A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Call up the freshest arm from Triple A and get him to Coors (it's not like the Sox haven't done this before, when guys were down in the pen).

 

Microsoft is mostly fixed, so transportation shouldn't be an issue; they don't need to use the Oregon Trail.

 

Good thing, otherwise they might die from dysentery…

[mvp 78]

Statistically, the Sox have the worst defense in the entire history of baseball.

 

But stats are funny and even malleable. I prefer lying, cheating, unreliable snapshots. I think the unearned runs are fewer and farther between since about 12 June.

 

How so? Sox are tied for 9th in MLB in DRS.

[Old Red]

How so? Sox are tied for 9th in MLB in DRS.

 

Once again overall yes, but I judge the D, which has gotten better on a game by game basis.

[illinoisredsox]

Today @ 3:15 it's Pivetta vs Quantrill. Gotta give the Sox the edge.

 

Then Thursday off followed by 3 vs the Yankees and 3 vs Mariners at the Fens. By the end of those 6 games, we will know one very important thing--whether or not JH and his CBO support this Sox team.

 

In JH's defense, Breslow's 2 biggest offseason deals, Sale and Giolito, almost destroyed this 2024 Sox team by giving away a great starter and bringing in a useless one to the tune of $55M.

 

In Breslow's defense, he insisted on a new pitching coach, Bailey, who has transformed the Sox pitching staff, which is still better than the overpaid 2018 and 2019 staffs.

 

The Mariners series won’t be factor in any buy/sell decisions. With the deadline 6pm Eastern on the 30th, only Monday’s game would provide a data point. It’s today and the Yankee series for all practical purposes.

[moonslav59]

Teams out of it (sellers)

-29.5 CWS

-16.5 MIA

-16.0 COL

-15.0 OAK

-11.5 LAA

-10.0 TOR

 

Borderline

-6.0 DET

-5.5 WSH

-5.0 SFG

-4.5 TBR (always a possible seller)

 

Maybe...

-4.5 CIN

-4.5 CHC

 

Not likely sellers:

-3.5 SEA (Tied with HOU for ALW)

-6.5 TEX (-3.0 ALW)

-1.5 PIT

[Old Red]

The Mariners series won’t be factor in any buy/sell decisions. With the deadline 6pm Eastern on the 30th, only Monday’s game would provide a data point. It’s today and the Yankee series for all practical purposes.

 

For all practical purposes if the decision hasn’t been made yet then still looking for that third option in the fork in the road is not a good sign for now, or for things to come.

[dgalehouse]

Red Sox management should know by now exactly what they want to do at the deadline. If their decision is based on how the team does in the next four games, they should not be in a management position.

[Maxbialystock]

How so? Sox are tied for 9th in MLB in DRS.

 

My first point was an exaggeration intended for dramatic effect.

 

The rest of that post was intended to say that since June 12 the Sox have done pretty well and that part of that is fewer errors and/or disastrous errors.

 

I am no expert, but I think the outfield defense is probably above average, especially when it's Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Abreu in RF. But Duran's a pretty good centerfielder too. However, righty bat Refsnyder's DWAR is -0.8, which is awful. O'Neill's is -0.2.

 

I think both catchers are pretty good behind the plate, but less good throwing baserunners out.

 

The infield has been the problem, but I think less of one with Devers @ 3b, Rafaela @SS, Hamilton @ 2b, and Gonzalez @ 1b. I include Devers in the "good" list because of his bat and the decision to keep him at 3b, where his DWAR is -0.6.

[Maxbialystock]

We are top 10 on O, top 10 in pitching, bottom 10 on defense and top 10 on baserunning. Why cant we be a playoff team?

 

Agree. Plus--and not that it's important--the W-L record is decent because the Sox are well within reach of a wild card slot.

[mvp 78]

My first point was an exaggeration intended for dramatic effect.

 

The rest of that post was intended to say that since June 12 the Sox have done pretty well and that part of that is fewer errors and/or disastrous errors.

 

I am no expert, but I think the outfield defense is probably above average, especially when it's Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Abreu in RF. But Duran's a pretty good centerfielder too. However, righty bat Refsnyder's DWAR is -0.8, which is awful. O'Neill's is -0.2.

 

I think both catchers are pretty good behind the plate, but less good throwing baserunners out.

 

The infield has been the problem, but I think less of one with Devers @ 3b, Rafaela @SS, Hamilton @ 2b, and Gonzalez @ 1b. I include Devers in the "good" list because of his bat and the decision to keep him at 3b, where his DWAR is -0.6.

 

On the catching, McGuire has always been bad with the running game. Wong was good last season, but had some arm issues this Spring, I believe he's been getting better recently. Wong's blocking and framing is towards the bottom of the league and he's really going to be a backup catcher long term. McGuire is above average with his framing, but if he's not hitting he's going to be sent down the river.

[moonslav59]

My first point was an exaggeration intended for dramatic effect.

 

The rest of that post was intended to say that since June 12 the Sox have done pretty well and that part of that is fewer errors and/or disastrous errors.

 

I am no expert, but I think the outfield defense is probably above average, especially when it's Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Abreu in RF. But Duran's a pretty good centerfielder too. However, righty bat Refsnyder's DWAR is -0.8, which is awful. O'Neill's is -0.2.

 

I think both catchers are pretty good behind the plate, but less good throwing baserunners out.

 

The infield has been the problem, but I think less of one with Devers @ 3b, Rafaela @SS, Hamilton @ 2b, and Gonzalez @ 1b. I include Devers in the "good" list because of his bat and the decision to keep him at 3b, where his DWAR is -0.6.

 

Our defense has hurt the team, a lot, for sure.

 

Here is a look at runs scored vs earned runs allowed:

+159 PHI 406-347

+ 146 NYY 510-364

+131 LAD 507-376

+127 BAL 496-369

+106 CLE 469-363

+105 BOS 473-368

+102 KCR 471-369

+100 MIL 484-374

 

+80 ATL 418-338

+78 MIN 484-406

+68 HOU 470-402

+64 NYM 481-417

+48 ARI 501-453

+42 SEA 389-347

 

6th best differential (just 1 from 5th best), not counting unearned runs allowed vs 10th best overall record in MLB.

 

It's not our baserunning. It's not our offense. It's not our pitching, until recently.

 

It's the D that is mainly responsible for our lower place in the standings.

 

[moonslav59]

On the catching, McGuire has always been bad with the running game. Wong was good last season, but had some arm issues this Spring, I believe he's been getting better recently. Wong's blocking and framing is towards the bottom of the league and he's really going to be a backup catcher long term. McGuire is above average with his framing, but if he's not hitting he's going to be sent down the river.

 

They both have done pretty well with getting the most from the pitching staff.

 

2022-2024 Statcast

 

Throwing (63 catchers qualify)

13. Wong +4 (top 25%)

31. McGuire +1 (about average)

 

Blocking: (72 catchers)

44. McGuire -3

70. Wong -20

 

No 3 year period combined is offered

Framing:

2022: McGuire 15th out of 60, Wong N/A.

2023: McGuire 32nd, Wong 52ns out of 63

2024: McGuire 22nd, Wong 58th out of 59

Looks like Wong is near worst and McGuire better than average, here.

[mvp 78]

If the defense is bringing the team down, is it any wonder? The team's part owner threw out advanced statistics in the offseason claiming that the Sox would have been a playoff team with an even average defense last year.

[mvp 78]

If you can't block or frame, how are you getting the most out of your pitchers?

[moonslav59]

Sox & Cora have discussed contract extension:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/red-sox-alex-cora-have-recently-discussed-contract-extension.html

[moonslav59]

If you can't block or frame, how are you getting the most out of your pitchers?

 

You know my position on this.

 

1. Calling the right pitches.

2. Getting your pitcher in his comfort zone.

3. Providing a stationary target with your glove.

4. Being able to calm a pitcher down, when rattled.

5. Being a pitcher's binky.

 

Yes, those other things matter, and maybe more than this, but many pitchers credit who is catching them with their success, and might not be all that good at blocking, framing or throwing.

[Larry Cook]

Our defense has hurt the team, a lot, for sure.

 

Here is a look at runs scored vs earned runs allowed:

+159 PHI 406-347

+ 146 NYY 510-364

+131 LAD 507-376

+127 BAL 496-369

+106 CLE 469-363

+105 BOS 473-368

+102 KCR 471-369

+100 MIL 484-374

 

+80 ATL 418-338

+78 MIN 484-406

+68 HOU 470-402

+64 NYM 481-417

+48 ARI 501-453

+42 SEA 389-347

 

6th best differential (just 1 from 5th best), not counting unearned runs allowed vs 10th best overall record in MLB.

 

It's not our baserunning. It's not our offense. It's not our pitching, until recently.

 

It's the D that is mainly responsible for our lower place in the standings.

 

 

Isn’t Atlanta looking for a right handed outfield bat????

[moonslav59]

Isn’t Atlanta looking for a right handed outfield bat????

 

IDK or care.

[mvp 78]

Isn’t Atlanta looking for a right handed outfield bat????

 

Package O'Neill and Grissom for Sale.

[moonslav59]

Package O'Neill and Grissom for Sale.

 

LOL. Good one!

[dgalehouse]

Interesting. Apparently, Quantrill mocked McGuire about the " masturbation incident" during today's game. Stay tuned.

[moonslav59]

It would be easy to think we should throw in the towel on 2024, after a game and road trip like this one, but there is no great team in the AL, and even NYY & BAL look beatable.

 

I still hope we buy, but I'd rather see us sell than do nothing of "play it safe" by halfway buying.

 

I guess trading some players that are not part of our long term plans to try and improve our 2024 a little bit, would not be horrible, but I kinda hope the "pick a lane" comment was not a sham, too.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox are looking for relievers, a starter and a right-handed bat. They are not selling. One game does not change anything.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are looking for relievers, a starter and a right-handed bat. They are not selling. One game does not change anything.

 

I hope not, but doing nothing or very little is a real possibility.

 

I'd rather sell on Jansen, O'Neill & Pivetta to improve our chances in the next few years, than do next to nothing.

[moonslav59]

If we could just put it all together: the pitching from the first 6 weeks with the offense from the last few weeks/months.

 

Even with Casas on the IL, we have 9 guys over .710 and 11 over .690.

.963 Devers (1st in HRs and RBI & on pace for best OPS in career)

.891 O'Neill (20 HRs in 273 ABs)

.865 Duran (1st in XBH, TB and 22 SBs in 26 tries)

.844 Refsnyder (OBP of .389 is tops on team)

.794 Abreu (.857 v RHPs)

.794 Wong (3rd best OBP at .358)

.723 Hamilton (25 SBs in 29 attempts)

.715 Yoshida (.343 OBP is respectable)

.711 Romy (Surprisingly okay)

.697 Smith (Doing better after a horrible start to season)

.690 Rafaela (2nd in RBI)

.575 McGuire (not much good to say)

[moonslav59]

AB/HR (over 300)

 

2 in the top 10...

 

10.3 Judge

13.0 Ohtani

13.3 Ozuna

13.5 Santander

13.7 O'Neill

14.1 Rooker

14.1 Henderson

14.3 Harper

14.6 Soto

14.6 Devers

 

Not enough ABs:

13.0 Casas

17.5 Westbrook

 

[Randy Red Sox]

The Sox are looking for relievers, a starter and a right-handed bat. They are not selling. One game does not change anything.

 

we lost 2 out of 3 to one of the VERY WORST teams in all of MLB and gave up 20 runs today with 4 errors. yep-no reason to sell.

[notin]

we lost 2 out of 3 to one of the VERY WORST teams in all of MLB and gave up 20 runs today with 4 errors. yep-no reason to sell.

 

The Phillies list 2 of 3 to the A’s last week, including one game by a score of 18-3. Should the Phillies sell?

[dgalehouse]

It will be interesting to see what the Mets do at the deadline. They have turned their season around big time.

[Old Red]

I hope not, but doing nothing or very little is a real possibility.

 

I'd rather sell on Jansen, O'Neill & Pivetta to improve our chances in the next few years, than do next to nothing.

 

I would rather try to improve our chances this year 2024, and worry about 2025, and beyond after this season is over. If the chances for 2024 can be improved along with 2025, and beyond all the better, but improving the chances for 2024 are owed to all Red Sox personnel in that clubhouse IMO.