A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[vegasbob]

Since May 3st, the Sox have the second best OPS (.819) and wOBA (.352) to the NYM.

1.030 Devers

.979 Duran

.973 Valdez (AAA)

.946 O'Neill

.825 Rafaela

.806 Smith

.803 Refsnyder

.794 Romy

.780 Wong

.718 Abreu

.702 Hamilton

.702 Yoshida

.628 Westbrook

.402 McGuire

 

ERA- since May 31

43 Booser

65 Kelly

68 Jansen

75 Wink

79 Crawford

88 Criswell (do NOT demote him to the pen)

89 Houck

 

100 Keller

101 Pivetta

 

113 Anderson

146 Bello

149 Horn

153 Weissert

186 Bernardino (What happened?)

 

 

Bernardino stopped throwing strikes. His LH sweeper is too wide to induce swings by LH hitters. When he comes back with a FB, he doesn't have enough velocity to get it by.

[vegasbob]

You have no peer in bombarding us with good stats to make a point. I notice that Casas appears to be on the mend and is swinging at real pitches--and could return next month. I'm the one who kept saying he might not return this season because his injury is so unusual and because it happened while simply swinging the bat.

 

Anyway, your stats on pitching, hitting and W-L records are enlightening.

 

Amazing that we went 27-18, but including only 3-4 vs the two worst records on the list--CWS/COLO

[moonslav59]

Amazing that we went 27-18, but including only 3-4 vs the two worst records on the list--CWS/COLO

 

and a sweep by the Dodgers. We were 24-11 vs all others, including some very good teams!

[moonslav59]

Bernardino stopped throwing strikes. His LH sweeper is too wide to induce swings by LH hitters. When he comes back with a FB, he doesn't have enough velocity to get it by.

 

He was pretty good, last year and excellent for the first month or two after his call-up.

 

It seems like something is wrong. I doubt about a year of pitching well was all luck.

[moonslav59]

Danny Jansen bats RH'd but hits better vs RHPs (.747) than LHPs (.697.) No worries, as Wong is pretty close to being the same ve RHPs (.746) as LHPs (.667) career.

 

Jansen v LHPs since 2022: .773.

 

Jansen ranks as such from 2022-2024 among catchers:

14th in fWAR (5.1)

7th in C OPS .776 (Wong is 1th at .737)

6th in SLG .456 (just .001 below Realmuto and .003 below S Perez.)

 

Looks like a solid addition.

 

[notin]

Bernardino stopped throwing strikes. His LH sweeper is too wide to induce swings by LH hitters. When he comes back with a FB, he doesn't have enough velocity to get it by.

 

In my eyes, Bernardino is the #3 lefty in the bullpen. But Cora either still has faith in him or lacks my faith in Bailey Horn…

[moonslav59]

In my eyes, Bernardino is the #3 lefty in the bullpen. But Cora either still has faith in him or lacks my faith in Bailey Horn…

 

Bernardino might need a demotion to "work things out," but who do we call up?

 

Keller, Speas or Wingenter?

 

Or add Luetge or Penrod to the 40?

 

We need to trade or DFA McGuire to make room for Jansen, already. (McGuire has no options. Maybe a fake IL stint?)

[notin]

Bernardino might need a demotion to "work things out," but who do we call up?

 

Keller, Speas or Wingenter?

 

Or add Luetge or Penrod to the 40?

 

We need to trade or DFA McGuire to make room for Jansen, already. (McGuire has no options. Maybe a fake IL stint?)

 

Unless it’s a 60 day IL stint, it didn’t open up a spot on the 40 man roster.

 

They could push Brandon Walter to the 60 day IL…

[Larry Cook]

Send Rony down and move Wong to first base

[moonslav59]

Unless it’s a 60 day IL stint, it didn’t open up a spot on the 40 man roster.

 

They could push Brandon Walter to the 60 day IL…

 

We have enough players we can DFA to make room for McGuire on an IL stint.

[Nick]

That was catchable ball by O'Neill.

 

Had Rafaela been in CF, Duran would have made the catch.

 

Really need a power right handed bat at DH.

 

f*** Story for getting hurt.

[moonslav59]

That was catchable ball by O'Neill.

 

Had Rafaela been in CF, Duran would have made the catch.

 

Really need a power right handed bat at DH.

 

f*** Story for getting hurt.

 

A good fielding, RH'd bat for SS would improve the balance of our line-up and defense- both at middle IF and OF.

 

It would greatly strengthen our bench as we'd have O'Neill, Abreu and Ref to play corner OF and some DH. It would actually allow us to trade Abreu for something very nice.

[Bellhorn04]

ERA by month:

 

2.62

4.12

4.38

4.91

 

Unraveling.

[Randy Red Sox]

ERA by month:

 

2.62

4.12

4.38

4.91

 

Unraveling.

 

was to be expected

[Larry Cook]

ERA by month:

 

2.62

4.12

4.38

4.91

 

Unraveling.

 

In my opinion, a lack of depth, numerous injuries and starters unable to get through 6 innings is driving this.

 

This is an excellent reason we need to be sellers at the deadline. August and September are going to be uglier than a Steinbrenner family reunion!

 

Houck and Crawford are approaching innings max! Big maple is small pine at best!!!

 

But we unload Jansen, o’Neil, and pivetta and that should be 5 decent relievers that are somewhat close to ready and can add depth for 2025!

[moonslav59]

ERA by month:

 

2.62

4.12

4.38

4.91

 

Unraveling.

 

Our starters hit the wall, weeks ago.

Our pen has been hurt by injury, overuse, and perhaps some luck running out.

 

Last 2 weeks have gotten even worse. OPS Against:

 

SP

1.267 Crawford (2GS)

.989 Houck (1)

.864 Pivetta (2)

.788 Bello (3)

.490 Criswell (1GS)

 

Pen

1.250 Anderson (demotion time)

1.183 Kelly

1.180 Bernardino

1.148 Jansen

1.089 Horn

.917 Wink

 

.683 Weissert

.536 Booser

 

We need a solid SP'er and 3 RP'ers. (I'm not counting Paxton.)

[moonslav59]

See ya, Chase and Reese.

 

Jansen is a better hitter than Reese, and I think he's okay on D.

The metrics show he's about average on pitch-framing (+2 in '23 and -1 in '24)

From 2022-2024, Jansen is second best in all MLB at Blocking (+11). In the same timeframe, he was -4 in throwing.

 

Anyone can do what Chase could not do.

 

[moonslav59]

So, Paxton might push Pivetta or Criswell to the pen- helping it, a little. (Maybe Crawford needs a breather.)

 

Jansen improves our back-up catching and slightly helps our offense vs LHPs.

 

Yohan Ramirez can't be much worse than Anderson, but he is no savior.

 

We need 2-3 more solid RP'ers, of another solid SP'er and 1-3 more RP'ers.

 

Let's go Brez.

 

We can afford to lose any of these players/prospects without putting a big dent in our future:

 

Vadlez

Yorke

Lugo

Meidroth

Castro

Jordan

 

Trading Fitts, Sandlin or other prospects pitchers is okay, if we get a controllable, upgrade pitcher in return.

 

Trading Grissom or ICampbell would be selling low.

 

[Old Red]

So, Paxton might push Pivetta or Criswell to the pen- helping it, a little. (Maybe Crawford needs a breather.)

 

Jansen improves our back-up catching and slightly helps our offense vs LHPs.

 

Yohan Ramirez can't be much worse than Anderson, but he is no savior.

 

We need 2-3 more solid RP'ers, of another solid SP'er and 1-3 more RP'ers.

 

Let's go Brez.

 

We can afford to lose any of these players/prospects without putting a big dent in our future:

 

Vadlez

Yorke

Lugo

Meidroth

Castro

Jordan

 

Trading Fitts, Sandlin or other prospects pitchers is okay, if we get a controllable, upgrade pitcher in return.

 

Trading Grissom or ICampbell would be selling low.

 

 

Paxton is taking Criswell’s spot in the rotation, and no sight of Criswell in the projected starting rotation going into the Texas series. Pivetta is not going to the BP.

[moonslav59]

Y Ramirez is out of options, so he will be joining the 26.

[Old Red]

Y Ramirez is out of options, so he will be joining the 26.

 

Ya hoo!

[dgalehouse]

Ramirez hasn't pitched a lot of innings this year, so at least he is a relatively fresh arm.

[moonslav59]

Top OPS in MLB (200+ PAs) 282 players over 200 PAs (about 9 per team)

 

The Top Tier

1. Judge 1.131

2. Ohtani 1.051

3. Soto 1.032

4. Ozuna .981

5. Tucker .979 (262 PAs DNQ for official rankings)

6. Whitt .976

7. Devers .958

8. Rooker .954

9. Harper .933

10. Henderson .933

11. O'Neill .926 (10th out of qualifying players)

19. Betts .892

26. Refsnyder .866

27. Guerrero .865

29. Duran .860

44. Abreu .819

45. Schwarber .817

54. Wong .801

66. JD Martinez .785

 

Middle Tier starts at .755

(Romy is at .741 with just 103 PAs)

129. Renfroe .722

132. Yoshida .721

 

***the 135th player is at .716*** (More or less the MLB mean.

139. J Turner .714

142. T Pham .713

147. DHam .711

165. DeJong .697

169. Rafaela .694

179. Smith .688

 

Bottom Third:

182. Bogey .688

193. Dubon .678

200. Jansen .671

215. Verdugo .662

 

 

[moonslav59]

OPS since May 31st: (140+ PAs)

8. O'Neill 1.019

9. Devers 1.013

13. Duran .982

63. Rafaela .813

71. Smith .798

83. Wong .776

119. DHam .698

 

Under 140 PAs

.973 Valdez 83

.803 Refsnyder 113

.794 Romy 64

.759 Abreu 93

.711 Yoshida 132

 

[moonslav59]

If there ever was a time to go on a good 15 game stretch, it is now. We play only teams that are closest to us in the WC race:

 

6 v TEX

3 v HOU

3 v SEA

3 v KCR

 

Then, it's on to BAL & HOU, again.

 

I'm not predicting a winning stretch, but it would help to go 9-6, or 8-7 as long as we take 2 or 3 from KCR.

[Nick]

OPS since May 31st: (140+ PAs)

8. O'Neill 1.019

9. Devers 1.013

13. Duran .982

63. Rafaela .813

71. Smith .798

83. Wong .776

119. DHam .698

 

Under 140 PAs

.973 Valdez 83

.803 Refsnyder 113

.794 Romy 64

.759 Abreu 93

.711 Yoshida 132

 

Even without Casas and another right handed bat besides O'Neill, our offense is fine and will be fine in the future.

 

Either via trade or through FA, we need starting pitching. It just can't be that "we'll be okay we have Giolito and Whitlock coming back".

 

We need to trade out prospects for cost controlled starting pitching.

 

I'd love to have DD right now. Just right now. Just until Tuesday's deadline.

 

[/b]

[moonslav59]

Even without Casas and another right handed bat besides O'Neill, our offense is fine and will be fine in the future.

 

Either via trade or through FA, we need starting pitching. It just can't be that "we'll be okay we have Giolito and Whitlock coming back".

 

We need to trade out prospects for cost controlled starting pitching.

 

I'd love to have DD right now. Just right now. Just until Tuesday's deadline.

 

[/b]

 

You'd need JH to cooperate with DD, to make that work.

 

Yes, we do need a RH bat, and will need two, next year as O'Neill reaches free agency.

 

Ideally, O'Neill would be the DH and Abreu/Ref would platoon RF (Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF.) I wonder if Duran might be better in RF than Ref and maybe even Abreu. His arm seems okay.

 

The issue is Yoshida, and he might be for a couple more years. If O'Neill or Ref (platoon) do not play DH, where do we add the RH bat?

 

With Story, Mayer (LHB) and a DHam/Romy/Grissom platoon as back up, I'm not sure adding a middle IF big bat is likely, and it would be very costly.

 

Assuming Casas returns to form, he will not be platooned, so a RHB 1Bman makes little sense for 2025>>>.

 

Perhaps the best choice, in theory would be to trade Abreu for an Abreu clone who bats RH'd.

 

Anthony bats LH'd. (Campbell might play LF and bats RH'd.)

 

In 2025, maybe bring back O'Neill and trade Abreu for a RH'd RF'er with the same control and skills as Abreu. Our offense would be set, as long as one from Mayer and Story produce. Those are not long odds.

 

Add Teel to the catching tandem, and we look sweet on O, and not bad on D:

 

2025:

C: R Wong & L Teel

1B: L Casas (Romy)

2B: R Story & L DHam/R Romy-Grissom

SS: L Mayer (Story & DHam-Romy)

3B: L Devers (Romy)

LF: R O'Neill & R Refsnyder(L Duran)

CF: R Rafaela & L Anthony (L Duran)

RF: L Duran & RHB return for Abreu

DH: L Yoshida (R Refsnyder/ R O'Neill)

 

All 3 rookies will not be on the 26 in April, but by August they very well could be.

 

Our issue is and always has been pitching. The only times it wasn't was 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

[jgar658]

 

 

Our issue is and always has been pitching. The only times it wasn't was 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

[/b]

 

This is what I would do:

 

Put Pivetta in the BP. Keep Criswell in the rotation.

Pivetta in the BP can be formidable and pitch up to three four innings every so often and that would rest the tired BP.

 

I would not trade Abreu as he is quite young and could be a diamond in the rough. He could blossomed just like Duran has.

[moonslav59]

Our issue is and always has been pitching. The only times it wasn't was 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

[/b]

 

This is what I would do:

 

Put Pivetta in the BP. Keep Criswell in the rotation.

Pivetta in the BP can be formidable and pitch up to three four innings every so often and that would rest the tired BP.

 

I would not trade Abreu as he is quite young and could be a diamond in the rough. He could blossomed just like Duran has.

 

I'd like to see Criswell stay in the rotation, too, even if it means a 6 man rotation.

 

I am not giving up on Abreu by saying we should trade him. I love the guy.

 

Why would you not want an exact replica of Abreu, but one who bats RH'd?

 

Same years of control.

Same upside potential.

Same skills on O and D.

Just someone with the same L-R splits, but in reverse.

[jgar658]

Same years of control.

Same upside potential.

Same skills on O and D.

Just someone with the same L-R splits, but in reverse.[/b]

 

Who would that be?

I guess there are quite a few. Who is available?

That would open the spot for the right handed bat.