A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Who knows?  The point is, he was by far, not even close, the best position player on the team.  And he was injury-free.  I like his chances of still being good next year.

Other teams might like that chance enough too to part with a really good pitcher!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Houck? Trading their best starter would be pretty wild. 

Breslow might balk in trading away a guy once called a righty Chris Sale (had to say it).

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have guaranteed replacements-plural-for Duran and his 7-8 win season?

Man, our future in even better shape than I thought. 

Who said there was a guaranteed replacement? Sounds like you’re stretching things a bit. I said replacement, and who’s to say Duran is guaranteed to do it again? One better than good year does not make him the next big Super Star. If he becomes one then great.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Other teams might like that chance enough too to part with a really good pitcher!

I get that.  But as I said, our offense was not really such a big strength this year, and removing Duran from it would not help.  

Past blockbuster trades for starters-Pedro/Schilling/Beckett/Sale have always been prospects only, I believe.  There's probably a really good reason for that.   

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Other teams might like that chance enough too to part with a really good pitcher!

Exactly. Sell high!

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Who knows?  The point is, he was by far, not even close, the best position player on the team.  And he was injury-free.  I like his chances of still being good next year.

Agent Bell.👍

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Old Red said:

Who said there was a guaranteed replacement? Sounds like you’re stretching things a bit. I said replacement, and who’s to say Duran is guaranteed to do it again? One better than good year does not make him the next big Super Star. If he becomes one then great.

Nothing is guaranteed.  We could trade for a pitcher who gets injured right away.  Pitchers are the riskiest commodity of all.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I get that.  But as I said, our offense was not really such a big strength this year, and removing Duran from it would not help.  

Past blockbuster trades for starters-Pedro/Schilling/Beckett/Sale have always been prospects only, I believe.  There's probably a really good reason for that.   

It wasn't good, but a full season of Story and Casas could change that. The additions of Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Campbell at some point could change that. 

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, let's just trade away our best player - again.  

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Nothing is guaranteed.  We could trade for a pitcher who gets injured right away.  Pitchers are the riskiest commodity of all.

 

Might as well say this, too: Duran probably hasn't endeared himself to Red Sox ownership for comments (and inactions) that prevented him from being allowed to play in games this past summer, and a few years ago. Fans might not care so much, but it doesn't make a guy beloved, either.

In other words, when a team is as blah as Boston's the past three years, there won't be an uproar if the front office actually makes what finally look like sincere moves to legitimately improve.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure, let's just trade away our best player - again.  

 

Duran is not the same as Mookie. When Ellsbury left, it didn't impact the Sox at all. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Duran is not the same as Mookie. When Ellsbury left, it didn't impact the Sox at all. 

Agreed, but Duran is not necessarily a clone of Ellsbury either.  And Duran is a cheap controlled asset at the moment.

Who knows, Brez might do it.  It would really take some major cojones. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is not the same as Mookie. When Ellsbury left, it didn't impact the Sox at all. 

It's a good point, with a parallel: the guy who replaced Ellsbury was a superior fielder but inferior offensive player -- prone to streaks and infinite posts by fans horrified to watch his swings and misses.

And yet... JBJ won a LCS MVP and helped the Sox win another World Series.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nothing is guaranteed.  We could trade for a pitcher who gets injured right away.  Pitchers are the riskiest commodity of all.

 

Agree, but pitching is what they need the most.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure, let's just trade away our best player - again.  

 

Best player for one year does not make him the teams best player IMO.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Agreed, but Duran is not necessarily a clone of Ellsbury either.  And Duran is a cheap controlled asset at the moment.

Who knows, Brez might do it.  It would really take some major cojones. 

He's a cheap controlled asset which is why you could get a really good pitcher for him!

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It wasn't good, but a full season of Story and Casas could change that. The additions of Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Campbell at some point could change that. 

The Sept lumber slumber made things look worse too. Raffy should also be better.

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Sept lumber slumber made things look worse too. Raffy should also be better.

Raffy might also turn into Mr. Aches and Pains.  He had a bunch of issues this year.

We could go back and forth on this for a long time.

It's all in Brez's hands.  He's got a lot to figure out.

I will however place my bet that Duran doesn't get traded.

 

[notin]

47 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow might balk in trading away a guy once called a righty Chris Sale (had to say it).

Was that said when Sale kept getting hurt? Might be a bad omen…

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree, but pitching is what they need the most.

But posting it won’t make the Sox FO sit up and take notice!!!!

[notin]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is not the same as Mookie. When Ellsbury left, it didn't impact the Sox at all. 

It didn’t?

The Sox won a World Series in his last season, then he left and the Sox finished last the next two seasons…

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

It didn’t?

The Sox won a World Series in his last season, then he left and the Sox finished last the next two seasons…

Correlation something something causation .

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

It didn’t?

The Sox won a World Series in his last season, then he left and the Sox finished last the next two seasons…

Expectations! Patience! 

If they rebuild too fast, it might fall down, and then they have to start all over again.

Oh.

[notin]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a cheap controlled asset which is why you could get a really good pitcher for him!

More likely a really good pitching prospect.  Teams acquiring Duran are probably trying to win.  Teams trying to win rarely trade their better starting pitchers.

Now you could deal Duran for a collection of good prospects you could then flip for a really good pitcher on a bad/cost-cutting team…

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Correlation something something causation .

 

“Impact” doesn’t mean “sole reason”…

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Best player for one year does not make him the teams best player IMO.

Agreed.  Just means he had the best season…

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Might as well say this, too: Duran probably hasn't endeared himself to Red Sox ownership for comments (and inactions) that prevented him from being allowed to play in games this past summer, and a few years ago. Fans might not care so much, but it doesn't make a guy beloved, either.

In other words, when a team is as blah as Boston's the past three years, there won't be an uproar if the front office actually makes what finally look like sincere moves to legitimately improve.

Agree and disagree.

 

The lackluster Sox cannot try to maintain the status quo, but this Duran hubbub started when I called it a small market move.  What will those ticket-buying fans think if the Sox unload another young star?  It’s been 6 years since Mookie was dealt, and while the situations are really not the same, to many fans they might be.

 

No one cried when the Sox dealt Moncada or Hanley or Pavano or even Curt Schilling.  But when it’s a good player they actually paid to see, that’s different…

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a cheap controlled asset which is why you could get a really good pitcher for him!

or keep him and sign a pitcher this winter. 

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.  Just means he had the best season…

Right, but very few players are even capable of posting a 7-8 win season.

I do think it's a little crazy for fans of a team that is in such a dry spell to be so keen to dispatch their best and most exciting player.  I get it, it's just armchair wheeler dealer fantasy/entertainment.

The Red Sox have plenty of money to sign good starting pitchers.  I'm really starting to warm up to the idea of Flaherty.  You don't have to trade Jarren Duran to get Flaherty.

I'd rather see them punt another season than do something as rash as trading Duran.

 

[Bellhorn04]

"Sell high" as a methodology is bullfeathers 😉, folks, any good investor knows that.  Warren Buffett said you can't time the market.  That's not how you make your decisions.