A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

Is there any point in giving Grissom at bats when Campbell clearly has more athleticism and power bat already?

I would start Anthony and Campbell out of spring training.

Play the high ceiling guys and let the chips fall.

 

Campbell could also play OF (instead of Rafaela) or 3B (move Devers to 1B, DH or 1B/DH w Casas) Or, as notin suggests, play Grissom at 3B and Campbell at 2B.

I'm all for giving Campbell a wide open chance to make the 26 man opening day roster. Unless we trade Abreu, it's easier to find a spot for him than for Anthony.

[Duran Is The Man]

47 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Just to be clear, I would not trade either Duran or Anthony.

me either.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Reports lean towards the Sox signing a free agent starter, instead of trying to be top bidders for this winter's available bullpen arms. I'll believe either when it actually happens.

But trading a left-handed hitting veteran or two has to be inevitable if they want to make room on the diamond for top prospects.

The part I'm confused about is why anyone thinks any Boston minor leaguer will bring back better returns than Duran, who barely makes MLB minimum wage with four more years of control and is already a proven big league star. 

2024 was Duran's last year at minimum wage.  2025 is his first of 4 arb years.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2024 was Duran's last year at minimum wage.  2025 is his first of 4 arb years.

He will still be paid less than FA, but arbs are on the rise. His 3rd and 4th arbs will not be cheap.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Just to be clear, I would not trade either Duran or Anthony.

I don't think anyone wants to trade these two and even several others.

When you look at all of our top 6 trade chips, one-by-one, I'd like to keep all of them: Duran, Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Casas, & Teel. We could find a way to plug our holes without trading any of them, but it would take one or both of these things to happen:

1. JH to open his wallet or Brez to strike gold on mid level signings.

2. Brez to strike gold on mid-level trades (like Abreu, DHam, Wink or other non blue chippers..)

[Nick]

So the Orioles are again two and out despite leading AL East at some point.

I still say we made a horrible mistake letting Schwarber go despite having to carry him and JD Martinez for another year. That would have stopped us from signing Yoshida. Ugh

We simply have not made good choices. It's not always about money. It's about how and where we spend the money we have.

[Nick]

Signing Corbin Burnes would go long way in getting the Sox Nation excited. Anyone hear me? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

[notin]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

So the Orioles are again two and out despite leading AL East at some point.

I still say we made a horrible mistake letting Schwarber go despite having to carry him and JD Martinez for another year. That would have stopped us from signing Yoshida. Ugh

We simply have not made good choices. It's not always about money. It's about how and where we spend the money we have.

It’s also much easier to run the team with hindsight…

[notin]

5 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

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Posted 2 minutes ago

It's not a good idea to trade your best all-around player, the catalyst to your offense and a guy who shows up every day (Duran) for a so-called " Ace " who will probably go 10-9 before he reports that he has tenderness in his pitching elbow and is getting an MRI.  A better idea is to build a better and deeper bullpen, so you don't blow so many leads. 

This is the literal dictionary definition of a Strawman argument.  In fact, it goes so far as to actually say the new pitcher acquired for Duran would need Strawmy John…

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He will still be paid less than FA, but arbs are on the rise. His 3rd and 4th arbs will not be cheap.

… unless 2023 really was an outlier.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

… unless 2023 really was an outlier.  

hUH?

[Nick]

3 hours ago, notin said:

It’s also much easier to run the team with hindsight…

I agree somewhat but I was all in for Schwarber. I really didn't see the downside.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Nick said:

I agree somewhat but I was all in for Schwarber. I really didn't see the downside.

The big RHB has been a key to all our ring seasons, just as having two TOTR pitchers has been, too.

2004: Manny 1.009 (43 HRs and 124 RBI)

2007: Manny .881, Pedey .823 & Youk .843

2013: Napoli .842, Pedey .787 & L/R Nava .831 & Vic .801

2018: JD 1.031, Betts 1.078& Bogey .882

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, notin said:

… unless 2023 really was an outlier.  

I mean 2024…

[notin]

40 minutes ago, Nick said:

I agree somewhat but I was all in for Schwarber. I really didn't see the downside.

The only real question I thought was where to play him.    He’s not much of an outfielder or first baseman.

 

Of course the Sox really didn’t do much for those positions in 2022 anyway…

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, notin said:

The only real question I thought was where to play him.    He’s not much of an outfielder or first baseman.

 

Of course the Sox really didn’t do much for those positions in 2022 anyway…

Money is always the real question, but if they had signed Flintstone they probably wouldn’t have signed Story Land.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

2018: JD 1.031, Betts 1.078& Bogey .882

 

Hey, I saw all three of those players on my postseason TV, just last night!

... along with Schwarber, of course, and another guy who the Red Sox decided they didn't need anymore -- Jose Iglesias. Yes, the Red Sox, who featured some of the worst middle infield combos in baseball the past three years...

Yes, Iglesias, the scourge of analytics departments like Boston's that just can't seem to calibrate a statistic that encapsulates the dugout and clubhouse contributions of solid veteran character leadership in a pennant race.

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, notin said:

… unless 2023 really was an outlier.  

Fun fact:

Duran's Offensive Runs Above Regulation per PA was virtually the same in 2024 as it was in 2023.

2024 32.8 in 735

2023 15.9 in 362

It was the improvement in defense (and being on the field) that really boosted his WAR.

 

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, notin said:

The only real question I thought was where to play him.    He’s not much of an outfielder or first baseman.

 

Of course the Sox really didn’t do much for those positions in 2022 anyway…

I think they would have trade JD, had the signed Schwarber. They could not have afforded both with those budgets we had.

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Hey, I saw all three of those players on my postseason TV, just last night!

... along with Schwarber, of course, and another guy who the Red Sox decided they didn't need anymore -- Jose Iglesias. Yes, the Red Sox, who featured some of the worst middle infield combos in baseball the past three years...

Yes, Iglesias, the scourge of analytics departments like Boston's that just can't seem to calibrate a statistic that encapsulates the dugout and clubhouse contributions of solid veteran character leadership in a pennant race.

If we go back 3 years, wasn’t Iglesias pasty of those worst middle infield combos?

But of all the players the Sox have failed to retain, I think Iglesias is the one I’ll lose the least sleep over.  One area in which I thought the Sox were ok was utility infielder…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

If we go back 3 years, wasn’t Iglesias pasty of those worst middle infield combos?

But of all the players the Sox have failed to retain, I think Iglesias is the one I’ll lose the least sleep over.  One area in which I thought the Sox were ok was utility infielder…

Ya, they were all set when Kike took over shortstop. I'll bet for every poster who wondered why they wouldn't sign an actual MLB middle infielder last year -- or I dunno, even this year -- there was half a poster who found statistics that showed Iglesias was just no good anymore. 

No good at fielding, no good at hitting, no good at leading a team to the postseason, no good at singing, nogood-nogood-nogood.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ya, they were all set when Kike took over shortstop. I'll bet for every poster who wondered why they wouldn't sign an actual MLB middle infielder last year -- or I dunno, even this year -- there was half a poster who found statistics that showed Iglesias was just no good anymore. 

No good at fielding, no good at hitting, no good at leading a team to the postseason, no good at singing, nogood-nogood-nogood.

Iglesias isn't good SS, but he'd be perfectly fine at a huge hole the Sox have had for years: 2b. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If we go back 3 years, wasn’t Iglesias pasty of those worst middle infield combos?

But of all the players the Sox have failed to retain, I think Iglesias is the one I’ll lose the least sleep over.  One area in which I thought the Sox were ok was utility infielder…

Iglesias had a 3.1 bWAR and 2.5 fWAR in less than half a season this year.  That's a little better than utility level.  Pretty impressive really and yes a little surprising.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Iglesias isn't good SS, but he'd be perfectly fine at a huge hole the Sox have had for years: 2b. 

Second base is where Iglesias mostly played down the stretch in helping the Sox the last time they made the postseason. He hit .356/.915 that last month in 23 games. This year in half a season for the Mets he only hit .337/.850... again, mostly at second base, but also filled in a bit at SS and 3B.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Second base is where Iglesias mostly played down the stretch in helping the Sox the last time they made the postseason. He hit .356/.915 that last month in 23 games. This year in half a season for the Mets he only hit .337/.850... again, mostly at second base, but also filled in a bit at SS and 3B.

He played 18 innings at SS and the metrics were bad as they have been since 2020. I wouldn't care if he filled in at 3B. I advocated signing him in the past when he's been unsigned. I don't think there's been many instances of people saying not to sign him on here. He's kind of a fan favorite going back to his prospect days. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think they would have trade JD, had the signed Schwarber. They could not have afforded both with those budgets we had.

If they didn’t have the budget how did they sign Story for more money?🙈🤭

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If they didn’t have the budget how did they sign Story for more money?🙈🤭

Remember when Sam said, "There is a way we can keep both JD and Mookie"?

Unfortunately, they kept Sam instead.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Fun fact:

Duran's Offensive Runs Above Regulation per PA was virtually the same in 2024 as it was in 2023.

2024 32.8 in 735

2023 15.9 in 362

It was the improvement in defense (and being on the field) that really boosted his WAR.

 

Exactly. If it wasn't for the 60 Day IL for the toe injury, 2023 would have been a lot better looking, except for the defensive bump.

Duran's O has been very good for 1.5 years: his D for just 1.

[notin]

51 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ya, they were all set when Kike took over shortstop. I'll bet for every poster who wondered why they wouldn't sign an actual MLB middle infielder last year -- or I dunno, even this year -- there was half a poster who found statistics that showed Iglesias was just no good anymore. 

No good at fielding, no good at hitting, no good at leading a team to the postseason, no good at singing, nogood-nogood-nogood.

The Sox needed to replace Kike, but Iglesias isn’t much of a shortstop at this point.

But my point is of all the former Sox out there, Iglesias probably moves the needle the least.  I’d much rather they brought back Matt Strahm, who was an All Star this year and would have filled a much bigger need, yet gets less love among the departed than a utility infielder…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly. If it wasn't for the 60 Day IL for the toe injury, 2023 would have been a lot better looking, except for the defensive bump.

Duran's O has been very good for 1.5 years: his D for just 1.

I’d be very surprised - maybe even shocked - if the Sox actually traded Duran.  I just disagree with the point that you can’t get better by dealing your best player, since San Diego clearly proved you can.  And the differences in those situations might highlight why Soto was traded, but they also made it more difficult to find a match, as his $25mill salary limited trading partners and his one year of control made him less attractive to many teams.

 

I do agree with the media in that Abreu and Yoshida are both more likely to go, but Yoshida will cost a lot to move and still might not bring back much if anything…