A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Are abreau Devers, romy and yoshida starting on the DL????

I think Yoshida, but not sure on the others.

 

[moonslav59]

Word is, according to MLBTR, Fitts has won the 4 slot.

Newcomb and Priester are fighting for the 5 slot.

Ottavino & Moore will not make the opening day roster and have a May 1st date for a decision to be made. (Neither are on the 40.)

Fulmer and Zavala are not going to be on the roster, either. MLBTR also reported....

In some interesting behind-the-scenes Red Sox news, The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey detailed some of the many organizational changes Craig Breslow has overseen since being hired as Boston’s chief baseball officer in the fall of 2023.  Breslow has conducted something of an overhaul of several different departments within baseball options, ranging from installing new department heads to entirely changing how certain divisions operate.  The perception is that the Sox are adopting more of an analytical-based approach, as evidenced by staffing increases to the research and development department and cuts made within the various scouting divisions.

 

[Larry Cook]

Our offense will have to carry the load early on as we sort through all these injuries 

[moonslav59]

Tanner Bibee had 2 years of control left- like Crochet. He has a 3.25 ERA after 2 seasons and 316 IP.

He just signed an extension:

$2M signing bonus + $3M in 2025

$4M in '26

$7M in '27

$10M in '28

$21M in '29

Club option for '30 at $21M w $1M buyout. $48M is the third most ever given to a 2 year player.

Knowing this, what should Crochet get?

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Tanner Bibee had 2 years of control left- like Crochet. He has a 3.25 ERA after 2 seasons and 316 IP.

He just signed an extension:

$2M signing bonus + $3M in 2025

$4M in '26

$7M in '27

$10M in '28

$21M in '29

Club option for '30 at $21M w $1M buyout. $48M is the third most ever given to a 2 year player.

Knowing this, what should Crochet get?

I don't know what he "should" get, but I'm sure he's thinking a lot bigger than that. 

Per Chris Cotillo: "There is believed to be a large gap between the sides at present."

Looks like the real question is what he'll be looking for if he has a 6 WAR, fully healthy 2025.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

50 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know what he "should" get, but I'm sure he's thinking a lot bigger than that. 

Per Chris Cotillo: "There is believed to be a large gap between the sides at present."

Looks like the real question is what he'll be looking for if he has a 6 WAR, fully healthy 2025.

Crochet will want a Yamamoto contract, so the Red Sox will pre-empt and offer $200 million in late summer of 2026, knowing his agent will laugh. That way, when he counters with $300M, they can trade him to LA for a teenage catching prospect named Posada Ups.

The Dodgers will then immediately extend Crochet for $301 million. They already have a special account where they're stashing profits from worldwide merchandising, just waiting to fund the Croquet of Pigs.

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Tanner Bibee had 2 years of control left- like Crochet. He has a 3.25 ERA after 2 seasons and 316 IP.

He just signed an extension:

$2M signing bonus + $3M in 2025

$4M in '26

$7M in '27

$10M in '28

$21M in '29

Club option for '30 at $21M w $1M buyout. $48M is the third most ever given to a 2 year player.

Knowing this, what should Crochet get?

Checked into this and there's actually a large difference with Crochet.

2025 was Bibee's last pre-arbitration year.  His arb years were 2026, 2027 and 2028.

So the Guardians had 4 years of control left, not 2.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Checked into this and there's actually a large difference with Crochet.

2025 was Bibee's last pre-arbitration year.  His arb years were 2026, 2027 and 2028.

So the Guardians had 4 years of control left, not 2.

 

So they only bought out one year of free agency and avoided all arbitration…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

So they only bought out one year of free agency and avoided all arbitration…

Yes, thanks for the correction. That makes a huge difference. I was wondering why he got so little.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't know what he "should" get, but I'm sure he's thinking a lot bigger than that. 

Per Chris Cotillo: "There is believed to be a large gap between the sides at present."

Looks like the real question is what he'll be looking for if he has a 6 WAR, fully healthy 2025.

i would go as high as 30-32 million per on a 5-6 yr deal. that would protect us somewhat and also allow Crochet to become a FA at 31 or 32. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i would go as high as 30-32 million per on a 5-6 yr deal. that would protect us somewhat and also allow Crochet to become a FA at 31 or 32. 

That's $160M/5 or $185M/6

Since the two arb years remaining would likely get him $25-30M/2, the extension would be more like $130M/3 or $154M/4. That comes to about $39-42M a year, for the year beyond our current control.

I'm thinking more like $140M/5 or $175M/6. The extension parts would break down to $110M/3 or $145M/4 or about $36-38M a year.

[Randy Red Sox]

Whatever it takes.  This a 25 yr old stud and right now maybe the best SP in MLB. If the Sox let him get away it will be worse than Babe Ruth trust me. 

[harmony]

An extension would be risky for a 25-year-old left-hander with only one year of experience as a starter.

Seventeen months ago Baseball Trade Values assigned Garrett Crochet a negative value in this proposed trade to Seattle:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/146753

Crochet's value skyrocketed after he averaged 4.56 innings in 32 starts over his impressive 2024 season.

In a market that increasingly values bulk, will Crochet provide the bulk to justify a big contract?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

An extension would be risky for a 25-year-old left-hander with only one year of experience as a starter.

Seventeen months ago Baseball Trade Values assigned Garrett Crochet a negative value in this proposed trade to Seattle:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/146753

Crochet's value skyrocketed after he averaged 4.56 innings in 32 starts over his impressive 2024 season.

In a market that increasingly values bulk, will Crochet provide the bulk to justify a big contract?

It's based on his downright nasty stuff and not much more.