A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Enmanuel Valdez traded to PIT for RHP Joe Vogatsky. He was drafted 19th by PIT in the amateur draft out of James Madison U. He did not play any proball, this past summer. He's projected as a pen arm.

The Sox only made this trade so Henry wouldn’t have to pay Valdez!!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The Sox only made this trade so Henry wouldn’t have to pay Valdez!!

LOL. I knew we'd get someone for him. I have no idea on the hopes of the pitcher we got, but I like the idea of continued rebalancing of our system towards pitching.

3 everyday players and Wikelman for Crochet

Yorke for Priester

Dugo for Fitts, Weissert and Judice

Trade of Rule 5 Slaten

The Luis Garcia rental trade did not work out, but the effort was made to rebalance.

[Larry Cook]

I agree! Projecting the 13 pitchers is impossible even after training camp starts!!!

to me the theme the last two years has been. Poor starting starting burns out the bullpen by July every year!!  
The goal for 2025 pitching should be 

1.) improve the top of the rotation. 
2.) build a deeper bullpen or more arms that can go multiple innings!!! 

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not really.  He had 4 Game Scores of 50 or better in September.  Looks more to me like a guy who was gradually finding his stuff again.

we have certainly taken gambles on guys far worse than this

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The Sox only made this trade so Henry wouldn’t have to pay Valdez!!

there is that benefit lol even though i know you are kidding

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I agree! Projecting the 13 pitchers is impossible even after training camp starts!!!

to me the theme the last two years has been. Poor starting starting burns out the bullpen by July every year!!  
The goal for 2025 pitching should be 

1.) improve the top of the rotation. 
2.) build a deeper bullpen or more arms that can go multiple innings!!! 

Agreed:

Crochet> Pivetta

Chapman = 2024 Martin (maybe)

Wilson= Horn (maybe)

Who replaces Jansen?

Replacing Chase Anderson (11th in IP) and others should be easy, but we are still Jasen short of being close to just even with 2024. Hendriks and a full season from Whitlock could even that out, but we need to better than even with 2024's staff.

Improving the defense would be one way to improve our run prevention for every pitcher, but we seem locked in on keeping Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B. Our middle IF has great potential to significantly improve, if Story stays healthy and Campbell & DHam play most of the 2B innings over Valdez and Grissom. (Last year, Valdez led all 14 players who played 2B in innings!) We also need to improve catcher defense, in a bad way. (Narvaez looks like a good add, but he may just be AAA depth, for 2025.)

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

LOL. I knew we'd get someone for him. I have no idea on the hopes of the pitcher we got, but I like the idea of continued rebalancing of our system towards pitching.

3 everyday players and Wikelman for Crochet

Yorke for Priester

Dugo for Sandlin, Weissert and Judice

Trade of Rule 5 Slaten

The Luis Garcia rental trade did not work out, but the effort was made to rebalance.

Fitts was in the Dugo trade.  We got Sandlin for John Schreiber…

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not really.  He had 4 Game Scores of 50 or better in September.  Looks more to me like a guy who was gradually finding his stuff again.

I had to check out the opponents, since a lot of times you get some AAAA lineups from September non-contenders.  And two of them were against the Angels and Rockies.

But the other two were against the Braves and Padres, which gives him some legitimacy…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Fitts was in the Dugo trade.  We got Sandlin for John Schreiber…

Oops.

[Larry Cook]

As of December 15th our lineup is better than 2024 because: 

1.) crochet is better than pivetta! 
2.) story and casas should be healthy. 
3.) Valdez is gone. 
4.) the Yankee catcher or gaspar should be better than McGuire or Jansen 

As of December 15th our lineup is worse than 2024 because: 

1.) the bullpen is a mess. 
 

Did I miss anything significant? 

[Hitch]

On 12/15/2024 at 12:53 AM, moonslav59 said:

 

Hell, we could sign Burnes and Bregman or Teoscar and nobody else.

And then in a few years time be left with Burnes, Devers, Bregman (Crotchet you'd imagine) earning almost half the wage cap with our talented youngsters hitting arb years. We'd be screwed. 

 

I don't believe these Bregman rumours at all. It just makes too little sense - the money he will cost. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

As of December 15th our lineup is better than 2024 because: 

1.) crochet is better than pivetta! 
2.) story and casas should be healthy. 
3.) Valdez is gone. 
4.) the Yankee catcher or gaspar should be better than McGuire or Jansen 

As of December 15th our lineup is worse than 2024 because: 

1.) the bullpen is a mess. 
 

Did I miss anything significant? 

Better: lost our most frequent whiffer (33.6%); Worse: lost our home run leader (31 HRs)... the preceding player is Tyler O'Neill, signed by Baltimore.

Worse: lost our most infrequent whiffer (12.4%); Better: lost our weakest power-hitting DH (10 HRs)... the preceding is Masa Yoshida, recovering from surgery.

 

 

[Hugh2]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

As of December 15th our lineup is better than 2024 because: 

1.) crochet is better than pivetta! 
2.) story and casas should be healthy. 
3.) Valdez is gone. 
4.) the Yankee catcher or gaspar should be better than McGuire or Jansen 

As of December 15th our lineup is worse than 2024 because: 

1.) the bullpen is a mess. 
 

Did I miss anything significant? 

4.) I would be thrilled if Carlos Narvaez (the Yankee Catchers) was better than McGuire and Jansen.  seeing how his ceiling is that of a defense first back up catcher that would be great.  In my fantasy world I'm imagining he grows into the next Varitek and this is the steal of the century.  From the Yankees??? oh please baseball gods make that happen.

I'm also not sold that the bullpen will be a mess next year.  They effectively are adding Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, and Justin Wilson.  I have high hopes that we could see improvement from Justin Slaten, and rookie contributions from talent such as Luis Guerrero.  Whitlock will be back, and if another starter is added and everyone is healthy someone like Crawford could get pushed to the bullpen as well. 

I still wouldn't mind adding another good bullpen arm.  As they say, you can never have enough pitching. 

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

And then in a few years time be left with Burnes, Devers, Bregman (Crotchet you'd imagine) earning almost half the wage cap with our talented youngsters hitting arb years. We'd be screwed. 

 

I don't believe these Bregman rumours at all. It just makes too little sense - the money he will cost. 

But the Red Sox do actually spend money, and he's not a pitcher so....it actually kind of makes sense. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

And then in a few years time be left with Burnes, Devers, Bregman (Crotchet you'd imagine) earning almost half the wage cap with our talented youngsters hitting arb years. We'd be screwed. 

 

I don't believe these Bregman rumours at all. It just makes too little sense - the money he will cost. 

I doubt we get one of B & B. I was just saying we could.

We might sign Teoscar, Santander or Flaherty to a 4-5 year deal and then some fluff,

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

4.) I would be thrilled if Carlos Narvaez (the Yankee Catchers) was better than McGuire and Jansen.  seeing how his ceiling is that of a defense first back up catcher that would be great.  In my fantasy world I'm imagining he grows into the next Varitek and this is the steal of the century.  From the Yankees??? oh please baseball gods make that happen.

Narvaez is supposed to be real good on defense. I'm not sure how his .360 OBP and near 20 HR power translates. We know the high K rate will.

 

[Hugh2]

I don't think it's completely irrelevant that Bregman was also originally drafted by the Boston Red Sox.  I have no ideal if there are people in power today who were back then who had really liked Bregman but it would not surprise me. 

Reminds me of Wilyer Arbreu, whom the Sox had a deal in place to sign out of Venezuela but that deal was ripped up by MLB because of the penalties they had placed on them that year in IFA.  Years later they traded for him.  Sometimes you just really like a guy. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm also not sold that the bullpen will be a mess next year.  They effectively are adding Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, and Justin Wilson.  I have high hopes that we could see improvement from Justin Slaten, and rookie contributions from talent such as Luis Guerrero.  Whitlock will be back, and if another starter is added and everyone is healthy someone like Crawford could get pushed to the bullpen as well. 

I still wouldn't mind adding another good bullpen arm.  As they say, you can never have enough pitching. 

I do not think Chapman, Hendriks & Wilson are better than Jansen & Martin.

The return of Whitlock may help, a lot, but someone else will get hurt. Crawford to the pen would help, too, but we need a real closer. Chapman, Hendriks and Slaten would be nice set-up guys. Whitlock, Crawford & Wink would be nice 2-3 IP guys. Our pen depth looks okay, to me, as long as we bump everyone down one notch by adding a closer- maybe Scott (FA) of Helsley (trade.)

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think it's completely irrelevant that Bregman was also originally drafted by the Boston Red Sox.  I have no ideal if there are people in power today who were back then who had really liked Bregman but it would not surprise me. 

Reminds me of Wilyer Arbreu, whom the Sox had a deal in place to sign out of Venezuela but that deal was ripped up by MLB because of the penalties they had placed on them that year in IFA.  Years later they traded for him.  Sometimes you just really like a guy. 

FWIW the speculation is that Cora and Kennedy are high on signing Bregman but Breslow is not.
 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do not think Chapman, Hendriks & Wilson are better than Jansen & Martin.

The return of Whitlock may help, a lot, but someone else will get hurt. Crawford to the pen would help, too, but we need a real closer. Chapman, Hendriks and Slaten would be nice set-up guys. Whitlock, Crawford & Wink would be nice 2-3 IP guys. Our pen depth looks okay, to me, as long as we bump everyone down one notch by adding a closer- maybe Scott (FA) of Helsley (trade.)

Relievers are so up and down who knows.  It's not like the bar is set high.  Kenley + Martin had a 2.3 FWar vs. 1.3 from Wilson and Chapman.  If Hendriks comes back healthy they beat that group or even if they tweak something in Chapman or Wilson. 

With all the non consistency in relievers it's really not that hard to believe that two guys can cover a 1 War gap. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FWIW the speculation is that Cora and Kennedy are high on signing Bregman but Breslow is not.
 

Healthy disagreement alone certainly isn't a bad thing, but I'm a little troubled that this was made public. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Relievers are so up and down who knows.  It's not like the bar is set high.  Kenley + Martin had a 2.3 FWar vs. 1.3 from Wilson and Chapman.  If Hendriks comes back healthy they beat that group or even if they tweak something in Chapman or Wilson. 

With all the non consistency in relievers it's really not that hard to believe that two guys can cover a 1 War gap. 

I can agree our pen has the potential to be better and even way better. It's not hard to improve on the worst second half pen in MLB.

We'd need near perfect health, bounce back years from Hendriks, Whitlock and others, AND a rotation that goes deep and does not create "pen games." If we sign a solid SP'er, we should have a nice and deep rotation with Crawford joining the pen and helping there, too. We could also see Criswell do well in the pen. We have some wild cards like Guerrero, Penrod, Weissert and even non 40 man guys: I Campbell & Mata. I think Slaten is poised to be a very nice set up man.

To me, add a closer and the rest of the pen looks much nice- knocked down one notch. As is, I would not project our pen as being top 15.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Healthy disagreement alone certainly isn't a bad thing, but I'm a little troubled that this was made public. 

You have to ask, why and who would leak this information. What purpose would is have?

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, notin said:

The Sox only made this trade so Henry wouldn’t have to pay Valdez!!

El Cheapo

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Healthy disagreement alone certainly isn't a bad thing, but I'm a little troubled that this was made public. 

Sam leaked it 100%. Made to make Breslow look bad. 

[Hitch]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Healthy disagreement alone certainly isn't a bad thing, but I'm a little troubled that this was made public. 

Happens in every front office of every sport, but yes the fact it was leaked is somewhat troubling. 

[mvp 78]

Chat, who can hit LHP better: Enmanuel Valdez or 19th round 2024 draftee RHP Joe Vogatsky? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do not think Chapman, Hendriks & Wilson are better than Jansen & Martin.

Look at all those names when they became Red Sox and notice that none are/were in their primes in Boston (though Martin was near-perfect in '23).

Relievers and closers in particular fluctuate frequently. But there's nothing more secure for a team than having a lock-down back-end, game-over bullpen: Eck and Mo -- and their underrated set-up men -- set the standard.

Every Boston champ this century had a shutdown closer: Foulke, Papelbon, Koji, Kimbrel (well, until the last month of '18). But none of them ever last long; Diaz and the trumpets, Hader... Williams in NY?

Tanner Scott is 30 and has been good for... only two years. Is there any possible way a guy like John Henry thinks a guy like that is worthy of a large, longterm investment?

 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Tanner Scott is 30 and has been good for... only two years. Is there any possible way a guy like John Henry thinks a guy like that is worthy of a large, longterm investment?

I believe this is 100% the case. They don't want to go large and long on a reliever. 

[Duran Is The Man]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FWIW the speculation is that Cora and Kennedy are high on signing Bregman but Breslow is not.
 

"...Breslow is not."

translation: Henry does not want to spend the money it would take to sign him.