Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

That doesn’t explain why you think they’re two years away.  If the biggest issue is pitching, what’s this fix that’s going to hit in 2026?  They don’t even have any major money coming off the books before then.  Not that Henry would re-invest it anyway.

 

 

Henry isn’t going to heavily invest until the kids are ready if ever. Kids won’t be fully ready until 2026. If you can get a guy a year early like Beiber, go for it. His 2025 won’t matter all that much IMO.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Henry isn’t going to heavily invest until the kids are ready if ever. Kids won’t be fully ready until 2026. If you can get a guy a year early like Beiber, go for it. His 2025 won’t matter all that much IMO.

this is, again, insane, if that's the way he thinks. teams like the Dodgers go out and get what they need when they need it and try to improve the team every chance they get. they don't wait until a bunch of suspects might or might not make the show. f***ing insane.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think anyone is saying it isn't stupid.  We're just trying to think like the Sox owners and brain trust are thinking.  That probably does make us stupid, admittedly.

So we’re trying to think like ownership and being admittedly stupid?  That’s condescending.  Fair, but condescending.

An ace would clearly help this team.  It’s the quickest of quick fixes.  As the Sox do not have one now or on the immediate horizon, they have two options.  Free agency and trades.

We as fans greatly prefer free agency.  After all, it’s only money.  And more specifically, it’s someone else’s money.

But, with absolutely no proof, I strongly believe owners prefer trades.  And don’t care as much about those prospects, many of whom are not packing the seats and have little to no impact on the bottom line.  And many never will.

I have no idea what top tier starters will be available this offseason.  Garret Crochet will.  Not sure who else if anyone. But this is the type of player the Sox should move on.  Corban Burnes will cost $240-$257 mill over 8-10 years, and then flame out in 3 or 4, if his new team is lucky.  And if that new team is Boston, he’ll be packaged off with Roman Anthony in a cost-cutting move that will ultimately kill spending, possibly forever.

Per BTV, Crochet’s value is less than Mayer or Anthony right now.  Obviously the White Sox jump at Anthony, but I hope this means he costs less.  A package centered around Wilyer Abreu will NOT do it. But in the end,  I expect any trade for Crochet (or equivalent) to be like a Marriott Courtyard - pricey and uncomfortable.  But, hey, it’s only prospects.  

[notin]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Henry isn’t going to heavily invest until the kids are ready if ever. Kids won’t be fully ready until 2026. If you can get a guy a year early like Beiber, go for it. His 2025 won’t matter all that much IMO.

Why wait for the kids?

If the Sox merely kept Sale, they’re how many games better? What’s Sale worth over Cooper Criswell?

That tells you how close they are NOW.  It’s not like Anthony, Mayer and Teel  (yes, it sounds like a law firm) are all going to hit the ground running in 2026.  And it’s not like any topflight starter for 2025 will be washed up by then or departed into free agency.  
 

In fact, it would be a shrewd business move to invest in a (healthy) pitcher this off-season  Wait a year and the pitcher only gets pricier.  What’s the downside? Worse 2026 draft pick, dropping from 17th to 23rd? I think the Sox can survive that…

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Why wait for the kids?

If the Sox merely kept Sale, they’re how many games better? What’s Sale worth over Cooper Criswell?

That tells you how close they are NOW.  It’s not like Anthony, Mayer and Teel  (yes, it sounds like a law firm) are all going to hit the ground running in 2026.  And it’s not like any topflight starter for 2025 will be washed up by then or departed into free agency.  
 

In fact, it would be a shrewd business move to invest in a (healthy) pitcher this off-season  Wait a year and the pitcher only gets pricier.  What’s the downside? Worse 2026 draft pick, dropping from 17th to 23rd? I think the Sox can survive that…

I don't think any of us actually disagree with you on this.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think any of us actually disagree with you on this.

So the negativity is more of a prediction than what you think they should do?

 

I mean, at one point someone agreed that waiting until 2026 was a good idea or the right plan.

 

[notin]

Per BTV, Garret Crochet to Boston for Kristian Campbell and Wilyer Abreu is a fair trade.  Crochet has two years left, but is upfront about wanting an extension.
 

Granted, at this point in time BTV severely undervalues Campbell, giving him a surplus value of $17.1 mill.  This makes him far less valuable than even Abreu ($28.6mill).

Disregarding this little flaw - fair trade? Would you do it? Would Chicago, in your opinion?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Henry isn’t going to heavily invest until the kids are ready if ever. Kids won’t be fully ready until 2026. If you can get a guy a year early like Beiber, go for it. His 2025 won’t matter all that much IMO.

Sadly, I think this is the truth. One could even argue 2027, when the kids are more established.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 8/30/2024 at 9:02 AM, notin said:

That’s what Giolito probably is…

maybe but my understanding was that he would be ready at the START of next year

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Why wait for the kids?

If the Sox merely kept Sale, they’re how many games better? What’s Sale worth over Cooper Criswell?

That tells you how close they are NOW.  It’s not like Anthony, Mayer and Teel  (yes, it sounds like a law firm) are all going to hit the ground running in 2026.  And it’s not like any topflight starter for 2025 will be washed up by then or departed into free agency.  
 

In fact, it would be a shrewd business move to invest in a (healthy) pitcher this off-season  Wait a year and the pitcher only gets pricier.  What’s the downside? Worse 2026 draft pick, dropping from 17th to 23rd? I think the Sox can survive that…

Well…..I have hope we might be picking 30th next year

[Maxbialystock]

This thread continues to be a good discussion of the Sox future (and past).  

I think just about everyone agrees pitching is the problem and that a good starter--or two--is/are needed ASAP.  Plus 2 or more good bullpen arms.

moonslav has pointed out the Sox could do some of that this offseason and still stay below the $241M threshold.  I think he said around $60M or $80M would be available.

The problem, as is universally agreed upon here on talksox, is with the owner John Henry.  Somewhere around 2019 he seems to have put his foot down and insisted, "no more with the big bucks for great arms that go sour."  In his defense--and I'm the only one defending him these days--the 2019 Sox not only had the highest payroll in MLB, they had a CBO, David Dombrowski, who was and is excellent, but who back then needed a lot more money to keep Mookie Betts from the Dodgers and to replace Price and Sale while still paying them $40M/year or whatever it was.  

That was then.  Price is long gone, and this is the last year of paying Sale ($17M) for not pitching for the Sox. 

Unfortunately, however, the brand new CBO, a Yale man with 12 years MLB pitching experience, dumped Sale to the Braves for whom he is a Cy Young candidate, and signed Giolito for $19M/year, the first year of which was/is money down the drain.  

Moreover, Breslow did little too improve the 2024 Sox over last season.  The rotation--especially Houck, Crawford, Bello,  and Pivetta--are all guys from last year, and most of the bullpen is too.  Same goes for the lineup.  And don't forget Cora, who was just re-signed for 3 years and $21M. 

So, while I agree with all of you who insist the Sox need to invest much more in arms and maybe even a bat or two, I'm still mindful that neither Breslow (so far) nor Bloom inspired much confidence--and that John Henry came into Sox ownership more than willing to underwrite a payroll that for almost 20 seasons was in the top 3 in MLB.   

[moonslav59]

Brez did add Slaten and Criswell. He also added a few pitchers who looked pretty good, on paper, but have not been a plus in 2024, most notably Gio, Weissert, I Campbell, Hendriks and Fulmer. They may help in 2025. He also add prospects Sandlin, Fitts, Priester and Judice. I think the jury is still out on his 2024 moves, except to say not much helped, this year and this year only.

I like the Dugo-O'Neill switch out: RHB for LHB, while flipping Nick Robertson and Victor Santos for Weissert, Fitts and Judice. I think we got a plus on O and pitching on those two deals combined.

I like the Slaten, Sandlin and Priester additions, but it's all speculation. I do admire the attempt to improve the farm pitching, and Brez also drafted more pitchers than we have in a long time.

The deadline deals all soured, except for maybe Jansen, and none but maybe the Priester deals will help in 2025 and beyond.

I do think Brez tried to make a difference more than Bloom did, but we have to start connecting on some of our bigger deals, and soon!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Henry and the front office are patiently sticking with their longterm plan. They'll wait to promote top positional first-rounders until each of their 27 top pitching prospects hit their "ceiling as back-end starter" ...

"You can never have enough dingers," blabbed Sam. "We're confident the core of our batting order will out-homer our 'pitch-to-sweetspot' mound staff. And any Rich Hill training all summer throwing Little League BP will be better than a 50 or 60-year old we can sign from the adult old-timers' leagues."

[notin]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Henry isn’t going to heavily invest until the kids are ready if ever. Kids won’t be fully ready until 2026. If you can get a guy a year early like Beiber, go for it. His 2025 won’t matter all that much IMO.

Not sure what your source is, but I don’t think Henry is ever going to “heavily invest “ again….

[Bellhorn04]

58 minutes ago, notin said:

Not sure what your source is, but I don’t think Henry is ever going to “heavily invest “ again….

He might.  It's almost as if he likes to keep us guessing.  He did authorize extensions for Cora, Bello and Rafaela, and they offered one to Casas as well.  

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He might.  It's almost as if he likes to keep us guessing.  He did authorize extensions for Cora, Bello and Rafaela, and they offered one to Casas as well.  

So he’s doing the “sustained roster from within” thing.  
 

The Sox haven’t signed a starting pitcher to a multi year deal since who? Chris Sale?

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

So he’s doing the “sustained roster from within” thing.  
 

The Sox haven’t signed a starting pitcher to a multi year deal since who? Chris Sale?

If multi includes two it would be Giolito.  If not it would be Eovaldi.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If multi includes two it would be Giolito.  If not it would be Eovaldi.

Guaranteed multi year contracts only. 
 

Giolito was one year with an option.  Eovaldi signed 3 months before Sale did back in March, 2019…

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Guaranteed multi year contracts only. 
 

Giolito was one year with an option.  Eovaldi signed 3 months before Sale did back in March, 2019…

I believe Giolito was 2 years guaranteed for the player, with an opt-out after one year.

 

 

[Nick]

What would it take get the Detroit starter?

Duran

Mayer, Teel and Anthony.

It appears a bold move is needed to acquire top pitching talent.

 

Would that do it?

 

Edited September 1, 2024 by Nick
additional comment

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Nick said:

What would it take get the Detroit starter?

Duran

Mayer, Teel and Anthony.

 

Would that do it?

 

Jarren Duran, Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer, and Roman Anthony for Skubal? 
 

 

[Nick]

Great pitching trumps good hitters. Did you watch yesterday's game?

Never mind, this is already his Arbitration 1 year and his agent is Scott Boras.

No way in hell of signing him when he's a FA.

I thought he was under team control for another 4 years or so.

I may give up the prospects but not Duran.

 

 

 

[notin]

27 minutes ago, Nick said:

What would it take get the Detroit starter?

Duran

Mayer, Teel and Anthony.

It appears a bold move is needed to acquire top pitching talent.

 

Would that do it?

 

BTV lists Mayer (65.4) and Kutter Crawford (31.1) as being an equal trade for two seasons of Tarik Skubal (97.4).  
 

Not so sure Detroit agrees, however…

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Nick said:

What would it take get the Detroit starter?

Duran

Mayer, Teel and Anthony.

It appears a bold move is needed to acquire top pitching talent.

 

Would that do it?

 

Did you propose on your prom as well?

That offer wreaks of overpayment, desperation and loneliness.

Yes that offer will absolutely get Skubal.  And possibly the Detroit CBO will throw in his wife, kids and lake house…

[notin]

Mayer is reportedly on the trading block this off-season.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-shockingly-place-top-prospect-on-trading-block-in-proposed-winter-move-colin3

[Bellhorn04]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

Mayer is reportedly on the trading block this off-season.

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-shockingly-place-top-prospect-on-trading-block-in-proposed-winter-move-colin3

Where did this come from, other than inside the writer's head?  I see nary a quote in it. 

Edit: I think what probably happened here is that the guy who wrote the story didn't write the headline.  A clickbait headline was chosen by the publisher.

 

[moonslav59]

Skubal & Crochet both have 2 arb years left. Unless we extend them after a trade, I don't think a 2 year window is big enough to trade so much young talent for.

Deals like Luis Castillo and Pablo Lopez do come up, here and there: both were extended after the trades.

If I'm giving up two our top 4 prospects (Anthony or Campbell plus Mayer or Teel,) I'm looking for longer team control pitchers like...

Logan Gilbert (3 arbs),  George Kirby (4 arbs) or 2 pre-arb guys like Bryce Miller & Bryan Woo, who might take 3 top prospects to get (only 1 from Anthony & Campbell.)

We could also look to trade for a higher salary guy like Luis Castillo ($21.6M AAV through 2027 w option for 2028,) and it wouldn't cost as much in prospects to make happen. This, of course, depends on SEA's willingness to trade pitching for hitting. We'd likely have to WOW them to get a deal.

Mayer, Teel, Abreu and Winckowski might be enough.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Where did this come from, other than inside the writer's head?  I see nary a quote in it. 

It's in MVP's head, too.

I could see choosing Mayer as the one top prospect to trade away, but with out middle infield being the weakest area on our every day roster, I don't really like the idea, unless it brings back someone like George Kirby and his 4 years of arb control.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Where did this come from, other than inside the writer's head?  I see nary a quote in it. 

How many Red Sox players  were supposedly on the trading block last offseason, and are still with the Red Sox today? Story, Masa, Martin, and Jansen to name a few.

[Nick]

Let's take another shot at the Detroit ace who has two years left on his contract.

With Giolito coming back along with Houck, Bello and Kutter, and no additional money needed (the Detroit ace may command something like $10M for his arbitration 2 contract), would it be worth giving up Teel, Mayer and Anthony just for the priviledge to chase down 2 world series titles?

 

At my age, 68, I'd say lets gamble. We'll have full year of Casas, Trvevor is coming back. Or would Detroit want someone like Kutter in place of one of three top prospects?

 

So, Kutter, two out of three of Mayer, Teel and Anthony. Would that do it and would you do it?

I'd say why in the hell not?