A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Whatever it takes, he would do it. 

Before Soto the largest contract Cohen gave out was $341 million to Lindor.  I know $765 million is a lot of money but everyone has a limit.  No way he would have spent $1.6 billion dollars on a player. 

That's literally more than double what he got now

[Hugh2]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The winter is not over, but it sure looks bleak. I'm really not thrilled with anyone, leftover, even if we get one or two at last minute bargain rates.

The pen was the worst in the majors over the second half, and despite most pen arms being volatile, our pen looks worse, on paper. The Chapman, Hendriks, Wilson and Whitlock additions don't outweigh the loss of our best two RP'ers since Kimbrel in 2017-2018.

I think our offense can make up for O'Neill's loss, and if Story can remain healthy and with EValdez's departure, our middle IF defense should be much improved. The fixation with keeping Devers at 3B is troublesome. Casas is no better at 1B. Maybe Narvaez can fix the awful catcher D, but we still have those three positions ranked bottom 5.

If the Sox sign one of (Burnes/Buehler/Flaherty) or trade for a Seattle pitcher. 

and then sign one of

Teoscar Hernandez/Alex Bregman. 

Would the offseason still look bleak?

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Before Soto the largest contract Cohen gave out was $341 million to Lindor.  I know $765 million is a lot of money but everyone has a limit.  No way he would have spent $1.6 billion dollars on a player. 

That's literally more than double what he got now

Granted, but the $1.6 billion hypothetical number is based on moon's hypothetical $1.5 billion bid by the Red Sox LOL

The bottom line is Cohen said he wouldn't be outbid by anyone for Soto, including the Yanks, and he wasn't fooling.

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If the Sox sign one of (Burnes/Buehler/Flaherty) or trade for a Seattle pitcher. 

and then sign one of

Teoscar Hernandez/Alex Bregman. 

Would the offseason still look bleak?

It would certainly look considerably better.  It would confirm that they mean business.

We'd still be howling for a bullpen upgrade, mind you. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If the Sox sign one of (Burnes/Buehler/Flaherty) or trade for a Seattle pitcher. 

and then sign one of

Teoscar Hernandez/Alex Bregman. 

Would the offseason still look bleak?

No, but you know, there are a lot of teams that think they are a player or two away from making the playoffs or going far in the playoffs. There might be less than a handful of teams that are in full rebuild mode. Even the A's are spending (due to the gun upside their noggin.) The Dodgers seem far away on Teoscar, but you never know with them. The Yanks have done a lot, already. If we add Buehler and Teoscar, we still lost ground to them. (I'd subtract Buehler from your list and maybe add Manaea, Scott and Hoffman.) The Mets might be in on one of these guys- maybe Flaherty. TOR seems to be willing to spend. Burnes to SFG was rumored, long ago.

I think the best we can hope for, which is more than I expect is Flaherty and Santander. I think that would nudge us into the "got better" category, but that is based more on my hopes for Anthony, Campbell and maybe Mayer giving the team a boost than thinking Crochet, Flaherty, Chapman & Santander is a significant upgrade over Pivetta, O'Neill, J Jansen, Martin and D Jansen. The rotation would be better, but the pen worse. Maybe Santander equals O'Neill's 2024 numbers.

It would be an okay winter, but I was hoping (dreaming) for more, especially after the Soto hype and reported $700M opened up.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would certainly look considerably better.  It would confirm that they mean business.

We'd still be howling for a bullpen upgrade, mind you. 

It probably has to be Burnes & Teoscar or Flaherty & Bregman, to me.

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It probably has to be Burnes & Teoscar or Flaherty & Bregman, to me.

Either of those would signal very serious.

Strange how doubtful we still are about that.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Only 13 more days until next year.

This offseason, with Sam Kennedy and his front office displaying "extreme urgency to compete for the American League East championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question"... the Red Sox:

1. lost a starting pitcher and replaced him with a better one;

2. lost both a closer and set-up man in their late-30s, and replaced them with two others in their late-30s;

3. lost the back-up catcher and replaced him with a minor leaguer;

4. lost the team home run leader and right-handed swinging middle order bat... and did not replace him with anyone.

In a Sirius interview yesterday, Breslow repeated how "excited" they are to have Rafael Devers as the third baseman -- because they hired some new coaches.

Management understands that fans demand World Series rings every season, but please... stop asking so many urgent questions!

 

5. destroyed the farm. if Dave can get blamed for "decimating the farm" with a few trades that turned out great for the Sox, why not Brez-slow?

[moonslav59]

When the list gets narrowed to 4-5 players available, and we need to hope JH essentially overpays on 2 of them, the winter looks bleak. Sure, one signing and another trade might get us just to the point of mild satisfaction, but at what cost to the extended future?

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Either of those would signal very serious.

Strange how doubtful we still are about that.

I'm not sure I'd use the word "strange." It's expected, now.

Even when JH was spending with big boys, it was usually one big signing.

I think the biggest duo signing was HRam & Pablito.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure I'd use the word "strange." It's expected, now.

Even when JH was spending with big boys, it was usually one big signing.

I think the biggest duo signing was HRam & Pablito.

It was kind of a troika with those two and the great Rusney Castillo.  That was a quick quarter billion down the tubes.   

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

5. destroyed the farm. if Dave can get blamed for "decimating the farm" with a few trades that turned out great for the Sox, why not Brez-slow?

We could probably manage one more significant prospect trade and still have a good farm, but we'd need some luck.

If we trade Mayer, we'd need Story to remain healthy until Arias/Romero are ready.

Trading Anthony or Campbell would need to bring back a top pitcher with 4+ years of control to keep any idea of a long window open. I don't see that happening.

I don't think we'd get much for Perales, Arias or Romero, Bleis or Jh Garcia or Cespedes. We'd probably have to give up 2-3 of them plus more to get something substantial. Including Abreu or Rafaela and or maybe DHam or Grissom might help, but that should only be done, if we add a Teoscar, Santander or Bregman.

Maybe we could just hand the season to the kids and trade some current starters:

Mayer at SS, 3B or 3B. Campbell and 2B or 3B. Anthony in RF/CF and have Narvaez catch as much as Wong (see Murphy suggestion.)

Trade Story and $24M for Murphy. Trade Wong, Abreu and DHam for a pitcher, and just sign Teoscar to 3 years, something JH can stomach.

C: Murphy & Narvaez

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Campbell, Grissom (Rafaela)

SS: Mayer, Romy (Rafaela)

3B: Devers (Romy)

LF: Duran-Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela-Duran

RF: Anthony (Campbell)

DH: Yoshida (Refsnyder)

SP: Crochet, Houck, __SP in trade__, Bello, Giolito

RP: Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Criswell, Wilson

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It was kind of a troika with those two and the great Rusney Castillo.  That was a quick quarter billion down the tubes.   

Got that right. Scherzer would have been cheaper than those three and kept us from signing Price to 7 years and $210M.

[Bellhorn04]

"Just watch the kids play!" - that sounds like music to JH's ears.  

[notin]

On 12/16/2024 at 6:52 PM, moonslav59 said:

The thing is, JH could have paid Soto $1.5 Billion. You think "deep pockets" Cohen bid $1.6B?

All these guys are rich enough to bid into insanity. It's more about who wants it than who has an extra few $ Billion in the bank.

 

If JH “could” do that, why wouldn’t Cohen be able to do it as well?

Why do people think Henry (2024 est net worth $6 billion) is in the same financial ballpark as Cohen (2024 est net worth $21.3 billion)?

Even FSG ($13billion) Durant compete with Cohen.  But at least they have the same number of digits in their net worth…

[Hugh2]

42 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would certainly look considerably better.  It would confirm that they mean business.

We'd still be howling for a bullpen upgrade, mind you. 

Yeah well.....Rome wasn't built in a day. 

[Hugh2]

26 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

5. destroyed the farm. if Dave can get blamed for "decimating the farm" with a few trades that turned out great for the Sox, why not Brez-slow?

Destroyed the farm? The Sox have 3 prospects in the top 50 and he kept all three and acquired a TOTRS.

I suspect the farm to take a steep step back in next years rankings....but it will be because 2 to 3 of Mayer/Anthony/Campbell have graduated. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah well.....Rome wasn't built in a day. 

True.  But John Henry is starting to resemble Emperor Nero.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

If the Sox sign one of (Burnes/Buehler/Flaherty) or trade for a Seattle pitcher. 

and then sign one of

Teoscar Hernandez/Alex Bregman. 

Would the offseason still look bleak?

Thats what Ive been saying!

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats what Ive been saying!

Problem is we were saying stuff just like this the last few years around this time, and not much materialized.

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder if their offer to Burnes is fully prepared yet? 😛

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even if they sign Buehler and a bat, we're all overlooking the same problem that comes every single summer of this decade: when the rotation breaks down like it always does, the bullpen gets burned out, and by August the whole pitching staff is in tatters. And they never have enough to hang in there for a stretch run.

Sure, a tighter defense keeps the pitch counts down, and a blaster offense can help compensate. But we know, the players know, and the frigging front office knows they need more established arms, and way more durable depth in the bullpen.

And as we see every summer, waiting until the end of July is too late for this org to add any pitcher of significance. 

[Bellhorn04]

It's very possible if not probable that they're done with the rotation.  I kind of keep forgetting about Giolito.

Crochet

Houck

Bello

Crawford

Giolito

Depth: Criswell/Fitts/Priester/Whitlock/whoever

If that's the case, they really ought to sign a good reliever or two.

[drewski6]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Problem is we were saying stuff just like this the last few years and not much materialized.

 

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I wonder if their offer to Burnes is fully prepared yet? 😛

 

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Even if they sign Buehler and a bat, we're all overlooking the same problem that comes every single summer of this decade: when the rotation breaks down like it always does, the bullpen gets burned out, and by August the whole pitching staff is in tatters. And they never have enough to hang in there for a stretch run.

Sure, a tighter defense keeps the pitch counts down, and a blaster offense can help compensate. But we know, the players know, and the frigging front office knows they need more established arms, and way more durable depth in the bullpen.

And as we see every summer, waiting until the end of July is too late for this org to add any pitcher of significance. 

This happens to a lot of teams, and usually your pitching his a lull in August.  Gotta rely on the bats to win enough to keep you in contention while you rest up and heal up your line 1 pitchers , using your depth in the interim

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's very possible if not probable that they're done with the rotation.  I kind of keep forgetting about Giolito.

Crochet

Houck

Bello

Crawford

Giolito

Depth: Criswell/Fitts/Priester/Whitlock/whoever

If that's the case, they really ought to sign a good reliever or two.

Its possible, but not probable. I think its over 50% theres another SP addition (and I dont mean John Means). Watch it be John Means

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If that's the case, they really ought to sign a good reliever or two.

It's unconscionable if they don't.

Real contenders constantly recruit established relievers every winter. Some are recycled, and all are susceptible to injury and thus, on-and-off again good/bad seasons. But the value of bullpen talent (not minor league arms cut from other rosters) is never ignored... by the good teams.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Its possible, but not probable. I think its over 50% theres another SP addition (and I dont mean John Means). Watch it be John Means

It's very, very hard to say with this ownership now.  Even though they appeared to be serious about Soto, it's no guarantee at all that they're boosting the payroll.  Maybe they were thinking Soto or nothing.  

They have become enigmatic.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's unconscionable if they don't.

Real contenders constantly recruit established relievers every winter. Some are recycled, and all are susceptible to injury and thus, on-and-off again good/bad seasons. But the value of bullpen talent (not minor league arms cut from other rosters) is never ignored... by the good teams.

Sadly, we have seen the unconscionable for 3 straight seasons, and I'm not comfortable it won't be 4.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sadly, we have seen the unconscionable for 3 straight seasons, and I'm not comfortable it won't be 4.

Well, we know this CBO isn't unconscious -- he's so excited for Raffy to be playing third base.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, notin said:

If JH “could” do that, why wouldn’t Cohen be able to do it as well?

Why do people think Henry (2024 est net worth $6 billion) is in the same financial ballpark as Cohen (2024 est net worth $21.3 billion)?

Even FSG ($13billion) Durant compete with Cohen.  But at least they have the same number of digits in their net worth…

I really don't think the $21.3B v $6B is the deciding factor. The bidding would never get near $6B, so it's really about the owner's willingness to go to absurd levels to "get his guy." How will we ever know just how absurd Cohen would have gotten?

Anyway, it doesn't really matter. The point that matters to me is whether JH was really prepared to pay $700M, or if he'd have gone to $725M, if he felt that had a chance of winning the bidding. If he was, then I'm encouraged, a little, that his spending might go up, soon, If it was all for show, then the sham has kicked into overdrive.