A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i said "nearly" the same money. especially when you consider that in reality, they are paying Sandoval $18.5 for one year (next season) as he'll be just like Paxton and not do anything the first year but draw a check.

Oh, you mean AAV, not total dollars, and even then it's $18M vs maybe $29M.

I hate this deal. I'm not defending it.

[moonslav59]

9 teams went over the tax line- nearly 1/3 of the league...

 

• Dodgers: $103MM
• Mets: $97.1MM
• Yankees: $62.5MM
• Phillies: $14.4MM
• Braves: $14MM
• Rangers: $10.8MM
• Astros: $6.5MM
• Giants: $2.4MM
• Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

[moonslav59]

So, I wonder who we DFA to make room for Sandoval, who will be placed on the 60 Day IL, day one of the season.

MLBTR says we are still $50M under the tax line, which should not even be a firm budget limit, anyway. That's still enough for Burnes and Teoscar or Bregman and Flaherty.  Maybe enough for Teoscar, Buehler & Hoffman.

[Duran Is The Man]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Oh, you mean AAV, not total dollars, and even then it's $18M vs maybe $29M.

I hate this deal. I'm not defending it.

me and you both. if Henry spent like the Dodgers or Mets i probably wouldn't care, but he's so tight, it's truly a waste of money we should be spending elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

me and you both. if Henry spent like the Dodgers or Mets i probably wouldn't care, but he's so tight, it's truly a waste of money we should be spending elsewhere.

If he just spent up to but below the tax line, we could have a clear playoff contending team in 2025 and an even better looking extended outlook.

[Duran Is The Man]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If he just spent up to but below the tax line, we could have a clear playoff contending team in 2025 and an even better looking extended outlook.

totally agree. and i think this would energize the fan base, i know it would me. this year after year of "The Sham" is wearing on everyone. i'm not a Mets, Yankees or Dodgers fan, but i would think that their fans have to be excited for what their teams have done.

[Larry Cook]

On 12/19/2024 at 7:11 PM, moonslav59 said:

Castillo is better than Crawford, Gio and Bello, but we could get some money thrown in.

And why are we interested in Castillo???  He does not fit our profile at all 

[moonslav59]

I know there is a lot of winter left.

There are plenty of quality players still on the market, with some big spending teams laying off a few of them.

We have three top prospects ready or near ready to make their mark in MLB.

We have a bunch of players coming back, next year after being hurt for much or all of 2024. 

We added an exciting young pitcher with nasty stuff and a good LH's RP'er.

There is a lot to be optimistic about... BUT...

We still have clear and long-standing weaknesses.

1. We need better pitching. Period. A really good SP'er AND RP'er may not be enough.

2. Our Corner IF defense had been god-awful for several years, and we've done nothing about it, but claim their bats more than make up for it. (Newsflash: their bats can still be in the line-up, just not at 3B.)

3. We need a real catcher. Defense is most important, but an all around one would be better.

4. A power RHB.

We don't need to fix all 4 of these, and maybe Narvaez can be the next Sandy Leon, but we can and MUST fix at least 2 of these 4 areas before opening day.

There is no excuse.

Bregman would fix the corner IF D and take a big bite out of our needs vs LHPs. (Teoscar or Santander only fix the RHB need, but if we trade Abreu and or Rafaela to make OF space for them, than maybe that fixes two needs.)

Signing Burnes, Flaherty or Scott  would fix one of our biggest needs. Two would be heavenly. (Signing Manaea and Hoffman would do the same.)

I suppose we could skimp and do okay with Pivetta, Hoffman and an Arenado trade, but I'd still be disappointed in the total winter plan.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

totally agree. and i think this would energize the fan base, i know it would me. this year after year of "The Sham" is wearing on everyone. i'm not a Mets, Yankees or Dodgers fan, but i would think that their fans have to be excited for what their teams have done.

From the "full throttle" to this year's comments about the CBT not being an issue, this winter and the near total lack of any meaningful financial expenditures, so far, is keeping me in sham frame of mind, until I see concrete actions, and the emphasis is on that "S" on the end of the word action.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

And why are we interested in Castillo???  He does not fit our profile at all 

I still think he's better than a good #3. I'm not for upgrading a #4 or #5, but I see him as better than that, and I see real value added with Crawford eating 90-120 innings from the pen and spot starts.

I think we can do better.

Maybe my suggested offers were overpays, and yes, I'd prefer Miller or Woo, of just sign a damn FA quality SP'er, already, but if we signed Bregman and traded for Castillo, we'd be much better off.

[moonslav59]

Stealing one of notin's ideas, let's get some kids in the game, while adding some quality talent in key areas?

Trade Story and whatever cash it would take to get RHB Sean Murphy to catch.

Sign Bregman and Hoffman.

Trade Abreu, Grissom and Fitts for Mitch Keller.

1. Duran LF v R/CF v L

2. Bregman 3B

3. Casas DH/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH

5. Murphy C

6.  Anthony RF 

7.  Campbell 2B

8. Mayer SS

9. Rafaela CF v R/ Refsnyder LF v L

Bench: Wong, Rafaela/Ref, DHam, Romy (Yoshida)

SP: Crochet, Houck, Keller, Bello, Giolito

RP: Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson

Rotation: Better

Pen: Better

Defense: way Better

RHB-LHB balance: way Better

Bench: Better

AAA depth: Better

 

[Larry Cook]

Is bres-slow secretly playing Seattle and Pittsburgh against each other to try and pry the best young starting pitcher he can away from them???

I think a lot of people here are too quick to discount the young trade talent that we have to offer in trades. 

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is bres-slow secretly playing Seattle and Pittsburgh against each other to try and pry the best young starting pitcher he can away from them???

I think a lot of people here are too quick to discount the young trade talent that we have to offer in trades. 

I'm not sure it is "discounting" but rather the realization that almost every team does not look to trade away young pitchers with talent, or even just promising young pitchers, and if they are pressed to do so, they ask for the world in return.

I'd love to get some of the young pitchers you have mentioned, but it's hard to determine what sort of return package should or has to be. Would you trade Anthony for any of these guys? (They might demand him and maybe others, too.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure it is "discounting" but rather the realization that almost every team does not look to trade away young pitchers with talent, or even just promising young pitchers, and if they are pressed to do so, they ask for the world in return.

Hi, this is Craig -- did someone say DISCOUNT? Sign me up!

(... just don't spend any money signing me).

And I'd like an opt-out, in case we win. So I can go to another forum where posters are warmer.

[Randy Red Sox]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

And why are we interested in Castillo???  He does not fit our profile at all 

exactly

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

exactly

It would depend on what we give up and how the money net works out.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It would depend on what we give up and how the money net works out.

we don't have any more top prospects we can give up for Castillo and despite your views Abreu will not get it done.

[Randy Red Sox]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I still think he's better than a good #3. I'm not for upgrading a #4 or #5, but I see him as better than that, and I see real value added with Crawford eating 90-120 innings from the pen and spot starts.

I think we can do better.

Maybe my suggested offers were overpays, and yes, I'd prefer Miller or Woo, of just sign a damn FA quality SP'er, already, but if we signed Bregman and traded for Castillo, we'd be much better off.

we will most likely do neither

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we will most likely do neither

I'm expecting neither.

If I had to guess, I'd say we might sign Estevez (RP) and trade for a decent catcher, and call it a day. Maybe, tops, we sign Flaherty (no comp pick lost) and add a catcher, somehow.

[Duran Is The Man]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm expecting neither.

If I had to guess, I'd say we might sign Estevez (RP) and trade for a decent catcher, and call it a day. Maybe, tops, we sign Flaherty (no comp pick lost) and add a catcher, somehow.

Conner is going to get tired playing every day.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Conner is going to get tired playing every day.

This Narvaez kid is supposed to be the real deal on D, including handling the staff. His issue is high Ks and offense, but he does have 20 HR power and a .350 OBP on the farm, so maybe we found a hidden gem.

I'd feel better added a good all around catcher.

I still think pitching is a greater need. We could use a big RHB, so a trade for Sean Murphy would help solve 2 issues.

[vjcsmoke]

Unless Crochet has an out of the blue Cy Young worthy season with 20+ wins, I don't see us sniffing the playoffs yet again. Outside of him we got more retreads and bargain bin buys who are rehabbing injuries from free agency.

This is the Red Sox version of full throttle - buy broken down pitchers and players to cut price deals and hope one of them can stay off the DL long enough to contribute on the field.

It's a proven recipe for failure.  Get ready to miss the postseason for a 4th year in a row.

[vjcsmoke]

5 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we don't have any more top prospects we can give up for Castillo and despite your views Abreu will not get it done.

The Red Sox won't trade for Castillo even if they were willing to give up good prospects. The man averages 24m dollars per year on remaining 4 years of his deal and the Sox showed they are too cheap to offer any free agent near that range of salary. 

And I know we made a fake run at Soto, but JWH wasn't really serious or he would have said, here's 750m, lets see if the Mets go 800m. It was never going to happen and they knew it.

[moonslav59]

Cam Booser to CWS for a minor league pitcher. This must be to make room for Sandoval, who needs to be on the 40 man until opening day, when he will be placed on the 60 Day IL.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, vjcsmoke said:

The Red Sox won't trade for Castillo even if they were willing to give up good prospects. The man averages 24m dollars per year on remaining 4 years of his deal and the Sox showed they are too cheap to offer any free agent near that range of salary. 

And I know we made a fake run at Soto, but JWH wasn't really serious or he would have said, here's 750m, lets see if the Mets go 800m. It was never going to happen and they knew it.

I'm not so sure. We basically will pay Sandoval $18M for 1 year, is $24M for Castillo really that much more?

Yes, the years matter, and now that Sandoval is on the books, getting Castillo is a longshot.

Also, let's say we trade Rafaela for Castillo, his AAV is $6M a tear for 7 more years vs Castillo's $2M x 3 (21.6M x 3 tax line) This would cost JH about $18M a year (close to Sandoval's actual pay for one year) for 3 years, then save him $6M for the next 4 years ($24M total.) The total  money cost would be $72M for Castillo vs $49M for Castillo, or a cost of $23M total (3 yrs of Castillo.)

I'm not advocating this trade, but just presenting a way that might make financial sense to miser (no, the "t" is not missing from "mister.") Henry.

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not so sure. We basically will pay Sandoval $18M for 1 year, is $24M for Castillo really that much more?

Yes, the years matter, and now that Sandoval is on the books, getting Castillo is a longshot.

Also, let's say we trade Rafaela for Castillo, his AAV is $6M a tear for 7 more years vs Castillo's $2M x 3 (21.6M x 3 tax line) This would cost JH about $18M a year (close to Sandoval's actual pay for one year) for 3 years, then save him $6M for the next 4 years ($24M total.) The total  money cost would be $72M for Castillo vs $49M for Castillo, or a cost of $23M total (3 yrs of Castillo.)

I'm not advocating this trade, but just presenting a way that might make financial sense to miser (no, the "t" is not missing from "mister.") Henry.

 

 

the Mariners think Castillo is on par with Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux and Nolan Ryan so no way they'd do that deal. they need to trade him for whatever they can get, even if it is a low-level minor leaguer so they can use that money to sign Alonso. with the pitching depth they have, they can afford to part with him to upgrade at 1B.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the Mariners think Castillo is on par with Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux and Nolan Ryan so no way they'd do that deal. they need to trade him for whatever they can get, even if it is a low-level minor leaguer so they can use that money to sign Alonso. with the pitching depth they have, they can afford to part with him to upgrade at 1B.

I assumed we'd give something with Rafaela, but not a top prospect or player...maybe Rafaela + Fitts or Priester, or maybe DHam. If they say no, then move on.

They do not think Castillo is Pedro. Why say stuff like that?

[Duran Is The Man]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I assumed we'd give something with Rafaela, but not a top prospect or player...maybe Rafaela + Fitts or Priester, or maybe DHam. If they say no, then move on.

They do not think Castillo is Pedro. Why say stuff like that?

because, IMHO, they think he's worth more than what he is. they seem like my dad....everything he has for sale is worth a mint, yet thinks anything anyone else has for sale (no matter how good) is garbage. like i said, they'd be better off trading his money for someone like Alonso. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

because, IMHO, they think he's worth more than what he is. they seem like my dad....everything he has for sale is worth a mint, yet thinks anything anyone else has for sale (no matter how good) is garbage. like i said, they'd be better off trading his money for someone like Alonso. 

What do you think he's worth?

Apparently, they turned down our offer of an oft-injured s***** defensive 1Bman.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Cam Booser to CWS for a minor league pitcher. This must be to make room for Sandoval, who needs to be on the 40 man until opening day, when he will be placed on the 60 Day IL.

Kind of strange that we would weaken our bullpen depth, which is not very deep, to add a pitcher that likely will not contribute until 2026?