A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d be very surprised - maybe even shocked - if the Sox actually traded Duran.  I just disagree with the point that you can’t get better by dealing your best player, since San Diego clearly proved you can.  And the differences in those situations might highlight why Soto was traded, but they also made it more difficult to find a match, as his $25mill salary limited trading partners and his one year of control made him less attractive to many teams.

And the Red Sox traded their best player one other time recently when they traded Betts.

That was a disaster.

There's a whole spectrum of outcomes.  San Diego got a phenomenal return for Soto as it turns out, but I don't think it's the norm.

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

With Masa, it would be addition by subtraction. He has 2.8 bWAR in 2 seasons. That's 2024 David Hamilton. There's just very little value left there. Eat a lot of his salary in a deal and move on. He's just in the way for players that could be far more productive. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And the Red Sox traded their best player one other time recently when they traded Betts.

That was a disaster.

There's a whole spectrum of outcomes.  San Diego got a phenomenal return for Soto as it turns out, but I don't think it's the norm.

Both Juan Soto trades seem to have been good for the dealer. Maybe Bloom just did a s*** job? 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d be very surprised - maybe even shocked - if the Sox actually traded Duran.  I just disagree with the point that you can’t get better by dealing your best player, since San Diego clearly proved you can.  And the differences in those situations might highlight why Soto was traded, but they also made it more difficult to find a match, as his $25mill salary limited trading partners and his one year of control made him less attractive to many teams.

 

I do agree with the media in that Abreu and Yoshida are both more likely to go, but Yoshida will cost a lot to move and still might not bring back much if anything…

You know me: no player is untouchable. 

Of course, I have players I'd much prefer to keep, and I tend to value years of control and upside potential more than some, but I'll trade anyone for a better return. I'll trade anyone for an equal return, if the return is in an area of greater need, and the step up in that area looks to be greater than the step down from the area we traded away.

I prime example would be trading Duran for a 1 slot SP'er. How big is the step down to Anthony or more time from Abreu, Ref and rafaela in the OF? Weigh that step down vs the step up from a top SP'er vs Fitts or Crawford in the rotation. Also, moving Fitts or Crawford to the pen or rotation depth would improve that roster slot as well. Alternately, we could trade Anthony and keep an already excellent OF intact.

If I had to list our who I'd prefer to keep, it would be like this:

1. Houck. 2. Anthony, T3. Campbell & Duran, 5. Teel, 6. Mayer, T7 Casas and Bello, 9. Slaten, 10. Arias

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d be very surprised - maybe even shocked - if the Sox actually traded Duran.  I just disagree with the point that you can’t get better by dealing your best player, since San Diego clearly proved you can.  And the differences in those situations might highlight why Soto was traded, but they also made it more difficult to find a match, as his $25mill salary limited trading partners and his one year of control made him less attractive to many teams.

 

I do agree with the media in that Abreu and Yoshida are both more likely to go, but Yoshida will cost a lot to move and still might not bring back much if anything…

I expect nothing for Yoshida, except salary relief that can be added to our winter spending budget. If the savings just go in JH's wallet, than I prefer we just keep him, and hope he build value.

I'd scour the league for someone who wants Abreu and DHam and has a very good RP'er or two to gives us in return, or maybe a solid #3 SP'er. We need to shed a couple LHBs, anyway, and I think these two have real value, along with 5 years of control, each.

You have BTV, I believe. Who are some RP'ers or SP'ers we could get for one of these two guys or bth combined? Does adding Wink sweeten the return all that much?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If I had to list our who I'd prefer to keep, it would be like this:

1. Houck. 2. Anthony, T3. Campbell & Duran, 5. Teel, 6. Mayer, T7 Casas and Bello, 9. Slaten, 10. Arias

Interesting thought exercise. 

1. Anthony 2. Houck. 3. Campbell. 4. Teel. 5. Duran 6. Casas 7. Abreu 8. Mayer 9. Crawford 10. Slaten

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And the Red Sox traded their best player one other time recently when they traded Betts.

That was a disaster.

There's a whole spectrum of outcomes.  San Diego got a phenomenal return for Soto as it turns out, but I don't think it's the norm.

 

 

 

Norm or not, I was only showing it’s possible, and I meant for near term only.

There are likely plenty of examples of teams dealing their best player and getting better.  That doesn’t make it the recommended course of action, but it doesn’t always have to be a death nail either…

[notin]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I expect nothing for Yoshida, except salary relief that can be added to our winter spending budget. If the savings just go in JH's wallet, than I prefer we just keep him, and hope he build value.

I'd scour the league for someone who wants Abreu and DHam and has a very good RP'er or two to gives us in return, or maybe a solid #3 SP'er. We need to shed a couple LHBs, anyway, and I think these two have real value, along with 5 years of control, each.

You have BTV, I believe. Who are some RP'ers or SP'ers we could get for one of these two guys or bth combined? Does adding Wink sweeten the return all that much?

I do not have BTV.  I just use the boards to get recent values…

[mvp 78]

Actually, the Red Sox won the Betts trade. 

 

[Nick]

Per MassLive\

By now, it’s obvious that the Red Sox made a mistake in not retaining Kyle Schwarber after the 2021 season. At the time, Schwarber was somewhat redundant because of fellow DH J.D. Martinez. But the Sox should have eaten the necessary money needed to trade Martinez and and kept Schwarber, who has averaged 44 homers over the last three seasons with the Phillies, while scoring 318 runs and knocking in 302. He’s also established himself as a dynamic postseason performer, with a .987 OPS.

 

He caught and batted 2nd for my IU Hoosiers. For me there's no hindsight. I was ecstatic when we acquired him and disappointed when we just let him walk away.

Only other time I felt that way was when we let Buddy Bell walk after a rental year when he re-established his VALUE playing for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Nick said:

Per MassLive\

By now, it’s obvious that the Red Sox made a mistake in not retaining Kyle Schwarber after the 2021 season. At the time, Schwarber was somewhat redundant because of fellow DH J.D. Martinez. But the Sox should have eaten the necessary money needed to trade Martinez and and kept Schwarber, who has averaged 44 homers over the last three seasons with the Phillies, while scoring 318 runs and knocking in 302. He’s also established himself as a dynamic postseason performer, with a .987 OPS.

 

He caught and batted 2nd for my IU Hoosiers. For me there's no hindsight. I was ecstatic when we acquired him and disappointed when we just let him walk away.

Only other time I felt that way was when we let Buddy Bell walk after a rental year when he re-established his VALUE playing for the Sox.

You mean Adrian Beltre?

[Nick]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You mean Adrian Beltre?

Yes......where in the hell did I get Buddy Bell? Thanks 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Both Juan Soto trades seem to have been good for the dealer. Maybe Bloom just did a s*** job? 

With the Betts trade I keep coming back to the fact that it didn't seem to develop until really late.  Seems like there must have been indecision on the Sox part.  (Would that be a surprise?)

Whereas the Padres started shopping Soto right away I think. 

Or maybe it was the inclusion of Price in the deal that minimized our return.

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

Norm or not, I was only showing it’s possible, and I meant for near term only.

There are likely plenty of examples of teams dealing their best player and getting better.  That doesn’t make it the recommended course of action, but it doesn’t always have to be a death nail either…

Every situation is different, that's for sure.  It's not a one size fits all thing.

What I've been harping on is that the Sox do not have a surplus of offense - not even close - so to me trading Duran absolutely does not fit their situation.  

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

With the Betts trade I keep coming back to the fact that it didn't seem to develop until really late.  Seems like there must have been indecision on the Sox part.  (Would that be a surprise?)

Whereas the Padres started shopping Soto right away I think. 

Or maybe it was the inclusion of Price in the deal that minimized the return.

With Betts, there were only two reported offers.   and neither was particularly dazzling…

[Nick]

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts was left searching for answers following another hitless performance in a Game 2 loss to the San Diego Padres.

"They're all outs. So, they're all terrible," Betts said postgame Sunday when asked about his at-bats during the 10-2 defeat, according to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. "I don't know really what to say about it. I'm giving my best, doing my best. Obviously, it's not good enough right now."

The eight-time All-Star is mired in a 3-for-44 postseason slump dating back to Game 4 of the 2021 NLCS. He's gone hitless in six at-bats to begin this year's NLDS.

 

At least I can take comfort in this.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Every situation is different, that's for sure.  It's not a one size fits all thing.

What I've been harping on is that the Sox do not have a surplus of offense - not even close - so to me trading Duran absolutely does not fit their situation.  

I’d be surprised if he went anywhere.

Of course if the infamous “right deal” comes along, that might change things…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Nick said:

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts was left searching for answers following another hitless performance in a Game 2 loss to the San Diego Padres.

"They're all outs. So, they're all terrible," Betts said postgame Sunday when asked about his at-bats during the 10-2 defeat, according to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. "I don't know really what to say about it. I'm giving my best, doing my best. Obviously, it's not good enough right now."

The eight-time All-Star is mired in a 3-for-44 postseason slump dating back to Game 4 of the 2021 NLCS. He's gone hitless in six at-bats to begin this year's NLDS.

 

At least I can take comfort in this.

Betts’ postseason struggles are not new.  He wasn’t very good with Boston, either.  Only once (2017 ALDS vs Houston),  did he top a .700 OPS in a series, with a .790…

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

With the Betts trade I keep coming back to the fact that it didn't seem to develop until really late.  Seems like there must have been indecision on the Sox part.  (Would that be a surprise?)

Whereas the Padres started shopping Soto right away I think. 

Or maybe it was the inclusion of Price in the deal that minimized our return.

The Sox had shopped Betts to the Padres earlier that offseason. There was a deal in the works in a prior season for Betts, but it was squashed for some reason. Price definitely pushed the return down. Jeter Downs failing as a prospect definitely hurt the outlook of that trade as he was supposed to be the big prize of that deal. Verdugo and Wong worked out for what they were, but Downs was potentially going to be a franchise type SS. If he became a starting SS, I think the Mookie deal looks a lot more favorable even if the Sox don't get a pitcher. 

Separately because a three way trade was dropped:

Graterol/Raley/draft pick for Maeda/Camargo/cash

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

With the Betts trade I keep coming back to the fact that it didn't seem to develop until really late.  Seems like there must have been indecision on the Sox part.  (Would that be a surprise?)

Whereas the Padres started shopping Soto right away I think. 

Or maybe it was the inclusion of Price in the deal that minimized our return.

Well, word was DD almost traded Betts, at the deadline in 2019, but a winning stretch put it on hold.

IMO, the idea to trade Betts was a priority from then, until he was actually traded. They had time to make a decision, and I am not sure there were all than many options to choose from- maybe two. 

I don't think there was "indecision." They decided he would be traded, early. 

When the injury was discovered on Graterol, maybe there was a period of indecision on how to restructure the deal. but think they were very decisive on trading him, at some point.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Interesting thought exercise. 

1. Anthony 2. Houck. 3. Campbell. 4. Teel. 5. Duran 6. Casas 7. Abreu 8. Mayer 9. Crawford 10. Slaten

But who are your favorite trade chips that might actually interest other teams?

[moonslav59]

I do not think we should undersell the loss of Pivetta. He was 4th in IP, this year and 3rd in bWAR. He was a horse in previous seasons. Thinking Gio will match his numbers scares me.

Losing our two best RP'ers from 2023-2024 scares me, too. Our pen sucked, even with them. No way, am I counting on Henriks and Fulmer to duplicate their production.

At minimum, we need one solid SP'er, who projects to 175+ IP, AND we need two solid RP'ers who can close or be 8th inning set-up men, hopefully one is left-handed. That is 3 must gets.

We can also use a RHB defensive catcher, with some pop would be real nice. A one year deal makes the most sense, with Teel nearing ML readiness.

Swapping 1-2 LHBs for a RHB would help, too, but what position they'd play is in question (CF, RF, 2B and the already mentioned Catcher positions come to mind.)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

But who are your favorite trade chips that might actually interest other teams?

All of these guys would interest almost every team.

What are you getting at?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

But who are your favorite trade chips that might actually interest other teams?

You have to give up something supposedly good to get something supposedly good back, and it’s a lot cheaper then going out, and signing high priced FA, which would be more to the liking of JH IMO. Masa, Abreu, and some of the utility guys are not going to cut it.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

All of these guys would interest almost every team.

What are you getting at?

Interest yes, but all have different degrees of what they will bring back by themselves, or packaged.

[Bellhorn04]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

With Betts, there were only two reported offers.   and neither was particularly dazzling…

Right, but what I'm saying is Betts wasn't traded until February, and I think if they had started shopping him, right after the season we would have known about it.

Soto was traded in the first week of December.

[Bellhorn04]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, word was DD almost traded Betts, at the deadline in 2019, but a winning stretch put it on hold.

I think the details on this are pretty sketchy.  

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do not think we should undersell the loss of Pivetta. He was 4th in IP, this year and 3rd in bWAR. He was a horse in previous seasons. Thinking Gio will match his numbers scares me.

Losing our two best RP'ers from 2023-2024 scares me, too. Our pen sucked, even with them. No way, am I counting on Henriks and Fulmer to duplicate their production.

I agree, we should all be scared about what the 2025 pitching staff is going to look like.

My expectations are through the floor. 

[moonslav59]

One massively expensive RHB contract is Trout's. He's way to expensive for JH to pay, and he seems to refuse to be moved from CF, and would likely refuse to DH. He's owed $37M a year until 2030 (6 more years!) His lux tax hit is $35M.

Even giving LAA Yoshida at $18M x 3, would hardly put a dent into what Trout is paid and will be worth. He just turned 33 and is always hurt- just what we need, right?

Anyway, what might a Yoshida for Trout deal look like? How much money would LAA have to pay, beyond the $54M they get in Yoshida? Would adding T Anderson at 413M x 1, lessen the payback amount and sweeten the pot for the Sox?

I think he's owed $222M/6. Minus $54M for Yoshida and Maybe another $54M paid years 4-6 would bring the cost to us down to about $19M a year and $17M CBT. I still would not do it. Add T Anderson, and I'd still say no, even if he agreed to DH fulltime.

Trout looks like the next Pujols, or maybe he already is him.

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

But who are your favorite trade chips that might actually interest other teams?

I would consider trading anyone for the right trade. The hardest pieces to deal would be Anthony and Houck, but everyone else would be available IMO.