A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Very steep. 2 of our top 5 prospects, plus Meidroth (a top 10.)

[Larry Cook]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's more than I thought it would take to get 2 years of an injury-prone pitcher with a half season of success.

I guess the going rate is pretty high.

What can we get for Crawford or Bello?

Is pivetta still available?? 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is pivetta still available?? 

Yup. Within the context of having Crochet, I would not mind having Pivetta start over Crawford, and beef up the pen by putting an innings eater, like Crawford in the pen.

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Very steep. 2 of our top 5 prospects, plus Meidroth (a top 10.)

It's a big 3 again. 

[mvp 78]

Carson Kelly time? 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Carson Kelly time? 

I think the Cubs are close to signing Kelly.

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I think the Cubs are close to signing Kelly.

Pen hasn't been put to paper. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pen hasn't been put to paper. 

We can still swoop in and offer a couple hundred K more!

Imagine, the Sox outbidding someone!

[Larry Cook]

I am excited to have crochet regardless of the cost. He can slot into the top of the rotation and bump criswell to Worcester. 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I am excited to have crochet regardless of the cost. He can slot into the top of the rotation and bump criswell to Worcester. 

i'm liking it more and more.

[moonslav59]

Anthony Franco reports that the Sox are still "on the hunt for starting pitching, " and "is still engaged on Corbin Burnes as well as mid-tier rotation targets."

"That could evidently, take the form of either a free agent or a trade."

Jon Morosi differs with harmony and tweeted that the Sox "are still having discussions with the Mariners regarding their starting pitching."

Franco on Luis Castillo: SEA is "open to discussing" him.

[moonslav59]

So this is how we look, as of now...

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford (Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Gambrell)

RP: Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson, Fulmer (Penrod, Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, I Campbell, Mata, Shugart)

C: Wong, Narvaez (Gasper, Zavala)

1B: Casas (Jordan)

2B: DHam-Grissom (Campbell)

SS: Story, Romy  (Mayer)

3B: Devers (Eaton)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia)

RF: Abreu (Anthony)

DH: Yoshida (Hickey)

(Anthony and Campbell could win FT positions.)

The weak points:

1. Closer

2. SP

3. RHB (Campbell?)

4. Catcher

5. More pen help

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Anthony Franco reports that the Sox are still "on the hunt for starting pitching, " and "is still engaged on Corbin Burnes as well as mid-tier rotation targets."

"That could evidently, take the form of either a free agent or a trade."

Jon Morosi differs with harmony and tweeted that the Sox "are still having discussions with the Mariners regarding their starting pitching."

Franco on Luis Castillo: SEA is "open to discussing" him.

I think the Sox are looking to trade from their major league roster to Seattle for prospects in the top 10 in Seattle! 

[moonslav59]

SEA is seeking a RHd 1Bman, so Casas is becoming a switch hitter to accommodate their needs.

What a team player!

[moonslav59]

Are we done trading high end prospects, for a while?

(I'll guess yes.)

Can we expect one sizeable FA signing?

(I would think so, but with this ownership group, who knows?)

Maybe Castillo or Lopez might be acquired, using Casas and or Abreu and others not named Duran, Anthony or Campbell. Maybe we sign Burnes, Manaea, Pivetta or Flaherty. Maybe we sign Bregman or trade for Arenado and finally make a serious effort to improve our corner IF defense. Maybe we do some sort of combination of both: add another quality SPer and 3B who knows how to play 3B.

Burnes and Arenado or Lopez and Bregman would be the top end moves and is likely a pipedream.

Pivetta and Arenado might be possible, but a lot depends on how Devers takes the call to move to 1B/DH.

In terms of keeping the offense strong, keeping Casas while adding a 3Bman would be best, but then Yoshida gets crowded out (traded) or moves to LF (Duran to CF.)

C: Wong- Narvaez

1B: Devers-Casas

DH: Casas-Devers (Refsnyder-Yoshida)

2B: Campbell (DHam-Grissom)

SS: Story, Romy (Mayer)

3B: Bregman or Arenado (Devers)

LF: Yoshida- Refsnyder (Duran)

CF: Duran-Rafaela

RF: Anthony- Abreo (if not traded)

 

Of course, trading/benching/DH'ing Yoshida greatly improves our OF D:

LF: Duran v R/ Refsnyder v L

CF: Anthony v R/Duran v L (Rafaela)

RF: Abreu v R/ Anthony v L
 

 

[moonslav59]

I've tried dumping Yoshida off on STL as part of their Arenado dump trade wish, but I doubt they go for it.

How about this:

Trade Cespedes, Bleis and Fitts for Arenado and $7M x 3 years. (COL pays $5M x 2, already.) That puts his cost at $20M in 2025, $15M in '26 and $8M in '27. (AAV of $18.5 x 3 yrs) That's still a bad contract, but our corner IF improves, greatly.

Sign: Jack Flaherty $130M/5 (no comp pick lost) and Jeff Hoffman $50M/4 (Maybe Elias Diaz, if we don't trust Narvaez.) We get a comp pick for not re-signing Pivetta and signing Flaherty, instead.

SP: Crochet, Flaherty, Houck, Bello, Giolito (Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Dobbins)

RP: Chapman, Hoffman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson (Criswell & AAA SP'ers, Guerrero, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, I campbell, Mata, Booser, Shugart)

1. Duran LF/CF

2. Devers 1B/DH

3. Story SS

4. Casas DH/1B

5. Campbell 2B

6. Anthony RF/CF

7. Abreu RF/Refsnyder LF

8. Arenado 3B

9. Wong-Narvaez (Diaz?)

Utility: Rafaela, DHam, Grissom, Yoshida (IL) (Mayer, Romy, Gasper, Sogard, Eaton, Zavala)

 

[moonslav59]

Are the Astros the new 2019 Red Sox?

Sports talk shows are going nutty, here.

Bregman is all but gone. Tucker and Framber may be dealt. No farm left to save them. An owner that wants to keep the budget tighter than what is needed to stay relevant.

Check, check, check.

[drewski6]

1. I think Yoshi is here to stay, and I think if we got Bregman, he would most likely slot into 2B to start the year. Campbell is not even on the 40man (neither is ANthony).

Frankly, I do not think the plan is to start the year with them on the big club. Things can change, of course, if Campbell is mashing at AAA and our infield D really stinks and Masa rebounds some trade value, then maybe you add Campbell to the 40 man and shift some things around.

Likewise, I feel confident that our most likely move is a righty OF bat (Teoscar or Santander). I dont think the plan is to just pencil in Anthony who is not on the 40 man.  Again things can change, you can always flip Abreu mid season to create a spot for a prospect, but I dont think they are going to start the year in MLB>

[drewski6]

Here are the moves I see coming , in order of likelihood

1. Teoscar OR Santander

2. Another SP not named Burnes (Buehler, Manaea, Pivetta, Castillo)

3. Another Catcher

4. Reliever (hopefully via trade, dont love remaining options in FA)

4. Bregman

5. Burnes

[drewski6]

To me, Bregman and Arrenado are not in the same universe. Mostly because of Bregmans defensive versatility (he's a SS by trade). You can play Breg at 2b, ss not Arrenado, also Breg had a very good second half of the season with his bat also.

I think defensive versatility will play a significant factor in decisions. For example, if you have Bregman signed to term, he can move around the infield so you are most likely able to accommodate getting Campbell and/or Mayer in there at some point. Similar reason, this is why I think we are more likely to see Campbell than Anthony in the nearish term.

If Story spends time on the DL, I think Id rather have Bregman at SS than Cedanne.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Here are the moves I see coming , in order of likelihood

1. Teoscar OR Santander

2. Another SP not named Burnes (Buehler, Manaea, Pivetta, Castillo)

3. Another Catcher

4. Reliever (hopefully via trade, dont love remaining options in FA)

4. Bregman

5. Burnes

I think Hoffman would be a nice fit in the pen. Maybe we go one year on Yates, and hope he has one more good year in him.

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Hoffman would be a nice fit in the pen. Maybe we go one year on Yates, and hope he has one more good year in him.

Im not so sure Hoffman sees himself as a reliever. BUt if we are still hunting for a SP also, he could make sense as you could try him in either role. Especially if hes paid like a reliever (thinking 14m AAV vs 23)

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not so sure Hoffman sees himself as a reliever. BUt if we are still hunting for a SP also, he could make sense as you could try him in either role. Especially if hes paid like a reliever (thinking 14m AAV vs 23)

He's been one of the RP'er the last 2 years combined.

Career:

5.64 SP (.861 OPSA)

3.96 RP (.701)

2.28 ERA 2023-2024 (all as RP) 2.54 FIP and 0.944 WHIP

3.6 fWAR places him 4th among RP'ers with 110 IP

26% K-BB% (4th best)

#1 in FIP- at 60 (6th in xFIP)

A nice 0.68 HR/9 rate

[a700hitter]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I've tried dumping Yoshida off on STL as part of their Arenado dump trade wish, but I doubt they go for it.

How about this:

Trade Cespedes, Bleis and Fitts for Arenado and $7M x 3 years. (COL pays $5M x 2, already.) That puts his cost at $20M in 2025, $15M in '26 and $8M in '27. (AAV of $18.5 x 3 yrs) That's still a bad contract, but our corner IF improves, greatly.

Sign: Jack Flaherty $130M/5 (no comp pick lost) and Jeff Hoffman $50M/4 (Maybe Elias Diaz, if we don't trust Narvaez.) We get a comp pick for not re-signing Pivetta and signing Flaherty, instead.

SP: Crochet, Flaherty, Houck, Bello, Giolito (Crawford, Criswell, Priester, Dobbins)

RP: Chapman, Hoffman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson (Criswell & AAA SP'ers, Guerrero, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, I campbell, Mata, Booser, Shugart)

1. Duran LF/CF

2. Devers 1B/DH

3. Story SS

4. Casas DH/1B

5. Campbell 2B

6. Anthony RF/CF

7. Abreu RF/Refsnyder LF

8. Arenado 3B

9. Wong-Narvaez (Diaz?)

Utility: Rafaela, DHam, Grissom, Yoshida (IL) (Mayer, Romy, Gasper, Sogard, Eaton, Zavala)

 

I like the pitching.  If Devers is healthy, the lineup might have enough consistency and punch, but it doesn’t make me feel great.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's been one of the RP'er the last 2 years combined.

Career:

5.64 SP (.861 OPSA)

3.96 RP (.701)

2.28 ERA 2023-2024 (all as RP) 2.54 FIP and 0.944 WHIP

3.6 fWAR places him 4th among RP'ers with 110 IP

26% K-BB% (4th best)

#1 in FIP- at 60 (6th in xFIP)

A nice 0.68 HR/9 rate

But hes vocal about welcoming a chance to start , and you dont know that his recent success as a RP wouldnt translate to SP.

Im not against signing him if he can be had for a modest contract (lets say under 15 AAV), but try him in the rotation first, likely, as 1. this will help you sign him and 2. if he works out as a starter his contract becomes a steal.

Worst case scenario transiition him back.

But hes a good call out, by you, as a target that I initially overlooked when I said
 

"Another SP not named Burnes (Buehler, Manaea, Pivetta, Castillo)"

He may ultimately be a reliever , even a closer.  BUt he should still go into the above category as my grouping of #2 most likely pick-ups 

[moonslav59]

Carlos Estevez might be a nice pen addition.

2023-2024:

3.22 ERA/ 3.61 FIP (1.22 WHIP)

.554 OPSA in 2024

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But hes vocal about welcoming a chance to start , and you dont know that his recent success as a RP wouldnt translate to SP.

Im not against signing him if he can be had for a modest contract (lets say under 15 AAV), but try him in the rotation first, likely, as 1. this will help you sign him and 2. if he works out as a starter his contract becomes a steal.

Worst case scenario transiition him back.

But hes a good call out, by you, as a target that I initially overlooked when I said
 

"Another SP not named Burnes (Buehler, Manaea, Pivetta, Castillo)"

He may ultimately be a reliever , even a closer.  BUt he should still go into the above category as my grouping of #2 most likely pick-ups 

Like Strahm?

[Larry Cook]

I think bres-slow is looking for more preister type guys. I know Atlanta and Pittsburgh both have one. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think bres-slow is looking for more preister type guys. I know Atlanta and Pittsburgh both have one. 

I do think Brez has a winter budget to be able to spend on one big name or a couple mid-level FAs.

A trade like you suggest would be a nice compliment to adding a couple FAs.

We still have an unbalanced roster with a lack of pitching.

[drewski6]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Like Strahm?

Or like Crochet