A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

It won’t.  Teams don’t trade those players for outfielders coming off career years…

i agree but that is the only way i trade him.  this team has to get at least 1 more young top SP to go with Bello, and Houck

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, notin said:

They traded Mookie without getting any pitching, and somehow you call THIS absurd?!?

 

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, logic fail.

Since the Red Sox would be giving up those 4 years, you have an offsetting argument for keeping him.

 

they had a shot at a decent RP but held outstay for Jeter Downs lol

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Duran would be dumb because:

a) this is a team that still needs offense in a big way

b) there are other ways to acquire pitching which this team has-prospects and money

 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I think Story made a strong case for improving the defense.  But, guess what?  When Story returned in September and played in the final 18 games, during which his defense was superb and of great value to the Sox, they went 8-10.  And those 10 losses were mostly because the hitting went south.  The average runs scored by the Sox over those 18 games (in which Story played) in September was 3.83.  

Also, my point is that the Sox need to be among the top 5 in MLB in runs scored to be competitive.  Moreover, I honestly don't think they can get into the top 5 if their lineup is dominated with lefty bats as in fact it was this season.   2021 is worth mentioning because it was the last time the Sox made it to the postseason, when they also made it to the ALCS after beating the Yankees and RAys.  The 2021 Sox were ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored and--wait for it--15th in team ERA!!!!!!!  And guess where they were ranked in defense?  29th with the 2d most errors in MLB.  

So I strongly disagree with "rolling the dice" on hitting, especially when we know that Mayer, Anthony, and Teel are all lefty hitters.  

The thing is, the three lefty prospects do not have a history of hitting poorly vs LHPs, and certainly not .515 (like Abreu) or .583 (like Duran.)

We will not and should not count on Anthony to be a platoon player. If ends up being one, so be it, but we cannot afford to spend on a RH'd OF'er over a pitcher "just in case" he is.

Trading Abreu, alone, and replacing him with more OF PAs from Rafaela and Anthony would go a long way at fixing our issue with LHPs. No more of DHam (.532 v L) and E Valdez (.296 v L) will help. too. Replacing those PAs with PAs by RHBs Story and Campbell could and should provide a huge boost vs LHPs. I don't really see this as a dice roll, although I did use that term in an overall sense. I also suggested we add a RHB catcher with some pop to bridge to Teel. (We'd still have RHB Wong as Teel's back-up and possible R-L platoon at catcher.)

A lot depends on the winter spending budget. I'm going on the assumprion it will be tight, again, and I have more faith in Anthony v R & L, Mayer v R & L, Campbell vs L & R and maybe Meidroth and Teel (plus the return of Story & Grissom) to replace O'Neill than I do in Fitts, Priester, Guerrero and Penrod taking the places of Pivetta, Jansen and Martin. 

Maybe "roll the dice" was not a right way to put it, but to me, not concentrating almost all of our resources on pitching would be the actual dice roll.

 

 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading Duran would be dumb because:

a) this is a team that still needs offense in a big way

b) there are other ways to acquire pitching which this team has-prospects and money

 

I don't disagree, but one could certainly think 6 years of Anthony will outproduce 4 years of Duran.

Duran does have split  issues, but I don't see him as being the "flash" Ellsbury turned out to be.

[notin]

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading Duran would be dumb because:

a) this is a team that still needs offense in a big way

b) there are other ways to acquire pitching which this team has-prospects and money

 

But my point is you said you don’t get better by trading your best player.  San Diego did exactly that.

To me, Duran falls into the universal “in the right deal” category. ..

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

But my point is you said you don’t get better by trading your best player.  San Diego did exactly that.

To me, Duran falls into the universal “in the right deal” category. ..

I guess, if we get an ace and replace Duran with Anthony, the step down to Anthony should be less than the step up we get from the SP'er over Fitts as our #5. (In theory.)

Note: I am not for trading Duran. The kid does too much on the field, at the plate and on the bases to part with, but I do think anyone and everyone can be traded, if the return is better and fills a bigger need.

I think trading Anthony is just as big of a risk. Trading Mayer, Campbell or Teel might be equally as risky, due to another 1-2 years of control over Duran.

I do not see trading Arias, Cespedes or Bleis, now, when their stock might be low is worth what we'd get back. I've mentioned trading Abreu, DHam and Wink, but even all together, we won't get a top pitcher in return.

We need to bite the bullet and choose one to trade from: Casas, Mayer, Teel, Duran, Campbell or Anthony. Houck is a top 7 trade chip, but we need SP'ing, so I don't include him.

I seriously doubt any of these guys get traded, but to me, it will probably take trading one to get us what we need. I'm certainly not counting on JH to fork over the money needed to buy a top pitcher or two.

[notin]

Like I said before, Duran belongs in the @in the right deal” catch-all pile…

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Like I said before, Duran belongs in the @in the right deal” catch-all pile…

We can put everyone in that pile, I guess, if we assume there are other teams out there who are prepared to give back more than they get.

But in general the best approach is to trade from an area of surplus to strengthen an area of need.

 

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, but one could certainly think 6 years of Anthony will outproduce 4 years of Duran.

I'd prefer not to put Anthony and Campbell in the position of being the kids who are coming to save our offense.

 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We can put everyone in that pile, I guess, if we assume there are other teams out there who are prepared to give back more than they get.

But in general the best approach is to trade from an area of surplus to strengthen an area of need.

 

Are you sure you’re opposed to trading Duran?  
 

The Sox surplus right now is definitely outfield…

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Are you sure you’re opposed to trading Duran?  
 

The Sox surplus right now is definitely outfield…

If we're just talking about bodies, sure.

What we don't have is a surplus of offense.

We sure as hell don't have a surplus of 8 win position players.  His speed and defense obviously contributed a lot to his WAR.  I think it's kind of nice to have a guy with Duran's 
OPS, speed and defense.

Really not sure why so many are so anxious to see him go...

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i am pretty sure the Sox would really like to get off the Story contract as well.

Perhaps.  He sure hasn't done much his first 3 seasons.  On the other hand, we have absolutely seen him make a difference on defense, especially at SS and especially on DP's.  Plus he is a righty bat who, before he came to the Sox, hit pretty well. 

Yoshida, on the other hand, is a lefty bat, which we don't need, and a liability on defense and must therefore DH.  I would not hesitate to pay 2/3 of his salary to go elsewhere.  

[Maxbialystock]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Are you sure you’re opposed to trading Duran?  
 

The Sox surplus right now is definitely outfield…

Two surplus areas:  outfielders and lefty bats.  I would not hesitate to trade Abreu and/or Duran--but Duran only if the Sox get someone substantial in return.  

[Maxbialystock]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd prefer not to put Anthony and Campbell in the position of being the kids who are coming to save our offense.

 

Completely agree.  I would trade Anthony before Campbell because Anthony is a lefty bat.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd prefer not to put Anthony and Campbell in the position of being the kids who are coming to save our offense.

 

I don't think it needs to be saved, but I'm also not saying I have complete confidence in it.

I do not think clutch hitting is a skill-set, so I hope we do better there, next year.

I'm going on the assumption that we have a limited winter budget and trading prospects or top producers is a long shot. I look at who we have and who we are losing. We lose one big bat and he's RH'd: O'Neill. That is nothing to neglect, but when I look at who we have to possibly replace him, I am more encouraged than when I look at who we have to replace Pivetta (our #2 fWAR SP'er), Jansen (our only clear closer) and Martin, our second best RP'er from 2023-2024.

If the wallet is open wider than I expect, then maybe we can work on adding a solid RH bat for CF/RF, 2B or Catcher, but to me I have way less faith in Fitts/Priester /Dobbins to fill Pivetta's slot than Abreu-Ref, more OF time for Rafaela, plus Anthony & Campbell to fill O'Neill's void.

I may be over simplifying things, but it seems like a very clear advantage to the bats. I maybe be wearing pink glasses to be hoping Story, Grissom and Campbell can take up a big chunk of O'Neill's bat v LHPs, but to me, my glasses are gray when looking at Fitts, Criswell, Priester and Dobbins.

We could see an uptick from Houck, Bello and Crawford, and or a good year from Giolito in his big contract year coming up, but we need all 4 to come true and still need a 5th. That need is much greater than a RHB need or any positional need, other than catcher. With Teel in the wings, I can't see any catcher being added beyond a 1 year deal. What can we get for a one year RH power bat, catcher? Name one, and maybe I'll prioritize him above the second pitcher we need.

I see our priorities as such:

1. Solid SP (1-2 slot)

Big gap...

2. Closer or solid set-up RP'er (LH'd would be a big plus)

3. Another solid RP'er (if #2 is not a lefty, this one should be.)

Moderate gap...

4. RHB (Catcher more than OF or 2B)

5. Pitching depth

Tell me what slots you'd move around. I'm not pretending to be an expert on this.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think it needs to be saved, but I'm also not saying I have complete confidence in it.

I do not think clutch hitting is a skill-set, so I hope we do better there, next year.

It's not just the clutch hitting.  It's having one of the worst K/BB ratios in MLB.  It's having a .654 OPS in September.  

Now just imagine how our 2024 offense would have looked without Duran.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Completely agree.  I would trade Anthony before Campbell because Anthony is a lefty bat.  

To me, the bigger reason to trade Anthony over Campbell is the larger return.

I'm not so sure Campbell hits much better than Anthony vs LHPs, and we faced a LH'd starter 43 times, this year, which is only about 1/4th of our games.

POR vs LHPs

.893 Anthony (9th best in Eastern League)

.813 Teel (17th)

Campbell was at .865 but did not qualify for rankings.

with smaller sample sizes at WOO:

.925 Anthony

.810 Campbell

.431 Teel

It's not always about being a RHB when it comes to hitting better vs LHPs.

(I'd like to keep both and trade Casas or Mayer.)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not just the clutch hitting.  It's having one of the worst K/BB ratios in MLB.  It's having a .654 OPS in September.  

Now just imagine how our 2024 offense would have looked without Duran.

Yes, the late season drop offs are very concerning, but nothings is more concerning that our pitching, IMO.

To me, our 5-8 RP'ers should be our 8-11 RP'ers or even 9-12. I'd add a top 2 RPer and other top 4 RP'er, which would push back a couple of our top 4 into lower slots. We need a SP'er, badly. While I like Fitts, Priester and Criswell, I have way less confidence in them combined than just one of Anthony or Campbell and maybe even the oft-injured Mayer.

Every concern you note about our bats can be easily doubled or even tripled when taking about our rotation and pen.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not just the clutch hitting.  It's having one of the worst K/BB ratios in MLB.  It's having a .654 OPS in September.  

Now just imagine how our 2024 offense would have looked without Duran.

Duran was a big part of that September disappearing act…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran was a big part of that September disappearing act…

Yup. In Sept...

1.186 Ref (just 19 PAs)

.882 Sogard (30)

.790 Story (72)

.790 Casas (76)

.787 Grissom (27)

.774 O'Neill (84 and a FA)

.700 Wong (83)

 

.657 Romy (55)

.633 Yoshida (78)

.618 Jansen (38)

 

.593 Duran (115)

.517 Abreu (78)

.512 Rafela (69)

.496 Devers (75, playing hurt)

 

.367 E Valdez (34)

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If we're just talking about bodies, sure.

What we don't have is a surplus of offense.

We sure as hell don't have a surplus of 8 win position players.  His speed and defense obviously contributed a lot to his WAR.  I think it's kind of nice to have a guy with Duran's 
OPS, speed and defense.

Really not sure why so many are so anxious to see him go...

I am not so sure folks want him gone like they do Yoshida.

The feeling most likely is “this might be as good as he gets” and he definitely won’t be getting cheaper.  So why not capitalize?

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess, if we get an ace and replace Duran with Anthony, the step down to Anthony should be less than the step up we get from the SP'er over Fitts as our #5. (In theory.)

Note: I am not for trading Duran. The kid does too much on the field, at the plate and on the bases to part with, but I do think anyone and everyone can be traded, if the return is better and fills a bigger need.

I think trading Anthony is just as big of a risk. Trading Mayer, Campbell or Teel might be equally as risky, due to another 1-2 years of control over Duran.

I do not see trading Arias, Cespedes or Bleis, now, when their stock might be low is worth what we'd get back. I've mentioned trading Abreu, DHam and Wink, but even all together, we won't get a top pitcher in return.

We need to bite the bullet and choose one to trade from: Casas, Mayer, Teel, Duran, Campbell or Anthony. Houck is a top 7 trade chip, but we need SP'ing, so I don't include him.

I seriously doubt any of these guys get traded, but to me, it will probably take trading one to get us what we need. I'm certainly not counting on JH to fork over the money needed to buy a top pitcher or two.

I think anyone is tradeable right now if for no other reason than that, with Mayer, Anthony, Teel, and Campbell just about MLB-ready--to say nothing of Devers, Duran, Casas, Abreu, Story, Wong, O'Neill, Refsnyder (maybe), Yoshida, Rafaela, et al already on the active roster-- the Sox in 2025 are almost certain to have more players than they need.  You have made that case repeatedly, and I agree with you.  

Plus it is unarguable that the Sox need pitching, especially starters, and one or more good righty bats.  

With that said, there is still the risk of making a dumb deal., which Breslow has already demonstrated he can do.  Last year he dumped Sale--with $17M in cash--and picked up Giolito.  

You have also gone to the trouble of showing there is money that could be spent if JH is willing.  

And I have reminded everyone that, after 17 straight seasons (2003-2019) of averaging roughly 36,000 in attendance, the Sox had zero attendance in 2020, 21,000 in 2021, and 32,500 per season in 2022-2024.  That attendance tells JH that the fans, the ones who actually pay all the bills and make the Sox worth $4.5B or so, are getting tired of not making the postseason.  

Actually, I think the Sox fans who go to games at Fenway are actually pretty stupid anyway, but that's another story (which I've already told twice).  

[moonslav59]

The Sale trade and Gio signings both went about as badly as anyone could even imagine. There is no sugar coating this. I'm not sure this means Brez cannot be trusted with any future deals or signings. It's a worry, for sure, as is any major deal made by any GM.

Everybody oohs and ahhs about the Dodgers doing what it takes, but imagine what Sox fans would be saying, now, if we had splurged for Yamamoto,

DD resigned Nola, who did well, but he also led his league in HRs allowed, and a 3.94 FIP is nothing all that great.

The SFG spent bid on J-H Lee who did squat. They did much better with the Champan signings (the 10th highest contract handed out in 2024.)

Josh hader did well, but did not help HOU get very far.

ERod and Bellinger were the 6th highest paid signings. Meh.

Blake Snell was #9.

All-in-all the Ohtani , Gray and Chapman signings look like the only good top 10 signings, so far.

I do think Brez out-Bloomed Bloom. His lesser deals are off to very good starts or still show some promise.

Ammons for Slaten looks like a major steal for Brez.

The Criswell signing for squat looks real good, even if he does nothing more for us, going forward.

Dugo for Fitts, Weissert and Judice looks like it should be worthwhile and possibly a real good trade.

Santos and Robertson for one year of O'Neill worked pretty well. People are saying O'Neill may now get a 4-5 year deal for over $70-80M.

Schreiber for sandlin looks very promising.

Urias for I Campbell did not start off well, at all, although Urias did nothing, too, but Campbell has several years of control left.

All of these, combined, do NOT outweigh what we got from the Sale trade- year one, or the Gio signing- year one, but we may still get some value from those two, next year and beyond with Grissom.

I can't say I have complete faith in Brez on his next biggest deals, but I'm not using his first two to suggest he should avoid making any more big deals.

I'm hoping he makes one big trade and one big signing, and they work. The return of Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer might end up working out well, too.

[Larry Cook]

On 10/4/2024 at 9:52 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

"Sell high" as a methodology is bullfeathers 😉, folks, any good investor knows that.  Warren Buffett said you can't time the market.  That's not how you make your decisions.    

What a great run buffet had though 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, notin said:

Duran does have 4 years of control left.  Without you runnng out and getting hired by some MLB team, what team would want him that has surplus pitching?

 

Id think if Duran did get dealt, it would be for prospect talent with the intention of flipping it for pitching.  Until Henry told Breslow to keep those cheap prospects, too…

So a three team trade then?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

What a great run buffet had though 

I think he "timed the market" more often than not.

[Larry Cook]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he "timed the market" more often than not.

Buffet and Charlie munger =180 years old experience. Makes your head hurt!!!

i would be happy if bres-slow could time the trade and free agent market with that kind of success 

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, notin said:

I am not so sure folks want him gone like they do Yoshida.

The feeling most likely is “this might be as good as he gets” and he definitely won’t be getting cheaper.  So why not capitalize?

Because "feeling" is exactly the right way to describe it.  "Hunch" is also a perfect fit.

[Bellhorn04]

2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement:

Duran 32.8

Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year)

O'Neill 16.0 (free agent)

Refsnyder 9.4

Abreu 8.4

Wong 5.5

Yoshida 4.6

Hamilton 3.4

Casas 3.0

Story 0.1

Talksox Intelligentsia: "Trade Duran!" 😄

Sorry guys but you really gave me a new toy to play with here.