A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I saw Rikishi and his family walk into LA Food Show back when I lived out there. This was before his kids signed with WWE and arguably became more famous. 

Jey (one of his sons) is hottest thing going right now.

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Jey (one of his sons) is hottest thing going right now.

I'm familiar. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The thing about Buehler is he's not JUST coming off of injury, this will be his first full season back, but second overall and first full offseason.  

I've always been against these gambles in the context that the Sox make no big move, this year they made a big move.  Buehler really looked good at the end of the year, like he was back.  I'd happily pay him a 1/4 of what Burnes will get to possibly get the same level of production or close to it. 

We need a pitcher on the healthy side of the spectrum.

Our staff is already to have Whitlock, Giolito, Hendriks, Fulmer, Crochett, and Slaten missed some time, too.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We need a pitcher on the healthy side of the spectrum.

Our staff is already to have Whitlock, Giolito, Hendriks, Fulmer, Crochett, and Slaten missed some time, too.

Isn’t Buehler healthy? Sure he had surgery, but he’ll be two years removed in 2025.in todays game almost every pitcher has either had an injury or is due for one.  

if a guys medicals are good, and the stuff is back, I’d strongly consider them. 

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Isn’t Buehler healthy? Sure he had surgery, but he’ll be two years removed in 2025.in todays game almost every pitcher has either had an injury or is due for one.  

if a guys medicals are good, and the stuff is back, I’d strongly consider them. 

 

Is his stuff back? He wasn't very good in the regular season. His spin rates seem to be down from what they used to be. 

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Top pitchers left per projected fWAR:

Burnes - 30 seems very unlikely per reports, but should be priority

Flaherty - 29 could have signed him last offseason, but didn't

Pivetta - 32 pass for what it would take to sign him

Scherzer - 40 no

Kershaw - 37 no

Manaea - 33 are you kidding me

Gibson - 37 no

Lynn - 38 no

Morton - 41 no

Heaney - 34 yuck

Verlander - 42 no

Buehler - 30 coming off TJS and had 10 good innings in the playoffs, wow

Chat, what do we think? 

This list is why bres-slow is working the phones so hard with Seattle 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Isn’t Buehler healthy? Sure he had surgery, but he’ll be two years removed in 2025.in todays game almost every pitcher has either had an injury or is due for one.  

if a guys medicals are good, and the stuff is back, I’d strongly consider them. 

 

Kluber and Richards were "healthy," too.

I'd like to see more evidence that a guy is over an injury than 10 IP.

Look, I understand getting a guy who seems very durable can backfire... lik Gio did, but I'm just tired of these type of additions, usually made to save a buck anot have to commit long term. I see how this is different from hendriks, Fulmand Paxton, who were on the IL when signed, and we knew they miss months to start the deal, but it's a personal thing: I'm hoping we add a durable and dependable SP, and it workout better than Gio did.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com was really talking up Narvaez on their podcast.

They spoke of how Elmer Rodriguez was, at best, a RP'er who just "did not have the look" of a major leaguer." (Too skinny.)

They think Narvaez might be top 30 to 35 on the next rankings. (Remember, 5 top 30 are gone.)

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com has the projected 26 man roster with 4 open slots for "acquisitions:"

SP2 (Behind Crochet and ahead of Houck)

Closer (with Hendriks and Chapman as the 8th inning guys)

DH (with Yoshida starting the year on the IL)

Back Up Catcher (with Narvaez starting the year in AAA)

They have Campbell breaking camp as the starting 2Bman with DHam , Ref and Romy on the bench. Grissom, Mayer and Anthony are the notables placed in AAA.

I think we'll get by without adding a DH and may go with Narvaez as the #2 catcher, but I hope we get a solid #1 or #2 SP'er and quality RP'er.

Burnes and Estevez?

Flaherty and Hoffman?

Manaea and Scott?

Trade for Casillo or Pablo Lopez or Jh Duran or Helsley?

[Larry Cook]

Do we know when yoshida will be ready to play next season?? 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Do we know when yoshida will be ready to play next season?? 

I think he might miss part of April.

CBS says "ready for start of season"

ESPN says Feb 1st,

[moonslav59]

With the Astros trading Tucker, they could really us a LH'd OF'er, and we have Abreu.

The GM spoke, today and said they are not looking to trade Framber Valdez, but will listen. He's due about $18M, this year. I do not think we'll offer a trade for 1 year of Valdez, and working on a Crochet extension would likely rule out a Valdez extension, too.

I don't see HOU looking to take Yoshida as part of a trade, but they do have some contracts, they'd like to unload. I'm not sure any fit Boston's needs, but some are pitchers:

Ryan Pressly: $14M/1 (He is 34 and looks over-the-hill. I guess we could hope for a bounce back season at a position we need more than DH)

Cristian Javier: $53M/3 owed (but just $12.8 on tax line) He turns 28, soon and used to be pretty good. He has a career 115 ERA+, but was out most of last year.

Josh Hader $76M/4 ($19M x 4 and 19M on tax line.) He'd be a very nice closer, but is expensive. So is Yoshida, but why would HOU take Yoshida, unless we added pieces- more than Abreu for this guy. They also have Yordan Alvarez, who is best suited to DH. (Yoshida does not seem like a fit.)

Lance McCullers $34M/2 would be a total salary dump ($17M AAV)

Victor Caratini $6M/1 would be a nice back-up catcher, and the Astros have Yainer Diaz with 4 years of team control.

Players the Sox would like, but are not on the block: Hunter Brown (4 yrs) Ronel Blanco (5 yrs) Arrighetti (5 yrs)

Would HOU take Abreu & Yoshida for Javier? (Javier + Pressly or Caratini?)

How about Abreu, Yoshida and Rafaela for Javier, Pressly & Caratini?

Okay, no Yoshida:

Abreu, Casas and Kelly or Fitts for Javier, Caratini & Hader plus cash? (How much cash?)

These 3 contracts= $35.4M in '25 (all 3) $41M in '26 & '27 (Hader & Javier) and $19M in '28 (just Hader) The AAV would be $37.8 '25, $31.8 in '26 & '27 and $19 in '28. That's a lot of money, if Javier does not work out. We'd need HOU to pay something like $10M in '25 and $5M from "26-'28. That's $25M total.

I don't know, if there is a fit, but I do think HOU would love Abreu and or Casas.

 

 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Kluber and Richards were "healthy," too.

I'd like to see more evidence that a guy is over an injury than 10 IP.

Look, I understand getting a guy who seems very durable can backfire... lik Gio did, but I'm just tired of these type of additions, usually made to save a buck anot have to commit long term. I see how this is different from hendriks, Fulmand Paxton, who were on the IL when signed, and we knew they miss months to start the deal, but it's a personal thing: I'm hoping we add a durable and dependable SP, and it workout better than Gio did.

Kluber was older so a fall off wasn’t entirely surprising. Richards was barely ever healthy or productive, pure upside play.

[notin]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the Astros trading Tucker, they could really us a LH'd OF'er, and we have Abreu.

The GM spoke, today and said they are not looking to trade Framber Valdez, but will listen. He's due about $18M, this year. I do not think we'll offer a trade for 1 year of Valdez, and working on a Crochet extension would likely rule out a Valdez extension, too.

I don't see HOU looking to take Yoshida as part of a trade, but they do have some contracts, they'd like to unload. I'm not sure any fit Boston's needs, but some are pitchers:

Ryan Pressly: $14M/1 (He is 34 and looks over-the-hill. I guess we could hope for a bounce back season at a position we need more than DH)

Cristian Javier: $53M/3 owed (but just $12.8 on tax line) He turns 28, soon and used to be pretty good. He has a career 115 ERA+, but was out most of last year.

Josh Hader $76M/4 ($19M x 4 and 19M on tax line.) He'd be a very nice closer, but is expensive. So is Yoshida, but why would HOU take Yoshida, unless we added pieces- more than Abreu for this guy. They also have Yordan Alvarez, who is best suited to DH. (Yoshida does not seem like a fit.)

Lance McCullers $34M/2 would be a total salary dump ($17M AAV)

Victor Caratini $6M/1 would be a nice back-up catcher, and the Astros have Yainer Diaz with 4 years of team control.

Players the Sox would like, but are not on the block: Hunter Brown (4 yrs) Ronel Blanco (5 yrs) Arrighetti (5 yrs)

Would HOU take Abreu & Yoshida for Javier? (Javier + Pressly or Caratini?)

How about Abreu, Yoshida and Rafaela for Javier, Pressly & Caratini?

Okay, no Yoshida:

Abreu, Casas and Kelly or Fitts for Javier, Caratini & Hader plus cash? (How much cash?)

These 3 contracts= $35.4M in '25 (all 3) $41M in '26 & '27 (Hader & Javier) and $19M in '28 (just Hader) The AAV would be $37.8 '25, $31.8 in '26 & '27 and $19 in '28. That's a lot of money, if Javier does not work out. We'd need HOU to pay something like $10M in '25 and $5M from "26-'28. That's $25M total.

I don't know, if there is a fit, but I do think HOU would love Abreu and or Casas.

 

 

Houston might be a bit embarrassed to deal away Abreu for 2 months of a backup catcher a couple years ago, and then empty the pitching staff to get him back, especially since they really don’t have much depth there…

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Houston might be a bit embarrassed to deal away Abreu for 2 months of a backup catcher a couple years ago, and then empty the pitching staff to get him back, especially since they really don’t have much depth there…

They did win the World Series that year and Vaz did his job.  But that's beside the point of whether any of these trade proposals make any actual sense for them...

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the Astros trading Tucker, they could really us a LH'd OF'er, and we have Abreu.

The GM spoke, today and said they are not looking to trade Framber Valdez, but will listen. He's due about $18M, this year. I do not think we'll offer a trade for 1 year of Valdez, and working on a Crochet extension would likely rule out a Valdez extension, too.

I don't see HOU looking to take Yoshida as part of a trade, but they do have some contracts, they'd like to unload. I'm not sure any fit Boston's needs, but some are pitchers:

Ryan Pressly: $14M/1 (He is 34 and looks over-the-hill. I guess we could hope for a bounce back season at a position we need more than DH)

Cristian Javier: $53M/3 owed (but just $12.8 on tax line) He turns 28, soon and used to be pretty good. He has a career 115 ERA+, but was out most of last year.

Josh Hader $76M/4 ($19M x 4 and 19M on tax line.) He'd be a very nice closer, but is expensive. So is Yoshida, but why would HOU take Yoshida, unless we added pieces- more than Abreu for this guy. They also have Yordan Alvarez, who is best suited to DH. (Yoshida does not seem like a fit.)

Lance McCullers $34M/2 would be a total salary dump ($17M AAV)

Victor Caratini $6M/1 would be a nice back-up catcher, and the Astros have Yainer Diaz with 4 years of team control.

Players the Sox would like, but are not on the block: Hunter Brown (4 yrs) Ronel Blanco (5 yrs) Arrighetti (5 yrs)

Would HOU take Abreu & Yoshida for Javier? (Javier + Pressly or Caratini?)

How about Abreu, Yoshida and Rafaela for Javier, Pressly & Caratini?

Okay, no Yoshida:

Abreu, Casas and Kelly or Fitts for Javier, Caratini & Hader plus cash? (How much cash?)

These 3 contracts= $35.4M in '25 (all 3) $41M in '26 & '27 (Hader & Javier) and $19M in '28 (just Hader) The AAV would be $37.8 '25, $31.8 in '26 & '27 and $19 in '28. That's a lot of money, if Javier does not work out. We'd need HOU to pay something like $10M in '25 and $5M from "26-'28. That's $25M total.

I don't know, if there is a fit, but I do think HOU would love Abreu and or Casas.

 

 

If the Red Sox are taking on Cristian Javier, who is out for most if not all of 2025, Houston can take back a bad contract or two…

[notin]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They did win the World Series that year and Vaz did his job.  But that's beside the point of whether any of these trade proposals make any actual sense for them...

True and it’s not exactly Bagwell/Andersen.

 

Actually, from a PR standpoint, it makes sense.  The message to the fans that the title meant more than the prospects works better if Vazquez starts.  But there’s always the humility angle.

 

But why Houston breaks up MLB SP for a RF is beyond me.   I mean, we need a catcher in Boston now, and it doesn’t have to be a short term solution.  Does that mean we can deal Houck to get one?

 

And of course, in Boston we have the “f*** Houston” angle where we let them suffer and fall in the standings rather than helping them out..

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

soxprospects.com was really talking up Narvaez on their podcast.

They spoke of how Elmer Rodriguez was, at best, a RP'er who just "did not have the look" of a major leaguer." (Too skinny.)

They think Narvaez might be top 30 to 35 on the next rankings. (Remember, 5 top 30 are gone.)

I don’t buy this guy is anything special.  If he was so good, why did the Yankees trade him for bean pole with a ceiling of up-and-down middle reliever?

Also, when did MLB have skinniness standards?  And didn’t they apply to Sale?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t buy this guy is anything special.  If he was so good, why did the Yankees trade him for bean pole with a ceiling of up-and-down middle reliever?

Also, when did MLB have skinniness standards?  And didn’t they apply to Sale?

For those who see parallel risk factors in the tall lefty, ex-White Sox deliveries of Sale and Crochet, I recently read that our new guy is 65 pounds heavier.

Does that make Garrett more sturdy that Chris -- or more muscle-bound, and thus more susceptible for some unbalanced ligament snapping? Or maybe it's just more Big Macs and Whoppers with cheese (and more distended, until he gets extended...).

[Larry Cook]

I wonder if bres-slow is still working on Seattle for a starting pitcher! You have to think of it was just Castillo, he could get a deal done by now!!

maybe bres-slow is after one of the young starters or dipito is looking for a bigger trade???

[notin]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For those who see parallel risk factors in the tall lefty, ex-White Sox deliveries of Sale and Crochet, I recently read that our new guy is 65 pounds heavier.

Does that make Garrett more sturdy that Chris -- or more muscle-bound, and thus more susceptible for some unbalanced ligament snapping? Or maybe it's just more Big Macs and Whoppers with cheese (and more distended, until he gets extended...).

Just makes him different.  Beyond height, and sometimes not even then, there’s very little in the way of physical requirements for pitchers…

[notin]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

I wonder if bres-slow is still working on Seattle for a starting pitcher! You have to think of it was just Castillo, he could get a deal done by now!!

maybe bres-slow is after one of the young starters or dipito is looking for a bigger trade???

If the Sox need another SP, just get one from free agency.

 

Right now, catcher might be the bigger overall need, and free agency has nothing but stopgaps and backups…

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Kluber was older so a fall off wasn’t entirely surprising. Richards was barely ever healthy or productive, pure upside play.

True on both counts, but...

Kluber had a 5 year stretch of over 200 IP and 5 top 10 CYAs, including 2 awards and had pitched 164 innings the year before with decent numbers (3.57 FIP.) Missing so much time from 2918-2022, the 5 years before signing with BOS meant his arm was not maxed out for his career. When he did pitch, he showed that he was aging rather well (111 ERA+ and 3.46 FIP in those previous 5 seasons with just under 500 IP.) That history and even recent history beats out Buehler's.

Buehler is much younger than either of thse two, but has had just one 200 IP season (4 years ago- almost as long ao as Kluber's was) and one with 182 IP and 137 IP. His previous 5 seasons (385 IP) had more than  100 IP less than Kluber's 5. His 122 ERA+ is better than Kluber's during those 5, but his FIP of 3.85 is worse.) His last 3 seasons are scary:  just 140 IP with a 4.74 FIP and 83 ERA+.

Richards was never the horse Kluber was, and like Buehler, only had 1 season with 200 IP. (His next highest were 169, 145 and 137, which compares to Buehler.) He was 33 when he came to BOS in 2021. He was also 5 years removed from that 200 IP season. You are right, he went 5 seasons with no IP total more than 77 in that stretch. His 137 IP was more than could be expected. His numbers were decent, when he did pitch and almost identical to Buehler's numbers: 119 ERA+ and 3.86 FIP but with just under 200 IP in those 5 seasons.)

While these three had some differences, most notably age, their previous 5 year sample sizes were pretty close. The previous 3 seasons were like this:

ERA+/FIP in IP

93/3.66 in 245 IP Kluber

103/4.29 in 137  IP Richards

83/4.7 4in 138 IP Buehler

Buehler was the worst of the three.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

I wonder if bres-slow is still working on Seattle for a starting pitcher! You have to think of it was just Castillo, he could get a deal done by now!!

maybe bres-slow is after one of the young starters or dipito is looking for a bigger trade???

Wondering if Castillo, who just turned 32 and is owed $72 million, isn't the pitcher they want to invest that much into and give up prospect capital...

Pivetta or Manaea might not make much more, and will only cost money, while Buehler could cost a lot less money.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If the Red Sox are taking on Cristian Javier, who is out for most if not all of 2025, Houston can take back a bad contract or two…

True. I thought he had surgery earlier than he did. He is expected back in July 2025, but we know how that always goes for the Sox.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I wonder if bres-slow is still working on Seattle for a starting pitcher! You have to think of it was just Castillo, he could get a deal done by now!!

maybe bres-slow is after one of the young starters or dipito is looking for a bigger trade???

Why would it be done by now?  Seattle isn’t looking just to dump Castillo.

The main reason it isn’t done is lots of teams are involved. Castillo is owed a lot of money, but it’s still pennies compared to what Burnes is going to get, and very likely less than what Pivetta and Manaea ultimately get as well.  So for purely financial reasons, Castilllo is more popular than he normally would be.

The Sox aren’t getting any of those Seattle pitcher.  Especially not the overrated Bryce Miller…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would it be done by now?  Seattle isn’t looking just to dump Castillo.

The main reason it isn’t done is lots of teams are involved. Castillo is owed a lot of money, but it’s still pennies compared to what Burnes is going to get, and very likely less than what Pivetta and Manaea ultimately get as well.  So for purely financial reasons, Castilllo is more popular than he normally would be.

The Sox aren’t getting any of those Seattle pitcher.  Especially not the overrated Bryce Miller…

I think Pablo Lopez might be the most likely trade asset, but I agree with others: we had money to give Soto, so keep our remaining top prospects and sign a couple arms- one from each group:

Burnes, Flaherty (Manaea, Pivetta)

Scott, Hoffman, Estevez (Yates)

Not 2 in parenthesis.

To me, this, along with adding a catcher, is the minimum we need to do.

A big RHB would be nice, but I put that behind SP, RP and C. Getting Bregman to play 3B ONLY, would be a way to improve the pitching without signing one. He'd improve all our pitchers' outcomes by greatly improving our corner IF defense.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Pablo Lopez might be the most likely trade asset, but I agree with others: we had money to give Soto, so keep our remaining top prospects and sign a couple arms- one from each group:

Burnes, Flaherty (Manaea, Pivetta)

Scott, Hoffman, Estevez (Yates)

Not 2 in parenthesis.

To me, this, along with adding a catcher, is the minimum we need to do.

A big RHB would be nice, but I put that behind SP, RP and C. Getting Bregman to play 3B ONLY, would be a way to improve the pitching without signing one. He'd improve all our pitchers' outcomes by greatly improving our corner IF defense.

I had heard Lopez is not available, but at a minimum, they probably won’t make any drastic moves until the recently announced sale of that club is complete.  Who knows what direction the new owners want?

[notin]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Pablo Lopez might be the most likely trade asset, but I agree with others: we had money to give Soto, so keep our remaining top prospects and sign a couple arms- one from each group:

Burnes, Flaherty (Manaea, Pivetta)

Scott, Hoffman, Estevez (Yates)

Not 2 in parenthesis.

To me, this, along with adding a catcher, is the minimum we need to do.

A big RHB would be nice, but I put that behind SP, RP and C. Getting Bregman to play 3B ONLY, would be a way to improve the pitching without signing one. He'd improve all our pitchers' outcomes by greatly improving our corner IF defense.

Flaherty, a reliever (Finnegan, Kittridge, Bielak, etc) and, if rumors of wanting 3 yes / $70millare true, Teoscar Hernandez.

 

And trade for a decent pitch-framing catcher, since they clearly forgot to re-sign Danny Jansen…

[Randy Red Sox]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Flaherty, a reliever (Finnegan, Kittridge, Bielak, etc) and, if rumors of wanting 3 yes / $70millare true, Teoscar Hernandez.

 

And trade for a decent pitch-framing catcher, since they clearly forgot to re-sign Danny Jansen…

we got our backup C from the NYY trade