A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, the late season drop offs are very concerning, but nothings is more concerning that our pitching, IMO.

To me, our 5-8 RP'ers should be our 8-11 RP'ers or even 9-12. I'd add a top 2 RPer and other top 4 RP'er, which would push back a couple of our top 4 into lower slots. We need a SP'er, badly. While I like Fitts, Priester and Criswell, I have way less confidence in them combined than just one of Anthony or Campbell and maybe even the oft-injured Mayer.

Every concern you note about our bats can be easily doubled or even tripled when taking about our rotation and pen.

I thought the rotation WAR actually ended up fairly good?

I'm all for beefing up the rotation and the pen, obviously.

But if you think we have plenty of offense to spare, I'm not really sure what numbers you're basing that on. 

[Bellhorn04]

Duran was #8 in MLB in Total Bases with 330, ahead of Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez.  He led MLB in BOTH DOUBLES AND TRIPLES!

Sox TB leaders:

Duran 330

Devers 271

Rafaela 212

O'Neill 210 

Not. Even. Close.

[Bellhorn04]

It's almost like a lot of Sox fans think the offense will just magically appear, because offense is the easy part, or because Sox fans are used to having strong offenses or because our top prospects are all position players.

[Old Red]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement:

Duran 32.8

Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year)

O'Neill 16.0 (free agent)

Refsnyder 9.4

Abreu 8.4

Wong 5.5

Yoshida 4.6

Hamilton 3.4

Casas 3.0

Story 0.1

Talksox Intelligentsia: "Trade Duran!" 😄

Sorry guys but you really gave me a new toy to play with here.

Agent Bell relax. Everyone knows the numbers Duran put out this year, and most likely will still be the Red Sox next year. Going forward though the telltale to me will be if they try to extend him, or not.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agent Bell relax. Everyone knows the numbers Duran put out this year, and most likely will still be the Red Sox next year. Going forward though the telltale to me will be if they try to extend him, or not.

They probably don't make a big effort to extend him because he's such a late bloomer - he'll be 32 by the time he's a free agent.  They've got him for 4 arb years - prime years age-wise -  that's a pretty good situation for the team.  Not a lot of risk. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agent Bell relax. Everyone knows the numbers Duran put out this year, and most likely will still be the Red Sox next year.

What's really surprising to me is anyone thinking that our offense would look fine without him.   

[harmony]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Buffet and Charlie munger =180 years old experience. Makes your head hurt!!!

i would be happy if bres-slow could time the trade and deee agent market with that kind of success 

FWIW Charlie Munger isn’t getting any older after his death last November.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I thought the rotation WAR actually ended up fairly good?

I'm all for beefing up the rotation and the pen, obviously.

But if you think we have plenty of offense to spare, I'm not really sure what numbers you're basing that on. 

I've explained it. I'm fine with anyone not agreeing, and hoping Story and Grissom can help mitigate the loss of RHB O'Neill is questionable. My main argument is this: replacing O'Neill with hopefully more PAs and better production from Story and Grissom PLUS, I have more faith in Anthony, Campbell and Mayer adding offense than I do in these guys even coming cloew to even with what we lost in pitching. I also mentioned part of the plan can be to swap LHBs Abreu and DHam (throw in Wink) for a RHB:

Replace Pivetta with Giolito and more from Fitts & Priester

Replace Jansen with Hendriks

Replace Martin with more from Guerrero and Penrod.

Honestly, who do you have more faith in.

I'm basing my position on the belief that our budget will not be high enough to fill all our needs, so I am choosing the ones where internal options seem more questionable, and that to me, is clearly pitching, pitching and PITCHING. Like, literally, the top 3 priorities.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What's really surprising to me is anyone thinking that our offense would look fine without him.   

and he is, by far, the most exciting player on the team. trade him and it's just a bunch of blah -like the Rays- that nobody wants to watch. i don't give a s*** about the rest of the teams in MLB, but i like to watch guys like Elly Da La Cruz, Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., Mookie and even Soto and Judge because they're exciting to watch.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've explained it. I'm fine with anyone not agreeing, and hoping Story and Grissom can help mitigate the loss of RHB O'Neill is questionable. My main argument is this: replacing O'Neill with hopefully more PAs and better production from Story and Grissom PLUS, I have more faith in Anthony, Campbell and Mayer adding offense than I do in these guys even coming cloew to even with what we lost in pitching:

Replace Pivetta with Giolito and more from Fitts & Priester

Replace Jansen with Hendriks

Replace Martin with more from Guerrero and Penrod.

Honestly, who do you have more faith in.

I'm basing my position on the belief that our budget will not be high enough to fill all our needs, so I am choosing the ones where internal options seem more questionable, and that to me, is clearly pitching, pitching and PITCHING. Like, literally, the top 3 priorities.

The Red Sox should be able to pick up a RHH OF, because they have done that for the last 3 years. Replacing Jansen with Hendriks, and Martin with Guerrero, and Penrod seems more than a little risky IMO.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement:

Duran 32.8

Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year)

O'Neill 16.0 (free agent)

Refsnyder 9.4

Abreu 8.4

Wong 5.5

Yoshida 4.6

Hamilton 3.4

Casas 3.0

Story 0.1

Talksox Intelligentsia: "Trade Duran!" 😄

Sorry guys but you really gave me a new toy to play with here.

Should the duran be the next guy the Red Sox try to extend? Just leave him in left field for the next 6-8 years???  
Or is 2024  a one year aberration??? 

[moonslav59]

With no additions, this could easily be the opening day 13 man pitching staff:

SP: Houck, Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Fitts (or Criswell/Priester)

RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Fulmer, Wink, Criswell, Guerrero, Penrod (Kelly, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Shugart, Mata)

The pen has 2-4 pitchers who should be AAA depth- good ones, but still AAA depth. Between Fitts, Criswell and Priester, we might find a decent 5th starter, but should we have more faith in them than Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and possible upticks by Story & Grissom returning? Plus, what are the chance that Houck, Bello and Crawford all do as well or better than 2024, because that was not enough to get us to the playoffs? How much faith can we put in Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer? This seems like Kluber, Richards and Paxton redux. Aren't all of us sick and tired of hoping against hope some aging pitcher, who used to be pretty good, and is coming off a major injury, is going to somehow regain his past glory and lead us to the promiseland? (Granted, it does happen to some players and teams, but quite frankly, I'm done wishing up stars.)

I'm not 100% convinced our offense will be the same or better, but I do have more faith in it than the pitching. Many felt losing Turner, Dugo and Duvall without adding anyone but O'Neill was going to mean a decline in offense. We even lost Casas and Story for most of the year, and O'Neill some, too. Devers played hurt for over a month, and others missed time, too. Somehow, we held our ground vs 2023's offense. Of course, we should expect  injuries in 2025, too, but our depth was a strength in 2024, and we are adding 4-5 ML ready prospects to the options available- all looking pretty good on offense and defense. Having more faith in the offense over the pitching is not the same as predicting greatness. I see our pitching, minus Pivetta (#2 in fWAR in our '24 rotation) and Jansen & Martin as being ranked 15th or so. (It was about 11th, this year.) Also, the fixation on needing a RHB does not consider than Anthony and Mayer both hit LHPs very well, and Campbell is a RHB. You don't need RHBs, if your lefties can hit lefties, well, and we will still have Refsnyder (a top 25 batter in MLB vs LHPs since 2022,) Story, Wong, Campbell, Grissom and Rafaela.

Our defense was horrific, but unless the team decides to do some major shuffling at corner infield or adding a solid defensive catcher to "bridge" to Teel, we won't see any improvement in those 3 positions. I do see a big opportunity for major gains at SS, 2B and OF, although our OF defense was pretty damn good in '24. A big key to improving our defense is all about Story's health, and wishing for him to play 140+ games is like the Kulber-Richards-Paxton dilema, but at least we have Mayer as a back-up plan, something we haven't had in a long time at SS. We say -12 OAA at SS from Rafaela, DHam and Reyes combined. Story was +2 in limited action and could provide a huge swing in SS defense, if healthy. (Mayer, too.) Now, 2B: with no DHam at SS, we can use him and others like maybe Campbell or Mayer to rplace these awful numbers on D at 2B: -8 OAA EValdez (the worst on the team) and -3 OAA from Romy at 2B. Grissom was -2, as well, so if he plays a lot, maybe we don't see a big gain, but if he sucks on D, we have replacement options better than the recent past ones. The OF gets better on D, the more Rafaela plays CF not SS. It's a double gain, there. Also, O'Neill was -3 in LF and Ref -2. In RF, O'Neill was -1 Nad Ref -2, while Abreu was +7. Anthony is no slouch on D, so if Ref plays mostly at DH vs LHPs and we replace O'Neill with more OF play by Rafaela and Anthony, it should get better.

Find a good defensive catcher, maybe a RHB with some pop, and that might be all we need for the offense and defense, in terms of external additions.

 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Should the duran be the next guy the Red Sox try to extend? Just leave him in left field for the next 6-8 years???  
Or is 2024  a one year aberration??? 

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Should the duran be the next guy the Red Sox try to extend? Just leave him in left field for the next 6-8 years???  
Or is 2024  a one year aberration??? 

He was actually good in 2023, too. Almost the same OPS, but if half the PAs.

I'd kick the tires on a 1-2 year extension beyond his arb years. We have to remember, Duran has 4 arb years and just turned 28. That means he reached free agency at age 31. That is the age many players start to decline.

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He was actually good in 2023, too. Almost the same OPS, but if half the PAs.

I'd kick the tires on a 1-2 year extension beyond his arb years. We have to remember, Duran has 4 arb years and just turned 28. That means he reached free agency at age 31. That is the age many players start to decline.

Excellent point and we have replacement talent in the funnel now 

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With no additions, this could easily be the opening day 13 man pitching staff:

SP: Houck, Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Fitts (or Criswell/Priester)

RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Fulmer, Wink, Criswell, Guerrero, Penrod (Kelly, Weissert, I Campbell, Booser, Shugart, Mata)

The pen has 2-4 pitchers who should be AAA depth- good ones, but still AAA depth. Between Fitts, Criswell and Priester, we might find a decent 5th starter, but should we have more faith in them than Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and possible upticks by Story & Grissom returning? Plus, what are the chance that Houck, Bello and Crawford all do as well or better than 2024, because that was not enough to get us to the playoffs? How much faith can we put in Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer? This seems like Kluber, Richards and Paxton redux. Aren't all of us sick and tired of hoping against hope some aging pitcher, who used to be pretty good, and is coming off a major injury, is going to somehow regain his past glory and lead us to the promiseland? (Granted, it does happen to some players and teams, but quite frankly, I'm done wishing up stars.)

I'm not 100% convinced our offense will be the same or better, but I do have more faith in it than the pitching. Many felt losing Turner, Dugo and Duvall without adding anyone but O'Neill was going to mean a decline in offense. We even lost Casas and Story for most of the year, and O'Neill some, too. Devers played hurt for over a month, and others missed time, too. Somehow, we held our ground vs 2023's offense. Of course, we should expect  injuries in 2025, too, but our depth was a strength in 2024, and we are adding 4-5 ML ready prospects to the options available- all looking pretty good on offense and defense. Having more faith in the offense over the pitching is not the same as predicting greatness. I see our pitching, minus Pivetta (#2 in fWAR in our '24 rotation) and Jansen & Martin as being ranked 15th or so. (It was about 11th, this year.) Also, the fixation on needing a RHB does not consider than Anthony and Mayer both hit LHPs very well, and Campbell is a RHB. You don't need RHBs, if your lefties can hit lefties, well, and we will still have Refsnyder (a top 25 batter in MLB vs LHPs since 2022,) Story, Wong, Campbell, Grissom and Rafaela.

Our defense was horrific, but unless the team decides to do some major shuffling at corner infield or adding a solid defensive catcher to "bridge" to Teel, we won't see any improvement in those 3 positions. I do see a big opportunity for major gains at SS, 2B and OF, although our OF defense was pretty damn good in '24. A big key to improving our defense is all about Story's health, and wishing for him to play 140+ games is like the Kulber-Richards-Paxton dilema, but at least we have Mayer as a back-up plan, something we haven't had in a long time at SS. We say -12 OAA at SS from Rafaela, DHam and Reyes combined. Story was +2 in limited action and could provide a huge swing in SS defense, if healthy. (Mayer, too.) Now, 2B: with no DHam at SS, we can use him and others like maybe Campbell or Mayer to rplace these awful numbers on D at 2B: -8 OAA EValdez (the worst on the team) and -3 OAA from Romy at 2B. Grissom was -2, as well, so if he plays a lot, maybe we don't see a big gain, but if he sucks on D, we have replacement options better than the recent past ones. The OF gets better on D, the more Rafaela plays CF not SS. It's a double gain, there. Also, O'Neill was -3 in LF and Ref -2. In RF, O'Neill was -1 Nad Ref -2, while Abreu was +7. Anthony is no slouch on D, so if Ref plays mostly at DH vs LHPs and we replace O'Neill with more OF play by Rafaela and Anthony, it should get better.

Find a good defensive catcher, maybe a RHB with some pop, and that might be all we need for the offense and defense, in terms of external additions.

 

As skeptical as I am of Red Sox management I believe there is 0% chance the Red Sox don’t add to the pitching staff. The Red Sox haven’t announced their plans for Whit either, and it wouldn’t surprise me either way the Red Sox end up going with him.

[dgalehouse]

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Posted 2 minutes ago

It's not a good idea to trade your best all-around player, the catalyst to your offense and a guy who shows up every day (Duran) for a so-called " Ace " who will probably go 10-9 before he reports that he has tenderness in his pitching elbow and is getting an MRI.  A better idea is to build a better and deeper bullpen, so you don't blow so many leads. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

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Posted 2 minutes ago

It's not a good idea to trade your best all-around player, the catalyst to your offense and a guy who shows up every day (Duran) for a so-called " Ace " who will probably go 10-9 before he reports that he has tenderness in his pitching elbow and is getting an MRI.  A better idea is to build a better and deeper bullpen, so you don't blow so many leads. 

Reports lean towards the Sox signing a free agent starter, instead of trying to be top bidders for this winter's available bullpen arms. I'll believe either when it actually happens.

But trading a left-handed hitting veteran or two has to be inevitable if they want to make room on the diamond for top prospects.

The part I'm confused about is why anyone thinks any Boston minor leaguer will bring back better returns than Duran, who barely makes MLB minimum wage with four more years of control and is already a proven big league star. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Reports lean towards the Sox signing a free agent starter, instead of trying to be top bidders for this winter's available bullpen arms. I'll believe either when it actually happens.

But trading a left-handed hitting veteran or two has to be inevitable if they want to make room on the diamond for top prospects.

The part I'm confused about is why anyone thinks any Boston minor leaguer will bring back better returns than Duran, who barely makes MLB minimum wage with four more years of control and is already a proven big league star. 

What reports?

On trading 28 year old Duran vs Anthony: 

1. I'm not for trading either one, but arb costs are higher and higher, now.

2. 6 years of Anthony vs 4 years of Duran is a real value (2 years pre-arb costs)

3. Anthony has very good splits vs LHPs and RHPs, although unproven at the ML level. (Duran does not.)

Number one prospects have enormous trade value, when they are ML ready.

 

[moonslav59]

It's not a good idea to trade your best all-around player, the catalyst to your offense and a guy who shows up every day (Duran) -Dgale

Duran was on the 60 Day IL, just last year.

He also was suspended, once, missed some time with COVID and struggled with mental health issues in 2022.

I'm not calling him injury-prone, but he does not "show up every day."

[moonslav59]

Gotta love Duran's 2023-2024 numbers projected to 162 games:

.288 18 71

but...

51 2Bs, 10 3Bs and 79 XBHs/303 TBs.

36 SBs- 6 CS and an .832 OPS.

Plus defense in LF or CF!

He makes so much happen.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What reports?

On trading 28 year old Duran vs Anthony: 

1. I'm not for trading either one, but arb costs are higher and higher, now.

2. 6 years of Anthony vs 4 years of Duran is a real value (2 years pre-arb costs)

3. Anthony has very good splits vs LHPs and RHPs, although unproven at the ML level. (Duran does not.)

Number one prospects have enormous trade value, when they are ML ready.

 

Reports that Sox will focus on a free agent starter over relievers are from McCaffrey from The Athletic, and Sox beat men (who at least quoted her).

As for your #2 point, I still don't see how a prospect with zero MLB at bats can be worth more than an MLB star hitter in his prime with four more years of control.

If Anthony turns out to be a bust, two more years of zero stardom isn't "real value" -- not compared to a big leaguer with 8.5 WAR in one year or 8.5 combined in those extra two years.

Jarren Duran has real value right now. All Red Sox prospects are Bobby Dalbec until proven otherwise.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox should be able to pick up a RHH OF, because they have done that for the last 3 years. Replacing Jansen with Hendriks, and Martin with Guerrero, and Penrod seems more than a little risky IMO.

yeah but it fits in the budget Henry has approved

[Randy Red Sox]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not a good idea to trade your best all-around player, the catalyst to your offense and a guy who shows up every day (Duran) -Dgale

Duran was on the 60 Day IL, just last year.

He also was suspended, once, missed some time with COVID and struggled with mental health issues in 2022.

I'm not calling him injury-prone, but he does not "show up every day."

the only thing that matters with Duran is that he has turned into a good player and is relatively cheap for the next 4 years when he will be 32.  Sox will then not resign him saying that as he ages his speed will diminish.

[Nick]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They probably don't make a big effort to extend him because he's such a late bloomer - he'll be 32 by the time he's a free agent.  They've got him for 4 arb years - prime years age-wise -  that's a pretty good situation for the team.  Not a lot of risk. 

Great point.....4 year window for the management to surround more good players to 'go for it'.

No point in extending every player 10 years, a la Devers.

[dgalehouse]

Just to be clear, I would not trade either Duran or Anthony.

[Nick]

Projected Opening Day Payroll 2024 $175M (cash basis, no benefits)

Projected Opening Day Payroll 2025 $106M (cash basis, no benefits, no arb and non arb players)

Let's say JH tells Bres I want the Opening Payroll to be the same. That means we have close to $70M to spend.

Duran, Tanner and Kutter will cost around $12M more in 2025. I will guess $8M for remaining minimum wage guys.

That leaves us with $50M to 'upgrade' the team.

Starting Pitching, 2-5 should be set with Houck, Giolito, Kutter, Bello, Fits and Cooper. We need #1.

Question. Can we secure someone like Corbin Burnes for $30M and still have money left over to improve the pen and get a quality right handed bat?

We start the pen with Liam Hendricks, Whitlock, Fits, Cooper and other pre arbitration guys.

If we can't have it all, will adding Burnes and the return of Giolito along with Liam and Whitlock get us going in the right direction with the playoffs the goal?

We'll have full year of Story, Casas and Grissom in addition to possible addition of our fab 4.

 

 

 

T

 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Reports that Sox will focus on a free agent starter over relievers are from McCaffrey from The Athletic, and Sox beat men (who at least quoted her).

As for your #2 point, I still don't see how a prospect with zero MLB at bats can be worth more than an MLB star hitter in his prime with four more years of control.

If Anthony turns out to be a bust, two more years of zero stardom isn't "real value" -- not compared to a big leaguer with 8.5 WAR in one year or 8.5 combined in those extra two years.

Jarren Duran has real value right now. All Red Sox prospects are Bobby Dalbec until proven otherwise.

Funny how you mentioned Dalbec, who had an OPS over .800 after a year and a half.

I honestly think many teams would prefer anthony over Duran, but it's a close call. Several would likely rather have Duran.

[Nick]

OF: Jhostynxon Garcia, Red Sox (No. 12)
A/A+/AA: .286/.356/.536, 107 G, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 78 R, 33 BB, 99 K, 17 SB, 151 wRC+

Like Campbell, Garcia began the season unranked on our Red Sox Top 30 and finished it as one of the most productive hitters in the Minors. He hit balls harder than ever and did a better job of launching them in the air in 2024, setting career highs in almost every category and pacing Boston farmhands with 23 homers -- more than double the 11 he totaled in his first three years as a pro.

This kid made the All-MiLB Prospect 1st Team along with Campbell and Anthony.

 

[moonslav59]

We really do need to view this as a 4 year window that begins in 2025. I hope they don't narrow it to 3 years, starting in 2016. Since we may lose Houck after 3, I'd view the next 3 years as our best chance.

9 yrs Devers

7 yrs Rafaela

5+ Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel and other prospects

5yrs Bello (counting option) Abreu, Slaten, Fitts, Criswell, Griffin, I Campbell, Weissert and many others

4yrs Duran, Casas, Crawford, Wong, Wink

3 yrs w opt Story

3 yrs Houck, Whitlock (countin option) Yoshida

2 yrs none

1 yr Hendriks, Refsnyder, Giolito (plus option)

We have a nice core, but we also have some big needs.

GET IT DONE, BREZ!!!

[Nick]

Is there any point in giving Grissom at bats when Campbell clearly has more athleticism and power bat already?

I would start Anthony and Campbell out of spring training.

Play the high ceiling guys and let the chips fall.