Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Hugh2]

Rich beyond belief, playing for a team committed to winning, in the best weather in the country...

 

... though hitting in Petco Park isn't quite like the Fenway experience.

 

No but last year he hit much better at Petco park than he did on the road, oddly enough.

[Bellhorn04]

A strong word, I was replying to a poster. But you know how it goes in here. It’s like one giant game of telephone down a rabbit hole.

 

True that!

[mvp 78]

It hasn't really been established as a myth.

 

When was the 162 offered? Who reported it?

[Bellhorn04]

When was the 162 offered? Who reported it?

 

I think it was reported shortly after Bogaerts signed with San Diego. Not sure by who.

[Hugh2]

I think it was reported shortly after Bogaerts signed with San Diego. Not sure by who.

 

Alex Speier

[Bellhorn04]

The parallels between the Lester *negotiations* and the Bogaerts *negotiations* are embarrassingly similar, and suggest that the CBO's had little to do with them. They have Henry's pawprints all over them.

[Randy Red Sox]

The parallels between the Lester *negotiations* and the Bogaerts *negotiations* are embarrassingly similar, and suggest that the CBO's had little to do with them. They have Henry's pawprints all over them.

 

too bad we can't have Henry's paw prints on some $$$ to improve the pitching !!

[Randy Red Sox]

I agree with the backfire part.

 

A keystone combo of healthy Bogey and Story would have been buttah.

 

There is ZERO chance Story would have been signed if the Sox didn't know Henry would not buck up for XB. NO CHANCE IN HE$$

[Randy Red Sox]

I didn’t like the signing, but the pre-emptive strike might have made sense depending on the negotiations. And Story has shown some skills the Sox sorely need. But he needs to stay on the field.

 

But kudos to your 20/20 hindsight. I assume it is because you keep bashing the Sale trade despite Sale having more health concerns than Story had…

 

if you would stop defending Henry for just a minute you might be willing to admit that even almost every big move the Sox have made has backfired and YES that includes the Sale trade too.

[moonslav59]

If I remember correctly, didn’t Bogey say he would have accepted the Story contract? Which was less than 162/6? Was Xander lying?

 

I never remember that or even anything close to that.

[notin]

if you would stop defending Henry for just a minute you might be willing to admit that even almost every big move the Sox have made has backfired and YES that includes the Sale trade too.

 

Defending Henry?

 

Because Sale didn’t pitch for four years? After some team - possibly Atlanta - offered to take Sale’s whole deal and give nothing back, and Bloom was ripped for passing. Yet two injuries later, and Sale was a definite keeper?

 

Because I don’t pretend to know all the negotiations and try to pass off theories and suspicions as facts?

 

I don’t defend Henry. I also don’t judge and condemn on hindsight.

 

I guess I’m just not the same level of insider as others…

[notin]

I think it was reported shortly after Bogaerts signed with San Diego. Not sure by who.

 

So it was offered and rejected, and the theory was Bogaerts would have accepted it if it was offered earlier?

[moonslav59]

if you would stop defending Henry for just a minute you might be willing to admit that even almost every big move the Sox have made has backfired and YES that includes the Sale trade too.

 

He said he didn't like the signing. How is that defending JH?

 

Providing legitimate reasons for why some moves that turned our bad were made is not defending JH or the move (in hindsight.)

 

We all agree that most of our biggest deals going back to the Sale extension have been bad or awful.

 

(If you want to start after the Sale, Bogey and Nate deals, disregard the ones in Blue. Black is the post DD era.)

 

Devers extension: Good, so far, but 9 years to go.

Sale extension: Bad deal due to injuries

Story signing: has been awful, so far.

Yoshida signing: starting to look better, but has been decent at best.

Nate re-sign: worked out decently but not great.

Bogey extension: Great, but the opt out killed us.

Giolito: awful, so far

Jansen: good deal

Barnes extension: Bad to awful

Martin: good due to great 2023

Kike I signing: was okay to good due to plus 2021 season

JBJ trade: awful, except for maybe getting DHam.

 

$5M-$10M

Richards signing: awful

Kluber signing: awful

Kike II signing: awful

Ottavino trade: okay

Wacha: good, despite missed time

Duvall: good

O'Neill trade: great

Perez I & Perez II: okay to bad

Hill: good for the money ($5M)

Diekman: bad but we unloaded his deal for McGuire.

Bello, Rafaela & Whitlock extensions: TBD

 

Did I miss anything?

 

Sale trade: awful (saved $10M, so not really a financial addition.)

Betts trade: awful

Dugo trade: okay

Renfroe trade: maybe DHam redeems

 

Randy, do you agree or disagree with any of the grades I gave?

 

Does it look like this is defending JH?

 

 

Some of our $3M/1 deals worked out well: Renfroe & Starhm

[Bellhorn04]

So it was offered and rejected, and the theory was Bogaerts would have accepted it if it was offered earlier?

 

That's correct. By the time the 6/162 offer came from the Sox, Boras was reportedly already fielding 200 million + offers.

 

Story got 140 million, Bogaerts got 280 million. That obviously makes no sense and was a product of temporary insanity in the market. Bogaerts got a lot more than Snell, Montgomery, Chapman and Bellinger got in total just one year later!

 

Xander would have to be Nostradamus and Edgar Cayce rolled into one to see he had a 280 million payday coming.

[moonslav59]

That's correct. By the time the 6/162 offer came from the Sox, Boras was reportedly already fielding 200 million + offers.

 

Story got 140 million, Bogaerts got 280 million. That obviously makes no sense and was a product of temporary insanity in the market. Bogaerts got a lot more than Snell, Montgomery, Chapman and Bellinger got in total just one year later!

 

Xander would have to be Nostradamus and Edgar Cayce rolled into one to see he had a 280 million payday coming.

 

Agreed, but I do think expecting $200M offers was entirely within reason for a SS with his consistent record. I think might have expected something like $220M/9 or $230M/10.

 

I just don't think the Sox would ever have come near offering that amount, and that is why they signed Story and apparently never even made an official offer, until maybe that one at the end. They knew, through talks, that they were far away from making an acceptable offer.

 

To me, the best chance they had was when he signed the contract with DD. Maybe offering more, then, and not having an opt out, or pushing the opt out back a year or two was our best chance at signing him, within the context of how high JH would ever go.

 

With XB's defense not being all that good, and some metrics say he was among the very worst, I can understand why no $200M offer was made. In hindsight, if this decline in his offense is for real, maybe we made the right call. It will take years to know this. (This is not to say I am glad he is not still here. I wish we still had him.)

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but I do think expecting $200M offers was entirely within reason for a SS with his consistent record. I think might have expected something like $220M/9 or $230M/10.

 

How exactly was he that much better than Story?

 

Some numbers please!

[moonslav59]

How exactly was he that much better than Story?

 

Some numbers please!

 

I'm saying what he might have expected. Story probably expected more than $140M/6, too.

 

One major difference was that Bogey was not recently injured when signed.

 

I do not think Bogey expected as low as $162M/6. I think he was looking for 7-8 years, minimum. Maybe $190M/7. Semien got $175M/7. Seager got $325M/10. Lindor got $341M/10. Do those numbers matter?

 

I'm just talking what I think he and BorA$$ were "expecting," and not what I think they'd get.

 

What was Monty expecting, last winter?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm saying what he might have expected. Story probably expected more than $140M/6, too.

 

One major difference was that Bogey was not recently injured when signed.

 

I do not think Bogey expected as low as $162M/6. I think he was looking for 7-8 years, minimum. Maybe $190M/7. Semien got $175M/7. Seager got $325M/10. Lindor got $341M/10. Do those numbers matter?

 

I'm just talking what I think he and BorA$$ were "expecting," and not what I think they'd get.

 

What was Monty expecting, last winter?

 

Well, all we can do is speculate, moon, so we might as well leave it there.

[moonslav59]

Well, all we can do is speculate, moon, so we might as well leave it there.

 

Do you really think all he "expected" was near $162M/6? With BorA$$ as his agent?

 

I could be wrong with my speculation, for sure, but I think if he was happy with $162M/6, we'd have made a real offer, somewhere near that 2-3 years prior to his signing w SDP.

 

Just my take.

 

He saw what some other SSs got, and was easily justified in thinking $200M was legit, even if $200M/11.

[mvp 78]

Before this weekend, I wasn't ready for this thread. I think I'm there now.

The pitching needs a massive overhaul. Pivetta is out and Giolito will be in. What other changes could we expect? 

Bello - ceiling of midrotation guy

Houck - I'm not a big believer in him, but he's another midrotation that can have great stretches

Crawford - backend starter

Giolito - innings eater

Criswell - backend starter

Whitlock - meant for the pen

Priester/Fitts - prospect question marks

I think they'd be better off adding two more starters via FA and dealing Crawford or Houck. Houck has decent trade value so they could get something interesting in return. FA/FA/Gio/Bello/Crawford with Criswell and Whitlock in the pen. Criswell could be a swing guy that pitches bulk innings. I'd never have Whitlock throw more than 2 innings in a row again. This helps both the rotation AND the bullpen that ran out of juice at the end of the year.  

[Maxbialystock]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Agreed, but I do think expecting $200M offers was entirely within reason for a SS with his consistent record. I think might have expected something like $220M/9 or $230M/10.

 

I just don't think the Sox would ever have come near offering that amount, and that is why they signed Story and apparently never even made an official offer, until maybe that one at the end. They knew, through talks, that they were far away from making an acceptable offer.

 

To me, the best chance they had was when he signed the contract with DD. Maybe offering more, then, and not having an opt out, or pushing the opt out back a year or two was our best chance at signing him, within the context of how high JH would ever go.

 

With XB's defense not being all that good, and some metrics say he was among the very worst, I can understand why no $200M offer was made. In hindsight, if this decline in his offense is for real, maybe we made the right call. It will take years to know this. (This is not to say I am glad he is not still here. I wish we still had him.)

Good points.  I have jibed constantly at Story because of his absences/injuries, but I do think letting Bogaerts go was the right move and that theoretically a good defensive SS who can also hit (but not as well) made sense.  

Overall, the lineup half of the roster is in pretty good shape right now. 

But the pitching is a mess, largely because the Sox brain trust don't know the first thing about developing or evaluating pitching talent.    

[mvp 78]

Pitching has been ignored since DD left. Breslow tried to turn it around by hiring coaching staff. Now they need to get the talent at the MLB level. They had good results via smoke and mirrors early on, but saw massive regression.

I agree that there doesn't need to be much work done on the offensive side. If Story wasn't damaged goods, the signing would have been fine. The profile was ok, the player selection was not. 

[Duran Is The Man]

18 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Good points.  I have jibed constantly at Story because of his absences/injuries, but I do think letting Bogaerts go was the right move and that theoretically a good defensive SS who can also hit (but not as well) made sense.  

Overall, the lineup half of the roster is in pretty good shape right now. 

But the pitching is a mess, largely because the Sox brain trust don't know the first thing about developing or evaluating pitching talent.    

100%

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Pitching has been ignored since DD left. Breslow tried to turn it around by hiring coaching staff. Now they need to get the talent at the MLB level. They had good results via smoke and mirrors early on, but saw massive regression.

I agree that there doesn't need to be much work done on the offensive side. If Story wasn't damaged goods, the signing would have been fine. The profile was ok, the player selection was not. 

The pitching ignoring actually began after we traded for Nate in the summer of 2018 (under DD.) Sure, DD extended Sale & Nate (not the best of moves, in hindsight,) but he added no other pitchers after Nate. After 2019, we let Kimbrel & Kelly (and PomPom) go without replacing them. To me, that was the start of ignoring, and it showed, immediately.

[mvp 78]

Andrew Cashner?

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The pitching ignoring actually began after we traded for Nate in the summer of 2018 (under DD.) Sure, DD extended Sale & Nate (not the best of moves, in hindsight,) but he added no other pitchers after Nate. After 2019, we let Kimbrel & Kelly (and PomPom) go without replacing them. To me, that was the start of ignoring, and it showed, immediately.

To new honest the Sox have never been serious about adding to their pitching depth

[notin]

Hopefully the Sox do a better job addressing pitching needs this off-season.  Or at least don’t just throw up their arms and quit the second something goes awry.

They will add Giolito next season, but will he be ready in April?  His TJ was in March, and TJ often takes over a year for pitchers.

Pivetta could leave.  If he does the Sox need two SP at a minimum.  Hopefully they haven’t already penned in Priester as one of them.  (IMHO Priester should start in Worcester as SP6.)

I have my doubts they’ll go all in and sign Burnes and Fried for these roles.  They might try and make another move on Garret Crochet, but unless they include someone like Anthony or Mayer, they likely get outbid.  Wilyer Abreu won’t get it done here. Free agency has some less appealing names like Flaherty, Flexen and Manaea.  That’s more the ballpark I’m expecting here.

The Sox might trade from their surpluses at the MLB level.  There are not enough outfield roles for Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Anthony.  Middle infield is even more crowded with Story, Hamilton, Grissom, and Mayer.  They could move someone to third and shift Devers to first, but then Casas is displaced, unless they move him to DH.  Of course, Yoshida is a tough trade and moving him back to the OF just exacerbates that already overcrowded place.

I suppose Casas could be traded, but I’m not expecting that.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Hopefully the Sox do a better job addressing pitching needs this off-season.  Or at least don’t just throw up their arms and quit the second something goes awry.

They will add Giolito next season, but will he be ready in April?  His TJ was in March, and TJ often takes over a year for pitchers.

Pivetta could leave.  If he does the Sox need two SP at a minimum.  Hopefully they haven’t already penned in Priester as one of them.  (IMHO Priester should start in Worcester as SP6.)

I have my doubts they’ll go all in and sign Burnes and Fried for these roles.  They might try and make another move on Garret Crochet, but unless they include someone like Anthony or Mayer, they likely get outbid.  Wilyer Abreu won’t get it done here. Free agency has some less appealing names like Flaherty, Flexen and Manaea.  That’s more the ballpark I’m expecting here.

The Sox might trade from their surpluses at the MLB level.  There are not enough outfield roles for Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Anthony.  Middle infield is even more crowded with Story, Hamilton, Grissom, and Mayer.  They could move someone to third and shift Devers to first, but then Casas is displaced, unless they move him to DH.  Of course, Yoshida is a tough trade and moving him back to the OF just exacerbates that already overcrowded place.

I suppose Casas could be traded, but I’m not expecting that.

As you might say, there's a better chance of them signing you and me than signing both Burnes and Fried.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As you might say, there's a better chance of them signing you and me than signing both Burnes and Fried.

“Burnes and Fried”, for the record, would be a great name for a satirical cooking show starring a comedy duo.

I’m thinking the type of show where the “chefs” try to make macaroni and cheese, but wind up in the burn unit with molten cheddar in their hair.

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

“Burnes and Fried”, for the record, would be a great name for a satirical cooking show starring a comedy duo.

I’m thinking the type of show where the “chefs” try to make macaroni and cheese, but wind up in the burn unit with molten cheddar in their hair.

JP Sears could be on the show too.