A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

or keep him and sign a pitcher this winter. 

I think they will sign a pitcher, maybe two or three...

But I don't think they will pay market value for an actual good one.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Raffy might also turn into Mr. Aches and Pains.  He had a bunch of issues this year.

We could go back and forth on this for a long time.

It's all in Brez's hands.  He's got a lot to figure out.

I will however place my bet that Duran doesn't get traded.

 

Agent Bell you do present a good case.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Sell high" as a methodology is bullfeathers 😉, folks, any good investor knows that.  Warren Buffett said you can't time the market.  That's not how you make your decisions.    

No, but the need does, and also the cost of going out, and buying a good starting pitcher  on the open market, which I can’t see JH giving the OK to do.

[Bellhorn04]

Although it's not likely to happen, I like moon's idea of trading Yoshida to the Jays, bringing back Gausman, throwing in some money or another player to make it happen.  To me that's the kind of creative move Breslow should be looking at.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Although it's not likely to happen, I like moon's idea of trading Yoshida to the Jays, bringing back Gausman, throwing in some money or another player to make it happen.  To me that's the kind of creative move Breslow should be looking at.

Why does some on here think Masa is in high demand out there for the same reasons that you want the Red Sox to get rid of him?🙈

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Why does some on here think Masa is in high demand out there for the same reasons that you want the Red Sox to get rid of him?🙈

I don’t think anyone thinks Yoshida is in demand.  Most (all?) of the deals being thrown around include other players, money, or both.  That’s not exactly a sign of selling high.

And even then most acknowledge they’re still questionable…

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The radical move is trading Duran -- but he's the one guy who will bring back the best haul.

And I'm not even consulting a website that ranks players by assigning numerical trade values. 

Jarren Duran, All-Star MVP, was one of the top five baseball players in the world this year. He's in his prime right now, but maybe not quite young enough to be part of the core of the next great Red Sox team (only a year younger than Tyler O'Neill and Dom Smith..).

Will the Red Sox be worse without Duran, but with another good pitcher in the starting rotation, Roman Anthony in LF, and Campbell or Grissom at 2B?

 

I did not mention Duran in my 4 trade choices, but certainly he'd bring back a major pitcher- even a better one than Casas would, and maybe the others, too.

I don't view Duran like I did Ellsbury, when we let him walk, and I actually think he might even get better (more HRs.) When I look at any of our blue chip trade candidates, one-by-one, I want to keep them all. I also realize we run a great risk that the one we choose to trade might end up being better than all the ones we keep, and we'll regret the trade, alter on, but to me, the biggest risk is on who we choose to  trade for. Pitchers get injured, so easily, that will always be a risk, but the way I see it, the bigger risk is not trading for a solid pitcher.

Nobody knows anything for sure in baseball, but I feel very confident that we cannot win without at least 2 major additions to our 13 man staff. It might really be 3. I don't see Jh forking over the money needed for the 2-3 pitchers I envision, and the FA market seems to more risky, since the pitchers are older and maybe on the cusp of decline or injury.

What makes the choice to trade a blue-chipper a no-brainer, to me, is the point you brought up at the end. No way do I want to part with Duran. (He's probably on the top of my keeper list.) But, the "step down" from Duran to Anthony, who would take his place, is way less than the amount of the step up from Fitts to the ace we get. It also make Fitts the 6th starter, not the 5th and improves our depth or pen.

I've repeated my bottleneck points, too often, already, but we just plain can't play everybody, at once. The key is picking the right one(s) to trade, and getting the right one(s) in return.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I don’t think anyone thinks Yoshida is in demand.  Most (all?) of the deals being thrown around include other players, money, or both.  That’s not exactly a sign of selling high.

And even then most acknowledge they’re still questionable…

Absolutely nobody thinks Yoshida is even in moderate or mild demand, but there is a chance a GM would take him at $2-5M a year, or at no cost, if the return cancels out all of Yoshida's cost. We could also add cash or take back a more expensive player to create a situation where we are paying the other team to take Yoshida, but we get back a pitcher that can help us.

Let's just take the Gausman for Yoshida, Abreu and some cash trade, and even if you think TOR would say no, just think of the idea of such a trade.

Instead of trading Yoshida and $15M a year to another team for some long shot single A pitcher, just to add $3M a year to our winter spending budget, this was we pay $3M a year, lose Abreu and get a guy like Gausman in return. TOR saves money and gets 5 years on Abreu, plus whatever Yoshida gives them.It's just a theory, and will likely never happen, but the offseason has begun, and suggestions are all we got.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

or keep him and sign a pitcher this winter. 

Did we trade for a new owner? 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Even if the Sox trade Casas, it hardly guarantees they move Devers to 1b.

 

I am also not so sure the Sox have labeled Casas as the “next logical step” in trade bait.  They did try to extend him a year ago for a reason

All correct, and I did not mean to imply they will do as I suggest in this one scenario. They may see the Devers moves to 1B as being years away, but I can't help but think they know his 3B defense is a major liability, as is Casas at 1B. Those two positions are not as important on defense as middle infield and CF/RF and catcher, but if improving the defense is a goal, to me only catcher and corner infield look to be on the agenda.

Middle infield may fix itself with a healthy season from Story, alone, but adding Mayer and Campbell to the mix could help as well. An OF of Duran, Rafaela and Abreu with Anthony joining soon is already one of the best defensive OFs in all of MLB, if not THE best. With Teel in the system, maybe a temporary fix at catcher might be the only external move we make to improve our defense.

Shifting players around offers a non-external option, and opens up questions that cannot be answered, until we see it happen.

Devers may be no better than Casas at 1B, but the plan was to move Casas to DH, anyway, so if Devers looks worse, we simply move him to DH and keep the same exact rotten D at 1B as we already have. No change in D at 1B, but the suggestion assumes whoever we put at 3B (Campbell, Mayer, Meidroth of even Romy/Sogar) would almost surely be better on D than Devers. I simply cannot imagine anyone being worse.

Hey, how about Yoshida plus others to STL for Arenado? He is at a $30.5 AAV x 2, but makes $32M x 2. That's $64M for the $54M owed Yoshida. Add Abreu and maybe a little cash, and maybe STL agrees. This would not free up the 3B slot for our bottlenecked middle infield, but our defense would be greatly improved, no matter who plays 1B.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Sell high" as a methodology is bullfeathers 😉, folks, any good investor knows that.  Warren Buffett said you can't time the market.  That's not how you make your decisions.    

I don't want my baseball team to be treated like an investment. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I think they will sign a pitcher, maybe two or three...

But I don't think they will pay market value for an actual good one.

Three relievers? Sure. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Did we trade for a new owner? 

JH is the main reason I am focusing on trades to improve pitching, at this point in the offseason.

That and the bottleneck of talent we have at middle IF and OF.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

JH is the main reason I am focusing on trades to improve pitching, at this point in the offseason.

That and the bottleneck of talent we have at middle IF and OF.

I don't think the MIF is a huge bottleneck concern considering all of the injury issues that group has. 

[Duran Is The Man]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Did we trade for a new owner? 

gawd, i wish.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the MIF is a huge bottleneck concern considering all of the injury issues that group has. 

Good point, and DHam/Romy are not part of any high-skilled bottleneck.  It's basically 3 guys with 2 having major injury concerns. Grissom offers some hope at 2B, and if DHam can take another step up, he's be fine at 2B.

SS: Mayer & Story

2B: Story & Campbell

We can roll the dice by trading Mayer or Campbell and still have 2. I'd choose to trade Mayer, since Campbell is less of an injury risk, but I'm not sure how well Campbell can play SS, if Story gets hurt again. Choosing Campbell would allow Mayer to play SS (assuming both aren't hurt at the same time) and then use Grissom-Dham at 2B, which might not be all that bad.

Our middle IF has been such a mess, the last 2 years, it's pushing it to say we have a bottleneck of talent, when 2 are unproven prospects.

[Bellhorn04]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't want my baseball team to be treated like an investment. 

"Sell high" is treating it like a get-rich-quick investment.

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Sell high" is treating it like a get-rich-quick investment.

No Agent Bell selling high would be to improve the club. Whatever it takes to Improve the pitching, which will improve the club. No untouchables, and that includes Duran, and that includes Raffy. The Red Sox are not going out, and sign any high priced FA IMO, so trading is the cheapest way to go. The Red Sox have finished out of the postseason 3 years in a row with Duran, and with Raffy, so let’s make some trades to try, and improve. Get better, and then you might get richer. Win, win for everyone.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No Agent Bell selling high would be to improve the club. Whatever it takes to Improve the pitching, which will improve the club. No untouchables, and that includes Duran, and that includes Raffy. The Red Sox are not going out, and sign any high priced FA IMO, so trading is the cheapest way to go. The Red Sox have finished out of the postseason 3 years in a row with Duran, and with Raffy, so let’s make some trades to try, and improve. Get better, and then you might get richer. Win, win for everyone.

Are we talking a straight-up wager on whether they trade Duran or not, Wheeler Dealer Red? 😁

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Are we talking a straight-up wager on whether they trade Duran or not, Wheeler Dealer Red? 😁

No! I’m just saying there should be no untouchables in a trade to improve the club. You have a problem with that Agent Bell, because you have an attachment to Duran, which I do not.  Last year you were an Agent for Monty, and this year it’s Duran, and don’t try to stretch things like you did yesterday, and say I said there was a Guaranteed replacement for Duran if he gets traded. I don’t give a damm on who goes, and who stays as long as the Red Sox get better. That’s all. Nothing more, and nothing less.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No! I’m just saying there should be no untouchables in a trade to improve the club. You have a problem with that Agent Bell, because you have an attachment to Duran, which I do not.  Last year you were an Agent for Monty, and this year it’s Duran, and don’t try to stretch things like you did yesterday, and say I said there was a Guaranteed replacement for Duran if he gets traded. I don’t give a damm on who goes, and who stays as long as the Red Sox get better. That’s all. Nothing more, and nothing less.

Trading your best player doesn't usually make you better.  To me that's a pretty simple concept too.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading your best player doesn't usually make you better.  To me that's a pretty simple concept too.

Best player for 1 year. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading your best player doesn't usually make you better.  To me that's a pretty simple concept too.

I get the idea of Duran being a more valuable trade chip.  But any team that wants him won’t be dealing their pitching…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Sell high" is treating it like a get-rich-quick investment.

No. Players like Duran fall back to Earth all the time. Either decide they want to keep him around long term or deal him. Not sure they’ve made that decision yet.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Best player for 1 year. 

He was also very good in 2023.

What reason is there to think he won't stay good?

None - except wheeler dealer hunches. 😄

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I get the idea of Duran being a more valuable trade chip.  But any team that wants him won’t be dealing their pitching…

Only other teams are able to deal for top tier pitching not the Sox I guess??? Is that in the new CBA?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He was also very good in 2023.

What reason is there to think he won't stay good?

None - except wheeler dealer hunches. 😄

2023 Duran was less valuable than 2024 Rafaela or Abreu.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only other teams are able to deal for top tier pitching not the Sox I guess??? Is that in the new CBA?

If the Sox are dealing for top tier pitching, other teams are asking for members of the Fab Four, not Duran Duran.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only other teams are able to deal for top tier pitching not the Sox I guess??? Is that in the new CBA?

Most of those teams dealt prospects, not their 8WAR outfielder…

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Most of those teams dealt prospects, not their 8WAR outfielder…

The Duran Dealers fall a little short in the logic department.  😁