Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

Their final offer to Bogaerts was more than what they paid Story.

 

I'm not sure Bogey takes that offer, if it was given 1 or even 2 years earlier.

[Randy Red Sox]

Bogaerts is having a rough year, too. .691 OPS and already moved off position. But hey, only 9 years left!

 

And did you believe the Sox knew they wouldn’t sign Bogaerts because his contract would be too big orb they didn’t want him at any price?

 

 

he has been hurt some but he is still hitting .272-- not horrible

[Randy Red Sox]

Their final offer to Bogaerts was more than what they paid Story.

 

i would hope so. he was homegrown and a better player

[moonslav59]

he has been hurt some but he is still hitting .272-- not horrible

 

I wish we still had him- with or without Story.

 

I will add this...

 

Bogey's fWAR numbers with us, his last 4 full seasons (no 2020):

 

4.6

6.0

4.1

6.0

Averages about 5.2 per season (peak prime years)

 

Since the trade:

4.6

1.6 (which pro-rates to about 2.0 at this rate)

3.3 average/season as he nears 32 years old.

 

There is still a good chance he can top 3.3 for 1-3 more years- maybe even top 4 again, but he may also be around 2-3 for another 2-3 years, then drop even more.

[notin]

he has been hurt some but he is still hitting .272-- not horrible

 

A .691 OPS for a $26mill player who couldn’t keep his position is not a good sign…

[Randy Red Sox]

A .691 OPS for a $26mill player who couldn’t keep his position is not a good sign…

 

at least he is on the field which is more than you say for Story. Say what you want about XB but I take him everyday over Story

[moonslav59]

at least he is on the field which is more than you say for Story. Say what you want about XB but I take him everyday over Story

 

At his current cost? Knowing the tight budget JH demands and how it would mean not signing many other players?

[Randy Red Sox]

At his current cost? Knowing the tight budget JH demands and how it would mean not signing many other players?

 

never once did I say we should pay XB what he got from SD but I also believe he would have signed in Boston for a lot less than he got too. No matter what argument people give me Story was another terrible signing.

[Randy Red Sox]

Trevor Story has played 145 games in 3 years since the signing with a BA around .225. Great signing !!

[moonslav59]

never once did I say we should pay XB what he got from SD but I also believe he would have signed in Boston for a lot less than he got too. No matter what argument people give me Story was another terrible signing.

 

I asked a question not made an accusation.

 

I'm not sure he would have signed for "a lot less," but that is a valid opinion. Personally, I'm not sure he'd have signed for even $200M/7 in the winter of '21-'22 or even $160M/6 some suggest he might take back in the winter of "20-'21. Maybe he'd have taken $200M/8 back then or $217M/7 before '22, but who knows.

 

I think we all agree, we wish he was still here. Are we all still certain he'll earn even $200M/7? (I'm less certain, now as he turns 32, soon.)

 

I think we all agree the Story signing has not worked and would rather have Bogey at near the same price.

 

Are people arguing with you that the Story signing was good or even okay (in hindsight?)

[moonslav59]

Trevor Story has played 145 games in 3 years since the signing with a BA around .225. Great signing !!

 

Who is opposed to this?

[Maxbialystock]

never once did I say we should pay XB what he got from SD but I also believe he would have signed in Boston for a lot less than he got too. No matter what argument people give me Story was another terrible signing.

 

The Sox could no more afford Bogaerts--and you are dead wrong he would take less money in Boston than in San Diego--than they could Mookie.

 

Also, who the heck cares? Bogey couldn't save this team, even in his best years, because eh can't pitch.

 

Without Bogey and without Mookie and without JDM (in his good years), this Sox team is ranked 5th in MLB in runs scored.

 

\This 2024 Sox team can hit and score runs. They just can't pitch.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox could no more afford Bogaerts--and you are dead wrong he would take less money in Boston than in San Diego--than they could Mookie.

 

Max, you seem unfamiliar with the concept of signing a player to an extension before he becomes a free agent.

[notin]

Max, you seem unfamiliar with the concept of signing a player to an extension before he becomes a free agent.

 

While I’m sure Bogaerts was open to an extension, we don’t know what his demands were…

[moonslav59]

While I’m sure Bogaerts was open to an extension, we don’t know what his demands were…

 

We can be pretty sure the two parties were never close enough to get the deal done. That's about it.

 

For argument's sake, let's say the agreed on $210M/7. He's going to be 32 in a couple months, and is showing some signs of decline or injury. He may be moves to another position in the next year or two. Is it clear he will earn $30M a year x 5 more years?

 

[Bellhorn04]

We can be pretty sure the two parties were never close enough to get the deal done. That's about it.

 

For argument's sake, let's say the agreed on $210M/7. He's going to be 32 in a couple months, and is showing some signs of decline or injury. He may be moves to another position in the next year or two. Is it clear he will earn $30M a year x 5 more years?

 

 

I think there's a plausible argument that Bogaerts would have stayed with the Sox for the 6/162 he was finally offered by them, if they went to him around the time Story was signed.

 

The main reason I think this is Story's contract of 6/140. When we signed Story we did some statistical comparisons, and Story was just slightly behind Bogaerts in fWAR per games played. Very close. A 6/162 offer would have represented 15% more than Story got.

 

Also, even though Boras was Bogey's agent, Bogey's previous extension was clearly a team-friendly one.

 

Finally, Bogey seemed to really like playing for the Sox.

 

No one will ever know if the 6/162 would have gotten it done, but at the time that would have been a very legit offer.

 

The contract Bogey got was quite possibly the most bonkers contract ever handed out. It was just pure happenstance, I think. Just look at what happened with the other big Boras clients this past offseason.

 

When it's all said and done, the Sox are probably better off they didn't retain Bogey. Out of the big 3, it was Betts and Devers they really needed to keep.

[moonslav59]

I think there's a plausible argument that Bogaerts would have stayed with the Sox for the 6/162 he was finally offered by them, if they went to him around the time Story was signed.

 

The main reason I think this is Story's contract of 6/140. When we signed Story we did some statistical comparisons, and Story was just slightly behind Bogaerts in fWAR per games played. Very close. A 6/162 offer would have represented 15% more than Story got.

 

Also, even though Boras was Bogey's agent, Bogey's previous extension was clearly a team-friendly one.

 

Finally, Bogey seemed to really like playing for the Sox.

 

No one will ever know if the 6/162 would have gotten it done, but at the time that would have been a very legit offer.

 

The contract Bogey got was quite possibly the most bonkers contract ever handed out. It was just pure happenstance, I think. Just look at what happened with the other big Boras clients this past offseason.

 

When it's all said and done, the Sox are probably better off they didn't retain Bogey. Out of the big 3, it was Betts and Devers they really needed to keep.

 

I'm highly skeptical about him ever taking that $162M/6, if offered even way back when, but I won't disagree with the term plausible you used.

 

I agree that he took a discount on the first extension and having BorA$$ as his agent tells a story, in itself. I think he was looking for his due and big payday, and the

Sox knew that all along, too. Personally, I doubt he's have taken $180M/6 and maybe even $200M/7, but we will never know.

 

Seeing what he got, makes me think he knew he could get more... maybe not all he ended up getting, but more than $200M/7, and to me, certainly more than $162M/6.

Edited August 25, 2024 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

We can be pretty sure the two parties were never close enough to get the deal done. That's about it.

 

For argument's sake, let's say the agreed on $210M/7. He's going to be 32 in a couple months, and is showing some signs of decline or injury. He may be moves to another position in the next year or two. Is it clear he will earn $30M a year x 5 more years?

 

 

in any event to rush out and sign Story as a replacement was an asinine move and has backfired totally so far

[moonslav59]

in any event to rush out and sign Story as a replacement was an asinine move and has backfired totally so far

 

I agree with the backfire part.

 

A keystone combo of healthy Bogey and Story would have been buttah.

[notin]

in any event to rush out and sign Story as a replacement was an asinine move and has backfired totally so far

 

I didn’t like the signing, but the pre-emptive strike might have made sense depending on the negotiations. And Story has shown some skills the Sox sorely need. But he needs to stay on the field.

 

But kudos to your 20/20 hindsight. I assume it is because you keep bashing the Sale trade despite Sale having more health concerns than Story had…

[notin]

I agree with the backfire part.

 

A keystone combo of healthy Bogey and Story would have been buttah.

 

It hasn’t worked out, but Story did show terrific D. Something Kike made us realize the imports of at SS…

[moonslav59]

I didn’t like the signing, but the pre-emptive strike might have made sense depending on the negotiations. And Story has shown some skills the Sox sorely need. But he needs to stay on the field.

 

But kudos to your 20/20 hindsight. I assume it is because you keep bashing the Sale trade despite Sale having more health concerns than Story had…

 

Story did have some injury concerns, when we signed him, but he also had a long stretch of playing a lot and putting up solid numbers.

 

Many felt the COL home field padded his numbers, but look at these numbers:

 

Away numbers in previous 4 seasons before signing with BOS (Story) or SDP (Bogey):

 

 

.761 Story (.316 OBP/.445 SLG)

.248 41 109 (960 PAs) 50 SBs (Great numbers on D metrics)

 

.832 Bogey (.365 OBP/.467 SLG)

.289 35 116 (955 PAs) 15 SBs (Poor numbers on D metrics)

 

They were not that far apart on the road, in total value.

 

[Larry Cook]

Off season wish list! A number 1 and number 2 starter and a lefty and a righty bullpen guys!!!!! I think we are covered everywhere else

[Hugh2]

I'm highly skeptical about him ever taking that $162M/6, if offered even way back when, but I won't disagree with the term plausible you used.

 

I agree that he took a discount on the first extension and having BorA$$ as his agent tells a story, in itself. I think he was looking for his due and big payday, and the

Sox knew that all along, too. Personally, I doubt he's have taken $180M/6 and maybe even $200M/7, but we will never know.

 

Seeing what he got, makes me think he knew he could get more... maybe not all he ended up getting, but more than $200M/7, and to me, certainly more than $162M/6.

 

If I remember correctly, didn’t Bogey say he would have accepted the Story contract? Which was less than 162/6? Was Xander lying?

[Hugh2]

Max, you seem unfamiliar with the concept of signing a player to an extension before he becomes a free agent.

 

Didn’t Xander already sign an extension?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If I remember correctly, didn’t Bogey say he would have accepted the Story contract? Which was less than 162/6? Was Xander lying?

 

What Xander wouldn't accept from the Red Sox was their repugnant offer of a one-year extension.

 

Even the dumbest fans like me could immediately see through that ruse, intentionally insulting the face of the franchise Silver Slugger in his prime (along with his mega-agent), to ensure he'd leave in free agency so they wouldn't have to pay him market value... much less a San Diego overpay.

[Hugh2]

What Xander wouldn't accept from the Red Sox was their repugnant offer of a one-year extension.

 

Even the dumbest fans like me could immediately see through that ruse, intentionally insulting the face of the franchise Silver Slugger in his prime (along with his mega-agent), to ensure he'd leave in free agency so they wouldn't have to pay him market value... much less a San Diego overpay.

 

What I was trying to do was dispel the myth that the Sox were unwilling to pay Bogaerts more than Story. In the end he just got a sweet ass deal from San Diego

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What I was trying to do was dispel the myth that the Sox were unwilling to pay Bogaerts more than Story. In the end he just got a sweet ass deal from San Diego

 

Rich beyond belief, playing for a team committed to winning, in the best weather in the country...

 

... though hitting in Petco Park isn't quite like the Fenway experience.

[Bellhorn04]

What I was trying to do was dispel the myth that the Sox were unwilling to pay Bogaerts more than Story. In the end he just got a sweet ass deal from San Diego

 

It hasn't really been established as a myth.

[Hugh2]

It hasn't really been established as a myth.

 

A strong word, I was replying to a poster. But you know how it goes in here. It’s like one giant game of telephone down a rabbit hole.