A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Top pitchers left per projected fWAR:

Burnes - 30 seems very unlikely per reports, but should be priority

Flaherty - 29 could have signed him last offseason, but didn't

Pivetta - 32 pass for what it would take to sign him

Scherzer - 40 no

Kershaw - 37 no

Manaea - 33 are you kidding me

Gibson - 37 no

Lynn - 38 no

Morton - 41 no

Heaney - 34 yuck

Verlander - 42 no

Buehler - 30 coming off TJS and had 10 good innings in the playoffs, wow

Chat, what do we think? 

Realistically, the most likely good pitcher we sign might be Flaherty. I think he's better than Bello, Gio and Crawford, and pushing one to the pen would help there, too, but the upgrade is not worth the cost.

I'd rather we signScott or Hoffman, or Tesocar and trade for pitching upgrades.

I'd say Bregman and trade for pitching, but apparently we won't move devers off 3B in 2025. Ho hum.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Realistically, the most likely good pitcher we sign might be Flaherty. I think he's better than Bello, Gio and Crawford, and pushing one to the pen would help there, too, but the upgrade is not worth the cost.

I'd rather we signScott or Hoffman, or Tesocar and trade for pitching upgrades.

I'd say Bregman and trade for pitching, but apparently we won't move devers off 3B in 2025. Ho hum.

Realistically, I have no clue what their plan is. Buehler, acquire a catcher and more relievers and I'm fine with it. I'm ok if they don't fix the handedness of the hitters. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Realistically, I have no clue what their plan is. Buehler, acquire a catcher and more relievers and I'm fine with it. I'm ok if they don't fix the handedness of the hitters. 

OK, I've made a final decision on something.  I'm going with laterality.  

[drewski6]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The big three remaining, IMO, are Burnes, Bregman and Teoscar.

What are the odds we get one?

I won't ask about two.

If we get one, what's the odds we add one from:

Manaea, Flaherty, Pivetta, Scott, Hoffman, Santander?

Maybe, the best we can hope for Burnes and Santander or Flaherty and Bregman.

 

If I may re-arrange a bit:

Odds of getting one of Teoscar, Santander, Bregman - 60%

Odds of getting Burnes - 15%

Odds of getting one of: Manaea, Flaherty, Pivetta, Hoffman, Castillo, Keller, Buehler or any other #3 starter via trade - 50%

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer, Casas, Abreu & Sandlin for JJ?

I don't do that. Skenes, yes.

Not getting skenes at any cost

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And Skenes would empty the cupboard.

Let's back to some free agent pitcher talk here! 

And he'd be worth it, but Pirates say no to any package. Hes not a realistic target. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, I've made a final decision on something.  I'm going with laterality.  

That just reminds me of TOOL. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

And he'd be worth it, but Pirates say no to any package. Hes not a realistic target. 

That's what we do best here. 

[drewski6]

For the price, Hoffman stands out.

[drewski6]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Top pitchers left per projected fWAR:

Burnes - 30 seems very unlikely per reports, but should be priority

Flaherty - 29 could have signed him last offseason, but didn't

Pivetta - 32 pass for what it would take to sign him

Scherzer - 40 no

Kershaw - 37 no

Manaea - 33 are you kidding me

Gibson - 37 no

Lynn - 38 no

Morton - 41 no

Heaney - 34 yuck

Verlander - 42 no

Buehler - 30 coming off TJS and had 10 good innings in the playoffs, wow

Chat, what do we think? 

Whats your beef with Manaea? Samoan genes are strong.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Whats your beef with Manaea? Samoan genes are strong.

Is he wrestling in the Garden or pitching? 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he wrestling in the Garden or pitching? 

Both?

[drewski6]

Sign Manaea, sell the team to Dwayne Johnson, and we're all getting tribal tat sleeves

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sign Manaea, sell the team to Dwayne Johnson, and we're all getting tribal tat sleeves

I saw Rikishi and his family walk into LA Food Show back when I lived out there. This was before his kids signed with WWE and arguably became more famous. 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Realistically, I have no clue what their plan is. Buehler, acquire a catcher and more relievers and I'm fine with it. I'm ok if they don't fix the handedness of the hitters. 

The "realistic" part was directed towards the money. Flaherty would be way cheaper than Burnes.

[moonslav59]

Broken record- I know....

Corner Infield Defense 2023-2024 (250+ attempts):

3B:
Devers: T40th out of 41 in OAA (-8)/ DRS 32nd out of 32 at -18 (next worst is -13!)

1B:

Casas 34th out of 36 in OAA (-10)/ DRS 24th out of 33 at -15

One way to really help our current and future pitching staff is to greatly improve our defense.

2023-2024: 26th in OAA and DRS

I think we'll be better at middle IF defense with no Valdez as our leading 2Bman in innings. DHam was a plus on D at 2B. Campbell should be a plus. Story needs to stay healthy. An OF of Duran, Rafaela (FT) and Abreu is excellent. Adding Anthony will not hurt.

Our main issues are Catcher, 3B and 1B. We can fix all three by playing Narvaez more and moving Devers to 1B/DH and Casas to DH/1B and adding a decent 3Bman (Bregman or Arenado or go with Campbell of Grissom/Story/Mayer at 3B.)

Just do it. So what, if Devers doesn't like it.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think Buehler would be worth a shot, "but only of course if it's not an exorbitant price tag", adds Cap'n Obvious.

Upside is upside, man.  And he has some.  

A lot of people said Dombrowski gave that $68 million extension to Eovaldi based on one nice playoff run.  But I think time has validated that Eovaldi is a near-elite talent and great character guy with obvious injury concerns, who is going to end up with a pretty nice major league resume.

. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, I've made a final decision on something.  I'm going with laterality.  

Why?  You’re dropping the right word

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handedness

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I think Buehler would be worth a shot, "but only of course if it's not an exorbitant price tag", adds Cap'n Obvious.

Upside is upside, man.  And he has some.  

A lot of people said Dombrowski gave that $68 million extension to Eovaldi based on one nice playoff run.  But I think time has validated that Eovaldi is a near-elite talent and great character guy with obvious injury concerns, who is going to end up with a pretty nice major league resume.

. 

As I've said, Red Sox fans can be idiots.

Eovaldi 2018 Regular Season with Red Sox:

12 G, 54 IP, 3.33 ERA, 2.88 FIP

Postseason

6 G, 22 IP, 1.61 ERA, 2.71 FIP

He was very good the second he put the jersey on. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Why?  You’re dropping the right word

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handedness

He doesn't like it though. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Top pitchers left per projected fWAR:

Burnes - 30 seems very unlikely per reports, but should be priority

Flaherty - 29 could have signed him last offseason, but didn't

Pivetta - 32 pass for what it would take to sign him

Scherzer - 40 no

Kershaw - 37 no

Manaea - 33 are you kidding me

Gibson - 37 no

Lynn - 38 no

Morton - 41 no

Heaney - 34 yuck

Verlander - 42 no

Buehler - 30 coming off TJS and had 10 good innings in the playoffs, wow

Chat, what do we think? 

Reportedly the following pitchers are available via trade

Dylan Cease (surplus value $33.6mill)

Zac Gallen ($24.6mill)

Framber Valdez ($24.4mill)

Mitch Keller ($19.4mill)

Keller is controlled for 4 years. The rest have one year left until free agency.

 

Also, why so down on Manaea?  You were down on him last year, too, and then he went and posted 3.2 bWAR…

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He doesn't like it though. 

His substitute is similar, but a little more neurological.

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/medical/laterality

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Reportedly the following pitchers are available via trade

Dylan Cease (surplus value $33.6mill)

Zac Gallen ($24.6mill)

Framber Valdez ($24.4mill)

Mitch Keller ($19.4mill)

Keller is controlled for 4 years. The rest have one year left until free agency.

 

Also, why so down on Manaea?  You were down on him last year, too, and then he went and posted 3.2 bWAR…

I'm allowed to just not like a player. 

Years above 2 bWAR
2016

2018

2021

2024

More often than not, he's been a mediocre to bad pitcher even when pitching in a great pitcher's park like OAK. 

[mvp 78]

For starter fWAR since 2016, he's behind: Paxton, Taillon, Syndergaard, Marquez, Gibson, Carrasco, Rodon, Corbin, Bauer, Lynn, Hendricks, Quintana and others I wouldn't want to spend a lot of money on either. 

[Hugh2]

Burnes > Flaherty > Buehler

Burnes is the best pitcher left, and maybe overall this offseason but will cost the most. 

Flaherty makes too much sense at this point for the Red Sox to have interest. 

Buehler is a risk, but he looked better down the stretch and as the playoffs went on.  He could end up being the absolute best value in this offseason class. 

Seeing how they already went Crochet, I'd be ok if they went Buehler, and for the same reasons wouldnt hate Flaherty.  Burnes is the dream, but this board will hate the cost.  But Burnes/Crochet/Houck/Bello/Giolito rotation might end up being the absolute best in baseball. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I think Buehler would be worth a shot, "but only of course if it's not an exorbitant price tag", adds Cap'n Obvious.

Upside is upside, man.  And he has some.  

A lot of people said Dombrowski gave that $68 million extension to Eovaldi based on one nice playoff run.  But I think time has validated that Eovaldi is a near-elite talent and great character guy with obvious injury concerns, who is going to end up with a pretty nice major league resume.

. 

Nate did have some spotty success before the 2018 October. He had some so-so and bad years, too, but he was generally between 3.40 and 4.50 from 2012 to 2018.

4.10 w MIA in 369 IP and 4.45 w NYY in 279 IP.

His FIP has always looked better: 3.57 w MIA and 4.11 w NYY.

Personally, I'm exhausted from all the "projects" and "show me" seasons by good pitchers coming off a recent injury. As a 6th starter, okay, but you don't pay $16M for a 6 guy.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For starter fWAR since 2016, he's behind: Paxton, Taillon, Syndergaard, Marquez, Gibson, Carrasco, Rodon, Corbin, Bauer, Lynn, Hendricks, Quintana and others I wouldn't want to spend a lot of money on either. 

Wow! This is very telling.

[moonslav59]

Flaherty might not have a long record of success, but he just turned 29, so a 5 year deal goes just to year 33.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nate did have some spotty success before the 2018 October. He had some so-so and bad years, too, but he was generally between 3.40 and 4.50 from 2012 to 2018.

4.10 w MIA in 369 IP and 4.45 w NYY in 279 IP.

His FIP has always looked better: 3.57 w MIA and 4.11 w NYY.

Personally, I'm exhausted from all the "projects" and "show me" seasons by good pitchers coming off a recent injury. As a 6th starter, okay, but you don't pay $16M for a 6 guy.

The thing about Buehler is he's not JUST coming off of injury, this will be his first full season back, but second overall and first full offseason.  

I've always been against these gambles in the context that the Sox make no big move, this year they made a big move.  Buehler really looked good at the end of the year, like he was back.  I'd happily pay him a 1/4 of what Burnes will get to possibly get the same level of production or close to it. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Why?  You’re dropping the right word

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handedness

I just think it's a dumb-looking word.  And it has Reese McGuire connotations.

Whereas laterality is actually kind of musical...