A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Not until he fixes that sweet spot problem…

Man, that Savant stuff really eats up a lot of screen space.

[Larry Cook]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When Bregman & Dobbins return, we'll probably see DHam demoted to AAA (finally) and I Campbell demoted or DFA'd.

Sandoval and Houck may get Hicks, Murphy or Alcara demoted.

 

I got to admit, alcara has really good stuff!! Totally lacking command and control, but the stuff is legitimate and occasionally filthy !!!!!!

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

There isnt a pitcher on the planet I trade Duran for.

Not Skenes of Skubal?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Duran is the leader on this team.  Hes not worth ANY pitcher.  Hes our energy, our leader in the weight room, our leader of sh*t-talking.  The playoffs have a lot of energy, intimidation, psychology.  Duran is the right type of crazy (these days). You cant give that up.

Abreu - I like him too much but can be talking into flipping for a pitcher, but I like him too much.

I dont think the need for a starter is as dire as most.  And Im focused on 2025.

I think we shouldnt even be thinking about selling right now.  Or buying AND selling.  Only buy. This team is really good (as long as Crochet is healthy, knock on wood).

The thing about trading Abreu is that, in theory, Anthony can play RF vs R & L and allows Refsnyder to platoon at DH with Yoshida and then we can more afford to lose in 2026. (He's a FA.)

He plays our RF very well. He has more HRs than Devers, this year, playing just 70% of the games. He has 2 more years of control than Duran and will cost less over the next 2 years. That's a lot of good stuff, but it's also what makes him so  valuable to other teams, too.

I must value SP'ing more than some of you guys. I'm not claiming you are wrong, but I will point out that pitchers who start 30+ games, often face more batters in a season than a 700 PA everyday player. For example, Logan Webb faced 841 batters in 2024. Sure, they were all bunched into just 33 games, but they are just as valuable as 650 to 700 scattered over many 160 games, many of which were blowouts or where a single player's input is near meaningless.

Abreu & mid level prospects for Joe Ryan and an extension would be great for the Sox, and not just for 2025. The "step down" to Anthony might not even be a step down. The step up from Buehler to Ryan could be enormous.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

There isnt a pitcher on the planet I trade Duran for.

If you mowed my lawn in 100 degree humidity and sweated out a lifetime of toxins in one hour like I just did, there is only one: a pitcher of Italian pilsner. But it would have to be ice cold.

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing about trading Abreu is that, in theory, Anthony can play RF vs R & L and allows Refsnyder to platoon at DH with Yoshida and then we can more afford to lose in 2026. (He's a FA.)

He plays our RF very well. He has more HRs than Devers, this year, playing just 70% of the games. He has 2 more years of control than Duran and will cost less over the next 2 years. That's a lot of good stuff, but it's also what makes him so  valuable to other teams, too.

I must value SP'ing more than some of you guys. I'm not claiming you are wrong, but I will point out that pitchers who start 30+ games, often face more batters in a season than a 700 PA everyday player. For example, Logan Webb faced 841 batters in 2024. Sure, they were all bunched into just 33 games, but they are just as valuable as 650 to 700 scattered over many 160 games, many of which were blowouts or where a single player's input is near meaningless.

Abreu & mid level prospects for Joe Ryan and an extension would be great for the Sox, and not just for 2025. The "step down" to Anthony might not even be a step down. The step up from Buehler to Ryan could be enormous.

Prob have to do Abreu and mid level prospects for Joe Ryan.  I dont love it though. I dont think Abreu hit his ceiling. I think he has a 30 HR  / GG year in him.

[drewski6]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not Skenes of Skubal?

No because we have Crochet. If we didnt have Crochet, yes.

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If you mowed my lawn in 100 degree humidity and sweated out a lifetime of toxins in one hour like I just did, there is only one: a pitcher of Italian pilsner. But it would have to be ice cold.

Peroni? I dont know if i could even name a different Italian beer.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Not Skenes of Skubal?

They’re both other worldly 

 

(Rimshot)

[harmony]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

There isnt a pitcher on the planet I trade Duran for.

FWIW this year Jarren Duran ranks 89th among all qualified hitters in fWAR as he approaches his 29th birthday in September.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Prob have to do Abreu and mid level prospects for Joe Ryan.  I dont love it though. I dont think Abreu hit his ceiling. I think he has a 30 HR  / GG year in him.

I think Abreu should improve and may become a FT RF'er, soon. He'd be more likely a FT'er on a team without Refsnyder and 3 other plus OF'ers.

I'm not sure MIN wants an OF'er, but my thought is Duran to PHI (perhaps with mid levels) for Abel or Painter, then flip that pitcher with maybe Arias & Paez or Romero & Early or Sandlin to get Ryan.

Don't get me wrong, I really like Abreu and Duran a ton. I also have total faith in Anthony, and also think the Campbell-Garcia RHB tandem will be fine in the Sox OF for 2026, too. I like Rafaela and his years of control with great CF D more. (He will win the GG, this year.) I would not trade either one, if I did not have complete faith in our OF kids. (I would not be upset with a 2026 OF of Campbell in LF, with more practice out there, Garcia in CF and Anthony in RF.)

[moonslav59]

Cora announces Bregman will forgo a rehab assignment and will start 2 of the last 3 games before the ASB.

[Larry Cook]

We have 6 outfielders on the roster! Something has to give !!

desperate Dave said he prefers an outfielder that can mash left handed pitching (refsynder) 

also desperate Dave said he would not move painter unless he was blown away by players with multiple years of control!!!  

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We have 6 outfielders on the roster! Something has to give !!

desperate Dave said he prefers an outfielder that can mash left handed pitching (refsynder) 

also desperate Dave said he would not move painter unless he was blown away by players with multiple years of control!!!  

Duran, Abreu, Buehler, Hendriks, Valera & Paez

for

Painter, Abel & Castellanos

___________________

Painter, Romero, Early and Cespedes

for

Joe Ryan

 

[vjcsmoke]

On 7/9/2025 at 8:47 AM, mvp 78 said:

What playing the Nats and the Rocks can do to a team. 

I'm aware we beat up on 2 bad sub. 500 teams. But you can only play who is put in front of you.

So I'm glad they got to flex a bit on the bad teams. What might be more impressive is their last close 4-3 win over the Rays, a team that is actually a threat to us in the division. Still thats 7 wins in a row for Red Sox now. Let's keep that positive momentum going!

[vjcsmoke]

Han Solo once said, "Never tell me the odds." 😆

I get it though. But at least there is some reason for optimism. There's still a CHANCE at postseason this year!

On 7/9/2025 at 12:28 AM, harmony said:

FanGraphs gives the 48-45 Red Sox a 33.6 percent of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

After 93 games last year the Red Sox were 51-42 with a 47.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2024-07-11&dateDelta=

 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I'm aware we beat up on 2 bad sub. 500 teams. But you can only play who is put in front of you.

So I'm glad they got to flex a bit on the bad teams. What might be more impressive is their last close 4-3 win over the Rays, a team that is actually a threat to us in the division. Still thats 7 wins in a row for Red Sox now. Let's keep that positive momentum going!

Yup. Remember last year, we struggled vs the CWS and other bad teams.

[moonslav59]

I'm off to Maine, tomorrow. Taking 6 days to drive with a stop for whitewater rafting in WV and 2 nights in NYC with our daughter. You may see a mix n match of my alter ego and moonslav.

Glad we'll be on the road during the ASB.

Leaving just when the Sox took over the last WC slot from SEA.

52-41 NYY

50-44 TBR

50-45 BOS (1/2 from TBR & 3 from NYY)

-1.0 SEA at 48-45

-3.5 KCR & TEX

-4.0 LAA & MIN

-5.0 CLE

-6.5 BAL (playing well, lately)

Gotta keep taking them one game at a time. It would be nice to pass TBR, before the break. Maybe get 1-2 GB NYY, too.

[cp176]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm off to Maine, tomorrow. Taking 6 days to drive with a stop for whitewater rafting in WV and 2 nights in NYC with our daughter. You may see a mix n match of my alter ego and moonslav.

Glad we'll be on the road during the ASB.

Leaving just when the Sox took over the last WC slot from SEA.

52-41 NYY

50-44 TBR

50-45 BOS (1/2 from TBR & 3 from NYY)

-1.0 SEA at 48-45

-3.5 KCR & TEX

-4.0 LAA & MIN

-5.0 CLE

-6.5 BAL (playing well, lately)

Gotta keep taking them one game at a time. It would be nice to pass TBR, before the break. Maybe get 1-2 GB NYY, too.

Enjoy your visit up here.

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, drewski6 said:

No because we have Crochet. If we didnt have Crochet, yes.

I mean if I found a million dollars and someone offered me 2 million dollars for my car I'm not saying no because I already have a million dollars. 

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, notin said:

They’re both other worldly 

 

(Rimshot)

Is that an earnest p warrell joke? vern?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Is that an earnest p warrell joke? vern?

Well isn't that special? 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean if I found a million dollars and someone offered me 2 million dollars for my car I'm not saying no because I already have a million dollars. 

Well, the thought process was that you lean on a single ace very heavily in a postseason.  And you NEED that. A second ace is great but not a capitalized "need" to get THROUGH the playoffs.  But of course, Ryan, would immensely help as a #2.  In a normal WS run, your #1 starter starts 6-7 games (and closes a couple), your #2 starter pitches an average of 4, your #3 an average of 3, your #4 gets like one spot but is used in relief.

So your bumping one of Bello or Gio. But gaining that person as a reliever.  You are also providing insurance because dead in the water with a Crochet injury as currently constructed, but not dead - dead if you have Ryan as backup ace.  Also, cant assume we'll get there, and Ryan helps tremendously with that (making the playoffs)

But I honestly believe that there is something non-quantifiable that Duran brings with his crazy eyes.  If someone with DUrans intensity is starting you down, you cant help but be scared.

And I think they can find a way to work in all 6 OFers. Maybe one plays a little first base, maybe theres some platoons.  But rosters expand in september and you can carry 5 bench players in playoffs (since your 4 and 5 starters essentially become relievers)

And im wondering if we flip KC for Ryan , keep our awesome OF, let our awesome OF overflow occupy DH roles and maybe even some 1B. Plus you pinch hit more in playoffs, so deep bench is a good thing.  Maybe we keep all six stud OFers and flip KC for Ryan is the thought I woke up with.

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well isn't that special? 

remember in earnest goes to camp when the bad-guy corporatists want to turn the beloved camp into something more profitable, and the campers load the catapults with snapping turtles and fire em at the construction crews (who prob are just there doing their jobs but kids movie) and eventually driving them off.

Thats cinematic gold.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

47 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But I honestly believe that there is something non-quantifiable that Duran brings with his crazy eyes.  If someone with DUrans intensity is starting you down, you cant help but be scared.

And im wondering if we flip KC for Ryan 

Stop scaring forum members who can't dig up a stat from the metric system to refute anything you post!

Personally, 51% of me thinks Talksox needs more takes from drewski6 or 7 or 9. My other 39% always puts my best 30.48 centimeters forward typing my own posts (need 10% in reserve to take a nap).

Trading Kristian Campbell, the most recent Minor League Player of the Year, would be unheard of last winter.

But after we've seen him on the diamond since Spring Training, is there anyone else on the internet (besides one biased poster) comfortable with KC manning any defensive position for the next great Red Sox team? 

 

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Man, that Savant stuff really eats up a lot of screen space.

I could just stop posting that stuff and then you'll say "can you show me your source" or "provide me the info for xyz" like you used to? 🥰

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Stop scaring forum members who can't dig up a stat from the metric system to refute anything you post!

Personally, 51% of me thinks Talksox needs more takes from drewski6 or 7 or 9. My other 39% always puts my best 30.48 centimeters forward typing my own posts (I have to save 10% in reserve to take a nap).

Trading Kristian Campbell, the most recent Minor League Player of the Year, would be unheard of last winter.

But after we've since him on the diamond since Spring Training, is there anyone else on the internet (besides one biased poster) comfortable with KC manning any defensive position for the next great Red Sox team? 

I don't know about crazy eyes stats, but I can find an angry lizard stat. He's 2nd in MLB in BsR the past three seasons. That has a lot of value for a team that wants to put pressure on the opposition. 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know about crazy eyes stats, but I can find an angry lizard stat. He's 2nd in MLB in BsR the past three seasons. That has a lot of value for a team that wants to put pressure on the opposition. 

 

i know BS when i see it but wut da' hell is a BsR? 

[bkzwhitestrican]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm off to Maine, tomorrow. Taking 6 days to drive with a stop for whitewater rafting in WV and 2 nights in NYC with our daughter. You may see a mix n match of my alter ego and moonslav.

Glad we'll be on the road during the ASB.

Leaving just when the Sox took over the last WC slot from SEA.

52-41 NYY

50-44 TBR

50-45 BOS (1/2 from TBR & 3 from NYY)

-1.0 SEA at 48-45

-3.5 KCR & TEX

-4.0 LAA & MIN

-5.0 CLE

-6.5 BAL (playing well, lately)

Gotta keep taking them one game at a time. It would be nice to pass TBR, before the break. Maybe get 1-2 GB NYY, too.

Let me know if you need some restaurant recommendations for NYC. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i know BS when i see it but wut da' hell is a BsR? 

BsR (Base Running Runs Above Average): Number of runs above or below average a player has been worth on the bases, based on stolen bases, caught stealing, extra bases taken, outs on the bases, and avoiding double plays. It is the combination of wSB, UBR, and wGDP.