A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

On 7/5/2025 at 11:43 AM, Maxbialystock said:

Toro's OPS is .799 and Gonzalez's is .857.  I can't see spending money or prospects on a first baseman.  I have my doubts about Casas's durability, but he is the presumed 1b for next season.  

Absolutely on the RP or two.  Agree on difficulty of an SP.     

Toro's OPS last 20 games (since 6/13): 602

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

The Toro and Gonzalez platoon at 1B has been working out fine.  Feels like their combined efforts has actually given them more at that position than they've had in a while. 

I also think Gonzalez can have a future on this roster, seeing how Refsnyder is retiring.  I'd like to see him get some reps in LF and add that to his repertoire.  But that can wait until the offseason.  

Jhostynxon has always destroyed LHP. No reason to worry about Romy in the OF. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

In my opinion if the Sox want to make a run their priorities should be

1. A solid backup catcher

2. Relief pitching 8th inning guy

3. A #2 starter

You can totally change my mind on the order of priority. 

 

 I assume these are ranked by how easy they will be fill?

No .500 team has “backup catcher” as their biggest need….

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

 I assume these are ranked by how easy they will be fill?

No .500 team has “backup catcher” as their biggest need….

I'm not sure. Wong should be picking up additional games to lighten the load for Narvaez, but he can't because of how awful he's been. A backup catcher would go a long way to help the Captain of the team. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

If we're buyers, I think I'd reverse this in terms of order, while trying to add a power bat (unlikely). 

A power bat would be nice, but where are you going to put him? I feel like you'd get a marginal upgrade somehwhere at best. 

Of course, Story could always turn back into a pumpkin or an injury could necessitate a need somewhere but I wouldn't undervalue a back up catcher. 

Wong has really regressed this year, and Narvaez will break down at some point given his current usage.  If they lose him things could completely hit a wall and get ugly.  I'd love to jump out in front of that problem and get a good catcher to split duty with Carlos

[Hugh2]

52 minutes ago, notin said:

 I assume these are ranked by how easy they will be fill?

No .500 team has “backup catcher” as their biggest need….

No really ranked, as I eluded my order isn't important. 

But for the reasons I stated above I'd argue it's a huge need. 

[Soxlover]

16 hours ago, Nick said:

Give some credit to Breslow. 

His top 3 acquisitions all made the All-Star team. Every year we have a bad signing. This year it's Buehler. 

At $21M, Buehler was a top 3 acquisition who has pitched like a bottom 3 on the staff

[Soxlover]

I’m sold on Romy and Toro, at least for the rest of ‘25!

[cp176]

It would take an incredible deal for us I think to move either Duran or Abreau.  When you need a power bat, trading Abreau doesn’t make much sense to me.  I like Duran and what he brings to us as well.  Wish his strikeout rate was lower for sure.  If Dobbins comes back healthy, with Fitts we will have two big, strong, young right handers good to go.  At some point Hamilton is the odd man out.  Watson would become my new Hamilton.  By the way, I’d play Mayer everyday.  This team is growing on me.  I like their youth and the energy that comes with it

[notin]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure. Wong should be picking up additional games to lighten the load for Narvaez, but he can't because of how awful he's been. A backup catcher would go a long way to help the Captain of the team. 

So you’re saying backup catcher over bullpen?  Over 1b?

If Wong is the detriment you say, why not simply call up Seby Zavala?

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

So you’re saying backup catcher over bullpen?  Over 1b?

If Wong is the detriment you say, why not simply call up Seby Zavala?

Zavala isn't good anymore. That's why I wouldn't simply call him up. 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Zavala isn't good anymore. That's why I wouldn't simply call him up. 

His defense - which has really ever been his only game - is worse than Wong’s?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

His defense - which has really ever been his only game - is worse than Wong’s?

The SoxProspect guys said they wouldn't add him to the 40 man as the 3rd catcher, so it must not be good enough anymore for them. His defensive metrics fell off last season per Statcast. 🤔

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The SoxProspect guys said they wouldn't add him to the 40 man as the 3rd catcher, so it must not be good enough anymore for them. His defensive metrics fell off last season per Statcast. 🤔

But even then, the original question was where backup catcher ranked among needs.  If they get one, no one other than Connor Wong will complain.  But is bullpen or 1b a higher priority?  

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

But even then, the original question was where backup catcher ranked among needs.  If they get one, no one other than Connor Wong will complain.  But is bullpen or 1b a higher priority?  

Bullpen or 1b? I think bullpen is almost always something that even middling teams add to at the deadline like the Sox did last season. Hard to really compare TBH. There are a lot of pitchers on the IL that could come back (Houck, Burdi, Hendriks, Guerrero, Sandoval) and the Sox may see them as late season adds to the pen. They could also add Harrison, Criswell and Moran. IDK. Toro is fading at 1B (611 OPS since 6/13), but they may add Campbell or even Jordan at some point. They seem to have better depth at those positions than they do at C where Connor Wong is a -0.5 bWAR because the baseball gods decided his good luck last year with the bat needed to reverse quickly and painfully (392 OPS, EV 84.7). 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bullpen or 1b? I think bullpen is almost always something that even middling teams add to at the deadline like the Sox did last season. Hard to really compare TBH. There are a lot of pitchers on the IL that could come back (Houck, Burdi, Hendriks, Guerrero, Sandoval) and the Sox may see them as late season adds to the pen. They could also add Harrison, Criswell and Moran. IDK. Toro is fading at 1B (611 OPS since 6/13), but they may add Campbell or even Jordan at some point. They seem to have better depth at those positions than they do at C where Connor Wong is a -0.5 bWAR because the baseball gods decided his good luck last year with the bat needed to reverse quickly and painfully (392 OPS, EV 84.7). 

I view Campbell’s as Plan A at 1b if they go into Sell Mode.  I doubt they rely solely on the in-house options at 1b now that there are no more August waiver trades if things don’t work out or if someone gets hurt.  Certainly catcher depth is a concern, I just think it’s the #3 concern.

Of course simply getting a backup catcher is among the easiest midseason deals to make.  They might even get two, if one is optionable.  But is trotting Connor Wong out there every fifth day really worse than 1b could be once Toro reverts to the norm? 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I view Campbell’s as Plan A at 1b if they go into Sell Mode.  I doubt they rely solely on the in-house options at 1b now that there are no more August waiver trades if things don’t work out or if someone gets hurt.  Certainly catcher depth is a concern, I just think it’s the #3 concern.

Of course simply getting a backup catcher is among the easiest midseason deals to make.  They might even get two, if one is optionable.  But is trotting Connor Wong out there every fifth day really worse than 1b could be once Toro reverts to the norm? 

I think the problem is that they need to start trotting the backup out more than once every fifth day to give Narvaez some rest. Maybe not 60/40, but 70/30? He's been so valuable and he'll need his legs as they get deeper into the season. The most games he's ever played in a season is 100. He's on track for 122. It doesn't seem like a big difference, but if they do sneak into the playoffs, he's going to be worth TF out and he's a huge contributor for them. 

[Bellhorn04]

Toro is still doing fine.  And I did not not realize he's Canadian until looking at his B-R page.  Now I like him even more.  And you naysayers need to relax and let him produce. 😀

[Soxlover]

5 hours ago, cp176 said:

It would take an incredible deal for us I think to move either Duran or Abreau.  When you need a power bat, trading Abreau doesn’t make much sense to me.  I like Duran and what he brings to us as well.  Wish his strikeout rate was lower for sure.  If Dobbins comes back healthy, with Fitts we will have two big, strong, young right handers good to go.  At some point Hamilton is the odd man out.  Watson would become my new Hamilton.  By the way, I’d play Mayer everyday.  This team is growing on me.  I like their youth and the energy that comes with it

I’d hate to lose Duran or Abreu, too, but I look at it like this: who takes their place in the OF and what is the drop off between one of them and Anthony or Campbell or, gasp, maybe even Garcia?

now, who do we get for one of them and how much is the plus going to be replacing our 5th starter with a #2 or maybe a #3 and a better RPer than we have as our #8?

compare the two comps and determine if we get better overall. IMO, we simply must trade from our area or strength and depth to upgrade an area of clear weakness and lack of healthy and viable depth.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Toro is still doing fine.  And I did not not realize he's Canadian until looking at his B-R page.  Now I like him even more.  And you naysayers need to relax and let him produce. 😀

I heard that Toro mows over young players that are trying to grow on the field. 

[Soxlover]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Toro is still doing fine.  And I did not not realize he's Canadian until looking at his B-R page.  Now I like him even more.  And you naysayers need to relax and let him produce. 😀

I’m thinking we need to ride Toro and Romy to the end. We have greater needs than a rental 1Bman

[Soxlover]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I heard that Toro mows over young players that are trying to grow on the field. 

If it’s with smoke and mirrors, we’ll find out soon enough, and that kid will get a chance, or second chance if it’s KC. It would suck if we roll the dice with the platoon, only to see them implode right after the deadline, but hey. KC can start mowing then, right?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Soxlover said:

If it’s with smoke and mirrors, we’ll find out soon enough, and that kid will get a chance, or second chance if it’s KC. It would suck if we roll the dice with the platoon, only to see them implode right after the deadline, but hey. KC can start mowing then, right?

KC is more of a reel mower. Kind of finicky. Needs just the right conditions. 

[Soxlover]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

KC is more of a reel mower. Kind of finicky. Needs just the right conditions. 

Needs the blades sharpened.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Toro is still doing fine.  And I did not not realize he's Canadian until looking at his B-R page.  Now I like him even more.  And you naysayers need to relax and let him produce. 😀

His BABIP of .321 is quite a bit ahead of his career mark of .253.  There is a reason he’s on his fifth team in the last 5 years.

Hes been great so far, but counting on him might be a bit foolish if the Sox hope to make a run…

[vegasbob]

Recent beat ups of weaker teams has given us some encouragement and forward thinking whether this team can reach the playoffs, much less make a run in them.

At 47-45, the Sox have  70 games remaining .  Last year the Royals and Tigers made the playoffs with 86 wins.

To reach 86 , the Red Sox would need to finish  39-31, 8 games over .500 ,  a .557 win rate.  There are 8 teams currently at or above .557 win rates, and 6 of those are division leaders .     The Rays and Yankees have not played to that win rate this year.  

As others have noted,  the series against teams ahead of the Sox , starting with 4 vs the Rays , between now and the deadline will tell you if this team has a chance.

Breslow said the team would do better after Dever's departure  and the time to back that up is between now and July 31.   Then navigate the woeful August-Septembers of the last 3 years.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Recent beat ups of weaker teams has given us some encouragement and forward thinking whether this team can reach the playoffs, much less make a run in them.

At 47-45, the Sox have  70 games remaining .  Last year the Royals and Tigers made the playoffs with 86 wins.

To reach 86 , the Red Sox would need to finish  39-31, 8 games over .500 ,  a .557 win rate.  There are 8 teams currently at or above .557 win rates, and 6 of those are division leaders .     The Rays and Yankees have not played to that win rate this year.  

As others have noted,  the series against teams ahead of the Sox , starting with 4 vs the Rays , between now and the deadline will tell you if this team has a chance.

Breslow said the team would do better after Dever's departure  and that time to back that up is between now and July 31.   Then navigate the woeful August-Septembers of the last 3 years.

With Devers: 37-36 (50.7%, 82 win pace)

W/O Devers: 10-9 (52.6%, 85 win pace)

[Bellhorn04]

A few wins make me giddy, I know, but the team seems to have some real spark now.  Part of that comes from the energy infusion of Anthony and Mayer, part from Story and Rafaela really stepping it up.  Abreu, Narvaez, Gonzalez have been great.  Duran has been better lately.

The offense should be quite decent when Bregman returns.

It all comes down to how the pitching holds up.

[dgalehouse]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A few wins make me giddy, I know, but the team seems to have some real spark now.  Part of that comes from the energy infusion of Anthony and Mayer, part from Story and Rafaela really stepping it up.  Abreu, Narvaez, Gonzalez have been great.  Duran has been better lately.

The offense should be quite decent when Bregman returns.

It all comes down to how the pitching holds up.

My confidence has never wavered. Breslow has done an excellent job of putting this group together. 

[Soxlover]

3 hours ago, notin said:

His BABIP of .321 is quite a bit ahead of his career mark of .253.  There is a reason he’s on his fifth team in the last 5 years.

Hes been great so far, but counting on him might be a bit foolish if the Sox hope to make a run…

He does have a 4% higher line drive % than his career, but his soft hit rate is higher, too.

Its hard to give up on a guy as hot as he’s been.

Romy has done this bs lefties for a couple years, so maybe he’s no fluke.