Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

They’re both on the Injured List.

 

Except for Hill…

When Bieber recovers he have just turned 30 with the talent to be a CY young candidate.  Hill is…..over the hill. 
 

they’re not the same.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

When Bieber recovers he have just turned 30 with the talent to be a CY young candidate.  Hill is…..over the hill. 
 

they’re not the same.

Bieber may get back to Cy Young form, and being only 29 is nice.

His Cy Young season was his 12 start 2020 season. He placed 4th in the voting in 2019 and 7th in 2022. That's an impressive 4 year stretch:

2.91 ERA/ 2.95 FIP (149 ERA+ and 1.05 WHIP with 11Ks to 2 BB per 9)

92 GS out of maybe 110 available starts is a decent 84% mark, but not great. He's had 23 GS out of 65 in the last 2 years. This worries me to no end. 

I'm worn out looking at our long pitching IL list, every year.

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How do we view Rafaela going forward? He's had the third most PAs of all Sox players, this year, and we certainly know more about him now, than we did in March, but I think there is still enough unknown to wonder. Can he end up better than JBJ, particularly JBJ 6 year stretch of plus-plus play?

He started his career with a .625 OPS from 8/28/23 to 6/4/24 (307 PAs), but are his number since then for real?

.752 in 274 PAs

Should we consider he may end up no better than his career .686 OPS? These days, that is close to the norm, and with his OF defense, maybe that is more than needed to be an overall plus player. Of course, a .750 career OPS would be very nice, but can we expect that?

Do we discount the 32 game mid season stretch where he his .864 and consider the other stretches with more weight: .597 in first 61 games and .677 in his last 37 games?

His 2024 splits are pretty even: .694 v LHPs and .687 v RHPs, so a platoon is not indicated, as of now.

I've been talking a lot about trading Anthony or Abreu for pitching, but that is pretty much based on Rafaela being a fixture in CF for years to come. Maybe, I should reconsider that?

Rafeala has hit the rookie wall!  There is no way we should trade this guy. This guy is a future all star. 
 
I think teel has also slammed into the rookie wall as well. 
 

the amazing thing is Campbell has shown no signs of fatigue! 

[moonslav59]

I'm not for trading Rafaela.

[Duran Is The Man]

On 8/28/2024 at 12:42 PM, Maxbialystock said:

Yacht World is a tad less rosy these days.  A Yacht and/or a personal jet are pretty much the ultimate in ridiculously wealthy consumption.   I can honestly say I yearn for neither, but I'm guessing JH does simply because he is reportedly a billionaire--and that's what most of them have.  

I have two theories about JH.  One is the one everyone on talksox believes, that he's transformed himself into a skinflint, a cheapskate, possibly as a result of the 2019 collapse of the Sox when they had the biggest payroll in MLB and DD was telling John Henry he needed a lot more money to keep Mookie from the Dodgers and to replace Price and Sale as starters while continuing to pay their huge salaries.

The other theory is that, despite his net worth of maybe $4B or $5B, John Henry might have cash flow issues.  Simply stated, I have no idea how profitable the Sox and the other sports franchises JH owns are, month to month and year to year.  2020, for example, could not possibly have been profitable. 

And since then MLB has gone to a lot of trouble to streamline the game to make it more attractive to fans.  Huge changes in extra inning games with the ghost baserunner on 2b from the 10th inning on.  DH in the NL.  Pitch clocks that are enforced, ditto rules on how much lounging outside the batter's box a hitter is allowed to do.  Some say those pitch clocks have affected the durability of starting pitchers because they have less recovery time between pitches.  

Meanwhile, back in Boston the Sox are now in their 5th straight season, beginning with zero attendance in 2020, of lower attendance.  From 2003 through 2019, average Sox attendance was somewhere around 36K or 37 K.  In 2020, 0 attendance.  In 2021, 21K,  In 2022-2024, about 32.5K.   

I think a case can be made that the Sox attendance has stayed around 32K in part because of the departure of Mookie Betts.  Seriously.  In 2018 the Phillies average attendance was 27, 318, and the next year, 2019, it jumped to 33, 671, event though in both seasons, 2018 and 2019 the Phillies won-lost records were right around 81-81 with no hope of the postseason.  What changed was that the Phillies signed Bryce Harper after the 2018 season.  This year, 2024, with good seasons last year and the year before, plus Trea Turner at SS and Kyle Schwarber at DH, the Phillies attendance is an insane 41,497, 3d highest in MLB.  

On the other hand, the Dodgers got no bump when they added Mookie.  In 2019 their attendance was 49,065.  This year it's 48,270--but still by far the highest in MLB.  Yankees are 2d with 41,826.  

Back to John Henry.  He is not a novice at owning baseball teams because he was the Marlins owner before he owned the Sox and a minor league club owner before he owned the Marlins.   First he made a fortune in commodities, and now has done the same with sports franchises.  He bought the Sox for $660M, and now they are worth $4B or $5B, but that doesn't mean he can't have a cash crunch.  

 

he's a ******** and i wish he would sell out to an owner that actually gives a damn about winning rather than his yachts or growing Sports Empire.

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bieber may get back to Cy Young form, and being only 29 is nice.

His Cy Young season was his 12 start 2020 season. He placed 4th in the voting in 2019 and 7th in 2022. That's an impressive 4 year stretch:

2.91 ERA/ 2.95 FIP (149 ERA+ and 1.05 WHIP with 11Ks to 2 BB per 9)

92 GS out of maybe 110 available starts is a decent 84% mark, but not great. He's had 23 GS out of 65 in the last 2 years. This worries me to no end. 

I'm worn out looking at our long pitching IL list, every year.

If your problem is pitching injuries, Shane Bieber is not a solution.  
 

Different story if your problem is an overabundance of healthy and talented pitchers.  But sadly that’s not where the Sox are at right now…

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

If your problem is pitching injuries, Shane Bieber is not a solution.  
 

Different story if your problem is an overabundance of healthy and talented pitchers.  But sadly that’s not where the Sox are at right now…

It's reaching the point that if your problem is pitching injuries, you really need another sport to follow...

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Rafeala has hit the rookie wall!  There is no way we should trade this guy. This guy is a future all star. 
 
I think teel has also slammed into the rookie wall as well. 
 

the amazing thing is Campbell has shown no signs of fatigue! 

I'm not sure a bad 6 game stretch is hitting the wall. It's not like the rest of the offense was raking over the past 6 games either. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's reaching the point that if your problem is pitching injuries, you really need another sport to follow...

So you think the Sox should ignore significant injury histories when going all in for starting pitching?  Jacob deGrom’s agent agrees.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

So you think the Sox should ignore significant injury histories when going all in for starting pitching?  Jacob deGrom’s agent agrees.

No, I just saw an opening for a bit of sardonic humor, to be perfectly honest...

[Randy Red Sox]

On 8/28/2024 at 1:18 PM, moonslav59 said:

Hendriks, Fulmer, Paxton, plus a bunch of pitchers coming off long and recent injury histories like Hill, Hill, kluber, Richards, Hill, Nate, Hill, Hill, Hill...

Watch for Hill to be back next August after his kid's LL season is over.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If your problem is pitching injuries, Shane Bieber is not a solution.  
 

Different story if your problem is an overabundance of healthy and talented pitchers.  But sadly that’s not where the Sox are at right now…

we certainly don't need a 30 yr old SP who won't pitch till the 2nd half next year

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we certainly don't need a 30 yr old SP who won't pitch till the 2nd half next year

This team won't be fully formed in April. It's still going to be a work in progress next season with the Quality Quartet coming up at different points in the year. I think Breslow has to set his sights on 2026 if I'm being honest. 

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we certainly don't need a 30 yr old SP who won't pitch till the 2nd half next year

That’s what Giolito probably is…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This team won't be fully formed in April. It's still going to be a work in progress next season with the Quality Quartet coming up at different points in the year. I think Breslow has to set his sights on 2026 if I'm being honest. 

But what will he be looking for through that scope? The postseason? A pennant? A ring? Banners, plural?

Yes to any of these questions requires talent on the mound -- whenever that rebuild begins.

Don't wait until the position players are all good again before paying for good pitching. Top of the rotation starting pitchers are never wasted -- for so many reasons posted here in the past.

[moonslav59]

We need pitchers ready for day one, or I'm with MVP: we might as well just plan for 2026.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But what will he be looking for through that scope? The postseason? A pennant? A ring? Banners, plural?

Yes to any of these questions requires talent on the mound -- whenever that rebuild begins.

Don't wait until the position players are all good again before paying for good pitching. Top of the rotation starting pitchers are never wasted -- for so many reasons posted here in the past.

My point is that it doesn't really matter if Beiber isn't ready on April 1 since I don't think the team will be a postseason team next year. Beiber also may need half a year to get back to full health. Sign him and hope that he's 100% for 2026 when the team is finally ready to compete.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We need pitchers ready for day one, or I'm with MVP: we might as well just plan for 2026.

Sam Kennedy is already working on how to tell us they need to kick the can down the road just one more time.  

[notin]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This team won't be fully formed in April. It's still going to be a work in progress next season with the Quality Quartet coming up at different points in the year. I think Breslow has to set his sights on 2026 if I'm being honest. 

That would be incredibly stupid.

This team was doing very well until the inexperienced starting pitching wore out and the lack of depth was exposed.  And yet despite that, they’re still in the postseason hunt as September approaches.  Why not fix what isn’t working now?  Not like any of the top prospects fill their needs anyway.  I see no reason for the procrastination…

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sam Kennedy is already working on how to tell us they need to kick the can down the road just one more time.  

And season ticket holders should send the same message to him…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My point is that it doesn't really matter if Beiber isn't ready on April 1 since I don't think the team will be a postseason team next year. Beiber also may need half a year to get back to full health. Sign him and hope that he's 100% for 2026 when the team is finally ready to compete.

The Sox are competing NOW.  Why won’t they be able to next season?

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox are competing NOW.  Why won’t they be able to next season?

I'm sure they can compete again next year just like they're doing this year.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm sure they can compete again next year just like they're doing this year.

Nailed it. 

Apparently being mildly in the race near the end of August is now called "competitive."

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox are competing NOW.  Why won’t they be able to next season?

Red Sox '23: 69-65

Red Sox '24: 69-65

The song remains the same. Sox are on a 2-6 skid. Maybe they'll be at .500 this year, but they are pretenders and not contenders. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

And season ticket holders should send the same message to him…

And single ticket buyers like me...

... but they don't care about procrastinators like me, who are only waiting to pay to watch big leaguers in person when the Red Sox pay for more big leaguers to play for them.

[Behindenemylines]

On 8/26/2024 at 11:21 AM, mvp 78 said:

Before this weekend, I wasn't ready for this thread. I think I'm there now.

The pitching needs a massive overhaul. Pivetta is out and Giolito will be in. What other changes could we expect? 

Bello - ceiling of midrotation guy

Houck - I'm not a big believer in him, but he's another midrotation that can have great stretches

Crawford - backend starter

Giolito - innings eater

Criswell - backend starter

Whitlock - meant for the pen

Priester/Fitts - prospect question marks

I think they'd be better off adding two more starters via FA and dealing Crawford or Houck. Houck has decent trade value so they could get something interesting in return. FA/FA/Gio/Bello/Crawford with Criswell and Whitlock in the pen. Criswell could be a swing guy that pitches bulk innings. I'd never have Whitlock throw more than 2 innings in a row again. This helps both the rotation AND the bullpen that ran out of juice at the end of the year.  

Can't see trading Houck unless it's part of a package to get a true number one. If the Sox are serious about contending in 2025 then a top of the rotation starteris a must. A true number one. It could come in the form of a trade or finally getting seriously involved in the FA market. Giolito is coming back after missing all of 2024 so you don't know what you are going to get. Agree with Bello being a middle of the rotation guy. He sure looked good this week against Toronto. Remember the Sox have him locked into a good contract if he pitches more like he did this week. Crawford would be a good bottom of the rotation piece, and I agree that Whitlock should never pitch more then two innings and Criswell a swing guy. The guys with the Woo Sox are number 7 and 8 starters . If we see a lot of them, the 2025 will be another long season.

 

[notin]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Red Sox '23: 69-65

Red Sox '24: 69-65

The song remains the same. Sox are on a 2-6 skid. Maybe they'll be at .500 this year, but they are pretenders and not contenders. 

That doesn’t explain why you think they’re two years away.  If the biggest issue is pitching, what’s this fix that’s going to hit in 2026?  They don’t even have any major money coming off the books before then.  Not that Henry would re-invest it anyway.

 

 

[notin]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Nailed it. 

Apparently being mildly in the race near the end of August is now called "competitive."

In a sport where teams almost always all win between 40% and 60% of their games, it is.  At 69-65, are the Sox in the race or not?  Same record the Diamondbacks had last year, FYI

And waiting until 2026 would be stupid. What happens then to change the pitching situation?  Considering that the Sox could have been MUCH better this year had they simply not traded Sale, one might consider some evidence of how close they really are.  As opposed to whining about the Sale trade and attaching meaningless numbers to the current staff to make up excuses for procrastinating.  “Oh well.  We don’t have a true number 2.”  That comment alone is a true number 2.

 

[Bellhorn04]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

That doesn’t explain why you think they’re two years away.  If the biggest issue is pitching, what’s this fix that’s going to hit in 2026?  They don’t even have any major money coming off the books before then.  Not that Henry would re-invest it anyway.

 

 

I think the premise is that the Fab Four will really be ready in 2026.  Then the team will be in window and will be compelled to improve the pitching. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

In a sport where teams almost always all win between 40% and 60% of their games, it is.  At 69-65, are the Sox in the race or not?  Same record the Diamondbacks had last year, FYI

And waiting until 2026 would be stupid. What happens then to change the pitching situation?  Considering that the Sox could have been MUCH better this year had they simply not traded Sale, one might consider some evidence of how close they really are.  As opposed to whining about the Sale trade and attaching meaningless numbers to the current staff to make up excuses for procrastinating.  “Oh well.  We don’t have a true number 2.”  That comment alone is a true number 2.

 

I don't think anyone is saying it isn't stupid.  We're just trying to think like the Sox owners and brain trust are thinking.  That probably does make us stupid, admittedly.