the Sox finished with over 90 wins, but “failed to make the postseason” because only one team from each league made it that year (meaning prior to 1969) or they finished second in the AL East but there were no wild cards (1970 to 1995).

Speier’s statement is very likely true, but not necessarily any sort of harbinger of doom…

 

 

[JoeBrady]

On 4/1/2026 at 8:08 AM, mvp 78 said:

C'mon. Refsnyder was in POR/WOO to start the year. I don't think anyone on here considered him for the OF rotation at that point. The year before in MIN he hit 663. The year before that in TEX he hit 498. He hadn't been a productive MLBer to that point in his career. 

Guys like Eaton and Refsnyder are kind of journeymen at this point.

[JoeBrady]

On 4/1/2026 at 11:09 AM, vjcsmoke said:

It wasn't until the Red Sox front office destroyed the trust and relationship with Devers that they later dumped his salary for a bag of peanuts

My favorite part of the season is when the GM gets blamed for dumping someone for peanuts (Tibbs & Harrison), while other threads blame the GM for giving away Harrison (1.80 ERA) and future superstar in Tibbs.

[JoeBrady]

On 4/1/2026 at 11:35 PM, moonslav59 said:

Lets see how Alonso compares to Contreras

Contreras is outplaying Alonso, so maybe take that off the table.

[JoeBrady]

On 4/1/2026 at 11:35 PM, moonslav59 said:

rather than KMarte/Neto/Paredes

Since none of those guys were traded, it is difficult to blame the RS for not trading for them.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Contreras is outplaying Alonso, so maybe take that off the table.

It's early, but I think the two will be close in fWAR.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Since none of those guys were traded, it is difficult to blame the RS for not trading for them.

No, but it makes me wonder what if...

[JoeBrady]

On 4/2/2026 at 8:19 AM, mvp 78 said:

They should have just started the year by moving Story to 2b and Mayer to SS. The defense would have improved immensely. Cora just can't possibly have that conversation with one of his players though. 

I think the idea was that Mayer would be sitting against tough lefties, Romy (and then Monasterio) hitting aginst the lefties.  Since neither Romy nor Monasterio can play SS, then neither could Mayer.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think the idea was that Mayer would be sitting against tough lefties, Romy (and then Monasterio) hitting aginst the lefties.  Since neither Romy nor Monasterio can play SS, then neither could Mayer.

They could go IKF at SS. He's the Six Million Dollar Man!

[moonslav59]

Crawford is slated to throw four simulated innings on Monday or Tuesday before beginning a minor league rehab assignment.  Crawford didn’t pitch in the majors or minors in 2025 due to both a lingering knee injury, and then wrist surgery.  

[a700hitter]

Is the Harrison pitching for the Brewers today the same Kyle Harrison that the Red Sox got for Devers?   Why wasn’t he given a shot with the Red Sox.  What was the reason for getting him if they had no plan to use or develop him?

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford is slated to throw four simulated innings on Monday or Tuesday before beginning a minor league rehab assignment.  Crawford didn’t pitch in the majors or minors in 2025 due to both a lingering knee injury, and then wrist surgery.  

I'm not expecting much, but a good comeback might be worth another 1-2 games in the standings.

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

Is the Harrison pitching for the Brewers today the same Kyle Harrison that the Red Sox got for Devers?   Why wasn’t he given a shot with the Red Sox.  What was the reason for getting him if they had no plan to use or develop him?

I doubt it.  I've read a lot of posts saying that we gave away Devers for nothing.  So I think the Harrison and Tibbs we received, must be a different Harrison and Tibbs.

[notin]

17 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Guys like Eaton and Refsnyder are kind of journeymen at this point.

Refsnyder was always a journeyman.  But that doesn’t mean he wasn’t an option for a weak side platoon bat in 2022…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I doubt it.  I've read a lot of posts saying that we gave away Devers for nothing.  So I think the Harrison and Tibbs we received, must be a different Harrison and Tibbs.

Were the Harrison and Tibbs we received the ones from Miami Vice?

[UtahSox]

On 4/4/2026 at 9:08 AM, Maxbialystock said:

Not that it means much, but I took a peak at this year's Sox payroll.  

The 1st, 2d, 4th, 8th, and 9th highest salaries belong to pitchers Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Chapman and Bello and total $98 M..

The two highest paid "hitters" are Story and Yoshida, total $41M.   Next are Contreras at $17M, Anthony (!!!!) at $16M, and Duran at @ $8M.

Obviously, Breslow  prefers to invest in pitchers because his top two hitters contracts were by his predecessor.  Indeed, the only new bats Breslow can claim are Contreras and Durbin.  

And this season the Sox have the 6th highest payroll.  

Oh, and let's not forget that last year Breslow started the season with Devers and Bregman.  Devers left in June because of a disagreement over playing 1b and Bregman had a subpar season because of the injury.  Consequently, Breslow was reluctant to guarantee $35M/year for 5 years to 32 year old Bregman.  Those two were each paid $35M last season and still are this season.  

On the other hand I think it is fair to say that last season  the Sox pitching got them into the postseason, especially after their best hitter Anthony went on the IL on Sep 3.  

Right now Boston is ranked 22d in team ERA and 28th in runs scored.  

 

 

 

 

 

Someone should ask beta Breslow how he feels about being tied for last in league in runs scored while losing multiple games giving up 3 runs or less? What a joke. Not to mention it’s not fun to watch when team gets down by 2 runs in the 3rd and it feel insurmountable. 

[UtahSox]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's early, but I think the two will be close in fWAR.

Very early… 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Very early… 

Yes, but my opinion is not based on wild speculation. fWAR is greatly affected by PAs and hos well you play your position.

Alonso is a really bad defender at a position not highly valued by fWAR.

Contreras used to be a catcher (a higher valued position than 1B) but now plays 1B. He seems to be a better defender at 1B than Alonso, and should get more PAs than he used to get as a catcher. He had his career high in PAs in 2025- his first year at FT 1B. His last 4 years of fWAR were influenced by being a catcher, but since he had less PAs due to catching, I think his WAR numbers can be similar. 3.5>2.8>2.7>2,8. It looks like Fenway might help him, so an estimate or 2.8 to 3.0 seems reasonable. Three year average: 2.8

Alonso's last 4 seasons: 3.8>2.8>2.1>3.6. It's harder to project his final 2026 numbers due to a wider range of recent production, but his 3 year average is 2.8.

Yes, it's early, but they've been very close for 3 years.

[moonslav59]

Only 3 guys over .850:

1.301 Abreu

1.300 Wong

.859 Yoshida

4 guys near .700:

.717 Mayer

.708 Ceddanne

.701 Narvaez

.698 Roman

The sucky six:

.591 Willson

.581 Duran

.429 Monasterio

.333 Story (leads the team in PAs)

.204 Durbin (this is OPS not BA!)

.200 IKF

____________________

SP ERA

2.89 Early

3.27 Crochet

4.50 Gray

8.64 Suarez

9.64 Bello

9.82 Oviedo (1 GS and on IL)

RP ERA (in order of IP)

3.60 Watson

9.64 Weissert

2.25 Chapman & Moran

0.00 Slaten & Whitlock

3.38 Coulombe & Uberstine

4.50 Kelly

 

 

 

[iortiz]

We used to have two allstar proven bats. Now we have not even one. Every big market team has at least 2 or more. Breslow decided to go all the way with youngsters rounded with bit above and average veterans. It was very risky. Yeah it’s still early but you won’t win if you don’t hit. Add to the equation that the pitching hasn’t been good either. I’m not longer sure if this is even fixable. Look at the schedule. This could be over by mid May. 

[notin]

On 4/4/2026 at 4:33 PM, JoeBrady said:

Since none of those guys were traded, it is difficult to blame the RS for not trading for them.

True.  Although a Duran/Paredes deal did make sense for both teams.  Houston just wanted more…

[notin]

15 minutes ago, iortiz said:

We used to have two allstar proven bats. Now we have not even one. Every big market team has at least 2 or more. Breslow decided to go all the way with youngsters rounded with bit above and average veterans. It was very risky. Yeah it’s still early but you won’t win if you don’t hit. Add to the equation that the pitching hasn’t been good either. I’m not longer sure if this is even fixable. Look at the schedule. This could be over by mid May. 

The thing is, the Sox don’t have the worst lineup in MLB.  Not even close.  But they’re at the bottom in scoring.   And while certainly not completely at fault, Alex Cora is certainly doing nothing to change that.

I’m starting to wonder if Cora is trying to get fired.  There are only two real possibilities for some of his decisions.  1) He’s a complete moron.  And 2) he wants out but in a way he gets to keep the entirety of his remaining contract.  And I don’t think he’s a complete moron at least I never have before in all his years here, although I have called some of his actions moronic…

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

True.  Although a Duran/Paredes deal did make sense for both teams.  Houston just wanted more…

I thought the word was the Sox wanted more, if Duran was trade for Paredes.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The thing is, the Sox don’t have the worst lineup in MLB.  Not even close.  But they’re at the bottom in scoring.   And while certainly not completely at fault, Alex Cora is certainly doing nothing to change that.

I’m starting to wonder if Cora is trying to get fired.  There are only two real possibilities for some of his decisions.  1) He’s a complete moron.  And 2) he wants out but in a way he gets to keep the entirety of his remaining contract.  And I don’t think he’s a complete moron at least I never have before in all his years here, although I have called some of his actions moronic…

I think you are on to Cora.  He is not trying to get fired as much as he is playing the guys Breslow delivers and showing them up in a subtle way.     Perhaps AC wants CB's seat in the front office .  A losing season could be the key .    In any event, the organization is screwing the fan base through their internal issues, whatever they may be .

 

[a700hitter]

The Lineup will not be this bad all season, but there is no big bat to carry this team.  They will have a very difficult time putting up runs.

[moonslav59]

It's not likely we trade for a big bat, mid season. It's not like guys like Devers get traded in June.

[iortiz]

6 hours ago, notin said:

The thing is, the Sox don’t have the worst lineup in MLB.  Not even close.  But they’re at the bottom in scoring.   And while certainly not completely at fault, Alex Cora is certainly doing nothing to change that.

I’m starting to wonder if Cora is trying to get fired.  There are only two real possibilities for some of his decisions.  1) He’s a complete moron.  And 2) he wants out but in a way he gets to keep the entirety of his remaining contract.  And I don’t think he’s a complete moron at least I never have before in all his years here, although I have called some of his actions moronic…

I rated this offense C+ entering the season. On paper this was supposed to be good enough with one of the best if not “the best pitching staff in baseball” —as we were told. Suarez looks like bum. Oviedo is not only fragile but a super bum. Bello is mediocre. Gray is a roller coaster. Corchet is legit. Early is your true No. 2 but still needs development.  Neither phase is working and they are not helping themselves. They keep lining up Story and at the SECOND slot! And they keep putting Weissert in high leverage situations. These two alone have cost us at the very least 3 games. 
 

Said that I think I rated them too high. This is nothing but a D+ offense with a bunch of overrated players.  
 

 

[Old Red]

Congrats to the 2026 Boston Red Sox that it only took them 9 games, and go 2-7, which they now have the worst record in baseball, and all to themselves. What makes you feel better that the Red SOx will go on a run, and get back to 500 Breslow’s interview with the Yuckers on NESN yesterday, or Cora saying we’ve got to play better for the endless amount of times?🤔

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not likely we trade for a big bat, mid season. It's not like guys like Devers get traded in June.

Ok, that actually did happen last June, but let's deeply consider the possibilities now:

Do you or any other lucid Red Sox fan really believe that THIS ownership in THIS decade would actually welcome someone else's malcontent under contract for three hundred million dollars?!?!

Would Henry light a cigar if Breslow even dealt four players for an overfed, long-haired leaping gnome?

Spill the wine, take that pearl.